Blu-Ray Vs. DVD

[Mulciber]

Yes, the person who insists that PC prices have not dropped (the counter-point he still did not address) says I look like ass. My life is over.

this is funny, and sad

 

[Mordecaii]

And I say again you're not comparing correctly... Sure your Microwave cost you 200 then and 180 now, but I bet your new one can do a whole lot of new stuff your old one couldn't... and i bet you could get a similar microwave to the one you got back in 89 for under 100. The comparison isn't valid. As I said before, if the same HDTV (in terms of feature set and video quality) can be bought for 1/2 the price in 2 years, then more people will do so.

 

[Geeforcer]

Microvave oven? We are talking about PCs. And how can I be wrong when I gave out prices we paid? Not only are the PCs now 10x more powerful, but they are cheaper. HDTVs used cost $5000 for the cheapest model. Now you can get the same quality TV for under a grand.

Let’s assume that your line of argument is correct with regard to HDTVs (and for all I know, it might be – unlike PCs, I don’t follow HDTV prices): Top of the line set will always cost $10,000. That however will not stop the consumers from buying them, because top of the line set from 2 years ago will cost $4000 and one from 4 years ago will be $2000, etc. As technology matures, the once-exclusively high-end market cartering to early adopters will segment at a number of price points. Look at the DVD players: at one point you simply could not get one below $400. Now, you have a choice of $20 players, $50 players, $100 players, $200 players, etc. Same thing is already happening with HDTVs. Whether you had to spend $5000 a few years ago to get ANY HDTV, you now can get one for $800, $1200, $2000 – depending on how much you are willing to spend.

BTW, Walmart has Microwaves for $35. There goes you last point.

 

[DemoCoder]

You can't compare top of the line PCs from N years ago to today. That's like saying "sure, today I can buy a car that is better than a top end Ferrari, but Formula 1 cars are more expensive!"

The economics of semiconductors are well understood. JVD, why don't you stop making yourself look silly and admit your wrong. The fact is, 720p HDTVs are available at a *fraction* of the price they were years ago, and 1080p are now down to what 720p cost last year.

I can hear you now "ah, but if I buy a top of a line 90" inch TV @ 1080p, it will cost more than a 720p" Fact is, the cost of 720p and soon 1080p mid-range TVs have and will drop significantly. Case closed. Argument over. You were wrong.

As for econ101, you got it wrong again. Microeconomics states that the price will tend to the marginal cost as competitors saturate the market. Which in the electronics industry is exactly what happens. The only time it doesn't, is when monopoly power exists.

 

[PC-Engine]

And because you can build an HD-DVD HTPC for $400 doesn't mean it's mass market. Far from it actually as 99% of the PC owners out there probably don't build their own.

That's not really an issue though. I simply mentioned HTPCs because that's what I want to build. Anybody will be able to buy a bare HD DVD drive just like anybody can buy a DVD drive for their PCs whether it's a HTPC or not. You can bet that quite a lot of PC users will buy HD DVD drives if they're cheap and watch HD movies on their PCs using programs like PowerDVD or using decoder cards like the Hollywood Magic. I think PS3 with BR is nice, but in a few months this year I can get a HD DVD drive for my PC plus HD DVD movies titles.

 

[Mordecaii]

The thing is, when HD-DVD drives do come out, they'll have competition with BR. If I see a BR drive and a HD-DVD drive next to each other, I'll gladly take the BR drive (especially since it has a much bigger capacity). Plus, as has been posted elsewhere, BR was created to be writable right off the bat whereas HD-DVD wasn't. I don't know timelines, but I do know that dual layer BR discs will be produced starting in December by Panasonic. Also, HD-DVD has very little support in the computer industry... in fact, a large part of PC industry is backing BR. So again, I ask you, why would I buy a HD-DVD drive when the benefits for BR outweigh it and it has a much higher industry backing when it comes to PC's?

 

[Ty]

the 386 i bought cost me 3k when we got it and the pc i bought 2 years ago cost me 3k

Both were top of hte line models

1> You're not comparing the same capability of the PCs.
2> You're not adjusting for inflation.

Furthermore you are missing the point again!

How about cars ? they have continued to go up in price

How about the example of fast food which has gone up too

For the second time I am NOT stating that prices will fall indefinately! I am stating that there is NOT going to be an artificial floor to prices. That is EXACTLY what you are stating.

You are saying that HDTV manufacturers will ARTIFICIALLY keep their prices high because they can. The fact is (and ALL of us disagreeing with you have THOUSANDS of years of historical data on our side) that an equilibrium WILL be reached in a free market society.

Actually the only thing people here know is if you speak your mind and its not pro sony those who only want sony to succeed like you and geforce come in and bash that person.

This is a completely incoherent argument. Basic economics and Sony have little to nothing in common here in this particular discussion. What we are discussing is basic economics.

Tell me, why, when demand has been good for the PS2, has it dropped in price? Why when demand is highest during the XMas season do you NOT see a price increase?

Will prices go down ? sure

You realize this is COMPLETELY opposite of what you said earlier.

and if there is enough demand for them because of some crazy thing like what the other poster suggests then they can sell the tvs at any price (As long as they don't go higher than they are today ) and keep selling because of the demand

but there is no way to predict how fast the prices go down

Sure we can't predict how fast or necessarily how much (though I've quoted many analysts stating that LCD panels will drop by 20-30% during this year).

and for the top of the line model it will allways be expensive

Yes, but the top of the line will ALWAYS offer much more than the previous year's top of the line. But now the discussion is moving away from what originally brought me into it, basic economic theory.

 

[PC-Engine]

If I see a BR drive and a HD-DVD drive next to each other, I'll gladly take the BR drive (especially since it has a much bigger capacity).

Why would I care about capacity if I'm looking for a cheap READ ONLY drive for HD DVD movies?

Plus, as has been posted elsewhere, BR was created to be writable right off the bat whereas HD-DVD wasn't.

And they'll be much more expensive due to the fact you need a higher power laser to record. High power blue lasers for recording are more expensive than lower power ones for playback. Why do you think PS3 doesn't have a BR writer drive?

I don't know timelines, but I do know that dual layer BR discs will be produced starting in December by Panasonic.

Doesn't matter if the discs and recording drives are expensive.

HD-DVD has very little support in the computer industry... in fact, almost the entire PC industry is backing BR. So again, I ask you, why would I buy a HD-DVD drive when the benefits for BR outweigh it and it has a much higher industry backing when it comes to PC's?

Very little support? Intel and IBM back HD DVD, not to mention Toshiba and NEC are very big computer manufacturers. In fact NEC holds 30% of the DVD burner drives worlwide. If I can buy a cheap HD DVD drive later this year and HD DVD movies from WB, Paramount, and Universal later this year why would I want to wait until next year for PS3?

 

[Ty]

That's not really an issue though. I simply mentioned HTPCs because that's what I want to build.

Oh, ok. Well since mckmas8808 was talking mass market (he brought up an example of Best Buy) then I thought that is what you were responding to.

I myself am planning to purchase a nice Silverstone case for just such a project.

Anybody will be able to buy a bare HD DVD drive just like anybody can buy a DVD drive for their PCs whether it's a HTPC or not.

No argument there.

You can bet that quite a lot of PC users will buy HD DVD drives if they're cheap and watch HD movies on their PCs using programs like PowerDVD or using decoder cards like the Hollywood Magic.

Again, no argument.

I think PS3 with BR is nice, but in a few months this year I can get a HD DVD drive for my PC plus HD DVD movies titles.

Personally (and I've said this before) BR or HD-DVD in a game console is meaningless to me. The PQ is likely to be fairly mediocre at best (Cadence problems, Chroma errors, Ringing, etc.)

 

[Mordecaii]

I just wanted to add something for people arguing that HD-DVD will have the advantage when it comes to market penetration... You do realize that BD has 90% of the top consumer electronics companies (in terms of market share), which will be huge because they will be able to manufacture many more drives and be able to lower the prices on them more quickly. Also, the world's top 2 computer companies support BD. Just thought I would point this out.

 

[Andy]

I apologise if someone already said this, but I believe that while Blu-ray may be a fair expense in PS3 for Sony initially, I think considering that Blu-ray can support so many layers (up to 8 if I remember correctly) then it is likely that Sony will use Blu-ray again in PS4, but this time with a drive that supports perhaps a 4 or 8 layers BD-ROM (I believe the drive will support up to 2 layer BD-ROMs only, perhaps 4 layers after that TDK announcement, not that I feel they will ever use up to 100GB in PS3 games), in this way the cost of Blu-ray is leveraged over say 10 or more years rather than say 5-6 years!

 

[quest55720]

I just wanted to add something for people arguing that HD-DVD will have the advantage when it comes to market penetration... You do realize that BD has 90% of the top consumer electronics companies (in terms of market share), which will be huge because they will be able to manufacture many more drives and be able to lower the prices on them more quickly. Also, the world's top 2 computer companies support BD. Just thought I would point this out.

I still think that people will be much much slower going from DVD to HD than they were from VHS to DVD. A format war is only going to slow things down even more. Add to that people need to spend 1k+ on a TV to even get started. I also think that having a few PC companys on board does nothing. DVD drives have been in PCs for years and many games still don't come on DVD. Heck I pray we don't need BR discs for PC games or else I will need to have terabyte of harddrive storage if we get to that point PC gaming might be just to expensive for me.

 

[PC-Engine]

I just wanted to add something for people arguing that HD-DVD will have the advantage when it comes to market penetration... You do realize that BD has 90% of the top consumer electronics companies (in terms of market share), which will be huge because they will be able to manufacture many more drives and be able to lower the prices on them more quickly. Also, the world's top 2 computer companies support BD. Just thought I would point this out.

So how do you explain the first handful of $600 standalone DVD recorders from the top CE manufacturers vs the tens of millions of bare DVD burner drives for PCs that arrived on the market years before?

 

[Mordecaii]

Because the consumer electronics companies also make PC DVD and BR drives... companies like SONY, Panasonic, TEAC, LG, Samsung, Philips, and many others all make PC drives... in fact I'd go as far as to say that the companies supporting BD currently make at least 75% of the drives that are sold in PC's. Consumer electronics doesn't just include stand-alone recorders. Also, I've seen all kinds of posts from people saying "Just as soon as PS3 comes out I'm going to buy a HDTV"... A lot of times one technology pushes another, and I think the release of a BD player in what will be one of the world's most popular electronics devices will help push the HDTV technology into homes, especially when people hear that their games will look a lot better. I'll admit that currently HD-DVD has a more aggressive launch schedule in terms of movies being released to HD-DVD (I believe 2 or 3 movie studios are planning to do so by the end of this year, whereas I don't know of a timeline for BD), but it doesn't matter if there are movies for HD-DVD if either they can't make enough players to keep up with demand, the players are too expensive to warrant most people buying them, or consumers decide themselves to choose one format or another (in this case since if they were to choose BD because their PS3 also plays BD and they want to be able to play their movies on their PS3 or their standalone player). Of course, one format could win before it comes down to that, they could come up with a compromise, or consumers could choose HD-DVD. I'm just pointing out that PS3 having a BD player along with BD having the majority of hardware manufacturers surely helps their case.

 

[quest55720]

Because the consumer electronics companies also make PC DVD and BR drives... companies like SONY, Panasonic, TEAC, LG, Samsung, Philips, and many others all make PC drives... in fact I'd go as far as to say that the companies supporting BD currently make at least 75% of the drives that are sold in PC's. Consumer electronics doesn't just include stand-alone recorders. Also, I've seen all kinds of posts from people saying "Just as soon as PS3 comes out I'm going to buy a HDTV"... A lot of times one technology pushes another, and I think the release of a BD player in what will be one of the world's most popular electronics devices will help push the HDTV technology into homes, especially when people hear that their games will look a lot better. I'll admit that currently HD-DVD has a more aggressive launch schedule in terms of movies being released to HD-DVD (I believe 2 or 3 movie studios are planning to do so by the end of this year, whereas I don't know of a timeline for BD), but it doesn't matter if there are movies for HD-DVD if either they can't make enough players to keep up with demand, the players are too expensive to warrant most people buying them, or consumers decide themselves to choose one format or another (in this case since if they were to choose BD because their PS3 also plays BD and they want to be able to play their movies on their PS3 or their standalone player). Of course, one format could win before it comes down to that, they could come up with a compromise, or consumers could choose HD-DVD. I'm just pointing out that PS3 having a BD player along with BD having the majority of hardware manufacturers surely helps their case.

You make some valid points. We have no idea how many PS3 sony will sell next year. We have no idea if there will be massive shortages and production problems like the PS2. Also the PS3 will be facing 2 other consoles its first holiday season. Lets face it the PS2 had a damn easy first holiday season. All they had to face was a cash poor sega this time around will be more difficult. I still have a hard time believing that many people will spend over a grand on a TV and probably 30 bucks a movie to watch it on an inferior play back device such as a PS3.

 

[PC-Engine]

Because the consumer electronics companies also make PC DVD and BR drives... companies like SONY, Panasonic, TEAC, LG, Samsung, Philips, and many others all make PC drives... in fact I'd go as far as to say that the companies supporting BD currently make at least 75% of the drives that are sold in PC's. Consumer electronics doesn't just include stand-alone recorders. Also, I've seen all kinds of posts from people saying "Just as soon as PS3 comes out I'm going to buy a HDTV"... A lot of times one technology pushes another, and I think the release of a BD player in what will be one of the world's most popular electronics devices will help push the HDTV technology into homes, especially when people hear that their games will look a lot better. I'll admit that currently HD-DVD has a more aggressive launch schedule in terms of movies being released to HD-DVD (I believe 2 or 3 movie studios are planning to do so by the end of this year, whereas I don't know of a timeline for BD), but it doesn't matter if there are movies for HD-DVD if either they can't make enough players to keep up with demand, the players are too expensive to warrant most people buying them, or consumers decide themselves to choose one format or another (in this case since if they were to choose BD because their PS3 also plays BD and they want to be able to play their movies on their PS3 or their standalone player). Of course, one format could win before it comes down to that, they could come up with a compromise, or consumers could choose HD-DVD. I'm just pointing out that PS3 having a BD player along with BD having the majority of hardware manufacturers surely helps their case.

What you don't understand is volume and pricing not the number of brands out there. How many brand DVD burner drives are out there? A lot right? Well then why does NEC itself hold around 30% of the total number DVD burners installed worldwide? How come SONY and Pansonic only hold single digit percentage marketshares combined??

 

[croc hunter2]

Lets face it Toshiba and NEC are not just fighting Sony here. Matsushita, Samsung, Philips, Dell, HP, Apple, etc command massive market share not just in CE but also in PCs.

Matsushita came out the other day and basically told Toshiba to take the 0.1mm BR disk format or suffer the consequences. (will find the link if u want it)

I think Toshiba are just fighting the good fight for appearances and to get a good deal on the royalty payments etc and then when they have enough they'll withdraw. (this IMO OK, not an immutable law, don't shoot me)

As for the PS3, if they manage to get good launch numbers, i suspect they can sell upwards of 6 million PS3s in yr1. This is a very good, instant market. Studios are releasing increasing numbers of UMD movies with a much smaller userbase, 6 million would be impossible to ignore. And that 6 mil is enough to drive further markets for BR RW devices.

And i suspect the PS3 might be ok as a BR player, The CELL can decode 12 HD streams simultaneously so 1 should give it no problems, plenty of overhead for sound and HDMI output won't hurt the quality either. Even if it's not so good at 1080p output, it is likely to look significantly better than DVD.

PS3 is a great trojan horse for the BR consortium, it is pretty much guaranteed to sell in huge numbers, very quickly.

 

[London Geezer]

Lets face it Toshiba and NEC are not just fighting Sony here. Matsushita, Samsung, Philips, Dell, HP, Apple, etc command massive market share not just in CE but also in PCs.

Matsushita came out the other day and basically told Toshiba to take the 0.1mm BR disk format or suffer the consequences. (will find the link if u want it)

I think Toshiba are just fighting the good fight for appearances and to get a good deal on the royalty payments etc and then when they have enough they'll withdraw. (this IMO OK, not an immutable law, don't shoot me)

As for the PS3, if they manage to get good launch numbers, i suspect they can sell upwards of 6 million PS3s in yr1. This is a very good, instant market. Studios are releasing increasing numbers of UMD movies with a much smaller userbase, 6 million would be impossible to ignore. And that 6 mil is enough to drive further markets for BR RW devices.

And i suspect the PS3 might be ok as a BR player, The CELL can decode 12 HD streams simultaneously so 1 should give it no problems, plenty of overhead for sound and HDMI output won't hurt the quality either. Even if it's not so good at 1080p output, it is likely to look significantly better than DVD.

PS3 is a great trojan horse for the BR consortium, it is pretty much guaranteed to sell in huge numbers, very quickly.

See the bolded statement...

Studios are not releasing UMD movies. Sony is.
Which is good enough, they have so many titles under their belt (and MGM) that they might be able to support the UMD movies market for a while on their own.
With BR, there will be other studios releasing movies on top of Sony/MGM so things will be better for BR, considering how many companies are behind it.

 

[PC-Engine]

Very few people will be buying UMD movies regardless if the user base is 100 or 10 million simply because it makes more sense to just buy a DVD that you can watch on a portable DVD player or a home DVD player hooked up to a tv.

 

[croc hunter2]

MGM joins the fun


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/produc...ld-movies_x.htm

Handheld movies are hot


Frederick Green likes his DVD. But after watching Spider-Man 2 on his new PlayStation Portable (PSP), he's eager to watch more movies on the little handheld game player. "The graphics are great," says the 37-year-old Fairlawn, Ohio, resident.

Green's enthusiasm may be spreading. Though the handheld PSP, launched in March, is considered primarily a gaming device, Hollywood studios are aggressively releasing movies on the PSP's proprietary Universal Media Disc (UMD), a 21/4-inch disc encased in a protective plastic shell.

Five of the six major studios are on board. The latest to click in: Paramount and MGM. Only Warner Bros. continues to sit out.

More than 70 UMD titles are in stores or are scheduled to arrive in the coming months. "No other format has gotten this much software support since DVD was launched eight years ago," notes analyst Tom Adams of Adams Media Research.

Paramount today announces 11 titles, including releases from fellow Viacom divisions Comedy Central, Nickelodeon and MTV, making Paramount the first studio to bring TV shows to UMD. The first batch, due Aug. 9, consists of Team America: World Police, Coach Carter and Without a Paddle. Sahara, The Italian Job and MTV's Viva la Bam: Volume 1 follow Aug. 30. Coming later are SpongeBob SquarePants the Movie and compilation UMDs of Chappelle's Show, Ren & Stimpy, South Park and SpongeBob SquarePants TV episodes.

Thomas Lesinski, president of worldwide home entertainment for Paramount Pictures, says the titles were chosen to fit the "key demographics for PSP," which is teens and young-adult males.

MGM, now partly owned by Sony, will release its first batch of four titles Sept. 13: Beauty Shop, Be Cool, Stargate: Atlantis and Bulletproof Monk.

Benjamin Feingold, president of Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, the first studio to supply movies on UMD, says it was always Sony's intent that the PSP be more than a game player. Releasing movies for the PSP, he says, allows studios to "establish a beachhead in the portable, mobile market."

Feingold says that as people spend more and more time with cell phones, personal digital assistants and other portable devices, "it's important for our industry to have movies available."

Since PSP was launched, more than 1.2 million units have sold. Sony's Feingold projects that within 12 months, 6 million to 8 million PSP machines will be in North American households.

Analysts including Adams say that although UMD will never be as ubiquitous as DVD (more than 65 million households own DVD players), the market could grow to 25 million or even 30 million households.

UMD movies are carried by all the big discount and electronics chains, from Wal-Mart and Target to Best Buy and Circuit City. They're for sale at big music chains such as Trans World Entertainment and Musicland, and dedicated game chains Game Stop and EB Games.

Two UMD movies have now sold more than 100,000 copies each: Sony's House of Flying Daggers and Resident Evil 2, both released April 19. Sony's Feingold calls the sales tally "remarkable," noting that it took nine months for the first DVD title, Air Force One, to cross the 100,000-unit mark.

UMD's success on the movie front appears to be coming at the expense of the Warner-initiated Mini-DVD, a three-inch disc that can be played on regular DVD players as well as a dedicated handheld unit from CyberHome. Last January, Fox, Paramount and Universal joined Warner in supporting the Mini. But after an unsuccessful test at Best Buy, all three bowed out. Warner is giving the Mini one last shot with another test at Target.

See the bolded, this isn't just Sony.