NVIDIA discussion [2024]

April 23, 2024
Vietnam's FPT to invest $200 mln in AI factory using Nvidia chips
FPT plans to use Nvidia's support to boost AI research in Vietnam with the aim of developing AI applications and solutions at the planned data centre factory, including for generative AI and autonomous driving, the firms said in a joint statement.
...
"According to the plan, FPT will establish factories in Vietnam and other potential markets including Japan and South Korea," FPT Chairman Truong Gia Binh told reporters.
"FPT is working to achieve its vision to turn Vietnam into an AI hub through collaboration with Nvidia in technology, business development and training," he added.
...
FPT is the most valuable technology company on Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City bourse, with a market capitalization of $5.5 billion. It offers a variety of AI, cloud and big data services, and last year its total revenues exceeded $2 billion.


SoftBank will reportedly invest nearly $1 billion in AI push, tapping Nvidia’s chips
Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank is looking to develop a “world-class” Japanese-language-specific generative artificial intelligence model, and plans to invest $960 million in the next two years to bolster its computing facilities, according to a Nikkei report.

Training of large language models (LLM), such as OpenAI’s Chat GPT, requires advanced graphics processing units, which SoftBank plans to purchase from U.S. chip giant Nvidia
, the Nikkei reported Monday, citing anonymous sources.
 
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We need amd and intel to wake the f' up. At some point Nvidia isn't going to be able to sell gpus because it'll just be money lost. Every dollar they put into ai will reward far more than any gpu they could sell. I'm interested in maybe getting a 5070 or 5080, but I have a feeling they'll be impossible to buy or priced at $10k dollars because it'll be the only way it's worth it for them.
 
We need amd and intel to wake the f' up. At some point Nvidia isn't going to be able to sell gpus because it'll just be money lost. Every dollar they put into ai will reward far more than any gpu they could sell. I'm interested in maybe getting a 5070 or 5080, but I have a feeling they'll be impossible to buy or priced at $10k dollars because it'll be the only way it's worth it for them.

If that happens they should just spin off the consumer division. There must be senior people working at Nvidia who are passionate about rendering and don’t give a crap about AI.
 
I'm interested in maybe getting a 5070 or 5080, but I have a feeling they'll be impossible to buy or priced at $10k dollars because it'll be the only way it's worth it for them.
If that was true then they could already markup the cost for George Hotz (Tiny Corp) wannabees buying consumer gpus for "AI servers" that are sold for tremendous profit.
 
I still don't get the hysteria over AI (enterprise) and consumer impact. Barring some other major shock the only chip with some overlap will be BW(?)102 and SKUs using that with higher VRAM amounts. A 5070 based on rumours may only have 12GB of memory, I'm not seeing that being snapped up by firms for AI.

This isn't like with crypto in which almost the entire product stack had direct profitability scaling that almost anyone (including consumers who never had any interest in PCs before) leverage.
 
I still don't get the hysteria over AI (enterprise) and consumer impact. Barring some other major shock the only chip with some overlap will be BW(?)102 and SKUs using that with higher VRAM amounts. A 5070 based on rumours may only have 12GB of memory, I'm not seeing that being snapped up by firms for AI.

This isn't like with crypto in which almost the entire product stack had direct profitability scaling that almost anyone (including consumers who never had any interest in PCs before) leverage.
I think its more that wafers will be devoted to the AI chips while the gaming chips get less wafer starts and a more constrained inventory thus leading to higher prices. We might see the 5070 at the 4080 prices (1200) and the 5060 at the 4070 price (800) and so on and so forth. Who really knows.

Could actually work in AMD's favor if they can get close in performance in the low to mid range.
 
GB202. GB102 is supposedly a half of GB100 and it won't come to gaming markets (likely missing RT h/w too).

A 5070 based on rumours may only have 12GB of memory, I'm not seeing that being snapped up by firms for AI.
It won't, it's not. The whole hysteria about how Nvidia suddenly decides that graphics don't matter anymore isn't based on anything but wishful thinking. Both Intel and AMD have infinitely more reasons to decide that and yet somehow they don't either.

I think its more that wafers will be devoted to the AI chips while the gaming chips get less wafer starts and a more constrained inventory thus leading to higher prices.
DC products aren't constrained by wafers, they are constrained by the advanced packaging lines. These lines aren't being used for gaming chips.

We might see the 5070 at the 4080 prices (1200) and the 5060 at the 4070 price (800) and so on and so forth.
We might see 5070 at 4080 prices and if it will perform like 4090 then it will be a sizeable perf/price gain and wouldn't matter at all.
 
We need amd and intel to wake the f' up. At some point Nvidia isn't going to be able to sell gpus because it'll just be money lost. Every dollar they put into ai will reward far more than any gpu they could sell. I'm interested in maybe getting a 5070 or 5080, but I have a feeling they'll be impossible to buy or priced at $10k dollars because it'll be the only way it's worth it for them.
In consumer space questionable matrix acceleration and RT aside, NVIDIA has one GPU faster than AMD. So asking them to "wake the f up" is a bit out of touch IMO.
The real issue is mindshare which gets people buying NV GPUs over competitors even when they're clearly not the optimal choice for the buyer, we've seen this over and over again over the years (including times when NVIDIA has had inferior products on every metric)
 
At some point Nvidia isn't going to be able to sell gpus because it'll just be money lost. Every dollar they put into ai will reward far more than any gpu they could sell
If someone thinks that way about NVIDIA, then he/she probably doesn't understand NVIDIA well enough, they are an opportunistic and conquering entity, meaning they love to conquer new markets, for years they kept their Automotive segment on life support even though it brings them very little money, just because it allows them access to new markets. The Gaming segment brings them huge money, they are the market leader there. Gaming chips are also shared with the Professional Visualization segment (in which they are the market leader there too) and Automotive segment. They have no incentive to abandon any of these segments.

If anything, NVIDIA is doubling down on graphics, by expanding the amount of graphics related research and papers (ray tracing, neural networks for rendering, etc), and by pushing for more Path Tracing in games (through RTX Remix projects and direct developer sponsorships), DLSS is also continuously being updated and evolving at an accelerated pace, so I wouldn't worry about that at all.

I'm interested in maybe getting a 5070 or 5080, but I have a feeling they'll be impossible to buy or priced at $10k dollars because it'll be the only way it's worth it for them
Their RTX 40 Super series is a direct contrast to that idea, they adjusted prices down and released more perf/$ parts, even though they don't really need to, but they did.
 
In consumer space questionable matrix acceleration and RT aside, NVIDIA has one GPU faster than AMD. So asking them to "wake the f up" is a bit out of touch IMO.

I also think the bashing of RDNA 3 is overblown but let’s not get carried away. Dismissing RT because it’s inconvenient for AMD might have worked in 2018 but that was a long time ago. Nvidia has at least 2 chips faster than the XTX, 3 if you count Ampere.

Nvidia has sufficient economic incentive to stay in graphics. It turns a profit and isn’t currently cannibalizing AI revenue. The question is how hard are they willing to fight to maintain their market share in consumer.
 
Their RTX 40 Super series is a direct contrast to that idea, they adjusted prices down and released more perf/$ parts, even though they don't really need to, but they did.
Why didn't they need to?
What else are they going to do, just sit on all that inventory again?
 
What else are they going to do, just sit on all that inventory again?
Do you have anything to back up the notion that they were "sitting on all that inventory" prior to 40 Super launch?
From their financial results for 2024 you could see that they actually been flat on the inventory between 23 and 24 despite exploding on revenues.
 
Pretty sure how this will play out.

The sheer volume of AI chips being demanded.. even at this early point, by not just Nvidia, but AMD and Intel as well, will create enormous pressure on silicon manufacturing companies like TSMC and Samsung to the point where they themselves will only accept, and prioritize higher yielding AI chips over consumer grade GPUs... either forcing Nvidia to raise costs even further to the point where consumer grade GPUs become prohibitively expensive, or drastically reducing their consumer GPU output.. which ALSO results in drastically increased prices. So whether Nvidia wants it to happen or not... it will. This will lead to a decrease in GPU sales, which have been trending downward already, and will then lead to even less incentive for Nvidia to focus on that market.

Gaming GPUs are not a priority anymore. Gaming isn't even the main driving factor in the company's newest gaming GPUs... everything will be how can we shoehorn more AI into this thing.. because that's the marketing angle it will need to sell.
 
...But if they are "sitting on all that inventory" right now so that they are forced to lower the prices then why would they need to make more gaming GPUs to begin with?..

Anyway this is exactly the type of false way of thinking people are getting stuck in. DC GPUs will pretty much never be "higher yielding" than gaming chips, even with the current demand it is still nowhere close to the volume of production of gaming chips (or just consumer ones in general). Nvidia won't "raise costs" because you don't just "raise costs" on some market as if there's nothing preventing that from happening at any arbitrary point of time. GPUs hasn't been "prohibitively expensive" right now amidst the peak AI DC demand (signs point to that peak being behind us already) so why would they be in the future? On the contrary they are getting price cuts and lower priced refreshes and are routinely selling *below* their MSRPs. It's just doom and gloom and wishful thinking for no solid reason. People seem to stuck somewhere back in 2021 mentally and just continue as if we're still amidst ETH GPU mining situation.

Gaming GPUs are as much a priority for Nvidia as they ever were. The fact that they are making a bank on AI demand means that they'll invest more money into gaming GPUs as well - if only because such GPUs come with AI h/w in them and the general consensus on future GPU evolution is "AI everywhere". These are not separate markets and the products have a sizeable percentage of synergy in them. Which is why Nvidia got into AI business in the first place - it was with gaming GPUs if anyone forgot.
 
The sheer volume of AI chips being demanded.. even at this early point, by not just Nvidia, but AMD and Intel as well, will create enormous pressure on silicon manufacturing companies like TSMC and Samsung to the point where they themselves will only accept, and prioritize higher yielding AI chips
First of all, AI GPUs are NOT higher yields, they are chips sized at the reticle limit, which means they have much lower yeilds.

Secondly NVIDIA can barely produce 2 to 3 million AI GPUs per year, that's across H100, H200, B100 and B200. That's because these chips need advanced packaging (for HBM, MCM, etc), which is available in limited capacities. Gaming GPUs don't need those advanced packages.

NVIDIA typically produces around 40 million gaming GPUs per year, which means AI GPUs are less than 10% of total NVIDIA capacity. They are so far away from competing with gaming chips, they are not even in the same map.

Thirdly, NVIDIA also produces chips for mobile/consoles/automotive/professional cards, and they all bring a fraction of the gaming revenue and profits, let alone the AI ones, you expect NVIDIA to cease all operations in these segments too?
 
First of all, AI GPUs are NOT higher yields, they are chips sized at the reticle limit, which means they have much lower yeilds.

Secondly NVIDIA can barely produce 2 to 3 million AI GPUs per year, that's across H100, H200, B100 and B200. That's because these chips need advanced packaging (for HBM, MCM, etc), which is available in limited capacities. Gaming GPUs don't need those advanced packages.

NVIDIA typically produces around 40 million gaming GPUs per year, which means AI GPUs are less than 10% of total NVIDIA capacity. They are so far away from competing with gaming chips, they are not even in the same map.

Thirdly, NVIDIA also produces chips for mobile/consoles/automotive/professional cards, and they all bring a fraction of the gaming revenue and profits, let alone the AI ones, you expect NVIDIA to cease all operations in these segments too?

I'm not referring to chip production yields per wafer.. I'm referring to Nvidia's ability to sell it's AI GPUs for much higher prices than consumer gaming GPUs.. The semiconductor manufactures know which is more important to them. As demand scales up, so too will other aspects of the market to facilitate it. They're making far more money off those 2 to 3 million AI GPUs per year than they are their 40m gaming GPUs. GPU sales have been decreasing year after year.. and sales are trending downwards.

Sales go down, costs go up to compensate. Sales continue to go down... costs go up. That's where we're at right now.

Where did I say Nvidia would just cease production and operations of gaming GPUs? I never said that. I've said before that they will slowly price people out of the gaming GPU market.. and they will. As for the other sectors.. Jensen has a personal interest in automotive... we've known that since forever... basically a pet project of his to hang out with his car friends. Professional cards are basically just gaming GPUs now... their console GPUs are basically their mobile GPUs repurposed... so that pretty much explains why they're in those segments.
 
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The semiconductor manufactures know which is more important to them. As demand scales up, so too will other aspects of the market to facilitate it. They're making far more money off those 2 to 3 million AI GPUs per year than they are their 40m gaming GPUs.
They can sell both at the same time, and make even more money. That's how businesses work.

GPU sales have been decreasing year after year.. and sales are trending downwards.
That's not entirely true, only when you compare against Crypto bubbles, but exclude those bubbles, and the number is relatively stable each year.

Sales go down, costs go up to compensate. Sales continue to go down... costs go up. That's where we're at right now.
That's not true, even in the hypothetical situation of gaming sales going way down, NVIDIA can subsidize whatever they need from the huge pile of AI money they have. That's what Intel and AMD do with their not successful Arc and Radeon segments anyway.

Jensen has a personal interest in automotive... we've known that since forever... basically a pet project of his to hang out with his car friends
Sorry, I can't take this seriously, companies don't operate like that let alone NVIDIA. Besides, in your logic Jensen is keeping autmotive as a pet project while getting rid of the gaming which is the company's bread and butter since it started in the first place, that doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Jensen doesn't hate gaming, half his company is doing gaming related work, and part of the AI side is also doing gaming related stuff too, you expect the company to get rid of all those people?!

Professional cards are basically just gaming GPUs now... their console GPUs are basically their mobile GPUs repurposed... so that pretty much explains why they're in those segments.
All of these chips are gaming GPUs with various sizes.
 
Where did I say Nvidia would just cease production and operations of gaming GPUs? I never said that. I've said before that they will slowly price people out of the gaming GPU market.. and they will.

Not following. If they price people out who will be buying those gaming GPUs?
 
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