Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Shortbread]

Actually, you are confused here. They actually first talked about a GPU with RT support, comparing to Nvidia RTX GPUs in order to do graphic Ray Tracing "Ray tracing’s immediate benefits are largely visual."

These are the Wired editor words (assumptions), a lead-in to the Cerny interview.

Wired

PlayStation’s next-generation console ticks all those boxes, starting with an AMD chip at the heart of the device. (Warning: some alphabet soup follows.) The CPU is based on the third generation of AMD’s Ryzen line and contains eight cores of the company’s new 7nm Zen 2 microarchitecture. The GPU, a custom variant of Radeon’s Navi family, will support ray tracing, a technique that models the travel of light to simulate complex interactions in 3D environments. While ray tracing is a staple of Hollywood visual effects and is beginning to worm its way into high-end processors and Nvidia's recently announced RTX line, no game console has been able to manage it. Yet.

Wired

Ray tracing’s immediate benefits are largely visual. Because it mimics the way light bounces from object to object in a scene, reflective surfaces and refractions through glass or liquid can be rendered much more accurately, even in real time, leading to heightened realism.

Cerny

According to Cerny, the applications go beyond graphic implications. “If you wanted to run tests to see if the player can hear certain audio sources or if the enemies can hear the players’ footsteps, ray tracing is useful for that,” he says. “It's all the same thing as taking a ray through the environment.”

Cerny

The AMD chip also includes a custom unit for 3D audio that Cerny thinks will redefine what sound can do in a videogame. “As a gamer,” he says, “it's been a little bit of a frustration that audio did not change too much between PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 4. With the next console the dream is to show how dramatically different the audio experience can be when we apply significant amounts of hardware horsepower to it.”

So, Cerny discussion as far as the printed article is concerned, starts with him talking about RT audio related stuff. What was said before or after the article was printed, isn't how the article is printed.

Sure, Cerny would have talked about RT related lighting, shadowing, reflections and so-on. But that Navi AMD checklist of features mentioned in the article are the Wired editors words, not Cerny's.

https://www.wired.com/story/exclusive-sony-next-gen-console/

Edit: And if Sony officially stated RT hardware, then there would have been no need of having an internal developer retract his statement about PS5 having RT hardware. Kind of pointless of having something removed if it was officially stated. But it wasn't...

As an FYI, yes I do believe PS5 will have RT related hardware, but that's not the point. The point is, no official statement of RT hardware.

 

[Globalisateur]

These are the Wired editor words (assumptions), a lead-in to the Cerny interview.

Wired


Wired


Cerny


Cerny


So, Cerny discussion as far as the printed article is concerned, starts with him talking about RT audio related stuff. What was said before or after the article was printed, isn't how the article is printed.

Sure, Cerny would have talked about RT related lighting, shadowing, reflections and so-on. But that Navi AMD checklist of features mentioned in the article are the Wired editors words, not Cerny's.

https://www.wired.com/story/exclusive-sony-next-gen-console/

Edit: And if Sony officially stated RT hardware, then there would have been no need of having an internal developer retract his statement about PS5 having RT hardware. Kind of pointless of having something removed if it was officially stated. But it wasn't...

As an FYI, yes I do believe PS5 will have RT related hardware, but that's not the point. The point is, no official statement of RT hardware.

You said:

He gave a more detailed outlining of PS5 having a dedicated audio chip towards RT sound refractions

You are mixing 3 things Cerny (well the interviewer + Cerny) said into one thing. They talked about:

- GPU featuring RT for Graphics (1) and additionally Audio (2) tasks
- Custom 3D audio unit to process 3D audio (3).

They never talked about a dedicated audio chip doing RT sounds. Where does it come from ?

 

[Shortbread]

You are mixing 3 things Cerny

You said:

Come on we have official info: The Cerny interview.

No. You're trying to present something other than what Cerny stated. There has never been any official conformation or mention from Cerny or Sony of PS5 having dedicated RT, other than supporting RT officially. That's fact!

Also fact, Sony made an internal developer retract his tweet (Boon Cotter) about stating that PS5 had dedicated RT hardware.

It seems some folks have picked up this tweet as some kind of inside confirmation of anything at all, which it isn't. I assumed it's hw cos we can already do sw ray tracing (albeit glacially). *Jedi voice* I am not the source you're looking for.

If Cerny or Sony had mentioned dedicated RT hardware in the PS5 Wired article, there would be no need for a tweet retraction reaffirming such a hardware feature.

As for the audio part, I meant the bulk of his RT talk from the printed interview centered around RT audio related algorithms and having dedicated (or custom) silicon for audio effects. Which I should have not combined in stating as such.

But yes, there is no official statement from Cerny or Sony stating RT hardware. But there is enough qualifiable secondary information that it will. So, I will leave it at that.

 

[PSman1700]

even PS1 can already do that

At what speed though

A custom and exclusive implementation that will only be present on Sony and nowhere else, like we saw with e.g. ID Buffer and some other custom hardware dedicated to checkerboard (e.g. separate chiplet).

Yeah will be nice for multiplatform titles. If it needs to be better then RT in a 2080TI, then let's hope AMD really has something.

 

[MrFox]

Whatever they add for RT, I wonder if they'll announce it like nvidia and state the TF performance of the gpu from the compound RT flops. The 2080 is 60TF on the nvidia site. Comparison from specs is impossible.

It's kind of stupid if they start listing all the different peak metrics and then also have to mention the IPC increase on navi. OTOH, saying a plain 30TF or so based on RT peak numbers would be perceived as misleading from game journalists or misunderstood from the gamers.

 

[BRiT]

Let's be honest, everything is misunderstood by the gamers.

 

[Shortbread]

Let's be honest, everything is misunderstood by the gamers.

Mostly it's console warrior anxiety. Mostly next-generation anxiety of one console potentially outperforming the other (TF wise) and the possibility of one having the better RT solution.

 

[Shortbread]

Whatever they add for RT, I wonder if they'll announce it like nvidia and state the TF performance of the gpu from the compound RT flops. The 2080 is 60TF on the nvidia site. Comparison from specs is impossible.

Nope. Both Sony and Microsoft will keep it basic and simple. They don't want to get into a dick wagging contest of comparing RT metrics with Nvidia's hardware. I'm almost certain AMD doesn't as well, not until 2021 at least.

 

[PSman1700]

They don't want to get into a dick wagging contest of comparing RT metrics with Nvidia's hardware.

Comparing to pc hardware isn't that a good idea anyways.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

You're trying to present something other than what Cerny stated. There has never been any official conformation or mention from Cerny or Sony of PS5 having dedicated RT, other than supporting RT officially. That's fact!

You're really grasping at straws here.

Just like those people some time ago in this thread saying:
- Well, in the interview Cerny said the word SSD a bunch of times, he said SSDs would help in getting much faster loading times and he said the PS5 would have much faster loading time, but he didn't exactly say there would be a SSD in the console!

Now it's:
- Weeeelll... he said what RT was and how cool it is, and he said the console would do RT, but he didn't reeeaaally say there would be RT hardware in the console!


When you go to a restaurant, do you also order the plate and cutlery when telling the waiter what you want to eat? I mean the menu doesn't really specify that the food is coming in a plate, nor that they'll serve you a fork and a knife.
Or do you think it's possible that the PS5 will be doing RT through software, when pretty much nothing short of several gigawatts in hardware can perform real-time ray tracing and with terrible performance?
Or Mark Cerny is just being a weasel and doing word games to trick everybody?

Hey, maybe the console doesn't even work with TVs because there's no HDMI out. I mean they haven't specifically said there's a HDMI output in the console.
And does it really support discs? It doesn't really say there's a disc spinning drive in there, so maybe all the console has is a disk holder to support disks like this one:

 

[iroboto]

Now it's:
- Weeeelll... he said what RT was and how cool it is, and he said the console would do RT, but he didn't reeeaaally say there would be RT hardware in the console!

To the point of the debate at the moment, the question is 'how much'. That slide you showed, it says 8K. Well, what does that mean other than 8K support. Do we realistically believe the console is capable of native 8K gaming or heck even reconstructed? Why would they even bother supporting 8K other than just having a marketing bullet point. If I were to buy an 8K TV today, it would cost as much as a 100K CAD. That's basically the cost of a new Tesla, for an 8K screen.

Back to Ray Tracing, once again, they could definitely support it in hardware, but how much? The difference between what a 2080TI vs a 2060 is pretty large when it comes to RT hardware. And we know if we want a lot of RT on the scene, we're going to need at least something around 2080/TI to get us those bells and whistles. And in 2020 I'm sure nvidia will release their next RT silicon revision that will be better than their last. Where does AMD/Sony/MS stand in this discussion with respect to how much RT power they can push on a closed box with limited power?

Are we looking at mainly marketing and a case of some RT shadows and minor lighting work? Or are we looking into something much more explicit. The support for RT and how far you go will come at a silicon cost.

 

[PSman1700]

To the point of the debate at the moment, the question is 'how much'. That slide you showed, it says 8K. Well, what does that mean other than 8K support. Do we realistically believe the console is capable of native 8K gaming or heck even reconstructed? Why would they even bother supporting 8K other than just having a marketing bullet point. If I were to buy an 8K TV today, it would cost as much as a 100K CAD. That's basically the cost of a new Tesla, for an 8K screen.

This. That slide and the Cerny interview are just marketing, just like Microsofts E3 conference about xbox hardware. PS5 could do as much ray tracing as it can do 8k. Perhaps it's mostly '3d audio' related who knows.

Back to Ray Tracing, once again, they could definitely support it in hardware, but how much? The difference between what a 2080TI vs a 2060 is pretty large when it comes to RT hardware. And we know if we want a lot of RT on the scene, we're going to need at least something around 2080/TI to get us those bells and whistles. And in 2020 I'm sure nvidia will release their next RT silicon revision that will be better than their last. Where does AMD/Sony/MS stand in this discussion with respect to how much RT power they can push on a closed box with limited power?

If it's RTX 2060 or even 2070Ti level, it will be quite far below Nvidia's next GPU that launches around when the next consoles come. BUt sony and ms won't have to worry as both PS5 and next Xbox are going to have AMD hardware, they won't have to compete with Nvidia.

Are we looking at mainly marketing and a case of some RT shadows and minor lighting work? Or are we looking into something much more explicit. The support for RT and how far you go will come at a silicon cost.

Probably not Control Ray Traced level, but some shadows here and there and they can say 'RT hw support'. Just as the device probably can do '8k' somewhere.

 

[BRiT]

Talk about confusing messaging.

 

[Jay]

Mostly it's console warrior anxiety. Mostly next-generation anxiety of one console potentially outperforming the other (TF wise) and the possibility of one having the better RT solution.

Didn't see where he said to compare it to pc?
Just come up with a different measure the same way Nvidia has. Their own form of gigarays for a combined RT and TF value for example.

For the people who worry about how TF compares to current Gen, x TF doesn't sound enough to market compared to 1X.
Can also measure current gen with it. The difference in power will be much bigger.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

That slide you showed, it says 8K. Well, what does that mean other than 8K support. Do we realistically believe the console is capable of native 8K gaming or heck even reconstructed? Why would they even bother supporting 8K other than just having a marketing bullet point. If I were to buy an 8K TV today, it would cost as much as a 100K CAD. That's basically the cost of a new Tesla, for an 8K screen.

1 - I have no idea where you got that "100K CAD" from but that's about 20x more expensive than the cheapest 8K TV is from Samsung that costs $3000. I can't find any 8K TV that goes even close to 100K other than the 100" models that would always be very expensive because of their size.
The first 4K TV in the consumer market came in 2012 and it cost $20 000 (mostly because it was a 84" behemoth). Nowadays you can find 4K TVs for $500.
Do you want to bet how many 8K TVs we'll have in the market below $2500 before the end of 2020?


2 - Why wouldn't the console be able to render at 8K (or stuff like 5K + reconstruction) in some games? If it's powerful enough to do it, there's no reason why a future FIFA, Lego, quizz or 2D indie game wouldn't run at whatever the HDMI 2.1 connection allows it to.
Not to mention we're bound to get 8K in video streaming services within the next handful of years. Japan already has some experimental 8K streaming services.
You think Scarlett won't support 8K output?

Probably not Control Ray Traced level, but some shadows here and there and they can say 'RT hw support'. Just as the device probably can do '8k' somewhere.

You think the first-ever real time raytracing hardware implementation from nvidia will stay forever as the most efficient researchers can possibly develop on a per-transistor and per-quality level?

 

[Shortbread]

You're really grasping at straws here.

Nope. Just not hopping on the "official RT hardware" bandwagon of something Cerny and Sony didn't specifically state. And there is no problem of having opposing opinions on it.

Didn't see where he said to compare it to pc?

I think you missed quoted the wrong reply. I think you meant to quote my reply dealing with MrFox's RT metrics comment (see quote below).

Anyhow, I stated "nope," replying to part of his comment stating "I wonder if they'll announce it like nvidia and state the TF performance of the gpu from the compound RT flops."

And I followed that comment up with the more than likely scenario of, "Both Sony and Microsoft will keep it basic and simple."

Lastly, adding my two cents ("They don't want to get into a dick wagging contest of comparing RT metrics with Nvidia's hardware. I'm almost certain AMD doesn't as well, not until 2021 at least.") on why using Nvidia RT metrics would be bad in general.

Whatever they add for RT, I wonder if they'll announce it like nvidia and state the TF performance of the gpu from the compound RT flops. The 2080 is 60TF on the nvidia site. Comparison from specs is impossible.

 

[iroboto]

1 - I have no idea where you got that "100K CAD" from but that's about 20x more expensive than the cheapest 8K TV is from Samsung that costs $3000. I can't find any 8K TV that goes even close to 100K other than the 100" models that would always be very expensive because of their size.

Lol. Sorry this was an inside joke between my buddies who egg me on on buying stupid shit. But here is the TV in question:
https://m.visions.ca/#/home-productdetail?productId=50548

2) i think we both know that 8K support is nothing more than support for 8K; XBO 1S has support for 4K output as well. It’s not like how PS4Pro and X1X are designed purposefully to run games at 4K. I suspect aside from outputting 8K, the bandwidth and cable support to do it; we won’t be seeing much 8K titles. I suppose the argument is that 4K60 could be 8K30; but it’s not something I’m banking on seeing much of.

I guess I’m not sold on the idea that we’re going to see RT 4K 60fps or 8K 30 FPS super fidelity graphics. Etc. There’s just too much in conflict happening here. RT seems to really hate high resolution because of the number of intersection tests.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I know there are some who assume the obvious situation is for Sony and Microsoft to use the exact same implementation of real-time raytracing. However, the recently available roadmaps leave some space for discussion here.
We have AMD saying next-gen RDNA GPUs will have ray tracing hardware. In separate slides they claim RDNA 2 (still in design at the moment) at 7nm+ is coming until 2021, meaning it could come in 2021 only 2 years from now.

If you're referring to that slide in the article you linked, that actually implies a mid to late 2020 release for RDNA2. The timeline goes from 2017 to 2021 with RDNA falling exactly on 2019 (midpoint of the line) and RDNA2 basically falling where 2020 (3/4 point of the line) would be.

Considering that lines up with when RDNA launched, I'd say it's far more confirmation for a 2020 launch of RDNA2. The big question is when in 2020, assuming it doesn't get delayed?

Regards,
SB

 

[AlNom]

Isn’t a big hurdle for quality RT the denoising? i.e. ludicrous fp16?

 

[iroboto]

Isn’t a big hurdle for quality RT the denoising? i.e. ludicrous fp16?

One aspect for sure yes. The better the denoiser, the less rays you need to cast.