Well, I know, but I didn't think the roadmap was that "advanced".
Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]
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anexanhume
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Yes it is. We don’t know anything about it other than it’s not GCN derivative, not even a name. And everyone is highly skeptical of the 2019/2020 timeframe they give for its debut.
D
Deleted member 13524
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Lately, when AMD shows a roadmap graphic with the release for a new GPU loosely saying 2020, this means there will be 15 reviewers with cards in their hands in December 29th, with the review embargo lifted December 31st at 23:59.
Or worse: they launch a prosumer card shipping December 29, without any reviewer coverage.
Thankfully, with the marketing team being renewed and the R&D funds for RTG being increased, we might get launches that are a little bit more serious.
For the process, what we got for the PS4 Pro is a bit more than a year after TSMC started mass production of 16nm (aug 2015).
So with 7nm right about now = nov 2019
And if 7nm+ is around mid 2019 = nov 2020
The next architecture seems to be planned as a 7nm+ launch. Maybe 2020 is the best case, and 2021 the worst case.
So with 7nm right about now = nov 2019
And if 7nm+ is around mid 2019 = nov 2020
The next architecture seems to be planned as a 7nm+ launch. Maybe 2020 is the best case, and 2021 the worst case.
I don't know if they will go with 7nm+. Price and performance doesn't seem that good a reason to, I would rather be out a year earlier or maybe two at 7nm but I don't have all the info or the knowledge that someone like Cerny has.
With the info I have and my ignorance
I would aim for 2019. It nullifies the Xbox X as the best place to play third party current gen games, though I doubt that would be a big factor for Sony. So like a soft launch and later in 2020 with maybe a price drop and more PS5 exclusives.
With the info I have and my ignorance
I would aim for 2019. It nullifies the Xbox X as the best place to play third party current gen games, though I doubt that would be a big factor for Sony. So like a soft launch and later in 2020 with maybe a price drop and more PS5 exclusives.
is power the biggest driver here to release early?I don't know if they will go with 7nm+. Price and performance doesn't seem that good a reason to, I would rather be out a year earlier or maybe two at 7nm but I don't have all the info or the knowledge that someone like Cerny has.
With the info I have and my ignorance
The thing about 7nm+ is that it's supposed to relax a lot of design rules (and add lot of different ones) and improve yield for larger chips. Maybe designing based on what 7nm+ allows is an advantage regardless of speed, power, or even cost per transistor.I don't know if they will go with 7nm+. Price and performance doesn't seem that good a reason to, I would rather be out a year earlier or maybe two at 7nm but I don't have all the info or the knowledge that someone like Cerny has.
With the info I have and my ignorance
anexanhume
Veteran
Anybody want to want on Sony’s CPU profiler team?
https://www.snsystems.com/careers/vacancies/technical-lead-razor-cpu
https://www.snsystems.com/careers/vacancies/technical-lead-razor-cpu
Architecture can still influence performance in major unexpected ways. Just look at how NV's Pascal surprised everyone. Theoretically, AMD could pull something like that.
Also, Intel played the hare out of a certain fable and took a nap at the wayside for several years, and thus let AMD catch up to them in x86 performance even on an inferior silicon process.
So there exists precedent.
It all comes down to money. What's going to make more money waiting for 7nm+ or making sure you keep and grow your walled garden. So will Sony keep and grow there PS+ subscribers by releasing early?
For me the amount of money and growth potential in the "network" is the most important thing presently and even more so going forward. So for me both Microsoft and Sony have to launch before 2021, unless of course neither of them do
Maybe there's a chance Microsoft jumps the gun and releases in 2019.
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D
Deleted member 13524
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It did?
I look at Pascal and see little more than Maxwell plus the clock improvements stated by TSMC regarding the 28nm -> 16FF+ transition (~65%).
IMHO it's rather Polaris and most of all Vega that surprised everyone regarding their clocks, but in a negative way.
TSMC has announced they will soon start manufacturing Wafer-on-Wafer [WoW] chips, essentially creating multiple layers of chips [even GPUs] directly inside their wafer production line. Initial production will be with 16nm tech, but there are plans for 7nm and 5nm work also.
https://www.techspot.com/news/74441-tsmc-stacked-wafer-tech-could-double-power-nvidia.html
While this is a interesting tech, and a clear future for eventual GPU use on PC, I'm not expecting that MS or Sony will target this for 9th gen of consoles.
https://www.techspot.com/news/74441-tsmc-stacked-wafer-tech-could-double-power-nvidia.html
While this is a interesting tech, and a clear future for eventual GPU use on PC, I'm not expecting that MS or Sony will target this for 9th gen of consoles.
The hope is that AMD's next architecture will be more efficient and more scaleable. It could be worth waiting for.It all comes down to money. What's going to make more money waiting for 7nm+ or making sure you keep and grow your walled garden. So will Sony keep and grow there PS+ subscribers by releasing early?
For me the amount of money and growth potential in the "network" is the most important thing presently and even more so going forward. So for me both Microsoft and Sony have to launch before 2021, unless of course neither of them do
Maybe there's a chance Microsoft jumps the gun and releases in 2019.
anexanhume
Veteran
I think MS and Sony view launching within the same month as their competitor as the paramount concern. Neither wants to give the other a year head start. I’m sure they have multiple chips in the works as risk reduction so that they can be prepared to launch at a variety of dates.
bitsandbytes
Newcomer
Are you suggesting both Sony and MS will have multiple different specs/types of SoCs/APUs designed and ready to go depending on how things shake out?
I seriously doubt this how things work. Right?
anexanhume
Veteran
Designed and ready to go? No. I’d be shocked if they didn’t have multiple concepts up until production tapeout though. The flexibility and agility is worth several million more in NRE as risk reduction.
MS felt they were caught flat-footed with the Xbox One design and did an upclock at the last minute to try and mitigate. This was after their internal guidance said they should be prepared for a more powerful Sony machine. I think they now take power and enthusiast reception very seriously.
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bitsandbytes
Newcomer
Sorry..I just realised I misread in your post as risk production rather than risk reduction thinking you were talking about chips being made at TSMC!
Sorry about that.
I can easily see it being as late as 2021. MS and Sony design hardware whose lifetime spans almost a decade. Planning a generation doesn’t revolve around just one node. 5 nm designs are supposedly going to approach $500 million with manufacturing cost around 2.5-3 X times the cost of 14/16nm.
A lot of companies are shying away from the latest shrinks because of cost which means a smaller number of companies and their designs are bearing more of the burden of the initial costs of newer nodes.
Waiting for 7nm to mature may be the best step forward because it may offer the greatest cost saving when moving toward new nodes. Next gen EUV and its required tools aren’t slated to show up until 2024. Releasing later allows for a more natural progression of cost reduction while minimizing overall costs.
Currently, the PS4 has held the $299 price point for a long time. Now that seems to be a simple choice of Sony trying to maximize margin. But neither Sony or MS wants to release a next gen console with limited ability to reduce retail pricing so end up stuck at higher price points for a considerable amount of time.
Last thing the console market needs are consoles that launch at ~$500 price points and still sporting price tags near those initial price points 3-4 years later.
Gemüsepizza
Newcomer
Are you saying that, instead of releasing a PS5 for 499 in 2019, Sony should not have any new products for a few years, so that they can release a PS5 for 399 in 2021?
Because that doesn't make any sense. They will always be able to reduce price after some time.
And with BC and cross-gen games, they don't need to launch PS5 at 399, because the PS4 can be their cheap entry point into the PS ecosystem. This just wasn't possible last-gen.
In the end, they make their money with software and services. It is not necessary that everyone buys a PS5 for 499, because that's not where the money is being made.
But it is important to offer new products that can take on the competition. And if they can release a new 7nm product at 499, I don't see why they should wait. Even at that price point, they will still be able to sell every single PS5 during the first few years.
Because that doesn't make any sense. They will always be able to reduce price after some time.
And with BC and cross-gen games, they don't need to launch PS5 at 399, because the PS4 can be their cheap entry point into the PS ecosystem. This just wasn't possible last-gen.
In the end, they make their money with software and services. It is not necessary that everyone buys a PS5 for 499, because that's not where the money is being made.
But it is important to offer new products that can take on the competition. And if they can release a new 7nm product at 499, I don't see why they should wait. Even at that price point, they will still be able to sell every single PS5 during the first few years.
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