Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[bgassassin]

Yeah, there was never any serious threat of it having 16 physical cores. It could have as few as 4 with 4 way SMT as IBM has used. Having a digital tuner sounds crazy when OTA seems like a dead end technology. Not that I don't think MS would go there, but that's another thing to add to the BOM in addition to HD Kinect.

It actually makes me nauseous trying to think about the wrangling needed to navigate that road, building a universal entertainment box that will inter-operate with whatever broadcast standard, cable company, sat provider or ISP you have in whatever part of the world you live in. It's the same feeling I get whenever I think of what it must be like to be an urban planner.

Your post made me think of this.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v34/bgassassin/TheHomer.jpg

But I wonder how much would be reserved for OS and other functions based on what we know so far. That's a lot of stuff being posed in CVG's article.

 

[anexanhume]

They pretty much need to release in the next year or they risk massive user base attrition. It has already gotten to the point where the consoles aren't competitive from a user standpoint for many games. They risk wholesale defection if they wait until holiday 2014. They are also starting to see developer support erode with all new game development switching heavily to PC as primary target.

Xbox 360 and ps3 sales are still decent. It's only the wii that was atrocious. They still have plenty of support with a lot of big titles still to come: last of us, two souls, god of war, halo 4, gears, bioshock infinite, AC 3 etc.

They may be targeting PC, but you can't make money back on a AAA title unless you're blizzard or you develop for Xbox and ps3 too. This cycle is also elongated by enriched entertainment options, online gaming and motion control. The retailers will wait.

Nah

Sony will probably announce the new console in Q1 in an event in Japan like the Vita. MS communicated 360 six months before launch.



lol, this is certainly hyperbole no matter what. PC is a distant third platform in revenue vs PS3/360/PC multiplatforms

PS3 unveiled e3 2005, released november 2006.

 

[tunafish]

Yeah, there was never any serious threat of it having 16 physical cores.

16 physical cores was/is possible, given that the individual cores are small and cheap enough. Like PPC470 or some ARM cores.

Nearly every dev out there would much prefer less and fatter cores, though.

 

[anexanhume]

16 physical cores was/is possible, given that the individual cores are small and cheap enough. Like PPC470 or some ARM cores.

Nearly every dev out there would much prefer less and fatter cores, though.

Can't see them wanting more than 4 cores/ 8 threads.

 

[XpiderMX]

Yeah, there was never any serious threat of it having 16 physical cores. It could have as few as 4 with 4 way SMT as IBM has used. Having a digital tuner sounds crazy when OTA seems like a dead end technology. Not that I don't think MS would go there, but that's another thing to add to the BOM in addition to HD Kinect.

It actually makes me nauseous trying to think about the wrangling needed to navigate that road, building a universal entertainment box that will inter-operate with whatever broadcast standard, cable company, sat provider or ISP you have in whatever part of the world you live in. It's the same feeling I get whenever I think of what it must be like to be an urban planner.

What about 2 or 3 SKUs?

1.- Low price ($299-$349). No disc drive, no hard drive, no digital tuner
2.- Medium price ($399). Disc drive (bluray), no hard drive, no digital tuner
3.- Premium ($499). Disc drive, hard drive, digital tuner

All with Kinect (PC version).

 

[Brad Grenz]

No disc drive AND no hard drive. I can't imagine MS selling a version that will be basically unable to play games OOTB. Modular storage options are pretty straight forward, but the kind of options you are proposing would be hassle to both manufacture and to stock for retailers.

 

[XpiderMX]

No disc drive AND no hard drive. I can't imagine MS selling a version that will be basically unable to play games OOTB. Modular storage options are pretty straight forward, but the kind of options you are proposing would be hassle to both manufacture and to stock for retailers.

Basically a digital-content version, with some flash drive storage. Upgradeable with disc drive and hard drive.

EDIt: Some rumours said that Xbox 3 will not have a disc drive.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

How are you going to play games without a drive or hdd?

Anyway I doubt we will see a lot of extra hardware included in the box that isn't going to be used for gaming. Also, the post above with all the features nextbox is supposed to have, apart from kinect non of them need a lot of processing power. Running downloads and social networking stuff in the background will have no meaningful impact on performance and recording video, as long as its not ingame video, won't be an issue either. Every half decent pc from the past 5 years will do that no sweat.

I just don't see a 500 something currency console having succes. Sony tried and failed and they had BR and a better economic climate going for them.

The amount of people who are going to care, and are willing to pay extra for media functions is just very small. A recorder is cheap, a dedicated media player that will play everything a console will and more (except for BR disks, but nobody buys those) will set you back 70 euro's and the more tech savvy user can build a fully fledged htpc for 500 euro's so who is going to pay extra for a console with gimped media functions?

399 is probably the most sensible price point if you ask me.

 

[XpiderMX]

How are you going to play games without a drive or hdd?

Xbox Live Arcade games? Games on Demand? Flash drive? USB drives support?

 

[Rangers]

A poster by the name StartSomething provided a link and highlighted some things that could be a possible explanation as to why Xbox 3 doesn't sound balanced.

http://www.computerandvideogames.co...re-detail-their-ps4-xbox-720-wishlist/?page=5



I keep forgetting about their multimedia intentions. Also while I don't know the amount of cores yet, what is said here is what my guess would have been.

jives completely with what bkillian has been hinting at. there was some post where somebody was complaining durango might not have great gpu, and he posted back how power!=gpu but might be more in the cpu.

most rumors have pointed at powerful cpu for durango, except steamvarr who said it would have jaguar cores. since he was just one flaky source, i think i'd trust the more numerous rumors.

still sounds too out there to me though for shipping console, thats a LOT of cpu power.

i dont mind all this, sounds like they just need to make sure the gpu is at least adequate/competitive with ps4. pretty sure they will.

Hmm, after the link that article also says this:

Complementing AMD's latest CPU in Durango is a member of its current top-flight GPU family, the Radeon HD 7000. This implies the same "Southern Islands" GPU (or thereabouts) as Sony's PS4 reportedly uses; which means the same concerns about how a top-performing GPU today is supposed to compete in over a year's time, and beyond.

I guess it doesnt say WHAT HD7000..

Those article authors seemed to know very little about PS4 though in their preceding page, which might chip at their credibility a bit.

Yeah, there was never any serious threat of it having 16 physical cores.

An 8 module/16 cores bulldozer (or Piledriver or Steamroller really) is essentially 16 cores in my book. Certainly arguably so.

Tom's has the Desktop Trinity review up, and it shows 15% IPC increase over Bulldozer. It really seems like Piledriver will be competitive with Intel's best already (since it should be clocked>4ghz too, giving it a total of 20+% speedup). Too the point, Bulldozer/Piledriver is not so bad it seems. And having 16 real threads would be kind of sick.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Right, so people will buy a 300 euro console and than you expect them to spend even more money before they can actually use the product they just bought? Thats like BMW selling you a car without wheels.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Right, so people will buy a 300 euro console and than you expect them to spend even more money before they can actually use the product they just bought? Thats like BMW selling you a car without wheels.

That's like Sony selling you a Vita without a memory card. Or Hasbro selling you a toy without any batteries.

 

[nightside]

PS3 unveiled e3 2005, released november 2006.

iirc the initial launch date was march 2006, but was delayed to november (and 2007 europe)

What about 2 or 3 SKUs?

1.- Low price ($299-$349). No disc drive, no hard drive, no digital tuner
2.- Medium price ($399). Disc drive (bluray), no hard drive, no digital tuner
3.- Premium ($499). Disc drive, hard drive, digital tuner

All with Kinect (PC version).

i wouldn't be suprised if ms tries a subscription model, similar to the one already used for smartphones.

 

[Prophecy2k]

That's like Sony selling you a Vita without a memory card. Or Hasbro selling you a toy without any batteries.

More like Sony selling a Vita without a memory card, or even a game disc drive to put the game discs into.

Wouldn't happen really.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Spending more money before you can use the product you bought, as tongue says, isn't that unusual. I think it highly improbable, but XpiderMX's suggestion of a drive-less SKU would be valid if you also buy an MS Flash Drive with it, or there's one in the box as a bundle.

 

[Rangers]

Ehh, optical drives are 20 bucks (maybe more for Blu Ray, dunno), just dont see the point at this stage. Maybe later on.

You can still move more to digital while having a optical drive. Hell this generation, a whole lot has moved to digital. LOL, remember 50MB XBLA limit? How quaint...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You could make a smaller unit which'd have a physical aesthetic, and maybe smoe worthwhie savings in storage and dsitribution. But I don't really see the point myself either.

 

[Rangers]

About the 16 core bulldozer, I had completely forgot how huge a die that would be, Anandtech lists a AMD Interlagos die at 2x315mm. So 630mm?

No chance considering all the silicon on a OG Xbox came in closer to 400mm.

Or if they do, it's incredibly stupid, considering what an absolutely monster GPU you could do for that price instead.

Sure they can probably cut a lot of cache out or whatever, maybe they're even hoping on a node shrink, but I still dont see it as feasible.

If it's 16 threads, maybe they're jaguars and those are much smaller cores, or something.

The article says:

As suspected, the latest word from our sources is that Durango's "16 CPU cores" are actually logical cores, which would likely mean eight physical cores running two threads each

If true, I'd be looking much more into something from IBM then, since AMD doesn't really do hyperthreading, they do more of x number of true threads. I mean hell technically the 360 is 3 cores/6 threads and obviously tiny.

Plus, if MS wants to do software BC, as they surely do, you probably need an IBM CPU...

 

[Invalid]

Based on recent rumours:

PS4 or simply PS (the new ipad way) Autumn-Spring 2014 release:
Core model:
4 core steamroller 7/8970m apu
2-4 gddr5 192/256bit bus
16GB flash
299-349$

Premium:
As above plus 640+GB hdd,hdmi cable(!)
399-449$

Use flash as cache and dedicate a small amount for game saves in the core model and as sshd in the premium.

As for MS i really don't know what to expect.They have to make clear what they want from next xbox.A hardcore games console?A W8 trojan horse?A wii (kinect)successor?
They have the resources to built a beast of a machine but will they?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'd expect 32GBs Flash as an absolute minimum as the price will drop quickly and Sony want to sell download content. Actually 2014 release, I'd expect 64 GBs minimum. That'd be quite serviceable I think.