Xbox Business Update Podcast | Xbox Everywhere Direction Discussion

[Cyan]

One thing that I find concerning is it wont have a devkit but target specs. I think this is going to be very interesting but it sounds like it will be either a pain for devs to pass all requirements or it will be a pain for consumers to get running with the myriad of hw.

if they fit it with an OS adapted and friendly for casual gamers, being a PC underneath, it won't be limited by the policies of console manufacturers that mean that almost no games are released for them. More games are released for PC in one year than for a normal console in 6. Finally, we'd have a console with a decent catalogue and not the mini-catalogue that consoles offer today, which don't come out with a huge amount of games. We'll have the PC catalogue, in plug and play format for console dummies and with decent power, not like consoles that always offer technology from 3 or 4 years ago.

 

[Nisaaru]

I wish they would separate MTX from DLC. To me a DLC *and* a Season Pass is *not* MTX only because I bought it digital.

P.S. I buy everything digital anyway.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

if they fit it with an OS adapted and friendly for casual gamers, being a PC underneath, it won't be limited by the policies of console manufacturers that mean that almost no games are released for them. More games are released for PC in one year than for a normal console in 6. Finally, we'd have a console with a decent catalogue and not the mini-catalogue that consoles offer today, which don't come out with a huge amount of games. We'll have the PC catalogue, in plug and play format for console dummies and with decent power, not like consoles that always offer technology from 3 or 4 years ago.

Consoles have thousands of games. PC has tens of thousands, most of which go unplayed, almost none of which get finished. Is 'more games' really a need for consoles? Particularly when the best PC titles tend to get ports?

 

[Johnny Awesome]

This is an interesting direction if it's true.

My biggest reservation is that I don't know if they can get as much hardware in the box for the same kind of money that a PS6 will be. Sony should have at least a $100 advantage in efficiency by making 50+ million of the same PS6 box, compared to an Xbox Prime "PC/Console" if released in the same time frame. Yet, maybe that's why they want to launch staggered from PS6. Maybe it doesn't matter if the Xbox Prime is as good as the PS6 if the console wars are over. It just has to make GP subscribers happy. One of the cool advantages of the hybrid is that Sony PC games will work on it. That definitely boxes Sony in a little bit. Another advantage is that it assures support in a world where Xbox might not sell enough units to justify ports. It takes the pressure off hardware sales for MS.

Btw, even if every single MS Xbox game is released for PS, Xbox still has the best console exclusive in gaming - Game Pass. I think the Xbox Prime lives or dies by how much current GP subscribers really want it and GP. All the GP subscribing Series owners I know are definitely geeked for more Xbox hardware.

 

[Cyan]

Consoles have thousands of games. PC has tens of thousands, most of which go unplayed, almost none of which get finished. Is 'more games' really a need for consoles? Particularly when the best PC titles tend to get ports?

it's like buffet food. how many games do you get a year? On console or on PC, and from which genre? Do you have a huge uncompleted backlog?

not everyone has the same taste of games, some like RTS, tactics, fps, adventures, narrative stuff, puzzle, erotic stuff, visual novels, platforming, racing, sports.....

For consoles though, it might be a different model, except of the Switch 2 the controls are pretty much a gamepad all the time, which is a boon for certain games and genres but is difficult to adapt to others. Xcom 2 or maybe Shadow Tactics -dunno about this one- made their way into consoles.

one of the reasons why I want to get new games despite having an unfinished backlog is because I want to be involved in the "current" conversation, although I feel less pressured to do that over time, since most AAA games aren't catching my attention as of late.

the backlog of games I have is really huge, I could almost play those games for the rest of my life. To give some order to how one plays games, I created a "Games I Want To Complete" collection on Steam, and I only have Xcom 2 there now, and I am on the way to complete it.

the best thing about Steam is imho, the infinite catalog of games. If I bought a new console, I'd never be able to play amazing games of the past like Xcom 2 WOTC or Shadow Tactics Blades of the Shogun, etc. At high resolutions those games still look fine and can be a blast to play, regardless of the era.

also, I've noticed that if a game doesn't get me hooked after the first 3-4 hours playing it, I don't bother to continue playing it and remove it from my favourites list.

 

[rntongo]

if they fit it with an OS adapted and friendly for casual gamers, being a PC underneath, it won't be limited by the policies of console manufacturers that mean that almost no games are released for them. More games are released for PC in one year than for a normal console in 6. Finally, we'd have a console with a decent catalogue and not the mini-catalogue that consoles offer today, which don't come out with a huge amount of games. We'll have the PC catalogue, in plug and play format for console dummies and with decent power, not like consoles that always offer technology from 3 or 4 years ago.

Not sure it will be as simple as that. I think a PC Xbox will more likely to eat into the current PC gaming market than say Consoles or creating a new market.

 

[see colon]

I wish they would separate MTX from DLC. To me a DLC *and* a Season Pass is *not* MTX only because I bought it digital.

P.S. I buy everything digital anyway.

What if a season pass is just a bunch of Microtransactions?

 

[Nisaaru]

What if a season pass is just a bunch of Microtransactions?

The games I pay for the season pass mostly avoid that or at least add something you can't get otherwise. In case of Division I don't buy any MTX but pay the season pass mostly to show support for the franchise to avoid a shutdown.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Does it change the argument? Ongoing monetisation seems a significant income source, more than selling titles, and so if selling games allows for subsidising hardware, ongoing monetisation, whether MTX or DLC or BBQ, should enable the same to the same degree or maybe even more. I think that nullifies that specific argument about choices in developing new hardware compared to historical strategy.

 

[iroboto]

View attachment 13291
That's 2021. Given sales of games is decreasing as more time is spent on black-hole games than new games, and yet revenue is increasing, spend in IGCs must be even bigger now.

Also:
View attachment 13292

Yea i can see where the graph is that MTX makes the most. But if we look at net sales of hardware for instance. Now imagine also taking a $100 loss per console, maybe $150.
Suddenly that’s eating heavily into your profits from your MTX. We’ve come to the same conclusion here for different reasons, for me this reads, as long as hardware is sold at a profit instead of a loss this graph looks good. But if you are selling for a loss, than this graph looks pretty bad.

It may be related to wanting a smaller player base that’s willing to pay more, but I have my doubts on that since the newer kids generation don’t have as much money as the adults

 

[rntongo]

Xbox's hardware fightback begins with a gaming handheld planned for later this year, with full next-gen consoles targeting 2027

Microsoft's first full foray into PC gaming handhelds begins with a partner device set to launch later this year, with its own Xbox Series X|S successors now fully in production.

www.windowscentral.com

Yeah as I thought 2026 would have been a disaster to launch a new device. 2027 isnt bad, but will give PS6 some advantages if Sony launches in 2028.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I don't think either year is disastrous if the tech is ready since MS isn't trying to outsell Sony in console hardware anymore. Of course, the tech is more likely to be ready for 2027 than 2026.

The real question MS has to ask themselves is: "What is the best strategy to get 30+ million Xbox GP users to keep their subs?" Part of the answer to that is new console hardware that the hardcore GP fan will be exited about. It doesn't have to be better than PS6, since PS6 won't have GP.

I see a future where MS has 40 million GP users on consoles (S, X, Prime) and another 10+ million on PC and is selling boat loads of games to 150 million gamers on Switch 1 & 2 and PS5 &6. Believe me when I say that PS gamers want Forza Horizon, Gears, Fable, Elder Scrolls, Call of Duty, Diablo etc.... It's money in the bank.

Btw, a GP subscriber for 7 years is equivalent to an attach rate of 21. It's ridiculously good. That's why MS loves GP.

 

[rntongo]

I don't think either year is disastrous if the tech is ready since MS isn't trying to outsell Sony in console hardware anymore. Of course, the tech is more likely to be ready for 2027 than 2026.

The real question MS has to ask themselves is: "What is the best strategy to get 30+ million Xbox GP users to keep their subs?" Part of the answer to that is new console hardware that the hardcore GP fan will be exited about. It doesn't have to be better than PS6, since PS6 won't have GP.

I see a future where MS has 40 million GP users on consoles (S, X, Prime) and another 10+ million on PC and is selling boat loads of games to 150 million gamers on Switch 1 & 2 and PS5 &6. Believe me when I say that PS gamers want Forza Horizon, Gears, Fable, Elder Scrolls, Call of Duty, Diablo etc.... It's money in the bank.

Btw, a GP subscriber for 7 years is equivalent to an attach rate of 21. It's ridiculously good. That's why MS loves GP.

Biggest thing will be what software does the new machine have? What titles would make consumers want one. I think Sony releasing at the end of 2028 would give it a business and technical advantage. I think MS should be greenlighting as many titles as possible 2025 that can release by 2028 in time for their next gen machine. Otherwise if it lacks the software then consumers will just buy current gen consoles. Switch 2, PS5 slim, PS5 pro, Series X.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I don't think so. That's the old way of thinking.

With at least 3 years of cross-gen, software doesn't really matter. It didn't even matter last time. Both Sony and MS launched with nothing special, game wise.

The Xbox Prime will just be the best place to play GP games for those who want to spend $699 or whatever on it. MS doesn't actually care if you're not ready yet to make the jump. Stay on Series X or S with your GP subscription. Who cares? As long as you stay subscribed to GP.

I don't think some people have wrapped their heads around the fact that MS doesn't care about selling to non-GP console owners. It's a net loss for them. A waste of effort. Better that this guy get a PS6 and buy Call of Duty, Fable, Gears etc... because that's the way the numbers work out.

 

[rntongo]

I don't think so. That's the old way of thinking.

With at least 3 years of cross-gen, software doesn't really matter. It didn't even matter last time. Both Sony and MS launched with nothing special, game wise.

The Xbox Prime will just be the best place to play GP games for those who want to spend $699 or whatever on it. MS doesn't actually care if you're not ready yet to make the jump. Stay on Series X or S with your GP subscription. Who cares? As long as you stay subscribed to GP.

I don't think some people have wrapped their heads around the fact that MS doesn't care about selling to non-GP console owners. It's a net loss for them. A waste of effort. Better that this guy get a PS6 and buy Call of Duty, Fable, Gears etc... because that's the way the numbers work out.

We had a global pandemic which hit software developers hard while also increasing demand for home consoles(since everyone was inside) while also constraining supply of semi-conductors. Along with a rare drought in Taiwan which decreased production of semi-conductors. All factors that drove up demand for semi-conductors. Barring any such global issues, the coming next gen period will be brutal for any company simply planning on releasing hw. Sony is working hard to justify the PS5 pro for example and they're doing a good job with the recently announced update to PSSR coming in 2026. I can see the PS5 pro and PS5 offering significant competition to the next gen devices once they release in 2027 and 2028(More so the next gen Xbox in 2027). I also expect the PS5 to drop in price soon, if not this year then next year or latest 2027. 2027 drop in prices for the PS5 pro and PS5 could increase sales during the cross gen period, putting more pressure on the next gen devices. Thats why I think the best thing to do is release end of 2028. MS had 2028 as the best year to release the next gen hw as well, but seems the Activision acquisition is pushing towards other paths.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I disagree about needing to launch with hot new games. 2021 and 2022 were light on games because of the COVID lockdowns, but 2020 launch was exactly what it was always going to be. God of War and Halo were never going to make launch, pandemic or not.

The main thing we don't agree on is that what Sony does even matters to Xbox, with their new strategy - to keep and expand GP subs and ignore the console wars. MS believes (and I agree with them) that they will NEVER pull PS ecosystem entrenched gamers over to Xbox in large numbers. There also aren't a lot of new entrants to the console market that are "free and clear" to be scooped up either. Little Jimmy's big brother has a PS and he's getting a PS as well, for example.

It's simple, figure out when Xbox S & X GP subscribers are eager for a new machine and when the tech is ready: Go for it!

I think that's sooner rather than later. The longer the narrative that MS is getting out of hardware and that they are going 3rd party persists, the more likely it is that an Xbox GP subscriber might buy a PS5/Pro. Bringing out new hardware soon (or at least announcing it) is the surefire way of signaling to GP subscribers that their Xbox home is secure.

 

[Charlietus]

I disagree about needing to launch with hot new games. 2021 and 2022 were light on games because of the COVID lockdowns, but 2020 launch was exactly what it was always going to be. God of War and Halo were never going to make launch, pandemic or not.

The main thing we don't agree on is that what Sony does even matters to Xbox, with their new strategy - to keep and expand GP subs and ignore the console wars. MS believes (and I agree with them) that they will NEVER pull PS ecosystem entrenched gamers over to Xbox in large numbers. There also aren't a lot of new entrants to the console market that are "free and clear" to be scooped up either. Little Jimmy's big brother has a PS and he's getting a PS as well, for example.

It's simple, figure out when Xbox S & X GP subscribers are eager for a new machine and when the tech is ready: Go for it!

I think that's sooner rather than later. The longer the narrative that MS is getting out of hardware and that they are going 3rd party persists, the more likely it is that an Xbox GP subscriber might buy a PS5/Pro. Bringing out new hardware soon (or at least announcing it) is the surefire way of signaling to GP subscribers that their Xbox home is secure.

Why do you think that they care so much about game pass? If they were so convinced they wouldn't have had removed day one games from standard and they wouldn't have raised the price.

As Spencer as said many times, they just care that you spend money on their games. Maybe they were going all in on game pass in 2019 to 2023, but now we can see that they aren't.

Quoting Spencer: “Game Pass as an overall part of our content and services revenue is probably 15 percent,” says Spencer. “I don't think it gets bigger than that. I think the overall revenue grows so 15 percent of a bigger number, but we don't have this future where I think 50–70 percent of our revenue comes from subscriptions.”

 

[QPlayer]

Why do you think that they care so much about game pass? If they were so convinced they wouldn't have had removed day one games from standard and they wouldn't have raised the price.

As Spencer as said many times, they just care that you spend money on their games. Maybe they were going all in on game pass in 2019 to 2023, but now we can see that they aren't.

Quoting Spencer: “Game Pass as an overall part of our content and services revenue is probably 15 percent,” says Spencer. “I don't think it gets bigger than that. I think the overall revenue grows so 15 percent of a bigger number, but we don't have this future where I think 50–70 percent of our revenue comes from subscriptions.”

I have no idea what you're talking about, Game Pass has more and better games than ever, it even includes COD, which according to the official announcement has increased the subscriber numbers. The fact that they are releasing their games on other platforms is only a profit for them, and actually for the players. However, GP is still very important to them, which is why all MS games come to the service on Day1.

 

[Charlietus]

I have no idea what you're talking about, Game Pass has more and better games than ever, it even includes COD, which according to the official announcement has increased the subscriber numbers. The fact that they are releasing their games on other platforms is only a profit for them, and actually for the players. However, GP is still very important to them, which is why all MS games come to the service on Day1.

See the comment I was responding to. Not saying that Game pass isn't important to them, just that it's not the center of their strategy.

 

[Nisaaru]

I have no idea what you're talking about, Game Pass has more and better games than ever, it even includes COD, which according to the official announcement has increased the subscriber numbers. The fact that they are releasing their games on other platforms is only a profit for them, and actually for the players. However, GP is still very important to them, which is why all MS games come to the service on Day1.

Afaik only BO6 is on GP. At least I couldn't get MW1-3 working.