Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[BRiT]

You throw enough darts and sometimes you hit the board.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What's very wrong here is that he claimed some form on insider knowledge, charging $1000 for it as if the info was that valuable. At least one person ponied up and got nothing but his guesswork, no different to spending $1000 to read our speculations here. That's low. the basis for charging that wasn't, "it's good knowledge worth that much," but, "someone somewhere will pay."

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

Soooooo....... when are we going to charge people $1000 to enter this thread?

And how should we divvy up the funds?

 

[BRiT]

Soooooo....... when are we going to charge people $1000 to enter this thread?

And how should we divvy up the funds?

Good questions ... spend more on booze or more on hookers?

 

[Grall]

What, and spend nothing on blow? C'mon...

 

[MrFox]

You throw enough darts and sometimes you hit the board.

It's all fun and games until he pokes someone's eye out.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

the fastest selling US console being launched worldwide in March. It wasn't the cheapest and it wasn't the most powerful but it was the fastest selling.

If you release a good product that appeals, people will buy it.

The March launch is a very big part it sold so well in its first year on the market. You don't get large sales in March unless you launch there. Holiday sales of the Switch weren't all that great and it was clearly beaten by the other consoles. It is selling good, but not as stellar as it seems.

 

[cheapchips]

First XB360 devkits (the Power Macs) released early 2004. Final console released late 2005. In May 2005, PowerMacs were still being used at E5. So a good 18 months between first devkits and final release in that example and only 6 months from E3's PowerMac devkits to final hardware.

In the case of PS5 being x86 and an AMD GPU, any equivalent PC will be suitable for first development. You could even start on the PS4 devkit no doubt, and improve your engine nearer the release date. Or release a first-year, unoptimised title as is usual. So not too early at all by my reckoning.

The 360's not a great example of lead times is it? They did go rather early to stop hemorrhaging cash on the Xbox.

Agree that the coming gen, more than ever, a kit slapped together from a PC will be closer than ever to final hardware.

 

[borntosoul]

Please correct me if this is not accurate. From wiki.
PS3 announced may 2005 and released Nov 2006
7 year gap.
Ps4 announced Feb 2013 and released Nov 2013
Ps4 pro announced Sep 2016 and released Nov 2016

Ps5 announced Feb 2019? Released Nov 2019? Maybe....
Edit...
Ps5 announced ??? Released Nov 2020 sound like better timing to me.

 

[Karamazov]

I'd say it's semi accurate.

Ps1 to ps2 ~6 years
Ps2 to ps3 ~6 years
Ps3 (EU release) to ps4 ~6.5 years


November 2019 would be a Good timing

 

[Mobius1aic]

That's assuming memory manufacturing conditions are back to normal. 2019 would be optimal from a cyclic standpoint, but 2020 is seeming like a more reasonable time frame now that we have the PS4 Pro and XBone X.

 

[borntosoul]

I'd say it's semi accurate.

Ps1 to ps2 ~6 years
Ps2 to ps3 ~6 years
Ps3 (EU release) to ps4 ~6.5 years


November 2019 would be a Good timing

Still counting with my fingers rotfl.
Yes 6 to 6.5 yrs gap.

 

[dobwal]

I'd say it's semi accurate.

Ps1 to ps2 ~6 years
Ps2 to ps3 ~6 years
Ps3 (EU release) to ps4 ~6.5 years


November 2019 would be a Good timing

Ps1 to ps2 ~5.5 years-Dec 94-March 00
Ps2 to ps3 ~6.5 years-Mar 00- Nov 06
Ps3 to ps4 ~7.0 years-Nov 06-Nov 13

If the trend holds true that puts the release date somewhere around spring/fall 2021.

 

[bgroovy]

First XB360 devkits (the Power Macs) released early 2004. Final console released late 2005. In May 2005, PowerMacs were still being used at E5. So a good 18 months between first devkits and final release in that example and only 6 months from E3's PowerMac devkits to final hardware.

In the case of PS5 being x86 and an AMD GPU, any equivalent PC will be suitable for first development. You could even start on the PS4 devkit no doubt, and improve your engine nearer the release date. Or release a first-year, unoptimised title as is usual. So not too early at all by my reckoning.

Yeah, a PS5 dev kit at this point could easily be a PC using off the shelf Zen and Vega components with some documentation on target capabilities. If there is anything in the SA article that's true the widespread distribution of dev kits is it. That would at least give me hope of more detailed leaks coming soon. Is pastebin still a thing? Sony could be soliciting feedback from developers still to help refine the final specs for things like memory capacity, storage, inputs, etc.

 

[dobwal]

Personally given the bog standard tech of consoles of today, I don’t see a reason not to release next gen dev kits well before release.

For Sony this is especially worthwhile given that cutting edge performance on windows/DX is literally always readily available.

 

[Skaal]

Yeah, a PS5 dev kit at this point could easily be a PC using off the shelf Zen and Vega components with some documentation on target capabilities. If there is anything in the SA article that's true the widespread distribution of dev kits is it. That would at least give me hope of more detailed leaks coming soon. Is pastebin still a thing? Sony could be soliciting feedback from developers still to help refine the final specs for things like memory capacity, storage, inputs, etc.

wouldnt count on it based on the non disclosure agreement wich is for shure in power here. This is not the usuall review embargo, i believe this kind of agreement is cabable of ruin your life if your found guilty of breaking it. I would even guess that Sony distributed serveral different Dev Kits wich all slightly differ from each other to have a method finding the Source of a possible leak.

 

[bgroovy]

wouldnt count on it based on the non disclosure agreement wich is for shure in power here. This is not the usuall review embargo, i believe this kind of agreement is cabable of ruin your life if your found guilty of breaking it. I would even guess that Sony distributed serveral different Dev Kits wich all slightly differ from each other to have a method finding the Source of a possible leak.

That's always true and there are always leaks anyway.

 

[milk]

I'd guess the first batches of kits end up being disclosed mostly only to the very seasoned and experienced staff out there. People who've proven to be professional and able of keeping their mouth shut. And people who are long past the time when they are so exited about new hardware that they can't shut the fuck up about it.
Leaks tend to happen as actual launch aproaches, and more and more people start to work with the thing. These leaks often come from people who don't care much for the industry but that happen to be involved in some way.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's always true and there are always leaks anyway.

There aren't always big leaks long before hand though. Sometimes we get very little - Switch specs were leaked only a month or so before release?

 

[AlNom]

DF's NX devkit reveal article was July 2016 fwiw.