Xbox : What should MS do next? *spawn

[BRiT]

Its always funny that all talks about the future gravitate around changes in the Copy Protection and Rights Management of the work in question. Hopefully we can note that issue exists in MS next moves and keep that topic of discussion in the bountiful number of other threads dedicated to that issue.

Déjà vu all over again.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

DRM stuff here.
Upgradeable BC/FC console range here.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Was it really? They evaluated it, but it doesn't mean that it was realistic...

Hmm, maybe you're right. The choice was certainly presented as something Sony could have done though, with the deliberate decision to forgo it to keep the architecture simple. It'd be a little misleading to say they made this choice if in reality the choice was made for them by the 1 TB/s design not actually being realistic, although no-one would pull them up on that.

Still, >200 GB/s was surely possible at added cost and complexity, even if just creating a fully duplex bus for 400 GB/s.

 

[Cjail]

This is what Cerny said:

I think you can appreciate how large our commitment to having a developer friendly architecture is in light of the fact that we could have made hardware with as much as a terabyte of bandwidth to a small internal RAM, and still did not adopt that strategy

.

 

[function]

Still rather vague.

On die or daughter die? BW between what (ROPs like 360, or entire system)? "As much as" being top end of spectrum? What level of risk?

... and who would have made it as there's currently no-one to fab it?

It's easy to talk about what you could have done, like it's nothing, when you haven't actually done it.

Still, >200 GB/s was surely possible at added cost and complexity, even if just creating a fully duplex bus for 400 GB/s.

Yeah, I don't doubt that Sony could have gone higher, and I think they made the right choice.

But MS chose a more difficult route, and people brushing their achievements off based on somewhat political comments from Sony is silly.

Seriously, who was going to put edram on a 28nm chip for Sony, or even a 32 nm chip (IBM? And who was going to design it and lay it out for Sony?)? And if was off die, how were they going to connect it? I'd love to hear these kind of details.

 

[SlimJim]

Pricecut for Europe?

I don't think it will help them in sales, but this kind of competition is always wanted.

It's a step in the good direction.

IMO they need to launch next month in the remaining areas at 299 euro.
Then, in time for holiday season (come december) they can lower the price to 249, throw in a free Kinect, a lifetime XBL Gold subscription, and 3 (MS published) games of your choosing.

People will realise that it's good value for money, and they will get an Xbox One to play some exclusive games; or even multiplatform, multiplayer oriented games, because of the 'free online'.

 

[RudeCurve]

IMO they need to launch next month in the remaining areas at 299 euro.
Then, in time for holiday season (come december) they can lower the price to 249, throw in a free Kinect, a lifetime XBL Gold subscription, and 3 (MS published) games of your choosing.

People will realise that it's good value for money, and they will get an Xbox One to play some exclusive games; or even multiplatform, multiplayer oriented games, because of the 'free online'.

Keep on dreaming man. It's already good value. Stop trying to devalue it with your FUD. If people can't afford it then they shouldn't buy it. It's as simple as that. It's a luxury item not a basic necessity like food or water....

 

[iroboto]

Still rather vague.

Seriously, who was going to put edram on a 28nm chip for Sony, or even a 32 nm chip (IBM? And who was going to design it and lay it out for Sony?)? And if was off die, how were they going to connect it? I'd love to hear these kind of details.

For reference for what function is referring to

Digital Foundry: And there wasn't really any actual guarantee of availability of four-gigabit GDDR5 modules in time for launch. That's the gamble that Sony made which seems to have paid off. Even up until very recently, the PS4 SDK docs still refer to 4GB of RAM. I guess Intel's Haswell with eDRAM is the closest equivalent to what you're doing. Why go for ESRAM rather than eDRAM? You had a lot of success with this on Xbox 360.

Nick Baker: It's just a matter of who has the technology available to do eDRAM on a single die.

Digital Foundry: So you didn't want to go for a daughter die as you did with Xbox 360?

Nick Baker: No, we wanted a single processor, like I said. If there'd been a different time frame or technology options we could maybe have had a different technology there but for the product in the timeframe, ESRAM was the best choice.

 

[SlimJim]

Keep on dreaming man. It's already good value. Stop trying to devalue it with your FUD. If people can't afford it then they shouldn't buy it. It's as simple as that. It's a luxury item not a basic necessity like food or water....

no need for

Of course it's a luxury item.

But imagine this:
If the PS4 had the weaker specs, bigger casing, external psu, 'useless' (to most consumers) tv features. Would you pay 399 of it?
The vast majority of the market doesn't think so. Even MS doesn't believe in it; hence the probable 349 price cut.

I'm just saying they need to really drop the price, take the loss, and reinstate the Xbox brand as the number 1 option for gamers
How does that sound?

edit:
MS should fund a few indie titles; and document/film the development, and publish that for all XBL subscribers to see.
Also document/film how Xbox is run; show the people who work there, give them a face. Show they have great pride in their work.
This will create a lot of goodwill, and show the world that Xbox is run by people, and not suits. (even if that's not true).

Also show an Xbox developer playing with his kids, and hear him say in a voiceover:

"It's a business, but at the end of the day, going home to my kids and playing Zoo Tycoon with children is the most beautiful thing in the world. It's what drives us"

those kind of ads would create a tremendous amount of goodwill and respect. Parents buy consoles as well; not everyone is a post-teen computernerd, consoles fanboy ( like myself ). So if they respect parents' values, then when the child is going to get a christmas/birthday present, which console is the parent going to choose?
A sterile, faceless console made by some Chinese company, or console made by Americans who also celebrate the 4th of July, and who have children as well?..
My guess is the later one. MS should hire me to restore their brand is all I'm saying

 

[Shifty Geezer]

IMO they need to launch next month in the remaining areas at 299 euro.
Then, in time for holiday season (come december) they can lower the price to 249

That'd be pretty crazy in comparison XB360, which has bundles about that price now. It would be good value, but it'd also be damned expensive for MS losing ~€100 per box.

 

[McHuj]

That'd be pretty crazy in comparison XB360, which has bundles about that price now. It would be good value, but it'd also be damned expensive for MS losing ~€100 per box.

There was good Bonus Round months/year ago with analyst Pachter and he estimated that an Xbox was worth about $1000 in revenue to MS over it's lifetime (from hardware, Live, and software sales). Assuming that's accurate, is no revenue better than diminished revenue due to short term loss?

I'm sure MS has all the projections and sales/demand curves, but if I were them I'd be concerned about things starting to snowball beyond their control with more and more undecided customers jumping to PS4 now.

If they don't react drastically in the EU soon, I think it's a silent acknowledgement that they've given up on the EU sales.

 

[RudeCurve]

no need for

Of course it's a luxury item.

But imagine this:
If the PS4 had the weaker specs, bigger casing, external psu, 'useless' (to most consumers) tv features. Would you pay 399 of it?
The vast majority of the market doesn't think so. Even MS doesn't believe in it; hence the probable 349 price cut.

I'm just saying they need to really drop the price, take the loss, and reinstate the Xbox brand as the number 1 option for gamers
How does that sound?

edit:
MS should fund a few indie titles; and document/film the development, and publish that for all XBL subscribers to see.
Also document/film how Xbox is run; show the people who work there, give them a face. Show they have great pride in their work.
This will create a lot of goodwill, and show the world that Xbox is run by people, and not suits. (even if that's not true).

Also show an Xbox developer playing with his kids, and hear him say in a voiceover:


those kind of ads would create a tremendous amount of goodwill and respect. Parents buy consoles as well; not everyone is a post-teen computernerd, consoles fanboy ( like myself ). So if they respect parents' values, then when the child is going to get a christmas/birthday present, which console is the parent going to choose?
A sterile, faceless console made by some Chinese company, or console made by Americans who also celebrate the 4th of July, and who have children as well?..
My guess is the later one. MS should hire me to restore their brand is all I'm saying

It's been proven that cheaper doesn't win console wars nor does computing power.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

There was good Bonus Round months/year ago with analyst Pachter and he estimated that an Xbox was worth about $1000 in revenue to MS over it's lifetime (from hardware, Live, and software sales).

If that was true, Xbox wouldn't have lost MS billions. If each game nets them $10 in license fees and the box has an attachment rate of 10, that's $100 from game licensing. Live is $60 pa (excluding deals that can get it cheaper) making that worth $300 over 5 years. In some cases a console will net the console a grand in revenue, but in other cases the box will be bought cheap and only play a few games, so I think the $1000 is a gross overestimation. $100 loss on hardware is a considerable expense to endure even if you get it back after three years, which is why both MS and Sony have said they're targeting selling at at least break even point. It's doable, but it'll eat into their profits and make the venture all the more questionable. If we have investors questioning whether MS should still be operating XBox, $1 billion hardware losses in a year to promote adoption, very much against the original game plan, isn't going to help the case against that.

I think there are other options to try to drive sales than a simple, heavy-handed price cut. Slashing the price like that would change perception of the XB1 platform for the rest of its days.

 

[Nisaaru]

I see the XBOX business as a way for MS to keep their OS ecosphere at the top. So cross financing that is in their best interest. But it's definitely unclear to me if MS management shares the same conclusion

 

[SlimJim]

If they already lost billions, they why was the Xbox One green lit?

I think that is another direction for a commercial complementing the new 'rebrand' which I have in mind for the Xbox One:

We might lose money on every Xbox One sold. But what we lose, is gained by millions of gamers. We provide a platform like no other so that if 1 person has a dream, he can make a game and show it to the world. All gamers are important to us which is why we have the most diverse catalogue of games. Xbox has been the number 1 for entertainment for more than a decade. So join us for the next 10 years. Because Xbox is here to stay.

$ 249

It shows that they are committed to stay in the market, even if it means losing money. So that reflects dedication.
Also; people learn that MS wants to give something back to the world, even it costs them.
If they market it like this, then people literally will warm up to the Xbox One.
PS4 will look like an expensive sterile high end machine, its only purpose being generating money > people less inclined to buy it over an Xbox.

This is news to you? The original Xbox cost MS something in the region of $5 billion. That was due in substantial part to lossy hardware thanks to a lousy nVidia contract.

I meant: how could they green lit Xbox 360 after losing billions, and then green lit Xbox One after losing billions as well?
Obviously they don't care that much about losing money, in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

If they market it like this, then people literally will warm up to the Xbox One.

Correct me if I'm wrong but what your advocating is that Microsoft initiate some kind of "for the gamers" campaign and slogan. Hmm.. now where else have I heard that phrase?

Sent from my iPhone using Forum Runner.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If they already lost billions, they why was the Xbox One green lit?

This is news to you? The original Xbox cost MS something in the region of $5 billion. That was due in substantial part to lossy hardware thanks to a lousy nVidia contract.

 

[zed]

If they already lost billions, they why was the Xbox One green lit?

Standard practice, why was the 360 greenlit after the multi billion loses of the xbox?
why is bing etc still going if they don't post profits, look at all the tech companies worth billions but have yet to show any profits.
Its all potential, xbox was important to stop PS etc taking over the living room. Of course the problem is my focusing on the living room apple/google attacked from the persons pocket

though in that figure of $1000 I'm betting eyeballs on the screen etc is counted

 

[BRiT]

*ahem* let's try to keep general business profitability and business practices and concerns out of this thread and get back on the topic of what MS should do next with XBox series

 

[Silenti]

Well. 6 of us went to Gamestop this past weekend for no other purpose than to check trade-in values and play with the controllers to see what we thought of them. All are considering a switch from MS to Sony. We have been going back and forth and shaking our heads trying to justify staying with the Xbox. We didn't directly discuss what it would take for us to stay, but some elements did come out. Consensus so far appears to be we all wanted to stay, but feel like idiots if we do. MS would have to have a major price advantage, as in $100 or more, for us to stay without any reservations. Everyone is still waffling a little, and nothing has been bought yet by anyone, but we are all kind of shaking our heads in minor disbelief.

If they cannot fix the power disparity, or the perception of the power disparity, they have to compete on price and/or game quality/exclusives. As a side note, there really should be a FPS to demo. Without it there is a problem attempting to judge. Otherwise, I'm not sure what they could do. An awesome exclusive could do it, but I have no real idea what that would be.

Feel free to skip the next part. It is a summary of what we discussed, might give some clues as to our hang-ups/ concerns to be addressed. Maybe a weakness MS could exploit in potential switchers.

1: Games are being considered something of a wash. Forza vs. GT (a wash) and Halo vs. Uncharted. It's a year for the release of Halo 5, assuming it is good. If the One is going strong then, and a lot cheaper, we could pick one up then or even a little later. Really games were hardly discussed. No one seemed to care about any of the exclusives expected or announced beyond trading Halo for Uncharted. The games talked about were all either multiplatform titles (Destiny, Diablo 3, Evolve, AC, Division) or older 360 titles to pick up on the cheap.

2: Controllers: There was little disagreement on this one. Everyone far preferred the sticks, triggers and rumble on the One. It wasn't really even close. The D-pad was considered a wash (kind of a win for MS on that one considering the past.) Everyone hated the ABXY buttons on the One, the DS4's were only considering annoying because of the labeling. Everyone also disliked the shoulder buttons on the One and the triggers on the DS4. The DS4's sticks were odd, but could be adjusted to. My wife didn't like the balance on the DS4, but quickly got over it in about 3 minutes. One other didn't care for the size, shape of the DS4 vs. the One, said he couldn't figure out how to hold it properly. Other than one comment on preferring the placement of the Xbox Home button, that was basically it. Everyone would rather have the One controllers and AA batteries they could switch on their own. Keeping in mind that everyone already owns AA rechargeables and a recharger expressly for this purpose. No one is happy about the battery life for the DS4, especially down the road and with a headset plugged in, and the same for needing a $25 adapter to use an existing headset with the One. Racing Wheel situation wasn't discussed. No one likes driving with the sticks.

3. There was some minor discussion about the lack of HBO-Go on the PS4 at this point, but it is coming and the guy in question may cancel HBO till GoT returns anyway. Some talk about PS Now (mostly laughter at pricing) and MS's recent history. Azure came up once but was basically dismissed till proven (probably my doing.) Concern about MS's sales numbers and management switch.

Interestingly, no one is really considering trading in their 360's at this point. We would get nothing out of it ($35, $60 and $60 I think) and no BC. In some ways, the worst part of the BC is the loss of Arcade titles. We all have some, and 4 have more than just a few. With those not transferring, there is actually a feeling of losing something. A loss of incentive if you will. Whereas the disc games may be kept outright or traded in, no one seems happy about losing access to their Arcade titles. I think it may stem from expecting to lose access to our disc titles to one extent or another, but it feels cheap to lose the Arcade titles. Probably illogical, but there you are. Porting the Arcade titles to the One may actually have made a difference. Maybe not the whole difference, but it would give more pause.

No one wants to buy something the others don't have and end up playing without them. If someone goes off on their own and purchases, it would probably force the hands of the others. MS may simply have burned their bridges with out group, but its not over yet.