Xbox : What should MS do next? *spawn

[Deleted member 86764]

Think about the scenario where Sony is trying to launch the PS5 and they are competing against Xbox as a service that is available on any W10 device and is leveraging cloud computational abilities that can steadily and frequently be upgraded. Think about the cost of entry barrier, where for the PS5 it will $500-$600 while for the Xbox as a service it would only be the price of a game and controller.

Well, I don't have any W10 devices and no current intention. I do have two laptops (W7 - work and personal), so if one of those hypothetically had Windows 10 (in the future I'm sure they will) and I have the option of playing games on Microsoft's service platform on my laptop, or playing games on my TV? I'd choose games on my TV.

If the great unknown of VR works and sells really well, then I doubt cloud computing will work for it. In which case that will be a massive stumbling block for a software cloud based service.

 

[iroboto]

"How" is obviously their biggest issue. They could essentially be giving the market back to Sony/Nintendo by unintentionally giving the consumers something they don't want.

We're probably rounding back to the 'What MS should do discussion' but for the sake of elaborating:

From a profit perspective MS only gets money devices and accessories, XBLG subscriptions and purchases through their digital store and the MS store. While they may collect profit from selling the hardware, the cost of acquisition is likely much greater then any profits from the hardware.
That being said, the W10 market is over 80 million devices, probably a small percentage of those devices can run games at the level of Xbox One and above, but overtime as Xbox is kept as a standstill/baseline, that percentage will continue to increase. Cost of acquisition for PC gaming is very little comparatively to Xbox One, so it's desirable to put more focus there for software and device sales. The chances that there will be Xbox Exclusives is still very strong - Xbox being the brand and the software it's married to, the hardware becomes agnostic.

Recall that going forward, all Xbox One accessories (kinect, controllers, steering wheels,etc) are 100% compatible and forward compatible with all Windows devices forever *. The transition for me from Xbox One to a serious gaming PC will have minimal impact if I can move all my device accessories over with minimal cost implications.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

I agree and completely comprehend all of what you're saying...

I guess, for me it's a hard sell because the reality is I don't want to play games on PC. I've been looking into it recently, if I wanted to I could get a beefy PC without too much issue. I just don't want to, it doesn't appeal to me anymore.

I guess the next Xbox could be a little dongle in the TV. And that could definitely work (and I'd buy it). It just depends on whether VR and suchlike kick off. If they do, that dongle device is screwed.


Edit: just to clarify, it'd be screwed because of huge latency issues.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

What you are describing is a steam machine Shifty. There's already something like that on the market and people don't seem willing to buy that instead of consoles. These machines are running their own dedicated Steam OS which can play games just as easily as consoles and even support controllers.

Except that Steam Machines only have the cache behind them for PC gamers. Why would a PC gamer buy a Steam machine? It's a dumb idea to buy a dedicated system. Steam Machines also don't have exclusive titles. Xbox is a brand. Xbox has exclusives. Xbox has an entire ecosystem that goes beyond just gaming. Xbox is integrated directly into W10.

You'll still have the marketing, you'll still have the "Only Available on Xbox" branding for advertisements. The only difference will be that the meaning changes, it means only on the Xbox App. And that Xbox app will be available to any W10 machine or you could buy a 3rd party Xbox Machine from Dell or Asus or anybody else for that simple "plug and play" if that's what you're into (because you like to waste money for ease of set-up).

I mean, let's get real. The benefits of console gaming used to be that games "just worked". Now games come with Day 1 patches that require hour long downloads before enabling play or enabling on-line play. The distinctions between consoles and PC's have been becoming more grey since the end of last Gen and this Gen they are virtually indistinguishable.

 

[iroboto]

I agree and completely comprehend all of what you're saying...

I guess, for me it's a hard sell because the reality is I don't want to play games on PC. I've been looking into it recently, if I wanted to I could get a beefy PC without too much issue. I just don't want to, it doesn't appeal to me anymore.

I guess the next Xbox could be a little dongle in the TV. And that could definitely work (and I'd buy it). It just depends on whether VR and suchlike kick off. If they do, that dongle device is screwed.


Edit: just to clarify, it'd be screwed because of huge latency issues.

It might be as simple that going forward they expect more surface level devices that will help become their 'baseline' for performance going forward. I'm not entirely sure on the 'how' as you write. I just know that:

a) despite how well PS4 and Xbox One are selling I largely suspect that both Sony, Nintendo and MS know that the market has shrunk as a result of mobile gaming. So while today it's still charting well, it does not imply it will keep this rate up over the life of the generation. So last gen was 80+ million devices, maybe it's now going to be 70, or 60 million devices, or maybe if you look at the collective pie: Wii + X360 + PS3 = total hardware sales will drop considerably, and the pie is now fixed and shrinking. (and we equally see both PC and Mobile back on the rise for instance).

b) there might be away to get you to the W10 ecosystem without you needing to buy a console, perhaps the battle for the living room is over, as in the winner of the living room, and dinner table, are family members looking down at their phones. So what if I could convince you that your future console is your phone, tablet, or hybrid device Continuum is already here. But in 5 years where is continuum? Surface book has a dockable GPU, that should fit very well with explicit Multi-Adaptor for DX12 games in the near future.

All you'd have to do is wire it up to your large screen TV. The wireless dongle may or may not be built into the device, but there is a USB port for that. The future is coming! For big screen big power gaming, there will always be a niche market for that, but at least this time they won't be left out, like how they were when MS went the console route.

heh, in the worst case scenario, lets talk about Surface Hub. The large ass TV screen that supports multitouch, gestures, pen, etc. What if that was the new W10 living room device. Supports high quality gaming as well. MS has a lot of different devices to pivot to.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Well, I don't have any W10 devices and no current intention. I do have two laptops (W7 - work and personal), so if one of those hypothetically had Windows 10 (in the future I'm sure they will) and I have the option of playing games on Microsoft's service platform on my laptop, or playing games on my TV? I'd choose games on my TV.

Huh? What? I'm missing the disconnect here. With Xbox as a service you could play Xbox games on your laptop, if you so choose to do so. If you can't figure out how to cast your laptop or connect your laptop to your TV, then you could still buy an Xbox Machine that would plug into your TV so you wouldn't have to use your laptop. You're just wasting money, because your laptop probably has an HDMI output and you would get the same experience, but hey... whatever works for you.

Customer choice, that's the point.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Customer choice, that's the point.

And if the consumer chooses virtual reality?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What you are describing is a steam machine Shifty. There's already something like that on the market and people don't seem willing to buy that instead of consoles. These machines are running their own dedicated Steam OS which can play games just as easily as consoles and even support controllers.

Only in design. Steam machines don't have the backing of a decent console marketing firm targeting console gamers. They cost too much for console gamers. The fractured market is too confusing for console gamers. The software doesn't scale to users other devices, unlike the potential future of Xbox, so you can't buy a game on Steam and play it on your Windows Phone (connected to a controller and TV, if you wish).

So in stark contrast to Steam Boxes, MS can release a brand new XBox and market it as such to the existing console market, with the added value 'play your games on your whole family of Windows devices'. That's very different to Valve creating a consolified PC and targeting PC gamers who already use Steam to stick a box under their TV to play their Steam library instead of on the desktop.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Virtuosity was released in 1995. VR still doesn't exist 20 years later, and when it does come to fruition, it will require more computational power than any closed box, consumer level piece of hardware will be able to provide. It will require networking capabilities and cloud computations, which actually makes the Xbox as a service the more likely avenue than a PS5 or Nintendo Mario Has Nicer Pants addition.

Are you serious? A closed box will definitely more appropriate for the foreseeable future.

 

[iroboto]

And if the consumer chooses virtual reality?

An interesting counter point. VR is fairly cutting edge. Which means the market is still immature and the type of games being released for it, and the hardware is immature. It may be an amazing experience, or at least mature to one, but I have a strong feeling it won't be that from the get go. Having said that, individuals interested in the cutting edge are willing to pony up for either a PC or a console that can support it. But it's doubtful that when PS VR is released, it will take the industry by storm. (just from my experience with it. High entry cost, lots of R&D still required from game programmers, engines, hardware etc, to make sure the user doesn't get sick). VR Experiences (movies, porn, sports) is more likely to eclipse VR gaming by several magnitudes imo.

I don't think i'm out of line to suggest that iOS gaming far eclipses OSX gaming. Hearthstone is Blizzards new bread and butter, with much fewer operating costs than WoW but the same revenue base. The same goes with Minecraft, Dota, LoL, etc. Gaming from a profit perspective is likely more about reach and accessibility, than it is about the hardcore immersive experience. If i were a betting man, the most popular and profitable games going forward would be able to run on passively cooled systems going forward.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Are you serious? A closed box will definitely more appropriate for the foreseeable future.

I'm absolutely serious. Do you have any idea the computational capabilities that Universities and industries around the world currently have? Yet, even with those vast resources - floors full of dedicated servers, they aren't able to actually provide a demonstration of what it is you think VR will achieve?

If they can't do that, what makes you believe that there's any point in the near future that a consumer level device will be able to do so?

Your demand for VR is no different at this point than my demand for a hoverboard or self drying clothes. #Backtothefuturedaywasthisweek

 

[Deleted member 86764]

And the people still rocking 3mb internet lines? Are they going to be able to get 1920x1080 / 4k at 90hz / 120hz or whatever come next. Are they going to have a decent experience with not only resolution and framerate but also latency? You can have the most powerful system on the server-side, if the internet connections are poor then it's never going to be suitable.

VR obviously does work in a closed box environment as all current implementations are exactly that. None of those people have to worry about their internet and latencies.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Your demand for VR is no different at this point than my demand for a hoverboard or self drying clothes. #Backtothefuturedaywasthisweek

All clothes are self-drying. [emoji6]

(Couldn't resist - sorry!)

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I think you're missing the point. The point is that if MS pulls this off, there won't be a console industry. They aren't giving the market to Sony/Nintendo, they are destroying the market entirely.

I don't follow this reasoning. Microsoft are as likely to lose a bunch of people to competitors offering a conventional console model as they are get people to invest in Windows 10 for gaming. PC/Macs, in-betweens like Steambox and consoles have different pros and cons and these aren't going to disappear because Microsoft will it.

I game on a console not because of cost (and trying not being an arse about it but I could drop five grand on a gaming PC tomorrow without stressing my budget) but because it's a slim piece of hardware that sits under the TV and is already ready to game with virtually zero maintenance. I like that I don't need to worry about managing it like I do a PC.

Gaming hardware is not interchangeable for everybody. This is an old, old debate.

 

[function]

... trying not being an arse about it but I could drop five grand on a gaming PC tomorrow without stressing my budget...

Arse!

(I can't even afford a Bone )

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Arse! (I can't even afford a Bone )

I'm 44 and have been working (hard!) since I was 18. As you get older you accumulate better quality things that need replacing less and begin to to spend less. Particularly once your mortgage is minuscule

Young: lots of time to play games, no money to buy them.
Older: lots of money to buy games, no time to play them.

 

[MrFox]

MS should stop making consoles and focus on PC.

Saying this a year ago was perceived as fanboy trolling. But now it is probable, so console has to be dead.

I talked about this arguing method before on B3D when those who didn't care about ownership wanted discs to disappear by force regardless of what choices were available to them, "if I don't win, everybody must lose." That is not sane.

 

[ArcticCircle]

Young: lots of time to play games, no money to buy them.
Older: lots of money to buy games, no time to play them.

As always, there's another option. Be like me - scumbag 40 year old freelancer, who works only as much it's needed to get certain basic income level and play games as much as you like and buy everything cheaply from Steam sales and gather backlog so big that no matter how much time you have, you'll never play all the games anyway

On topic. I wonder how xbox console exclusive games like Forza and Halo series fit in this new model. You can buy Office for mac, but can't buy Halo 5 for PC (even if you have Xbox Live subscription). It don't seem right. It should be - buy Halo for whatever machine can run it, mac, pc xbox, playstation, nintendo... if you use xbox live in some way.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Microsoft shouldn't drop their console. They should maintain having a gaming platform that launches in the $400 price range available for those that cannot afford a capable gaming platform in a more expensive price range. The console helps PC and the PC helps console. If they go exclusively with the PC, they lose the ability to sell Halo, Forza, Gears etc to people on limited budgets. With DX12, Windows 10 and Live, they can have one ecosystem spread across multiple hardware platforms that hit all of the right price points. Going console only or PC only, they lose out. It's not about selling hardware. It's about selling software. They need the devices to be able to sell the software.

I think over time mobile devices and PCs with integrated graphics will challenge some of the console hardware market, but there will probably always be a large consumer market for the $400 box.

 

[iroboto]

Hmm. I guess it's not quite the end for Xbox console yet?
https://twitter.com/XboxP3/status/657997454638387200