Neither. Rather 99% of the people who are inevitably affected by this lockout, will be legit, paying users. Not the pirates they seem so worried about, since they'll probably already be spoofing the MS servers by that point in time.
It's just typical DRM idiocy.
My expectation is that at most, if I were to buy an Xbox One, that I'd be locked out for no more than a couple of days in the life of the console, most likely from a severe weather event.