Xbox Business Update Podcast | Xbox Everywhere Direction Discussion
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It smells like a Steam Deck with Windows. We'll have to see if it's more intuitive than the Steam Deck.
Here’s the Steam on Xbox evidence Microsoft didn’t want you to see
Microsoft posted and removed a new Xbox UI image with Steam games listed.www.theverge.com
Hmmm, interesting move by Xbox if they implement this.
Lmao yes they would be but fundamentally we’re seeing MS Gaming flirting with primarily becoming a third party publisher so they’re trying to reconcile that with the other competing platforms by allowing their game stores onto the Xbox PC hybrid. That way there’s less incentive for having a Steam OS device.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Not a 3rd party when they are still putting out hardware. More hardware than Sony even if reports are true.
Moving away from the closed systems like the Xbox 360
I think you’re using a lot of terms interchangeably here which is causing a lot of unnecessary counter posts on this thread. Being a third party publisher implies you are developing content for a platform you did not develop for.
I called this out to you several posts back that I said you were implying that they were becoming Sega. I said that it was absurd because Sega does not have a platform. They only develop content for other platforms. This didn't seem to connect. When you say they are becoming primarily a third party publisher the only way that they could happen is if they are putting out more content on third party platforms than they are on their own platform. In which your implication is that they would make more money producing content for other platforms than their own.
It should be clear that:
Xbox is a platform
Windows is a platfrom
Android is a platform
Netflix, Disney+ etc.
They all offer an underlying infrastructure (Xbox Servers, Users tools, store, development support, marketing etc), tools (PIX, DirectX, XCode, Visual Studio etc), store, development tools to support content and applications built ontop of their foundation.All of them are technically hardware agnostic and all of them who produce software produce more third party content than their own.
So this idea that they are producing more content for other platforms than their own is incorrect.
What you seem to be talking about is how one _accesses_ the platform. Xbox was traditionally only accessible via a console. Netflix was originally only accessible by mail. Netflix has left that old service to something else. Xbox is now making similiar movements but for a different reason.
If we take your words at face value, what you are suggesting is that they will give up the platform to just produce content only. Xbox is by far one of the largest gaming platforms there is today. The difficulty of creating such a successful platform is monumental. You only need to look over to Epic to see how hard it is to even get a successful store up (most played game, + handing out tons of free games each month), let alone the level of subscriptions and layered on services that Xbox provides. MS will never give up on the Xbox Platform. When you have such a massive foothold into an industry that has significant revenue available for decades on end. You're not going to give that up. Every business has to tear down and redefine itself over time. That's just reality of any business. Exiting, that's just plain foolish.
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Steam integration on Xbox could hide a very different motivation than expanding the library. Abandoning the ERA method for game development and betting on Win32 is a decision that indicates an intention to simplify the challenges of game development, but I wonder... what about already published games?Here’s the Steam on Xbox evidence Microsoft didn’t want you to see
Microsoft posted and removed a new Xbox UI image with Steam games listed.
Hmmm, interesting move by Xbox if they implement this.
Jez Corden assures that it is part of a larger plan, where Microsoft seeks to implement a significant change by opting for Win32 as the main platform for future generations.
This change involves the gradual elimination of the "ERA" environment, used until now on the Xbox One and Series X consoles, as well as in running PC games.
This has always raised questions about their ability to take full advantage of the hardware's performance -as you can see in the comparisosn between PS5 and XSX-, as well as a choice that somewhat isolated them from developing games on PC. And this could pose a problem in the future, considering all the years they've been using the "ERA" environment.
Is Xbox getting Steam integration?!
Microsoft just "leaked" an Xbox interface mock up which has Steam game integration.
www.windowscentral.com
I'm saying if the primary driver of growth remains their third party publishing business you can see a scenario where their own gaming platform gets less emphasis and atrophies away or becomes a shell of its current state.
1.) The current primary driver for MS Gaming's growth is third party games from its Activision acquistion
2.) With their titles available on competing platforms, MS Gaming is explicitly aiming for a larger install base and revenue stream larger than what Xbox hardware alone can provide.
3.) If the primary revenue and player growth depends on publishing for competing platforms(which already sell more hw) the Xbox hw as we know it will get less investment and mindshare from within.
4.)We can already see this with Forza and all Xbox titles in the works to come to Playstation which is selling quite well with its hw as well with the rumoured Xbox OEM hw partnership for a handheld.
5.) On PC, MS Gaming is opening its platform to rival storefronts like Steam and Epic and these platforms dwarf MS Gaming's current PC gaming store fronts which undercuts MS Gaming's own in-house PC gaming ecosystem.
6.) Sony and Nintendo are going to continue guarding their exclusive titles even if they provide timed exclusives, MS Gaming is making moves to become increasingly open about bringing its games to other platforms and supporting competing gaming store fronts.
7.) MS Gaming recognizes the value of Xbox as a brand so they wont outrightly abandon it however the simultaneous drive to expand as a 3rd party publisher means fewer exclusive benefits to being within their ecosystem.
My fundamental argument is third party publishing is already the primary growth engine for MS Gaming and the implications for that are listed above. One thing though is if they can make a nice handheld device likely similar to the Steam Deck or even possibly as closed as the Switch. That could be a nice pivot but from what we hear this is not the move they are making at the moment. Its an Xbox branded handheld PC running Windows produced by ASUS. What benefit does one get from staying in this ecosystem if they can get everything on Playstation or Steam or Nintendo?
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Because they don't get GamePass, which is the ultimate console exclusive
I had Gamepass ultimate from the day I got my Series X in November 2020 until recently when they did the price update. I just went down to the cheapest Gamepass tier. Gamepass Ultimate was a much better deal when Playstation plus(which is a must have if you want to play online) didnt have as many available titles but today you get a ton of old games there. On top of all the playstation exclusives plus now you'll be able to get all Xbox titles on playstation as well. A lot of people will wait to see the reception a AAA Xbox first party title launching for free on Gamepass performs, and if its good they'll buy it on playstation. I think this is what will happen with Fable or Blade or Contra, or Gears 6. Alternatively, buying a steam OS device or PC with Epic Games store front gives you a world of all the other games you cant get on Playstation or Nintendo. So you can see how a considerable people will prefer Playstation and or Nintendo + a PC.
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We'll see. In my opinion, Game Pass will only become a really strong platform from now on. As more and more MS first-party games appear, people will increasingly feel that Game Pass is a much better deal where they can enjoy these great games for much less money. In my experience, there is already a noticeable increase in interest in GP Ultimate, this phenomenon can be observed on the game forums where I am present. And this is due to the mass release of MS first-party titles recently. Soon, within a relatively short period of time, 10-12 MS games will suddenly appear on the service, namely Day1. With such a flood of games, more and more people will realize that the $70 game prices are a waste of money compared to a quality, cheaper subscription service.
But, the fact is that the current sales process of the Xbox console in this form is not enough to properly serve what MS expects from Game Pass, so they are looking for new ways for it. Hence the PC line and the OEM strategy. It's hard to get a full picture of MS's strategy with the current hardware situation, but it's undeniable that Game Pass is their top priority and they're going to build that strategy. Proof of this is that they're putting all their games on GP on Day 1, even COD.
You bring up solid points about the appealing outlook ahead, but you lost me at "people will realize that the $70 game prices are a waste of money compared to a quality, cheaper subscription service." Sounds a bit presumptive especially given that a lot of people argue subscription services can diminish the quality of titles. Moreover empirically, Gamepass doesnt have a great track record YET, of delivering bug free high caliber AAA titles. I can see significant value in a subscription gaming service but theres also clear benefits to simply buying a game when you like it, whether its $70 or discounted to $45. If MS Gaming consistently offers top notch AAA titles beyond COD onto Gamepass for 2+ years then your argument will be much much stronger. Of course this hinges on the subscription price not jumping too high and pushing away potential subscribers.
Yes which goes back to my point number 2 from earlier on:
2.) With their titles available on competing platforms, MS Gaming is explicitly aiming for a larger install base and revenue stream larger than what Xbox hardware alone can provide.
But consumers love a cohesive unique ecosystem, and on these other platforms, GamePass is either unavailable and will never be(Sony and Nintendo's consoles) or is overshadowed by other main players( Steam and Epic's game stores/services on PC). By providing their titles onto these competing platforms with minimal exclusivity benefits tied to their Gamepass service, they're essentially leaving a very clear path to deprioritize the prospects of GamePass as the primary revenue engine. On the other hand, if Gamepass was to become no. 1 on PC and becomes defacto the place to play everywhere, it wont matter if they provide these games elsewhere. You could get them on Gamepass as part of your subscription yet you have to buy them elsewhere. But I think this scenario is unlikely to happen as things stand today.
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Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Meh. I don't know anyone actually switching ecosystems. You're still stuck in a console war mentality.
Many of us are fine with our GP boxes and don't care enough about a new Naughty Dog game every 7 years to bother getting a PS5 Pro for $700.
PS owners can pay $70 for Indiana Jones, FH5, Gears, CoD, Diablo, Doom, ES6, Fable etc... That's good for us GP subscribers. They can fund all those games for us.
MS isn't trying to take over the world with GP anymore, but I could still see them gaining 3-5 million subs every year for awhile.
Many of us are fine with our GP boxes and don't care enough about a new Naughty Dog game every 7 years to bother getting a PS5 Pro for $700.
PS owners can pay $70 for Indiana Jones, FH5, Gears, CoD, Diablo, Doom, ES6, Fable etc... That's good for us GP subscribers. They can fund all those games for us.
MS isn't trying to take over the world with GP anymore, but I could still see them gaining 3-5 million subs every year for awhile.
For those of us who are used to not having to spend a lot of money on games, Game Pass means a lot. Just one example: last summer I bought a game for full price, and it was a deluxe edition, and... I played with it about a quarter of the time I originally planned.., because I'm much more interested in three other games that I play regularly. Well, these three addictive games happen to be in Game Pass.Meh. I don't know anyone actually switching ecosystems. You're still stuck in a console war mentality.
Many of us are fine with our GP boxes and don't care enough about a new Naughty Dog game every 7 years to bother getting a PS5 Pro for $700.
PS owners can pay $70 for Indiana Jones, FH5, Gears, CoD, Diablo, Doom, ES6, Fable etc... That's good for us GP subscribers. They can fund all those games for us.
MS isn't trying to take over the world with GP anymore, but I could still see them gaining 3-5 million subs every year for awhile.
From now on, I'll think twice about what to buy at full price, but I'm sure I won't buy a game that I haven't tried out for several hours or days beforehand. GP is the perfect solution for this too, because the games that are included also serve as a kind of Demo. I don't have to buy them, I try them out and if I like them, I play them regularly. Then I can even decide if I want to buy one of these games, or upgrade to the premium add-on if I want to support the developers because I like that game so much.
This subscription gaming model has fundamentally changed my video game habits, and in a very pleasant direction. And as more and more games are added, it will become more and more valuable to me. I can access any MS game at any time.
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this move by Google, adding many more Android games to Google Play Games to play on PC, could even favour a portable hybrid Xbox even more. With Microsoft's upcoming foray into the Windows-based handheld console sector, Google Play Games support could expand even further in the future.
I mean, the PC is becoming like this super device, super store, where console, PC, mobile games, etc, all converge.
I mean, the PC is becoming like this super device, super store, where console, PC, mobile games, etc, all converge.
Google Play Games - Play mobile games on our Windows PC platform
Play mobile games on PC with Google Play Games beta. Experience a bigger screen and more controls on Google's mobile to PC gaming platform.
play.google.com
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
The other thing I've noticed with MS lately is that the further we get from the big 2020 game announcements that are finally starting to ship, the less early they are announcing new games.
It's interesting that we knew about Fable and State of Decay 3 six years before launch, but South of Midnight was only about a year ago. I think we're going to find that MS has a lot more coming than we realize. They seem to be trying to get to 1 year announcements slowly over time. They have at least 35 teams working on games. If they take 5 years per game on average they should get to 7 games per year. That's pretty amazing value for GP.
Let's use CoD as a marker for a release year. So from CoD to CoD, if everything goes according to plan:
CoD BO6
MS Flight Sim 2024
Indiana Jones
Avowed
South of Midnight
Doom: DA
Outerworlds 2
There's your 7 games. Plus remaster of Tony Hawk 3 & 4 and a rumored Oblivion remaster.
Plus day one publishing agreements for GP:
Ninja Gaiden 2 & 4
33 Immortals
Expedition 33
Towerborne
Why would I ever leave the Xbox platform? GP is like gaming gold now.
It's interesting that we knew about Fable and State of Decay 3 six years before launch, but South of Midnight was only about a year ago. I think we're going to find that MS has a lot more coming than we realize. They seem to be trying to get to 1 year announcements slowly over time. They have at least 35 teams working on games. If they take 5 years per game on average they should get to 7 games per year. That's pretty amazing value for GP.
Let's use CoD as a marker for a release year. So from CoD to CoD, if everything goes according to plan:
CoD BO6
MS Flight Sim 2024
Indiana Jones
Avowed
South of Midnight
Doom: DA
Outerworlds 2
There's your 7 games. Plus remaster of Tony Hawk 3 & 4 and a rumored Oblivion remaster.
Plus day one publishing agreements for GP:
Ninja Gaiden 2 & 4
33 Immortals
Expedition 33
Towerborne
Why would I ever leave the Xbox platform? GP is like gaming gold now.
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Right. And you aren't married to it, either. I play games from Gamepass on console and PC, but I also play games from other PC storefronts. And sometimes, I find a game on Gamepass that I like and buy it somewhere else.
btw, people aren't talking enough about the fact that native XBox games will be able to run on PCs.
There's talk of updating the Windows API to provide native support so that XBox games will run on any PC.
This is great for those who have libraries from years ago. The only thing preventing it from running today is a slightly different API on the part of the respective operating systems, but it's purely a software issue that depends solely on adding that API to the current Windows operating system.
Microsoft is moving toward an OEM model, in which it shares store profits with manufacturers, and that's why hybrid consoles will be cheaper because they'll be subsidized by the royalties they'll generate for the manufacturer. And we're going to see VERY HIGH-END consoles subsidized, with the best of the PC.
The era of little toy consoles like the PS5 and Series X is over.
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