Xbox Business Update Podcast | Xbox Everywhere Direction Discussion

[Johnny Awesome]

Why? Like I said : GP Ultimate = Attach rate of 21 over the life of a console. It's insane.

Everyone here should know better than to take everything execs say as the gospel truth until the end of time. Things change.

Besides, it's possible it's true that GP revenue might only remain at 15% as PS gamers buy CoD, Indiana Jones, Forza Horizon 5 etc...

 

[eastmen]

I disagree about needing to launch with hot new games. 2021 and 2022 were light on games because of the COVID lockdowns, but 2020 launch was exactly what it was always going to be. God of War and Halo were never going to make launch, pandemic or not.

The main thing we don't agree on is that what Sony does even matters to Xbox, with their new strategy - to keep and expand GP subs and ignore the console wars. MS believes (and I agree with them) that they will NEVER pull PS ecosystem entrenched gamers over to Xbox in large numbers. There also aren't a lot of new entrants to the console market that are "free and clear" to be scooped up either. Little Jimmy's big brother has a PS and he's getting a PS as well, for example.

It's simple, figure out when Xbox S & X GP subscribers are eager for a new machine and when the tech is ready: Go for it!

I think that's sooner rather than later. The longer the narrative that MS is getting out of hardware and that they are going 3rd party persists, the more likely it is that an Xbox GP subscriber might buy a PS5/Pro. Bringing out new hardware soon (or at least announcing it) is the surefire way of signaling to GP subscribers that their Xbox home is secure.

But why would xbox s and x GP subscribers ever need a new machine? Just stream forever on the xbox series or just stream on your tv or fire stick or whatever. You don't need an xbox. That is why this strategy is going to lead to the end of traditional xbox hardware.

Even now xbox hardware isn't even the best console hardware to play the multi platform xbox games. At best we can say its the earliest way to play xbox first party games.

I think at this point in time as long as they continue releasing their former / future exclusives to playstation and soon switch 2 the flow of market share is going to go from xbox to those other platforms. Ms will start to loose more and more money no longer getting their % of game sales from the console and game pass will slow down in growth and may even decline.

Right now I don't see a point in the next xbox for me. I am most likely going to build a living room gaming pc when its time to replace my series and just move to a fire stick for the bedroom instead of the series s.

 

[QPlayer]

But why would xbox s and x GP subscribers ever need a new machine? Just stream forever on the xbox series or just stream on your tv or fire stick or whatever. You don't need an xbox. That is why this strategy is going to lead to the end of traditional xbox hardware.

Even now xbox hardware isn't even the best console hardware to play the multi platform xbox games. At best we can say its the earliest way to play xbox first party games.

I think at this point in time as long as they continue releasing their former / future exclusives to playstation and soon switch 2 the flow of market share is going to go from xbox to those other platforms. Ms will start to loose more and more money no longer getting their % of game sales from the console and game pass will slow down in growth and may even decline.

Right now I don't see a point in the next xbox for me. I am most likely going to build a living room gaming pc when its time to replace my series and just move to a fire stick for the bedroom instead of the series s.

The game dumping that is coming could cause a significant increase in Game Pass subscription numbers and probably will. All first-party titles are Day1 GP. People will inevitably realize that they can get all MS first-party games as part of a cheaper subscription, so they don't have to buy every game for $70. While a few titles a year came from MS to GP, it didn't have much of an impact, but starting this year, a lot more games are coming.

You can build a PC for the Xbox ecosystem, I'm thinking about it too. However, desktop Xbox PCs will probably come, similar to the just announced OEM handheld Xbox. I'm almost sure of that. Therefore, it would be best if MS showed off this machines at this year's GDC or Showcase.

 

[eastmen]

The game dumping that is coming could cause a significant increase in Game Pass subscription numbers and probably will. All first-party titles are Day1 GP. People will inevitably realize that they can get all the better MS games as part of a cheaper subscription, so they don't have to buy every game for $70. While a few titles a year came from MS to GP, it didn't have much of an impact, but starting this year, a lot more games are coming.

You can build a PC for the Xbox ecosystem, I'm thinking about it too. However, desktop Xbox PCs will probably come, similar to the just announced OEM handheld Xbox. I'm almost sure of that. Therefore, it would be best if MS showed off this hardwares at this year's GDC or Showcase.

The games have to be good. MS has released a few stinkers and have delayed upcoming games. Its looking like they made some bad purchases and its forced them down this third party route.

I think xbox pc is a non starter. People will buy the hardware and then install steam for any non game pass games leaving MS with only game pass subscriptions. They will loose out on their current take from all 3rd party sales on their consoles.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

But why would xbox s and x GP subscribers ever need a new machine? Just stream forever on the xbox series or just stream on your tv or fire stick or whatever. You don't need an xbox. That is why this strategy is going to lead to the end of traditional xbox hardware.

Because they want one. You don't. But all the GP Xbox owners I know want new hardware. Besides, cloud is the future, but it's not here yet.

Most people are invested in their platforms and existing libraries. That's the key thing that MS found out this gen - losing last gen was a fatal blow to them ever overtaking Sony in console sales. They certainly believe that (and I agree). It cuts both ways though: PS owners want to stay with PS and Xbox owners want to stay with Xbox. There's another compelling reason to stay with Xbox - GamePass. It's the ultimate console exclusive that is only on Xbox. Many people never want to go PC, for many reasons argued ad nauseum around here. Some disagree.

 

[QPlayer]

The games have to be good. MS has released a few stinkers and have delayed upcoming games. Its looking like they made some bad purchases and its forced them down this third party route.

I think xbox pc is a non starter. People will buy the hardware and then install steam for any non game pass games leaving MS with only game pass subscriptions. They will loose out on their current take from all 3rd party sales on their consoles.

But why would they buy the games if they subscribe to Game Pass and get them all at once, always Day1? It is unlikely that the PC GP will always be at this level in terms of content. As they develop and offer a better alternative, the value of the subscription may increase in the eyes of players.

Who would buy an Xbox PC? If they price it well and provide more price segments, then it could be a suitable offer for the current 30-40 million Xbox users.

Plus for those who want to use their console-formed PC as a console in a plug&play and remote control way.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

The thing I've been trying to emphasize over the last month is that if you're thinking that MS needs strategies to "beat Sony" in the "console wars", then I think you're thinking of it wrong.

MS just needs to keep existing Xbox ecosystem gamers, most of whom are GP subscribers, happy and engaged while also making a ton of money on PC, PS and Switch.

They of course WANT to grow Xbox base and GP subscribers, but they don't NEED to.

The Xbox Prime doesn't have to be better than a PS6. In fact, as long as it's good enough, shipping earlier than Sony has the chance of growing the base a little even with some Sony gamers tired of waiting who see the value of GamePass. The ecosystems are largely locked down, but there's still a small amount of fluidity as well as new teenagers coming into the mix etc...

The long game is the cloud, which might take a while yet and MS needs to make money in the meantime. It's not going to shock me when MS is the number 1 publisher on Playstation at some point.

 

[Nisaaru]

Because they want one. You don't. But all the GP Xbox owners I know want new hardware. Besides, cloud is the future, but it's not here yet.

Most people are invested in their platforms and existing libraries. That's the key thing that MS found out this gen - losing last gen was a fatal blow to them ever overtaking Sony in console sales. They certainly believe that (and I agree). It cuts both ways though: PS owners want to stay with PS and Xbox owners want to stay with Xbox. There's another compelling reason to stay with Xbox - GamePass. It's the ultimate console exclusive that is only on Xbox. Many people never want to go PC, for many reasons argued ad nauseum around here. Some disagree.

I always wondered why they wouldn't try to make a deal with a few 3rd party studios to extend Gamepass to owned digital PS licenses. People link their accounts for a lot of games and game studios should have an idea who has a valid digital license.

It would make moving easier and make some extra cash for these companies without any real cost as almost nobody buys the same game again for both platforms.

 

[rntongo]

Everything on Xbox's PC gaming handheld "Kennan"

Microsoft is working on a partner gaming handheld with ASUS, set to launch later this year.

www.windowscentral.com

More details on the upcoming Xbox handheld. An Xbox OEM handheld device made by MS and ASUS. Capable of launching other app stores besides the Xbox Game Pass PC store. This sounds like MS testing the waters for a third party publisher future. Blending the Xbox and PC worlds. If they execute this well and its a success they could do the same for the next gen of Xbox hardware instead of a closed system like the current Xbox.

 

[Cappuccino]

All first-party titles are Day1 GP. People will inevitably realize that they can get all MS first-party games as part of a cheaper subscription, so they don't have to buy every game for $70.

This has been the case for years, when are people supposed to 'inevitably realize' this?

 

[mr magoo]

Because they want one. You don't. But all the GP Xbox owners I know want new hardware. Besides, cloud is the future, but it's not here yet.

Most people are invested in their platforms and existing libraries. That's the key thing that MS found out this gen - losing last gen was a fatal blow to them ever overtaking Sony in console sales. They certainly believe that (and I agree). It cuts both ways though: PS owners want to stay with PS and Xbox owners want to stay with Xbox. There's another compelling reason to stay with Xbox - GamePass. It's the ultimate console exclusive that is only on Xbox. Many people never want to go PC, for many reasons argued ad nauseum around here. Some disagree.

As i see it, i will get new xbox day one. Why? Becouse i am already in in the ecosystem wich is GP. For me costs of buying in to new console are very low, as long as i have GP i have all so its basically cost of new device. Thats it. They need to make sure that new xbox is compatible with XSX/S and thats all.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

This has been the case for years, when are people supposed to 'inevitably realize' this?

I agree that it's not a given that eventually people will "see the light" and get GP.

Nevertheless, the more value MS adds to the service and the more exposure that Forza Horizon, Sea of Thieves, Indiana Jones, Gears of War (probably coming to PS) etc... get on rival platforms, the more likely that some people get the GP bug.

We all know the reasons to get GP, but here are some reasons not to for Joe gamer:

1. I only play Call of Duty (or insert X game here) (my older son falls into this category)
2. I want to own my games (many people here on this forum)
3. The PC app is crap
4. I can't get GP on my hardware

This list probably limits GP to less than 20% of the market. Reports suggest 35 million right now, which is probably only 10% of the market. So there's room for growth.

If they fix #3 and more people become ok with #2, then maybe the upper limit could grow to 30% of the market or something like that. That's over 100 million subscribers, but they have a lot of work to do to get there.

The release cadence is getting pretty good and IMO very attractive to the hardcore gamer, since October:

Ara
Age of Mythology
Call of Duty
MS Flight Sim 2024
Indiana Jones
Ninja Gaiden Black 2 Remaster
Avowed

33 Immortals
Expedition 33
South of Midnight
Doom DA
Tony Hawk 3&4 Remaster
Towerborne
Ninja Gaiden 4
Oblivion Remaster (rumored)

That's a pretty ridiculous lineup for 12 months and that's without adding in most of the 3rd party stuff. I believe this lineup will get GP to at least 40 million subs. We'll see....

 

[Cyan]

You can build a PC for the Xbox ecosystem, I'm thinking about it too. However, desktop Xbox PCs will probably come, similar to the just announced OEM handheld Xbox. I'm almost sure of that. Therefore, it would be best if MS showed off this machines at this year's GDC or Showcase.

one of the most important things Microsoft has to do is that whatever they make, if it's an easy to use hybrid then fine, it's to adapt ALL their Xbox legacy to PC. By that I mean that all the games that aren't on PC but are on people's Xbox library get ported or emulated so all the games people have for their X360 and so on, work from day 1 as if people had a new Xbox.

 

[eastmen]

Because they want one. You don't. But all the GP Xbox owners I know want new hardware. Besides, cloud is the future, but it's not here yet.

Most people are invested in their platforms and existing libraries. That's the key thing that MS found out this gen - losing last gen was a fatal blow to them ever overtaking Sony in console sales. They certainly believe that (and I agree). It cuts both ways though: PS owners want to stay with PS and Xbox owners want to stay with Xbox. There's another compelling reason to stay with Xbox - GamePass. It's the ultimate console exclusive that is only on Xbox. Many people never want to go PC, for many reasons argued ad nauseum around here. Some disagree.

I'm a xbox series x and s owner who has GP ultimate. I would love new hardware but if there is no exclusives there isn't a reason to invest in a new xbox.

Today with all the studios MS and an earlier launch of a new system could have had an xbox 360 run on their hands. But now they are going to release a console that will sell even less than xbox series which is now behind xbox one which is behind xbox 360.

We don't even know if or for how long a new piece of xbox hardware will play xbox games best. Right now the ps5 and ps5 pro play xbox games better when they hit the platform than the xbox series x does.

But why would they buy the games if they subscribe to Game Pass and get them all at once, always Day1? It is unlikely that the PC GP will always be at this level in terms of content. As they develop and offer a better alternative, the value of the subscription may increase in the eyes of players.

Who would buy an Xbox PC? If they price it well and provide more price segments, then it could be a suitable offer for the current 30-40 million Xbox users.

Plus for those who want to use their console-formed PC as a console in a plug&play and remote control way.

What will happen is people will install steam and buy non game pass games on steam. They will continue buying on steam and eventually they will have more people they play with on steam vs xbox. Then they will drop the subscrpition. The only way game pass works is if they provide enough good games to keep people subscribing.


Look at Xbox series. Why the massive drop in hardware sales? Why isn't everyone buying an xbox series and subbing to game pass ? Why are pc gamers still buying MS games on steam instead of just getting game pass pc ?

MS has the smallest install base for multiplayer. It will only shrink as their games come to more platforms. It's a loosing play from MS unless they have something more in the pipeline. Some how I think they wont put Majorana 1 into a new xbox. So it will likely be some form of amd apu.

 

[eastmen]

one of the most important things Microsoft has to do is that whatever they make, if it's an easy to use hybrid then fine, it's to adapt ALL their Xbox legacy to PC. By that I mean that all the games that aren't on PC but are on people's Xbox library get ported or emulated so all the games people have for their X360 and so on, work from day 1 as if people had a new Xbox.

It will depend on how the contracts for the games were made. I suspect there is verbage that will stop microsoft from having xbox original,360,one games on your pc xbox account. They might have changed verbage for the series generation but its also one of the lowest selling generations.

 

[Cyan]

It will depend on how the contracts for the games were made. I suspect there is verbage that will stop microsoft from having xbox original,360,one games on your pc xbox account. They might have changed verbage for the series generation but its also one of the lowest selling generations.

whatever they come up with, if the value proposition is good, it is easy to use, maybe accepts DOS and all Windows games, and it can play our games from the 3 generations of Xbox prior to this one, they could have a winner... for those of us who had an Xbox and want to keep their games history, it could be a must. How to achieve that, is a whole different story, but they seem to consider game preservation important according to Sarah Bond.

 

[cheapchips]

I'm a xbox series x and s owner who has GP ultimate. I would love new hardware but if there is no exclusives there isn't a reason to invest in a new xbox.

Our X|S are almost entirely Gamepass machines + my daughter playing Minecraft. I might be tempted by a more powerful box under the tele for Gamepass games.

Before my daughter was gifted an Xbox One S and I was drawn into Gamepass, I thought I was done with console gaming.

In 2027/8 I'm equally as likely to be tempted by more seamless way of streaming my PC to the TV.

Given how long cross gen was this gen, I'm not even sure we'll see a Gen 10 exclusive from MS or Sony before 2030.

They'll probably be the odd exception from Sony, but I haven't found their exclusives interesting enough for a hardware purchases in three generations. No FOMO!

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I'm a xbox series x and s owner who has GP ultimate. I would love new hardware but if there is no exclusives there isn't a reason to invest in a new xbox.

I'm sorry that you've soured so much on Xbox, but all the Xbox fans I know that are subscribed to GP want new hardware for their GP subs. GP is the best console exclusive IMO. As long as GP is around I'm never getting a PS.

We don't even know if or for how long a new piece of xbox hardware will play xbox games best. Right now the ps5 and ps5 pro play xbox games better when they hit the platform than the xbox series x does.

Until new hardware comes along.

What will happen is people will install steam and buy non game pass games on steam. They will continue buying on steam and eventually they will have more people they play with on steam vs xbox. Then they will drop the subscrpition. The only way game pass works is if they provide enough good games to keep people subscribing.

GP does have enough games for people to keep subscribing even now. MS cadence is continuing to improve on that front as well.

Look at Xbox series. Why the massive drop in hardware sales? Why isn't everyone buying an xbox series and subbing to game pass ? Why are pc gamers still buying MS games on steam instead of just getting game pass pc ?

The drop in hardware sales is that if you don't care about GP, you probably don't care about Xbox. The reason it's not a problem is that every GP ultimate subscriber is worth 2 or 3 PS5 purchasers.

MS has the smallest install base for multiplayer. It will only shrink as their games come to more platforms. It's a loosing play from MS unless they have something more in the pipeline. Some how I think they wont put Majorana 1 into a new xbox. So it will likely be some form of amd apu.

Smallest install base for mulitplayer except most games have cross play, so it doesn't much matter.

 

[Cyan]

it's not like I didn't talk about it enough.

Valve SteamOS launch teased: desktop PCs with bloatware-free OS is nearly here to fight Windows

Valve has its SteamOS on its Steam Deck gaming handheld, but having a non-Windows operating system for gaming on your desktop gaming PC or gaming laptop would be awesome to see. Sure, we've got Linux, but a full SteamOS for desktops and laptops would see tens of millions of gamers (and probably over a short period of time) giving Windows the finger, and switching to Valve's in-house operating system.

 

[rntongo]

Here’s the Steam on Xbox evidence Microsoft didn’t want you to see

Microsoft posted and removed a new Xbox UI image with Steam games listed.

www.theverge.com

Hmmm, interesting move by Xbox if they implement this.