Xbox 2 coming in Nov-Dec 2005 - Revolution could be stronger

[Megadrive1988]

http://cube.ign.com/articles/523/523583p1.html?fromint=1

Xbox 2 in 2005
Could Revolution be more powerful?

June 15, 2004 - It appears that Microsoft, which launched Xbox in late 2001 after Sony's PlayStation 2 and Nintendo's GameCube consoles, will be the first company to unleash its next-generation home console. The tentatively codenamed "Xbox 2," set to receive a name revision before its release because Microsoft doesn't want consumers to assume it's inferior to PlayStation 3 based on end numerals, hasn't yet been given an official release date. But just because Microsoft isn't yet talking doesn't mean developers working on early "Xbox 2" development setups are so keen to keep quiet.

A major software company already prototyping software for Microsoft's "Xbox 2" told IGN today that the publisher "definitely aims to launch the console in North America for Christmas 2005." A November time frame was given. A European release will follow in 2006, said the source.

IGN contacted another software firm currently working working on "Xbox 2" software, who seconded the news. "Let's put it this way: a lot of developers crunching to get their games ready for a 2005 launch will be really pissed if Microsoft doesn't get it out by then."

Microsoft has moved quicker than Nintendo and Sony to get development studios preliminary next-generation prototyping hardware, another indication that the company hopes to get the jump on its competitors.

The "Xbox 2" will use PowerPC based architecture similar to the chipset powering Apple's G5 computers. That being the case, Microsoft's early "Xbox 2" development kits have been little more than modified Apple G5 systems pre-packed with "Xbox 2" emulation software. "I heard [Apple CEO] Steve Jobs found it pretty ironic and funny that Microsoft has been shipping Apple systems to developers," one studio source joked to IGN on the subject.

Multiple software houses involved with "Xbox 2" development stand by rumors the console will not feature a hard drive, which would suggest that it might also not be backward compatible with current Xbox software. "Microsoft needs to make money with this system and so it's going a pretty conservative route," an insider explained, adding, "but that doesn't mean the system is not powerful because it is."

Microsoft is hoping that consumers, drunk on hit Xbox games like Halo and Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic, will be eager to step into the next-generation of home consoles with the successor. "It's hoping the early arrival will not hurt it, but help it," said a development source. "It doesn't want to be another Sega Dreamcast, in other words. It wants to be a Sega Genesis."

Presented with this information, a spokesperson for Microsoft said that the company "does not comment on rumors or speculation."

The downside to launching "Xbox 2" in 2005, say insiders, is that it puts Microsoft in the position of being the first next-generation console to market, which historically also means it could be the least powerful of the three from a technical standpoint.

Preliminary tech specs for Nintendo's Revolution (of which there are some half a dozen different versions, apparently) illustrate a console that is as powerful as "Xbox 2" in most respects. In fact, IBM and ATI, the two hardware makers responsible for the guts of "Xbox 2," are developing Revolution. Given another year development time, Nintendo's console could actually ship in 2006 as the more capable of the two hardware platforms.

Meanwhile, IBM and Sony are developing Cell, a proprietary, powerful new architecture that will be used in PlayStation 3. Some developers believe that Sony could delay the arrival of its next-generation console to as late as 2007 in order to create a Trojan horse for its budding Blu-Ray DVD technology, which promises to deliver high-definition DVDs into the living rooms of consumers, replacing current DVD-players.

Sony's Blu-Ray technology has one formidable hurdle to overcome: HD-DVD. This alternative format, backed by such electronics giants as NEC and Toshiba and recently approved by the DVD Forum, is positioned to give Ble-Ray a run for its money. But HD-DVD could be squashed in the same way that DVD squashed DivX if Sony were to include Blu-Ray DVD-playback in PlayStation 3, instantly turning millions of gameplayers into Blue-Ray supporters.

Doing so would also give Sony a clear selling point over Microsoft's "Xbox 2" as the only console that could play true high-definition DVD out of the box.

mind you, the Gamecube and Xbox launched at the same time, Gamecube can hold its own against the more powerful but less efficent Xbox. yet Gamecube is a much older piece of kit. developed from 1998 to 2000, being completed at roughly the same time that real Xbox chip development (Nvidia) was getting underway in 2000.

this time, Revolution and Xbox 2 are being developed almost in parallel. probably graphic processor development started for both (at ATI) within less than a year of each other (early 2002) but Xbox 2's cut off date for development will happen sooner than Revolution's
....so we will see 8)

 

[Wunderchu]

well, if Revolution comes out a year after Xbox Next (i.e.: Xbox Next launches in late 2005, and Revolution launches in late 2006), then IMO there is an extremely high probability that Revolution will be more powerful than Xbox Next ... as is mentioned in the IGN article, "Given another year development time, Nintendo's console could actually ship in 2006 as the more capable of the two hardware platforms." .... I mean, close to a full year of extra development time can make a huge difference...


however, we all know that Microsoft likes telling everyone that Xbox is the most powerful console, especially in comparison to PlayStation 2

As a "future-generation" device, Xbox will deliver rich, compelling graphics, and will enable a user's playing experience to be better and faster than any other games console available. It will push about 300 million polygons per second -- more than three times the graphics performance of its closest competitor, Sony PlayStation 2, which was recently released in Japan.

[source: http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/features/2000/03-10xbox.asp ]

.. and I'm sure they would like to be doing the same thing next round




we also know the following:

Don't expect the graphics capabilities of future Nintendo and Microsoft products to be exactly the same, however, the ATI spokesman said. "Yes, we have different design teams working on them, with different requirements and different timetables," the spokesman said.

[source: http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,3973,1220430,00.asp ]

.. so we know that one of the consoles will be more powerful than the other .. but which one ............

 

[Mythos]

If Revolution and PS3 launch couple months later and more capable then Xbox next it could possibly put the middle man squeze on Microsoft. Revolution taking the bottom-up market and PS3 taking the middle-up market.

 

[GwymWeepa]

I think releasing in 05 if done correctly could be the smartest thing MS can do.

 

[Jov]

I think releasing in 05 if done correctly could be the smartest thing MS can do.

Only if they have the Killer Apps on release or not long after! For the PS2 were the DVD feature and backward compatibility.

Otherwise I see no reason taking up the neXtBox if it does not offer something new/refreshing and/or must have! Quite happy with the current crop of games... actually not enuff hours in a day to play.

 

[Briareus]

Does this mean DX10 will be out in 2005?

I wonder how this affects R500/NV50.... Will we see DX10 for the pc before Longhorn?

 

[GwymWeepa]

I think releasing in 05 if done correctly could be the smartest thing MS can do.

Only if they have the Killer Apps on release or not long after! For the PS2 were the DVD feature and backward compatibility.

Otherwise I see no reason taking up the neXtBox if it does not offer something new/refreshing and/or must have! Quite happy with the current crop of games... actually not enuff hours in a day to play.

Well that would fall under doing things correctly, they have to have a ton of AAA titles at or near launch.

 

[Jov]

Well that would fall under doing things correctly, they have to have a ton of AAA titles at or near launch.

We're looking at no more than 17 months for launch titles and 29 months before the next console from now, unless there are tons of NeXtBox games in development, how likely will this be?

Lets take Halo 2 as the standard Xbox|NeXtBox AAA title, its been in dev pretty much since the launch of Xbox [Halo was a launch title] and its still not out.

Maybe you have a lot of faith in the XNA in reducing development time and producing AAA titles, but I am not so sure.

 

[Wunderchu]

We're looking at no more than 17 months for launch titles and 29 months before the next console from now, unless there are tons of NeXtBox games in development, how likely will this be?

Lets take Halo 2 as the standard Xbox|NeXtBox AAA title, its been in dev pretty much since the launch of Xbox [Halo was a launch title] and its still not out.

Maybe you have a lot of faith in the XNA in reducing development time and producing AAA titles, but I am not so sure.

remember that Microsoft was originally pushing for a late 2004 launch ( http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11881 ) ... so some developers must have started working on their next gen. games fairly early .....

 

[Deepak]

I don't think Halo3 will a launch title for XB2, it is too imp a title to be a launch title and anyway mostly hardcore fans get consoles at launch so they will get console of their choice irrespective of the titles. And anyway H2 is to be out at the end of this year and Bungie would need atleast 2 yrs to make H3 and they can't do a rushed out job, it has to be a (technically) outstanding title.

 

[rabidrabbit]

I think the delay in Halo2 is more because of marketing reasons, than developing problems.

MS and Bungie might have delayed Halo2 also because they want it to be their flagship brand, like GT for PS3. So they are not hurrying, but it'll be "ready when it's done".

Or meybe MS is (has been) just waiting for the right moment to launch Halo2, so that it would have maximum impact against PS2 titles.

 

[passerby]

Or they can just make Halo2 a XBNext launch title.

 

[Jov]

remember that Microsoft was originally pushing for a late 2004 launch ... so some developers must have started working on their next gen. games fairly early .....;

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11881

Yeah, but with changing specs, I am sure it'd affect (to some degree) the goals of each project. Also keep in mind MS is more than likely keep updating the specs to match Sony on paper whenever they catch wind of anything superior.

Maybe some of the Devs on this board can enlighten us in how their team handles the situation of working with non-locked down console specs? e.g. the delays due to different type or quantity of CPUs, Memory, etc...

Or is it in the early stages of development most work done at a high level that h/w spec changes will have minimal impact?

 

[Phil]

this time, Revolution and Xbox 2 are being developed almost in parallel. probably graphic processor development started for both (at ATI) within less than a year of each other (early 2002) but Xbox 2's cut off date for development will happen sooner than Revolution's

True, a year might yield quite an advantage for the latter console from a technologie perspective, but you also have to factor in that each console are working with different cost budget all together. To be honest, I don't expect Nintendo to deliver a 'revolution' in terms of performance, but more in terms of features similar to what they are doing with the DS. I also think Microsoft still see's Sony as there real competitor and will do anything to be as close to the hyped performance of PS3 as possible, especially when launching early to avoid a Dreamcast like scenario.

 

[UltraMario]

If MS looses the edge in graphics to the other two consoles they loose everything. Most people who bought the Xbox did it becouse it had better graphics.

 

[Nick Laslett]

Initial thoughts:

No backwards compatibility - This is bad, it means you have to keep your Xbox to be able to play Doom3, Halo 2, Fable, 2004 release, etc. Might delay people adopting the new system until it has a few AAA titles.

No hard Drive - No emulation. It might be a niche activity, but it is another reason to hold onto your Xbox and wait to adopt the new system. Part of the goodwill for the Xbox from the hardcore community comes from the fact you can emulate so many other systems on the console.

Weakest of the 3 next gen systems - As Microsoft made such a point of trumpeting how powerful the Xbox was during this generation, you can bet that Sony & Nintendo will shout from the rooftops if their systems are more powerful this time around. There may actually be little visible difference, but if the hype machines are able to highlight meaningless specification numbers, it will be bad for Microsoft as they are going from the position of stongest to weakest. It would look like they made a mistake with the design of their system.

Launching Early - The competitive advantage of launching early is being able to have a greater installed base than your competition. Publishers will be more inclined to tailor games for a system with a strong installed base. But what if the Xbox2 sales are lackluster? What if the power difference has an impact on the ability to port games between the 3 systems. In the current generation everyone uses the PS2 as the target platform and makes marginal improvements for the Xbox & GC releases. Microsoft run the risk of the PS3 being the target platform and receiving poor conversion due to small user base and power difference.

 

[London Geezer]

If MS looses the edge in graphics to the other two consoles they loose everything. Most people who bought the Xbox did it becouse it had better graphics.

Then if that's true then it looks like MS is doomed. First to come out = weakest link.

They might get their act together and start releasing some good games though, you never know. Doom3 and HL2 on Xbox2 will sell a lot, regardless if everyone will have played them to death on PC by then. Now that i think about it, at this pace, Doom3 and HL2 will only have been out for about 2 days when Xbox2 comes out.....

 

[Deepak]

They might get their act together and start releasing some good games though, you never know. Doom3 and HL2 on Xbox2 will sell a lot, regardless if everyone will have played them to death on PC.

That might actually be true.

 

[wco81]

Didn't Nintendo say they were going to show their system at E3 in 05/05?

That implies an '05 launch doesn't it? Or would they undermine their GCN lineup for fall/winter 2005?

Other than a new Halo, what could MS launch with XB2 in 11/05? A full complement of EA games would help, with full HDTV support.

Also, the IGN piece implied that Sony would delay the PS3 to 2007 because of Blue Ray moreso than the Cell? That seems a new wrinkle.

 

[zurich]

If Halo 2 is launching in Nov 2004, then Halo 3 couldn't be ready for Nov 2005, unless they have 2 seperate teams and/or the game will suck.