Wither Universal?

G

Geo

Mostly Harmless
Legend
Warner's defection to Blu-ray only is a serious blow, no question. Quite possibly "the beginning of the end".

But the *real* end would be when the HD DVD Rock of Gibraltar, Universal, announces it is going Blu.

So, the question is. . .when, if ever, do you expect that to happen?
 
I figure if we see the consumer believe that the HD-DVD format is dead in the next few weeks, (Consumers other than us techies reading forums and tech sites) sales of HD-DVD movies should falter fast and Universal is in the business to sell movies.

That means no matter what they agreed to, they probably will react quickly to move to the Blu-ray camp. I can't see anything else happening.
 
Heh. But of course. That's the best game in town isn't it? You win no matter how the bets go.

I work in insurance, which is just a more genteel form of making book. :)
 
I expect Uni and Paramount to be looking at their out clauses.

HD DVD failed at the one thing it *HAD* to do. Gain studio support. It has failed and all the wildcards (neutral studios) are off the table.
 
I think it'll happen, possibly even before Paramount's agreement with Toshiba ends (unless Paramount finds a way out of it).

I'm a little surprised that there has been no comment from Universal about this (as far as I can see?). Usually they've been on the front lines, advocating HD-DVD in the press, and if ever that was needed..

Also, I'm probably reading WAY too much into this, but Universal yesterday issued a very late correction to a press release sent out on Thursday, taking HD-DVD out of a press release announcing the disc release of Lust, Caution. I suppose these mistakes happen, but if this correction came after the Warner announcement, the timing was a little unfortunate (i don't have an exact time, except that it was corrected on Friday).

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...al-studios-home-entertainment2f_424380_6.html

There's another possibility also, albeit perhaps more unlikely..that Universal would remove themselves from the HD game altogether for the time being.
 
Geo said:
Heh. But of course. That's the best game in town isn't it? You win no matter how the bets go.

I work in insurance, which is just a more genteel form of making book. :)
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No I think the longer it went on the more the consumer would win. The price wars and BOGO offers were quite nice.
 
Perhaps Universal et al should bite the bullet and offer BD edition trade-ins for consumers who bought the HD DVD exclusive discs when the time comes (and when the BD versions do arrive, obviously). Better sooner than later, but I suppose further HD DVD sales may grind to a halt soon enough. :???: (Wishful thinking, but it would be a bit of a silver lining for public relations though. :p )

And they ought to switch over to BD as soon as possible now.
 
Geo said:
What makes you think they'll stop? They still have DVD to replace.
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I'm not sure that they "want" to replace DVD, yet, at least.. Authoring for DVD (and production, for that matter) is still significantly cheaper. With the view point that HDM has losts of space to fill its likely that HDM will still be the higher cost "upsell" for some time.
 
Dave Baumann said:
I'm not sure that they "want" to replace DVD, yet, at least.. Authoring for DVD (and production, for that matter) is still significantly cheaper. With the view point that HDM has losts of space to fill its likely that HDM will still be the higher cost "upsell" for some time.
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DVD support on hardware will go on for ever, but I think there is a good chance that the film studios will end up charging a premium for DVD over BD on the basis (true or not) that BD is more difficult to rip. If they do this, BD adoption will be very much faster.
 
Dave Baumann said:
I'm not sure that they "want" to replace DVD, yet, at least.. Authoring for DVD (and production, for that matter) is still significantly cheaper. With the view point that HDM has losts of space to fill its likely that HDM will still be the higher cost "upsell" for some time.
Click to expand...

Well, it's certainly going to take awhile because it can't go any faster than HDTV adoption, for one.

But I do think that in addition to the DRM points, there are a couple other points to consider. Old TV shows should get a cost advantage from fewer disks, for one, making them more economically viable (and they've obviously been doing pretty well anyway. . . we have complete runs of things like Hogan's Heroes, MASH and Columbo in this house on DVD).

I think artists are going to be increasingly weighing in on this point as well. More and more existing content can natively take advantage of HD presentation, and the people who created it will increasingly insist that it be shown the way they intended. That's always been a sore point to some degree with the home video market, but now the infrastructure is actually in place to allow it, so the insistence on that will grow.
 
Geo said:
What makes you think they'll stop? They still have DVD to replace.
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There is no competition they will stop.

DVD was cheaper than VHS to produce the media, but you did not see expensive VHS and cheap DVD. They will charge more.

I am not even sure if this is truly the end. I mean I think it is the end, but HD DVD might hang around for awhile anyway. I think Toshiba was too risk averse personally. They fought the format war on the cheap so if they lost it would not matter. Sony took massive losses so they could win. If toshiba would have subsidized MS to put an HD DVD drive in the xbox 360 from day one I bet hd dvd would have already won the war.
 
Studios do want to push HD. It's not about replacing DVD per se - but I think they'd like to try - but it's about having a new growth avenue. DVD sales don't offer any real growth any more, it is flatlining. HD offers a chance for a new cycle, which at the beginning will offer premiums that DVD has long since said goodbye to.

Also, interestingly, Warner says that DVD sales in the last quarter were softer than expected - their research indicating that more people are now waiting for HD, and an outcome to the HD format war before buying any movies again, including SD stuff. This is one of the reasons they want a quicker end to this war.
 
Sxotty said:
There is no competition they will stop.

DVD was cheaper than VHS to produce the media, but you did not see expensive VHS and cheap DVD. They will charge more.
Click to expand...

But this is why BOGO's will continue. The studios would rather run the occasional sale than generically cut prices by 50% at this point.
 
Sxotty said:
DVD was cheaper than VHS to produce the media, but you did not see expensive VHS and cheap DVD. They will charge more.
Click to expand...

That's simply because DVD brought many advantages over VHS worth paying for. Not sure why manufacturing cost is relevant.

I haven't been following this closely but why do some people think that extending the war is good for the consumer? Wouldn't that just result in people delaying purchases and/or being screwed if they build up a collection in the losing format?
 
Sxotty said:
If toshiba would have subsidized MS to put an HD DVD drive in the xbox 360 from day one I bet hd dvd would have already won the war.
Click to expand...
Toshiba didn't have a HD DVD drive to put in the 360 on day one.


trinibwoy said:
Wouldn't that just result in people delaying purchases and/or being screwed if they build up a collection in the losing format?
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I don't see where the "screwed" comes in, it is not like the disks and/or players will dissapear.
 
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