Will revolution be released last?
- Thread starter ILUVMATH
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...and yet Japan still has Christmas, and consoles still get proportional sales increases (sometimes better than the US, sometimes worse), which for THEM makes the seasons much more alike, would it not? Now game publishers tend to want to bunch up their key titles in the holiday season, but that actually affects Nintendo less than anyone else, because they ARE their key developer and publisher. The could, in fact, much more easily launch on whatever schedule THEY want, and use the 3rd party schedules to cover major titles in their first holiday season.ERP said:
The other thing is that that description tells us very little about their launch plans. Most September releases are still technically summer because the fall season doesn't begin until the ~23rd, but everyone still thinks of it as "fall," and in there fell two of Nintendo's launches. Everything thinks of August as "summer" as well, so if the SNES launched in the US one day earlier...? Would THAT have made a huge retail impact come the holiday season? ...what about the week before?
The point is, loose expectations are not obvious, and I certainly don't think launching around the holiday season (defined somehow as "beginning of September to beginning of December"--a whole quarter) is make-or-break. There ARE other factors to consider, and we just plain don't know what Nintendo is considering.
Just how many people on here have hopped up and down on here saying "letting the other guy get ahead" is what really affected a console's forever-and-ever sales? Are they willing to let both their competitors build up momentum without their own established presence? Are they going to launch in Japan during the summer again (which they've done three times, albeit once was one of the "early September" dates) but not get to Europe or the US until months later? Do they want to give Microsoft enough headroom to steal some of their thunder with a price drop; what if Nintendo is again trying to bring more appeal by being cheaper than the other options?
All I'm saying is that pegging all one's expectations on one market point is foolish. What if they decide to launch in Japan on an earlier summer date--say the day after E3 to have a tremendous showing and "own" that convention--and follow up in the US no later than two months? Do people think that would make no sense, and that if they launched in late July or August they would somehow "disappear from the radar" before the holiday season?
Thing is, we know squat about Revolution right now, and considering they want to make a real break from the "typical console" and bring something new and exciting to the market, who's to say they're not going to do the same to their typical market plans as well? (Which, offhand, have been less than stellar this generation.)
Oh yes, and offhand any of the consoles will sell all they can manufacture at ANY point at which they launch, because the demand will always be there, and they never launch when they have 20 million units sitting around or something like that.
If THAT is the only concern...blakjedi said:
I'm not sure why people talk so badly about WW. I just got a GC about a month ago, and I think WW is an awesome game. My friend was always going on and on about how WW was crap and he wouldn't play it, until he actually saw me playing it and changed his mind.
I've played PS2 and Xbox and GC. I think Nintendo could do a better job of 3rd party support, but the system is pretty good and there's enough good games and a lot of great games to play. The same can be said about all of the systems, so I'm really not sure what all the arguing is about. This is basically an argument about how people perceive the different systems. Basically this is an argument about how strongly people buy into the advertising.
cthellis42 said:
You sell the most during the holidays, but you make the fewest units when at the beginning, which makes for really long lines or lists or fights in stores. Those don't generate much consumer goodwill.
Regardless of when they release, they will sell everything they can make for a while.
PC-Engine said:Maybe because PS1 and PS2 launched in March?
December 3, 1994, the PlayStation was released in Japan
September 9, 1995 , the PlayStation launched in the United States
September 29, 1995. the PlayStation launched in Europe
March 4, 2000, the PlayStation2 was released in Japan
October 20, 2000, the PlayStation2 was released in United States
November 24, 2000, the PlayStation2 was released in Europe
...I don't see a "March pattern" here
The Revolution will be released after the Xbox 2, before the PS3. The Nintendo PR guy told that they wouldn't follow the early release tactics of Microsoft but adjust it to the Sony's schedule. The fall 2006 release is too late and the GC was just delayed by the software. This time Nintendo will ensure that the Revolution has the better technical spec than the Xbox 2 IMO since they know MS won't adopt an extravagant design like the Xbox 1.
one said:
What's extravagant about the Xbox design?
I know. Neither do I. Which is why I'm wondering about your unshakable faith regarding Nintendo's launch. Are they willing to allow Xenon a whole year headstart AND give Sony half a year's headroom as well?PC-Engine said:Hmm...I always thought PS1 launched in Mar in Japan, oh well I stand corrected then.
I don't think SONY really wants to compete with Revolution in Fall 06 while allowing Xenon a whole year headstart.
This gen, I don't think it's wise to make easy assumptions.
cthellis42 said:I know. Neither do I. Which is why I'm wondering about your unshakable faith regarding Nintendo's launch. Are they willing to allow Xenon a whole year headstart AND give Sony half a year's headroom as well?PC-Engine said:Hmm...I always thought PS1 launched in Mar in Japan, oh well I stand corrected then.
I don't think SONY really wants to compete with Revolution in Fall 06 while allowing Xenon a whole year headstart.
This gen, I don't think it's wise to make easy assumptions.
Nintendo's main competition is PS3 not Xenon, so Xenon having a year headstart isn't going to matter to Nintendo. By launching in fall 06 they'll have both PS3 launch windows covered so a Mar PS3 launch won't have a significant market advantage and a fall 06 PS3 launch would coincide with the Revolution launch.
Why won't a Xenon head start matter to Nintendo? Because a Nintendo exec at some press conference said Sony is his main competitor?
These three companies are all competing for similar customers. Microsoft may have had a modest showing this time around, but it still managed to virtually tie Nintendo for market share with its first entry into the market.
Pretty good for a first effort, don't you think?
And from Nintendo's perspective, when the new kid on the block who basically equalled your market share is a company called Microsoft, you'd better damn well watch your back. Chances are, Bill Gates and Co. learned a few lessons they're liable to use this next time around.
Now here's a question. How can Nintendo have its sights set on Sony and still be going off in some "new, innovative" direction? It seems to me they're setting off on their own, for destinations unknown, and once again, they're doing it to the beat of their own drum. And from what I've seen, that's not working out very well for them.
Sony's come in with products that appeal to a broad market, and the market has embraced that. For two generations in a row, Sony has built and expanded not just its own user base, but the entire universe of people who call themselves gamers.
And now Nintendo's going to do something different. Sounds risky to me!
I hope, for Nintendo's sake, that its plans for Revolution are sound. If not, Microsoft WILL become Nintendo's main competitor in the console arena, as the company speeds by and leaves Mario and Co. at a resounding No. 3.
I've seen:
* Nintendo lose half its market share to Sega in the 16-bit wars
* Nintendo lose its market-leader status to Sony in the 32-/64-bit wars
* Nintendo promise a different ballgame with Gamecube, only to repeat many of the same mistakes it committed with N64
* Third parties abandon recent Nintendo platforms in droves
* Microsoft swoop in and virtually tie Nintendo for market share in the current generation
* Nintendo pigeonhole itself as a purveyor of kid-friendly cartoon games
* The company consistently deny that its outdated thinking is the problem. For years now, Nintendo has been insisting that the market is in decline; when in actuality, the only thing in decline is Nintendo's own relevance in the market
Edit: I have also seen:
* The family friendly Nintendo censor its games by choosing "sweat" over blood in the first MK, and removing roadkills from the home version of Cruis'n USA
* Nintendo stubbornly stick with outdated cartridges for its N64 system - a draconian decision that contributed heavily to the company's market decline
* Nintendo knee-jerk in the portable market by throwing together the DS as a response to Sony's PSP
I could list more, but have to get to work. These are just off the top of my head.
Both Nintendo and Sony have contributed a ton of unique new properties this generation, particularly quirky boutique products in Japan. That's really not even really arguable. Things are just getting more diverse with software for EyeToy and DS.
Back on topic, for launch timeframes I'm expecting something like...
Xbox 360
NA: Fall 2005
EU: Fall 2005
JP: Winter 2005/2006
PlayStation 3
JP: Spring 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Fall 2006
Revolution
JP: Summer 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Fall 2006
...at GDC Nintendo mentioned Rev kits would be distributed this spring, before E3 iirc. Xenon kits have been in circulation since winter 2003. PS3 kits evidently just started filtering out.
Back on topic, for launch timeframes I'm expecting something like...
Xbox 360
NA: Fall 2005
EU: Fall 2005
JP: Winter 2005/2006
PlayStation 3
JP: Spring 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Fall 2006
Revolution
JP: Summer 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Fall 2006
...at GDC Nintendo mentioned Rev kits would be distributed this spring, before E3 iirc. Xenon kits have been in circulation since winter 2003. PS3 kits evidently just started filtering out.
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