Dont you think that the first 6M console will be bought by hardcore gamers?
The way Nintendo is marketing it, I don't believe so. Sure, you will have lots of Nintendo-f*nboys in this 6M, but after the phenomenon known as Nintendo DS, Wii should have some mindshare amongst normal people -- at least in Japan.
But like I said: I generally agree that the number of games might lead to somewhat disappointing sales-number (not in total, but for each individual game).
Indeed but I think it is mostly because of the low sucess of the console, plus just very few had that honor (IIRC MP and SM:S didnt had it), very late (it has just some good time after Pikmin 2 release that Pik got its low price) and the price cut hadnt been as big as the XB/PS2 versions. I fear that it a bigger and more constant flow of growing userbase they will not do this again.
Yes, both MP and SMS had Player's Choice editions.
I mean LZ:WW (and many didnt like the Cel shading) sold 4,3M LZ:OT sold more than 7M, SM:S (also didnt had the best reviewns) sold 5,5M, SSB:S sold 6M+ (launch game) and GC had never been as popular as Wii or the games as interesting (not necessarely good) as this ones.
Keep in mind that neither MP3 nor Mario nor SMB:B will be out this year, probably not even before march (the date Nintendo wants to ship 6M).
Personally I think there will be ~5 games very popular games and a lot of bad sellers ones: 2-3 N games + RS + Madden and one more popular.
In fact when they talked about the 6M consoles they said that expected ~18M games sold in the same time, if LZ=2M (games sold) and SM:G=2M, MP3=2M, SMB:B=2M, RS=2M (most of those are very conservative numbers, probably you could) you already have more than 1/2 of the games sold and just talked about less than 1/6 of the games (everyone directely related to Nintendo).
I find really hard to see that most of the games will sell well enought.
Of course you have a couple really hot selling games - (Rayman, Red Steel, Zelda, perhaps Monkeyball...) and lots of mediocre ones. But really, what do developers expect? If they produce non-distinct shovelware (and several of the 40 titles look like it) they won't sell very well of course.