I think it's pretty simple: longevity depends on games. It depends on the big titles. After the Xbox launched, PS2 didn't have a single hardware feature commending it anymore. The Xbox had a hard drive, built-in Ethernet, better graphics, and (eventually) a killer online service that has yet to be matched. What didn't it have? It didn't have a game library that could compete with PS2. Splinter Cell and Halo couldn't save it. Same goes for Gamecube.
And it's a snowball effect. People will continue buying games for the console they have. If in 2008, various 3rd party Wii games have sold by the truckload, sales will not suddenly vanish when 360 drops to $199. People will keep buying games for the Wiis they already have, publishers will keep making games for Wii, and the library will sway more new adopters. If the kind of people who are buying Wii games now pick up gaming as a frequent activity, there'll still be a Wii audience in a few years. That snowball effect is the reason why PSP is never going to catch up to DS.
However, perception among a large number of devs seems to be that Wii is for kids and old people. The next core iterations in Resident Evil, Silent Hill, Devil May Cry, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, and Grand Theft Auto are still not coming to Wii--not to mention all the new franchises like Assassin's Creed and whatnot. The crowd that buys those kinds of games numbers in the millions. Unless some major games bomb on X360--and it doesn't look like they're going to--I wouldn't expect to see a lot of big-name action titles coming to Wii.
But I would expect longevity. The crowd that buys DDR and Mario Party also numbers in the millions.
And it's a snowball effect. People will continue buying games for the console they have. If in 2008, various 3rd party Wii games have sold by the truckload, sales will not suddenly vanish when 360 drops to $199. People will keep buying games for the Wiis they already have, publishers will keep making games for Wii, and the library will sway more new adopters. If the kind of people who are buying Wii games now pick up gaming as a frequent activity, there'll still be a Wii audience in a few years. That snowball effect is the reason why PSP is never going to catch up to DS.
However, perception among a large number of devs seems to be that Wii is for kids and old people. The next core iterations in Resident Evil, Silent Hill, Devil May Cry, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, and Grand Theft Auto are still not coming to Wii--not to mention all the new franchises like Assassin's Creed and whatnot. The crowd that buys those kinds of games numbers in the millions. Unless some major games bomb on X360--and it doesn't look like they're going to--I wouldn't expect to see a lot of big-name action titles coming to Wii.
But I would expect longevity. The crowd that buys DDR and Mario Party also numbers in the millions.