What other hardware/Technology is on the horizon?

[Fuz]

Its a bit worrying when 90% of the threads on this board some how end up being about the R300 or the NV30. One would think that there are no other companies out there in this industry.
The way things are going, it seems to me that we may eventually end up with just 2 players, just like AMD and Intel. Infact, I am willing to bet on it... it won't happen over night, but it will happen.

I invite you guys/gals to prove me wrong. Are there any new hardware coming out that will put a dent in the market share of the big two?

Here is what I am hoping will happen.

High End:
Parhelia 2 > Matrox gets thier act together and releases a product early 2003 that competes with R350 and NV35.

PowerVR Series 5 > Would like to see PowerVR make a strong come back. Released 1H 2003, competes with R350 and NV35.

Mid Range:
Xabre II > SiS pulls a miracle out thier arses and release a product with good performance, stable drivers and good image quality. Competes with RV350 and the likes in 1H 2003

P10 > Creative decide to release a consumer level P10 board after all, released early 2003.

I know I have left out quite a few other possibilities, as well the low end. Also, I realise that I may be dreaming here.... but you guys get the idea.
Obviously, Nvidia and ATI may release other products too, but lets leave them out if possible.

So what hardware are you guys/gals looking forward to?

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Well for high performance "gaming" solutions, I really only see the two main players, ATI and nVidia, going forward.

The primary reason is that the "cost of entry" into that segment is so damn high, I don't see many willing to take that financial risk. The risks of entry do not just include capital investment though. Any "new" architecture from a new company is bound to have lots more problems with compatibility with software, just due to the fact that developers have been keying on ATI and nVidia hardware as the "development" platform. So not only does a new entry in the performance gaming market have to stand out from a performance perspective, but it has to do so while delivering wide compatibility with software written without the new GPU as even a thought in the developers minds. That's a tall order IMO.

However, I do see room at the low end for at least one more player: Intel.

Intel can really make big inroads in the "integrated chipset" market. There, it is COST that is the primary seller. Game compatibility, performance, and quality are of secondary consideration (to a point of course.) Intel is at a big advantage here.

So, in reality I see 3 major players in the video market: ATI and nVidia for add-in boards, and Intel, ATI, and nVidia for integrated solutions.

I think most of the other players are at too large a disadvantage at this stage in the game.

This isn't to say we can't still continue to have a few smaller vendors tagging along like Matrox and 3D/Creative Labs, but they will likely have to be content with much smaller market share. (There's nothing wrong with that, as long as they still turn a profit, of course.)

Based on nothing but pure speculation....

I'm guessing Matrox's next part will fall in line somewhere between the Ti 4600 and the NV30/R-300. I just don't see Matrox being a major player for game enthusiasts.

3DLabs....I also believe that they will end up being more or less content with retaining focus on the professional market. Lower volumes and higher margins.

PowerVR: I just don't see them ever making significant inroads into the PC space...unless VideoLogic themselves decides to take the risk of bringing the products to market. I've said this time and time again....I simply don't believe that PowerVR's technology licensing strategy is a good fit for the PC space. For consoles and other "closed" types of devices I see no problem with it though.

 

[Kristof]

PowerVR: I just don't see them ever making significant inroads into the PC space...unless VideoLogic themselves decides to take the risk of bringing the products to market. I've said this time and time again....I simply don't believe that PowerVR's technology licensing strategy is a good fit for the PC space. For consoles and other "close" types of devices I see no problem with it though.

Videologic ?

Do you mean Imagination Technologies or Pure Digital ?

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Do you mean Imagination Technologies or Pure Digital ?

Eh....whoever. How about "whatever name they decide to use next year for the group that is responsible for designing, manufacturing, and selling the actual next-gen chip."

In other words, I don't see too much interest in 3rd parties going with a licensed design and bringing up a new chip. At BEST, OEMS might be willing to buy actual chips from another "fabless semiconductor company." But IMO, even that's a pretty high risk in todays market with the established market leaders and brands.

IMO, if for PowerVR tech to have a reasonable chance at making a dent in the PC market, it will take at least Imagination Technologies to actually build and sell chips, not license the technology to do so. (ImgTech to become a fabless semiconductor company). Furthermore, I think it might also require PureDigital to take the risk of using those chips to introduce products based on them world wide...because I'm not convinced at this point that the other 3rd party OEMs will be interested. All IMO of course.

 

[Fuz]

Whats the situation with Imagination Technologies at this very moment?

 

[Joe DeFuria]

What do you mean "situation"? I don't know if Kristof can elaborate, but the current rumors (I believe) are the following:

* They have a Series5 design ready, or just about ready, for licensing. A DX9 part.

* They are looking for a partner to license the design, and if found soon (if they don't already have one that they have just not announced), might be able to have a product produced on Series5 design by late 1H 2003, or early 2H 2003.

* There is also rumor that IMG is in fact contemplating building and selling the chip itself. (That I would love to see, but it is a rumor at this point.)

 

[Dave Baumann]

Whats the situation with Imagination Technologies at this very moment?

They are lobbing screwed up bit of paper across the desks at each other?

Seriously though, there are many divisions to Img, most of which have nothing to do with 3D. PowerVR on the other hand are concentrating on 3D and they are awaiting royalties for MBX licenses and working on Series 5.

 

[RussSchultz]

Whats the situation with Imagination Technologies at this very moment?

They are lobbing screwed up bit of paper across the desks at each other?

I was going to say they were just returning from tea and crumpets...

 

[Fuz]

So at this moment in time, there is still no guarantee that there will be a PowerVR Series 5 released, in any way, shape or form?

Do we know who Img have talked to in regards to licensing the design of Series 5?

 

[Dave Baumann]

Do we know who Img have talked to in regards to licensing the design of Series 5?

8)

 

[Joe DeFuria]

So at this moment in time, there is still no guarantee that there will be a PowerVR Series 5 released, in any way, shape or form?

Correct...just don't tell that to Teasy.

 

[Mariner]

I think Teasy is safe this time, isn't he?

No body parts wagered. 8)

 

[Nappe1]

Parhelia 2 > Matrox gets thier act together and releases a product early 2003 that competes with R350 and NV35.

in the light of recent news:

 

[Kristof]

Whats the situation with Imagination Technologies at this very moment?

They are lobbing screwed up bit of paper across the desks at each other?
.

Hmmm, thats a novel idea... I wonder if we can patent that... oops did I post this? Better move quick...

(Hey , we are an IP company after all ! )

 

[Simon F]

Whats the situation with Imagination Technologies at this very moment?

They are lobbing screwed up bit of paper across the desks at each other?

/me starts searching for the hidden web cam...

 

[BRiT]

As much as I'd love to see one of the smaller players move up to be competetive with ATI/Nvidia, I just don't see it happening.

Matrox: It seems their problems stem from management. For them to be competetive, they need to toss out the people calling the shots. Perhaps their management is too afraid to aim for the high performance market or they're listening to some bean-counter who's hopped up on LaBatts.

PVR-S5: Some sort of fluke will come around and prevent it from seeing the light of day. This is nothing to say about their engineering talent. Its a small thing to say about their management not being aggressive enough to go for the high-end. This is more of a Murphy's Law with the end consumers being skrewed. SEE ALSO: Curse of BitBoys.

SiS: I doubt they'll ever stop cutting corners in the IQ realm. Their Xabre-600 would have been interesting 6-9 months ago. Now it's just a "me too" part. What's worse, is it's a 0.13 micron part. It should be clocked at least 50% higher, for the priceerformance ratio it gives.

Creative/3DLabs: Can be a contendor, but not with P10 or Creative management. They'll have to go with their next-gen P11 or what-have-you. However, I see 3DLabs suffering from Creative-ism. That is to say, they will not do anything innovative for the consumer market. They will take the same old product and merely slap on three to four different marketting labels on it with slightly different add-in mix. That will continue for two years. Creative has never done anything innovative with what they've acquired, and its never come from within. When they acquired Esoniq, all they used was their technology to produce PCI-based sound cards. When they acquired Aureal, they did nothing with the technology. They released the same ol sound-card with no innovation for well over 3 years at a time [SB/SB32/SB-AWE/SB-PCI-32/64/128/512, SB-LIVE/SB-Live-5.1, and now SB-Audigy/SB-Audigy-2].

That leaves some dark horse outside candidate, perhaps VIA/S3, Trident, or dare I say this, BitBoys (but not til mid-2003).

--|BRiT|

 

[Nappe1]

dare I say this, BitBoys.

they left the field.
and if someone didn't get on my last post, Matrox is on it's way out. It seems that I am pretty much done on PC 3D Hardware.

 

[BRiT]

Nappe1, I did see that post. I'm hoping for some sort of way (other verticle markets, major launch partner) for them to get back into the fray by the end of 2003. I think the PC-market is/will be at a loss without them, certainly far less interesting.

Shame about Matrox too. I believe I had one of their cards in my rigs the longest out of all graphic cards I owned. Back in the day of seperate 2D/3D cards, I always had the G100 8Meg AGP card through V1/V2/V2-SLI, up until I ditched them for V3.

--|BRiT|

 

[Dave Baumann]

and if someone didn't get on my last post, Matrox is on it's way out.

I think I've missed something here - whats going on?

 

[Bjorn]

Matrox: It seems their problems stem from management. For them to be competetive, they need to toss out the people calling the shots. Perhaps their management is too afraid to aim for the high performance market or they're listening to some bean-counter who's hopped up on LaBatts.

PVR-S5: Some sort of fluke will come around and prevent it from seeing the light of day. This is nothing to say about their engineering talent. Its a small thing to say about their management not being aggressive enough to go for the high-end. This is more of a Murphy's Law with the end consumers being skrewed. SEE ALSO: Curse of BitBoys.

I doubt that it's as easy as just "hey, why don't you engineers make a high end card instead of a low end/main stream one. make sure that it's ready by .... ".