What can Sony do about Japan?
- Thread starter Archgamer
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I don't know about you, but the word "gamble" in a business sense, implies some possibility of losing money. When you are last in marketshare, with a very dim future, and you have plenty of money raking in from other ventures (the DS), then a guaranteed profitable product is the anti-thesis of gamble, whereas the PS3 is exact definition of gamble. Your definition of gamble seem to have nothing to do with money.
I don't think you even know what your point is. Look, if you want to develop following purely the money, you are stuck developing for the PS2, period. Wii is nowhere there and hence the argument fails immediately.
Now that leaves us the question of how the PS2 got as popular as it did in the first place. The answer to that question is that developers do not automatically follow the money, and consumers do not automatically buy the consoles with the most games. If that was true, the PS2's 12-18 month long game drought would have killed it right off the bat and DC would have won. What really happened is that consumers understand the concept of "upgrading" and developers naturally want to develop for "next-gen" and will not mindless develop for previous generations of hardware. In other words, the industry is smart enough to recognize when thing become obsolete and the buying habits of the industry shift in order to accommodate that. This is not just some made up stuff, but it follows fairly consistent market cycles where last gen becomes gradually abandoned in favor of next gen.
Of course, value also gets into the mix, and hence the PS2 is still selling well due to its perceived value and its huge gaming base. However, this does not override everything else. Very good sales of the PSOne did not derail the PS2, only sold alongside it as gamers naturally upgraded. We can easily see that developers will naturally stop developing for the Wii and consumers will naturally upgrade to next gen. We can disagree on when or how that will happen, but it will happen.
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There's a first time for everything.
The Wii could also be the first to explode out the gates and still fail. Yes, first time for everything.
That's actually bullshit. Many games outright intentionally screw the Core version. For instance the Oblivion expansion pack requires the Premium. So do virtually all add-on packs. XBL was sorta intended to accommodate the Core, but ultimately screws it with the 50MB limit increase. Any future MMO will screw the Core. If or when a HD-DVD/Blu-ray version of the 360 comes, we'll see another userbase fragmentation.
On topic:
The only "target" j-devs need to worry about is Userbase, and right now ths stat is sufficiently limiting their abilities far more than any Wii (or xb360) stat you can throw out.
If that was true, the PS2 will be only console every to see developer money and it will stay that way till the end of time.
These are EXPANSION PACKS. Big difference. Nice try though.
Regarding MMO's, You're right. This entire genre will be difficult or impossible to replicate on the core and I have no idea what MS plans to do to address the hundreds of classic and popular MMO franchises from last gen...
Agreed.
Seriously, you would be 100% right if people were still buying ps2 software in Japan. Fact is it is dying there and Wii with it's limited userbase is outselling ps2 software on a consistant basis. This is the reason devs will not be targeting ps2 (or ps3), but will be targeting Wii.
This is somewhat of a stretch. None of this "screws" the core. The majority of the games, out of the box, can be played by Core users. Any extras requires more cash anyway - Live Gold account access, the downloads themselves, Core users just have an extra hump to pay for the HD.
And this doesn't screw the Core how? BTW they aren't just expansion packs, they're also patches which means bug fixes and balance issues also screw the Core version. In short, the Core users gets an inferior experience. I don't see how this become any clearer.
Hence you agree (with your own words no less). If or when these MMOs come out, the Core is screwed even more.
Agreed.
Seriously, you would be 100% right if people were still buying ps2 software in Japan. Fact is it is dying there and Wii with it's limited userbase is outselling ps2 software on a consistant basis. This is the reason devs will not be targeting ps2 (or ps3), but will be targeting Wii.
*Looks at Japanese sales chart* Oh look, a PS2 game is number one! *Looks at US sales chart for March* Oh look, GOW2 outsold everything!* Yeah, PS2 sure is dying.
Enough with the cognitive dissonance. If Wii can outsell the PS2 with a smaller userbase, the the PS3 can outsell the Wii with a smaller userbase. Your argument does make any sense at all since it contradicts itself so readily in that respect. If userbase is all that matters, PS2 will the ultimate console for the rest of time. You cannot deny aspect of your argument. If not, then any console, PS2 or Wii, can always be replace by another console with a smaller userbase.
*I know we don't have March NPD numbers, but you get the idea.
That may have more to do with why MS is screwing its customer like that, but that's another topic for debate.
crazygambit
Regular
Why do you that is though? Could it have anything to do with the fact that a lot of that large userbase are bored with a 6 year old piece of hardware and crappy graphics and want to move on? The really important question (that noone knows the answer to) is how long will it be before the Wii's userbase grows bored with it and start to look for something new. If the answer is long enough for Nintendo to come up with its next-gen offering, then they're fine (unless of course the PS3 somehow managed to compete favourable on price/features with this new console) and the PS3 might really be in trouble in Japan (though not necessarily as it may be able to coexist with a hugely successful Wii ala PSP/DS).
If the answer is long before Nintendo has their next console ready, then Japanese devs will probably shift their support to the PS3 which should be at price much closer to mainstream appeal, in which case the PS3 will be doing quite alright.
At least that's how I see it. It will depend (besides Sony's ability to provide meaninful content) on how long the Wii's appeal last.
quest55720
Regular
And this doesn't screw the Core how? BTW they aren't just expansion packs, they're also patches which means bug fixes and balance issues also screw the Core version. In short, the Core users gets an inferior experience. I don't see how this become any more clearer.
Hence you agree (with your own words no less). If or when these MMOs come out, the Core is screwed even more.
*Looks at Japanese sales chart* Oh look, a PS2 game is number one! *Looks at US sales chart for March* Oh look, GOW2 outsold everything! Yeah, PS2 sure is dying.
Enough with the cognitive dissonance. If Wii can outsell the PS2 with a smaller userbase, the the PS3 can outsell the Wii with a smaller userbase. Your argument does make any sense at all since it contradicts itself so readily in that respect. If userbase is all that matters, PS2 will the ultimate console for the rest of time. You cannot deny aspect of your argument. If not, then any console, PS2 or Wii, can always be replace by another console with a smaller userbase.
1 good selling game a week means squat when nintendo has 40 out of the top 50 games on thier platform many weeks. Nintendo has also had many weeks where every game in the top 10 is on thier platforms. The PS2 is in decline in japan and has been for around 18 months. There have been many weeks were there are 0 or 1 PS3 game in the top 50 of games sold in japan. That is just horrible performance. The PS3 has been out almost 6 months in japan and is not even close to selling a million units and the system is not supply constrained. I don't think any one would of predicted the PS3 tracking worse than the gamecube and approaching dreamcast like numbers. If you don't think sony is in trouble in japan you are living in denile.
If a person does not have a high speed internet connection then I don't see why they should have to buy a system with a hard drive that is almost useless to them. Almost every feature the hard drive uses needs a high speed internet connection.
ps2 said:Exactly!
Point is it isn't a large market with consoles and you're basing this opinion on something that is unlikely to come true given recent trends... Like Bluray replacing DVD before ps4 comes out.
*Looks at Japanese sales chart* Oh look, a PS2 game is number one! *Looks at US sales chart for March* Oh look, GOW2 outsold everything!* Yeah, PS2 sure is dying.
Hey look at that ... They did manage a #1 didn't they? How's next month looking? How's the rest of the entire sales chart looking? Nintendo owns Japan currently and the trend does not show signs of changing.
You'r right. My logic does have a hole there doesn't it. Now all that needs to happen is for a title to come along on ps3 to consistantly outsell Wii and we can discuss your grand theories of greatness for ps3 in the region. And after the ps3 maintains multiple titles that exhibit the same chart topping behavior, I can start to take your theories seriously. Until then, Japan = Nintendo.
Those are DS games, not Wii games. You're getting your Nintendo platforms confused.
It's in "decline" due to market saturation and lack of new games. Last year FFX still sold a couple of million units, so it's not nearly dead.
One of the biggest mistakes you can make in business is thinking you'll be on top forever. A criticism aimed at Sony most of time, but Nintendo is just as susceptible. It's quite ironic the ones who accuse Sony of this can't see it in their own position. In short, if you think Nintendo with its Wii and DS will rule the gaming industry forever, then you could be more wrong.
Luckly broadband adoption is comingly along nicely.
Point is it isn't a large market with consoles and you're basing this opinion on something that is unlikely to come true given recent trends... Like Bluray replacing DVD before ps4 comes out.
Doesn't change the fact that I was completely right: 360 suffers from userbase fragmentation, and it could get worse.
Nintendo owns Japan currently and the trend does not show signs of changing.
No, DS owns Japan, not the Wii. No one disputes the DS victory in Japan.
There's a huge hole in your logic and you in total denial of it. For 7 years, PS2 ruled Japan with an iron grip. Then Wii came along, and ruled for 5 months so far. PS3 can't ever take that away from the Wii? That's a pretty damn big logically hole.
quest55720
Regular
Those are DS games, not Wii games. You're getting your Nintendo platforms confused.
It's in "decline" due to market saturation and lack of new games. Last year FFX still sold a couple of million units, so it's not nearly dead.
One of the biggest mistakes you can make in business is thinking you'll be on top forever. A criticism aimed at Sony most of time, but Nintendo is just as susceptible. It's quite ironic the ones who accuse Sony of this can't see it in their own position. In short, if you think Nintendo with its Wii and DS will rule the gaming industry forever, then you could be more wrong.
Luckly broadband adoption is comingly along nicely.
Not really for rual areas I got very lucky to get my high speed internet. I was less than 500 feet from never being able to have high speed and it only took till 2006 for me to get it. There are 10s of millions of people who can't get real high speed I don't count satellite because of its horrible latancy.
Nintendo does not have to rule for ever just long enough to steal support from sony in japan. Once that happens nintendo will be in the position sony once had with the PS2. Sony has to get this turned around fast they losing support already and it will only get worse. Developers are not going to keep on pumping out 10 million dollar + exclusives in hopes some day sony will get this turned around one day. If there is one thing history has taught is momentum is a bitch. When momentum is on your side you can do nothing wrong and steam roll your oponents. When momentum is against your it is very very hard to turn it around. Sony has gone from 70% market share and having pretty much every good 3rd party franchise as an exclusive to 3rd place and 2 real exclusives in MGS4 and FF13.
There's 100 million 360 owners? News to me.
And you couldn't be more wrong if you think all 360 owners disagree with me. Why do you think the Core version is called the "tard pack?" It's widely hated and ridiculed by existing 360 fans, and many have called for it's elimination.
I was referring to the claim that Wii is selling 40 out of the top 50. That is the DS, not the Wii.
It can happen and that's exactly what we're discussing. If you think you know that the Wii has already won japan, then tell me tomorrows lottery numbers because both would need a crystal ball.
They're called ps2's and yes the functionality of the ps2 was deemd quite acceptable -fyi.
Never said xb360 owners agree or disagree, just the 100m+ ps2 owners.
True. And next on the list is Wii sales. In third place would be ps2 sales and somewhere down the line ... ps3 sales.
Sure it can happen. Never said it couldn't. Just that trends are not supporting your theories. Wake me when something of relevance occurs substantiating anything resembling current parity beween ps3 and Wii before you start talking of ps3 overtaking Wii in the region though.
Priorities.
Gotta walk before you can run.
I have no idea why UMD is relevant here as there are other hardwares that support Blu-ray.
In Japan BD players are not sold. What's on the market is primarily BD recorders that cost over $1500 now. BTW current BD players over $599 don't have the horsepower that can support BD-J unlike PS3. When the price become cheaper, the old argument that you have more bang for your bucks argument because buying PS3 gives you BD/gaming/web browsing/... at the same time becomes more important. That's the reason why the price drop is the priority number 1 and BD/HDTV is the number 2 in my list.
There's a price threshold, the price for a Wii is already under $299 and lowering it won't have a big impact on the demand. Also there's little margin for cost reduction for Wii due to its hardware structure, Wii has already fewer and smaller parts than other complex hardwares.
Think about some years later when the PS3 price is lower and Blu-ray is more popular. PS2 was released in the year 3 of DVD, but PS3 was released in the year 1 of Blu-ray.
With HDD you can update the system more significantly than only with a small flash storage for the firmware. Home is just the beginning, there will be more interesting services to come.
F@H is not a typical non-gaming application because it's free and without advertisement. There will be an offline application sold like a general PC application, or a distributed computing software of which producer pay SCE to put it on PS3. If it makes money it's not important whether it's a game or not.
Thanks, it proves you have no logic behind your comments
quest55720
Regular
I have no idea why UMD is relevant here as there are other hardwares that support Blu-ray.
In Japan BD players are not sold. What's on the market is primarily BD recorders that cost over $1500 now. BTW current BD players over $599 don't have the horsepower that can support BD-J unlike PS3. When the price become cheaper, the old argument that you have more bang for your bucks argument because buying PS3 gives you BD/gaming/web browsing/... at the same time becomes more important. That's the reason why the price drop is the priority number 1 and BD/HDTV is the number 2 in my list.
There's a price threshold, the price for a Wii is already under $299 and lowering it won't have a big impact on the demand. Also there's little margin for cost reduction for Wii due to its hardware structure, Wii has already fewer and smaller parts than other complex hardwares.
Think about some years later when the PS3 price is lower and Blu-ray is more popular. PS2 was released in the year 3 of DVD, but PS3 was released in the year 1 of Blu-ray.
With HDD you can update the system more significantly than only with a small flash storage for the firmware. Home is just the beginning, there will be more interesting services to come.
F@H is not a typical non-gaming application because it's free and without advertisement. There will be an offline application sold like a general PC application, or a distributed computing software of which producer pay SCE to put it on PS3. If it makes money it's not important whether it's a game or not.
Thanks, it proves you have no logic behind your comments
If you think it cost nintendo 250 dollars to produce the Wii we can stop right now. Nintendo will get the same cost savings as everyone else with die shrinks and other savings that come with building millions of units. Heck nintendo might get some very good cost reductions like putting almost all the chips of the Wii on a single die in the future. I would bet if nintendo really wanted they could get the Wii under 149 dollars as early as this time next year and still break even or profit of the hardware. Not like they have to since the Wii is supply limited world wide. Lets not forget while the PS2 sold well at 299 it was once the system hit 199 that casual gamers jumped on board in record numbers. The 199 price point is very important for a game console.
Gamers care about games first and for most not movie play back or 3d my space. Game library and price is what sells game consoles. Blue ray and home might be some cool little extras it is still not enough to get the average person to shell out a few hundred extra dollars. You can dress up the PS3 all you want at the end of the day a casual gamers sees a gaming console.
Where did I mention how much money Nintendo makes? I bet Nintendo is willing to make profit to offset the GC era and not willing to cut the price soon.
It's odd that you praise Nintendo while dismissing their appeal to non-gamers. Blu-ray or DVD is not a "cool little extra" but it's one of the biggest non-game applications that appeal to those who don't play RPGs and shooters.
