Well well well.....

The unforseen problem the Bush never saw coming is that the large international companies are treating Iraqi oil like the plague. This point was brought up in Congressional testimonal and why the costs of the invasion and occupation are actually increasing. The low-cost of the war was predicated on the sale of Iraqi oil. The profits from Iraqi oil sales aren't materializing since they're basically forced to sell at or even below cost. I wish I kept that link describing what's happening.

Looking back, it should have been obvious this would happen. Executives are traditional very conservative and won't open themselves up to risk, so why would they risk their 'sure thing' contracts with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, etc, but purchasing Iraqi oil and possibly having scorn thrown their way. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. They probably won't buy Iraqi oil until the furor dies down. They're also afraid about the long-term government of Iraq and whether it will be stable and honest to sign contracts with.
 
We're also finding that we won't be getting any military help from most of the NATO countries either. Apparently they're not going to offer support unless the UN decrees that it's ok or whatever. Apparently we've asked France, Germany, India, and a few other countries. Though the first two are no surprise, I am a little surprised that India wouldn't be willing to help. Maybe they're too focused on Pakistan atm, or our current alliance with Pakistan on Terrorism. Who knows......

The mud gets thicker.... $1 Billion a week... 5 years... Financial help on the horizon not being that forthcoming. No Iraqi oil for a few years that will even begin to make a dent into the costs of this war.

Oh, and this little ditty.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/937524.asp?0cv=CA01&cp1=1

The twists and turns never seem to end do they......
 
The mud gets thicker.... $1 Billion a week... 5 years... Financial help on the horizon not being that forthcoming. No Iraqi oil for a few years that will even begin to make a dent into the costs of this war.

Much of this was predicted prior to the war. 5 years seems like a resonable amount of time if you compair it to post WW2 reconstruction. Current costs are high but tolerable. If I recall correctly some scenarios went like this: Oil wells blown up and 1 year to put out the fires (therefore no oil money), door to door fighting in Bagdad with thousands dead, electrical grid destroyed, hundreds of thousands of refugees....

Yes the mud gets thicker,,,,but compared to what? You make it sound so.......political. Remember, it could have been a lot worst. Although we had hoped things might turn for the better nobody said this would be easy. We should be prepared for the long haul
.
 
Actually there were some estimates out there from the white house stating no more than 1-2 years before handing the government over to the Iraqi interim government. The 5 years was a "worst case scenario" estimate presented. The only reason I brought it up was because the $1 Billion per week cost of the war, and climbing apparently, was not foreseen by the economists in the administration or not shared with the public. The estimate was originally roughly $500 Million - $750 Million per week, max, for a monthly total of $2 Billion - $3 Billion. These estimates were released right after the war began in April.

[EDIT]So basically the cost of this war reconstruction/police effort has risen from $48 Billion - $72 Billion ($2 Billion - $3 Billion per month for 2 years) to $240 Billion ($4 Billion per month for 5 years). That's not even including the $80 Billion expended during the buildup and "war phase" of the conflict. The costs were originally hidden from the public, and I think that would have changed the timbre of the discussion.

Lawrence Lindsay lost his job in the administration in part because he stated that Iraq and the rebuilding costs could easily exceed $200 Billion, while the administration was pushing out a much lower figure of $50 Billion - $80 Billion. And we didn't find out about the costs of the war until the day it actually started, which I thought was circumspect to begin with anyways.[/EDIT]

And the fact remains that unfortunately it will take billions to restart Iraq's oil industry. We were told that Iraq's oil would pay for the reconstruction costs and whatnot. But now they're coming out saying that it could take a decade to get Iraq's oil back to pre-gulf war 1991 levels, which was roughly 3-5 Million BBL Oil a day I believe. But even at that time, it won't cover our country's costs if we extract "back pay." It's a lot to pay for, considering everything that comes due this decade. SS, Medicare, Homeland Security, etc.

The only thing that has perked me up a little is the fact that when the boomers retire within the next 10 years, there's going to be a massive influx of tax revenue into the government due to the removal of money from tax-deferred accounts. This is of course if the congress at the time doesn't vote to substantially lower, and/or remove the taxes on tax-deferred accounts. I read an economist's article the other day where he stated the the revenue from such accounts would amount to roughly $12 Trillion. A little high some rebutted (some are expecting maybe $8 - $10 Trillion), but still high nonetheless. Unfortunately, it won't help us today deal with our debt loads, and the increasing pressure those debt loads will put on interest rates for borrowing.
 
Hmmm.. Looks like the american public is catching wind of the things I've been speaking about. Latest CNN-Time Poll:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/07/20/bush.poll.ap/index.html

-----------------------------------------
Bush Approval Rating

54% - February
62% - March
63% - May
55% - Now

How Bush is handling situation in Iraq

Good Job:
55% - Now
69% - May

Poor Job:
40% - Now
27% - May

Registered Voters - Vote for Bush in 2004?

37% - Very Likely
16% - Somewhat Likely
9% - Somewhat Unlikely
36% - Very Unlikely
-----------------------------------------

Praise Jeebus, the american public really does give a damn about the truth and reasons for going to war after all. Yay!
 
Praise Jeebus, the american public really does give a damn about the truth and reasons for going to war after all. Yay!
Just wait till he announces another tax cut... :rolleyes:
 
The Baron said:
Praise Jeebus, the american public really does give a damn about the truth and reasons for going to war after all. Yay!
Just wait till he announces another tax cut... :rolleyes:

Naw he's probably hoping for another terrorist attack so he can ph33r the american public into higher poll numbers and reelection.

p.s.: That's what we call sarcasm. hehe.
 
Saved by the fine print... Although, perhaps, you'd fit in well at Guantanamo - share stories around the torture devices and such ;)
 
Vince said:
Saved by the fine print... Although, perhaps, you'd fit in well at Guantanamo - share stories around the torture devices and such ;)

You kidding? I've been waiting for my enemy combatant coupon. I'm insulted I haven't been rounded up yet. What's a man gotta do huh??
 
Naw he's probably hoping for another terrorist attack so he can ph33r the american public into higher poll numbers and reelection.

Nope. Even another terrorist attack will not save Bush. Why? Because eventually it will be found out that everything Bush pushed for, Homeland Security, massive detentions in other nations and deporting them to a concentration camp, mass fingerprintings at the border, invasion of Iraq, will have done squat to promote US security. Another terrorist attack would actually drive the final nail into Bush's pResidency.
 
Willmeister said:
Naw he's probably hoping for another terrorist attack so he can ph33r the american public into higher poll numbers and reelection.

Nope. Even another terrorist attack will not save Bush. Why? Because eventually it will be found out that everything Bush pushed for, Homeland Security, massive detentions in other nations and deporting them to a concentration camp, mass fingerprintings at the border, invasion of Iraq, will have done squat to promote US security. Another terrorist attack would actually drive the final nail into Bush's pResidency.

IIRC Bill, Bush is enjoying a fair amount of support from the public in the US.
 
RussSchultz said:
So you're saying that we knew as a fact, before we went in, that all the chemical weapons that were documented to exist at one time no longer existed?

I know this is a long ways back, but NO, that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that the Bush Administration knew for a fact, before he gave his State of the Union speech, that the Iraqi/African Uranium purchase attempt cited in the speech never occurred, and was kept in as a deliberate attempt to mislead the public on the severity of the threat the Iraqi regime posed to the safety of the American people, (because we all know that mustard gas doesn't have the same effect on the American psyche as a mushroom cloud).
 
Nope. Even another terrorist attack will not save Bush. Why? Because eventually it will be found out that everything Bush pushed for, Homeland Security, massive detentions in other nations and deporting them to a concentration camp, mass fingerprintings at the border, invasion of Iraq, will have done squat to promote US security. Another terrorist attack would actually drive the final nail into Bush's pResidency.

You know, the way you write it like Catch-22: if no attack happens you'll say it had nothing to do with any Bush pushed for, and if, God forbid, another terrorist attack happens, anything Bush pushed for did "squat". Yes theres room constructive criticism, but nothing done so far has helped deter attacks? Not even going after Al Qaeda in Afghanistan?

So what would you do to deter another terrorist attack, Mr. Terrorist Expert?
 
Natoma said:
Naw he's probably hoping for another terrorist attack so he can ph33r the american public into higher poll numbers and reelection.

Nah, that's a liberal tactic: actually try and, for example, prolong economic failure to try and bolster their own re-election chances.

And, no, no sarcasm here...just a real news story. (From LA Times, which requires free registration...entire article cut and paste):

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget22jul22,1,3160607.story?coll=la-home-headlines


Democrats Discussed Extending Budget Crisis

July 22, 2003

By Evan Halper and Nancy Vogel, Times Staff Writers

SACRAMENTO — In a meeting they thought was private but was actually broadcast around the Capitol on Monday, 11 Assembly Democrats debated prolonging California's budget crisis to further their political goals.

Members of the Democratic Study Group, a caucus that defines itself as progressive, were unaware that a microphone in Committee Room 127 was on as they discussed slowing progress in an attempt to increase pressure on Republicans to accept tax increases as part of a deal to resolve the state's $38-billion budget gap.

The conversation was transmitted to roughly 500 "squawk boxes" around Sacramento that political staff, lobbyists and reporters use to listen in on legislative proceedings.

According to Republican staff members who captured parts of the meeting on tape, Los Angeles Assemblywoman Jackie Goldberg and others discussed holding up the budget to dramatize the consequences and build support for a ballot initiative that would make it easier to raise taxes.

"Since this is going to be a crisis, the crisis could be this year," Goldberg said, according to a transcript. "No one's running [for reelection]. And maybe you end up better off than you would have, and maybe you don't. But what you do is you show people that you can't get to this without a 55% vote."

The ballot initiative would let the Legislature approve any tax increase with a 55% vote. The state Constitution requires a two-thirds majority. That means that under the current makeup of the Legislature, at least eight Republicans must join the slim Democratic majority for a tax increase to pass.

Fabian Nunez, also of Los Angeles, agreed. "If you don't have a budget, it helps Democrats," he said.

While a delay might serve the tactical advantage of Democrats, its consequences are already being felt by students, vendors and the poor: Since the new fiscal year began July 1 without a budget, the state has already begun to cut off money to some programs.

Republicans noted that many caucus members have charged the GOP with holding the budget process hostage. Yet, those same Democrats are now caught on tape discussing ways to hold things up.

Assembly Budget Committee Vice Chairman John Campbell (R-Irvine) said he listened to about 20 minutes of the meeting on the squawk box in his office.

"It sounded like they were hoping to create a crisis at some point to further their political gains in other areas," he said. "I thought that was outrageous."

Campbell said Democrats also discussed whether delaying the budget would increase the chance of a union-backed initiative that would lower the threshold for new taxes to a 55% vote of the Legislature. The state Constitution currently requires that budgets pass by at least a two-thirds majority, which today would require that a few Republicans join a united Democratic majority.

Campbell said that the Democrats discussed leveraging the public's distaste for the Legislature.

"They were worried that if the Legislature appeared to have dealt with the budget crisis, the initiative may not play well," he said. "This is very surprising, considering they are in charge."

After about 90 minutes, a staffer interrupted to alert lawmakers that their meeting was not private at all:

"Excuse me, guys, you can be heard outside," an unidentified staff member said.

"Oh [expletive], [expletive]," Goldberg said.

"The squawk box is on," the staff member said. "You need to turn it off right there."

"How could that happen?" Goldberg said.

Democrats who attended the caucus session included Patti Berg, Eureka; Judy Chu, Monterey Park; Mervyn Dymally, Compton; Loni Hancock, Berkeley; Hannah-Beth Jackson, Santa Barbara; John Laird, Santa Cruz; John Longville, Rialto; Alan Lowenthal, Long Beach; and Patricia Wiggins, Santa Rosa.

Goldberg made no apologies about her comments with regard to the timing of a "crisis."

She said it was part of a discussion over whether it would be better to make deeper cuts this year, to show Californians the severity of the state's money troubles, or to disguise the problem this year and make more drastic cuts next year.

"It meant whether or not we do the things this year or next year that let the public understand how serious the situation is," Goldberg said. "They think if we skate by, it was all hyperbole up here.

"We're in a crisis," said Goldberg. "You don't have to precipitate one. The question is whether we should make that crisis happen now when it's really happening.... When you wait a year, you double the amount you have to cut.... Is it better to do it now or next year?"

Caucus members were girding for what many in the Legislature believe will be a budget approved by the Senate in the coming days with no new taxes.

The liberals in the group have been pushing for billions of dollars in tax hikes to preserve education and health programs, and were discussing whether to vote for the budget approved in the Senate or to keep fighting.

"There is a wide degree of unhappiness at the state of affairs and how the budget might be lobbed over from the Senate," said Assemblyman Mark Ridley-Thomas (D-Los Angeles), who belongs to the caucus but was not at the meeting that was broadcast.

"Some of us believe the budget is neither workable nor reasonable without revenue enhancements," he said. "Why should we support an unreasonable and unworkable budget? The Republicans have no monopoly on principle. If they can strike a hard line, why can't we?"

The sentiment suggests that the budget impasse could drag on even if the Senate brokers a deal.

Many Republicans in the Assembly are already saying that they won't vote for a budget the Senate passes because it assumes that the recently enacted tripling of the state vehicle license fee, or "car tax," will stand.

Dymally said the meeting room the caucus used was unfamiliar to members.

"The [microphone] switch was on, but there was no light on the switch, so we didn't know it was on," said Dymally.

He called the incident "small potatoes."

"Nothing secret, nothing intimidating, no grand scheme," Dymally said.

"We did not plan to precipitate any crisis.... We were trying to figure out how to avoid a crisis."

Times staff writer Dan Morain contributed to this report.
 
Hmm its an odd article there joe. How could democrats who are in POWER in CA help their own cause by prolonging an economic crisis. People tend to blame people in power. Itd give Arnie a real good chance in 06.

Also doesnt affect Bush's situation I think much.
 
pax said:
Hmm its an odd article there joe. How could democrats who are in POWER in CA help their own cause by prolonging an economic crisis. People tend to blame people in power. Itd give Arnie a real good chance in 06.

I didn't (nor did the article) claim they were SMART. ;)

The point is, the more that they can talk about "deficits" the more they believe they can sell the idea of "higher taxes" to close the gap. Democrats will argue and try to sell that the the deficit is the "CAUSE" of the economic problems. (Rather than reality, which is essentially the other way around.)
 
You know, the way you write it like Catch-22: if no attack happens you'll say it had nothing to do with any Bush pushed for, and if, God forbid, another terrorist attack happens, anything Bush pushed for did "squat". Yes theres room constructive criticism, but nothing done so far has helped deter attacks? Not even going after Al Qaeda in Afghanistan?

Politics is all about perception. Presidents always are blamed for any sh*t that goes down whether deserved or not.

So what would you do to deter another terrorist attack, Mr. Terrorist Expert?

There really isn't much one can do. Criminals are always one step ahead of the law. Sadly, the best you can do is make it difficult for amateurs. The hardcore terrorist will always manage to get around any obstacles in front of them, or just choose another easier target. They took over four airliners with box cutters. I'm not sure anyone ever saw that coming; many people like me saw the possibility of something like that but never thought anyone would actually do it... The best way to deal with people like Osama is to remove their power base. It's about the only thing one really can do and the US withdrawal from the Umma might just take a lot of Osama out of his own cause... Taking Afghanistan probably did very little to hamper al-Qaeda as a group. They can just up, move and blend within their new host population and wait out the storm.

Another 911-type event is very difficult. Terrorist groups are extremely selective about membership. 'Applicants' have to be smart enough to get around police and other authorities, but still dumb enough to not realize what they're doing to others.
 
Democrats will argue and try to sell that the the deficit is the "CAUSE" of the economic problems.

Didn't Republicans like Gingrich constantly whine about deficits and were the ones who proposed a Balanced Budget Amendement in their little Contract with America?

More proof that Republicans and Democrats are largely interchangeable.
 
Willmeister said:
Didn't Republicans like Gingrich constantly whine about deficits and were the ones who proposed a Balanced Budget Amendement in their little Contract with America?

More proof that Republicans and Democrats are largely interchangeable.

Um, where are Republicans now saying that running large deficits for long periods of time unchecked is a good thing?
 
That's because they're not saying it all. They've, by that I mean Congress and the Oval Office, just created the worst Federal deficit in US history, and barring an economic miracle, the deficit will be with America for a long time. They don't want say anything that may come back to haunt them in the future. Mention of the 'D' word is now strictly forbidden and never to be uttered by another Republican... that is, of course, only until the Democrats are back in power and the Republicans can return to their Quixotesque crusade against the deficit dragon.
 
Back
Top