WAG: Best selling next generation console.

[Squilliam]

I got kicked out for being too pedantic.

I guess even lawyers have their limits!

think for the purposes of this poll, it's clearly which discrete hardware model released in the next 12 months sells the best over the following five+ years. An Android box that isn't Puya doesn't count towards that object, nor does a handheld that runs PS4 games streamed count towards PS4 sales. If one platform becomes progressive getting biannual updatse, we'll have to argue that one when it happens.

I guess we could also cross the bridge of 'platforms' if and when they actually become a significant issue. I suspect that it'd be too complicated to actually cover more than one definition here and besides it's all for a little fun since this is a WAG and not actually a prediction as you kindly edited into the title!

So does a modern Ivy Bridge Tablet running Windows 8 count as a console when running Metro?

 

[Arwin]

I guess even lawyers have their limits!

Not on billable time. These were teachers, different priorities.

This generation is going to be extremely tough to predict. The only thing I'd dare wage half a prediction on, is that Microsoft has a good shot at winning in the U.S.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Besides it's all for a little fun since this is a WAG and not actually a prediction as you kindly edited into the title!

That was BRiT.

Not on billable time. These were teachers, different priorities.

I didn't really go to law school. I just like to be particular when it comes to measuring things.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Oops, I mashed up my vote and voted Wii(thoght it was an old thread from before this gen before I read the OP).

I would predict Sony will win next gen. I predict second and third place will be a battle between Nintendo and MS, it will be close, but with MS edging out in front globally.

My reasons?

Games.

I honestly don't buy the spiel about services. They aren't as important outside the US, and most third party service providers will want to have a presence on all three consoles anyway.

Games will differentiate next-gen, as they did this gen, as well as the online gaming platforms.

Sony will close the gap next-gen between the features of PSN vs XBL. And with their larger stable of quality first party developers, they will come out swinging on launch with a solid games lineup that will carry the momentum of their platform going forward.

MS will focus on software and services, and will do well in the US (maybe even edge out Sony in sales, however I believe it will be much closer than this gen). However, I think globally their gaming library will suffer in finding enough high-profile exclusive content, and their initial launch sales surge will begin to taper off quickly.

Nintendo will continue to find much success in their home territory (Japan), among the younger demographic and their enthusiastic core fanbase. They will however fail to beat MS to second place given their lack of any real strategy in the online space.

 

[RobertR1]

What about the unsafe bets such as the emerging markets in Brazil, India, China, Mexico and Russia? They represent a significant increase in terms of the number of potential customers and with Japan becoming significantly less important we may need to pay more attention to these markets in the future. We could be talking about a tri-polar world between NA/Europe and the developing markets, Japan may not be worth talking about in a couple of years.

This will matter in the 2nd half of next gen. The 360/PS3 will be and are "new" to these markets currently so the cycle will not be cut short for them.

However, I'd say it's the generation after next where they will be a force. The upcoming generation will be to lay more groundwork and build up loyalty.

 

[antwan]

Sony will be the best selling in Europe, why?
- Europeans have high income and will pay for quality
- Europeans also like unique gaming experiences
- Europeans don't associate MS with quality

As for the USA; exclusive map packs for the annual Call of Duty; those are real system movers.
So If Sony can secure some exclusive map packs, then it's world domination.
Japan is a given

 

[Acert93]

As for the USA; exclusive map packs for the annual Call of Duty; those are real system movers.
So If Sony can secure some exclusive map packs, then it's world domination.

Yes, as the key to North America, as everyone knows, is map packs!

Japan is a given

Yes, Nintendo rolled over

 

[antwan]

Yes, as the key to North America, as everyone knows, is map packs!



Yes, Nintendo rolled over

timed exclusives and timed exclusive map packs is what most Americans/xbox users regard as "exclusives", so yeah.

As for nintendo, I didn't know they were producing a next-generation system? Like this generation it will have it's own games and own market. Also Wii sales have been below PS3 for the past few years in that region if I'm not mistaken

 

[Rotmm]

Sony will be the best selling in Europe, why?
- Europeans have high income and will pay for quality
- Europeans also like unique gaming experiences
- Europeans don't associate MS with quality

Great list. However you could look at it like:

- Europeans aren't prepared to pay for quality, happy to accept free substandard online services
- Sony gamers like shooters, racers and football games (but don't care about online quality) as the top 30 selling titles are pretty much either shooers, racers and football games.
- In Europe "Playstation" = "Games Console" Like "Coke" = "Cola Flavoured drink". Europeans associate Playstation with Toy, Microsoft with PC.

]As for the USA; exclusive map packs for the annual Call of Duty; those are real system movers.

No, Call of Duty is a console mover. The top 3 selling PS3 titles are from the Call of Duty series.

So If Sony can secure some exclusive map packs, then it's world domination.

If Sony can develop a brand as strong as Halo then that will help them all the more.

Japan is a given

As another posted mentioned.... Nintendo? You can't call it next gen just because it doesn't have the processing power of the other 2 consoles. It was the next generation in the Nintendo line and arguably ushered in the next generation of control systems.


So to paraphrase, Sony will do well in Europe because there will be plenty of shooters on PS4 and hopefully they will appeal to the cheap nature of us Europeans by offering a free online infrastructure. Nintendo will probably kill them in Japan again though.

 

[djskribbles]

Nintendo will probably kill them in Japan again though.

I'm not so sure that's a given IMO.

 

[Rotmm]

I'm not so sure that's a given IMO.

To be honest, I'm not 100% convinced either. But Sony have struggled to really engage the Japanese consumer, both with consoles and handhelds, for a very long time now and Nintendo have really grabbed that market opportunity, even quickly turning around a poor start with the 3DS.

I think with the WiiU it's Nintendo's to lose rather than Sony's to win.

 

[Platon]

Sony will be the best selling in Europe, why?
- Europeans have high income and will pay for quality

You haven't kept up with the economy news lately it seems...

 

[Brad Grenz]

timed exclusives and timed exclusive map packs is what most Americans/xbox users regard as "exclusives", so yeah.

360 is the leading CoD platform by virtue of the 360 coming out first and being cheaper. As a result a larger portion of the market owned 360 and had friends lists built up there. I doubt many 360 players actually care whether PS3 owners get maps at the same time or not. CoD still sells to PS3 owners at basically the same rate as it does to 360 owners. Activision would never have made the same deal with Sony this generation, not if it meant pissing off 2/3rds of their customers.

 

[-tkf-]

Going with Sony.. unless they screw everything up it's their market to grab back.

 

[Arwin]

I voted for Sony, and to be honest this time not because I think it is likely they will win, but because I *want* them to win.

 

[BoardBonobo]

I've been thinking about this and I've come to the decision that al I want from my next console purchase is a gaming console. One that plays games and just games. Between my PS3, Xbox, PC, and Wii I've got all the media options I need covered for the foreseeable future.

As there is only one box out there that proclaims itself to be a pure gaming rig I have to change my vote to Ouya!! Dead Trigger and Shadowgun THD look pretty good on the big TV running off my Pad 300 (using a Sixaxis for control).

 

[Arwin]

Well, and I thought Nintendo was pushing things by holding us back a generation - you want to take it further and make hardware go backwards.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Pretty much everything you're all saying about next gen was true this gen, and Xbox didn't even come close to coming in first. It didn't even outsell the PS3 all that much, even with the year lead.

IMO, Sony's biggest problem was launching at $599 and having few compelling games, all while the 360 was in its 2nd year (usually the first good year of a console). And PSN just wasn't ready. That won't happen next gen. No way are PS4's launch and design going to be mishandled that badly. And PSN now has the basic features most people expect--I really think much more would just bells and whistles that might be nice, but won't really affect sales much. If (a) they perform as strongly as they did in the latter part of this gen, and (b) launch effectively and on time, they could end on top.

But I don't think Wii U is going to go nearly as well as the Wii did, because Nintendo seems to have abandoned its 2005-2007 philosophy and the customers it brought into the fold. All the worst pathologies of that company are coming to dominate product development again. Thing is, Nintendo has so far to fall that it could still come in first while drastically underperforming expectations.

MS also suffered from severe launch problems that seemed to prevent them from doing better than they could have. I'm guessing they've figured out that you can't launch hardware without thorough testing and then just expect to patch it later. So they will fix those problems. But their plans to expand have been typical Microsoft--add more checkboxes to the product specs. And none of their big plans have resulted in explosive growth. So I don't see them in a bad spot, but I don't see why I should expect them to lead. Their barely-beating-Sony-for-second-place thing mainly happened because Sony screwed up so, so, so, so badly, and I don't think that's going to happen again.

The end story is I have no idea who will "win."

 

[kagemaru]

Pretty much everything you're all saying about next gen was true this gen, and Xbox didn't even come close to coming in first. It didn't even outsell the PS3 all that much, even with the year lead.

IMO, Sony's biggest problem was launching at $599 and having few compelling games, all while the 360 was in its 2nd year (usually the first good year of a console). And PSN just wasn't ready. That won't happen next gen. No way are PS4's launch and design going to be mishandled that badly. And PSN now has the basic features most people expect--I really think much more would just bells and whistles that might be nice, but won't really affect sales much. If (a) they perform as strongly as they did in the latter part of this gen, and (b) launch effectively and on time, they could end on top.

But I don't think Wii U is going to go nearly as well as the Wii did, because Nintendo seems to have abandoned its 2005-2007 philosophy and the customers it brought into the fold. All the worst pathologies of that company are coming to dominate product development again. Thing is, Nintendo has so far to fall that it could still come in first while drastically underperforming expectations.

MS also suffered from severe launch problems that seemed to prevent them from doing better than they could have. I'm guessing they've figured out that you can't launch hardware without thorough testing and then just expect to patch it later. So they will fix those problems. But their plans to expand have been typical Microsoft--add more checkboxes to the product specs. And none of their big plans have resulted in explosive growth. So I don't see them in a bad spot, but I don't see why I should expect them to lead. Their barely-beating-Sony-for-second-place thing mainly happened because Sony screwed up so, so, so, so badly, and I don't think that's going to happen again.

The end story is I have no idea who will "win."

I really don't care to comment much on MS and Sony since that can go in so many ways. IMO one thing that is holding MS back is their lack of penetration in Europe. With it basically being Sonyland over there for many of the countries, MS really needs to concentrate on that region. IMO if Sony can get the great marketing back from the PS1 and PS2 days, they can win America over again. Sadly I think it's that easy for them in the states.

Now Nintendo, they have the most challenging hurdles next gen IMO. A big part of their market this gen, hate to say it but the casual group, are the least likely to upgrade for the sake of more performance or added features. They jumped on the Wii for a reason and if they cared for more features or better graphics, they may have picked up a PS3+Move or 360+Kinect by now. The other issue I see with the Wii-U is the Wii-U pad isn't as new, revolutionary, exciting, etc. as the Wiimote was in 2006. Anyone that cares about having a pad, or gaming on a pad, most likely has an Ipad by now. I understand that the Wii-U is fundamentally different than the Ipad in many ways, but to joe-shmoe, it won't be as appealing as the Wii was at the dawn of this generation. The concept of a the Wii-U pad isn't nearly as fresh, and fresh ideas are what win over the market that made the Wii a success.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I really don't care to comment much on MS and Sony since that can go in so many ways. IMO one thing that is holding MS back is their lack of penetration in Europe. With it basically being Sonyland over there for many of the countries, MS really needs to concentrate on that region.

Or ignore it completely and become a success in South America and Asia. The developing nations may end up being where next gen is won, which is where a cheap Android player or something might come out on top.

Lots of variables!