WAG: Best selling next generation console.

[Squilliam]

Who do you think will win the next generation and why? I think we're close enough now for us to take the gloves off and make some predictions we'll regret later. It's kinda like getting drunk but having everything stored and retrievable forever on the internet.

I predict:

Spoiler

Durango! This is because I believe that software and services will define the next generation and whilst the games are still important I wouldn't personally give the edge in that department to any one console manufacturer. I think the key here is the fact that they've developed the Xbox 360 ecosystem to such a good extent and Durango looks like a certain extension of what the Xbox 360 achieved with the added bonus of Windows 8 tie in.

So lets make some predictions to regret later!

 

[RudeCurve]

I also predict Xbox because of what they've done with Smart Glass and plan on doing to integrate W8 functionality into it. I predict you'll be able to at least run W8 RT apps on it if not a full W8 Pro OS with full x86 software compatibility. This is of course if it includes a x86 AMD CPU, 8GB+ RAM and ARM processors like the rumors suggests. All the guts of a PC will already be there so why not? If MS offers W8 Pro for use with it, it will likely be a separate purchase and not included in the box.

 

[McHuj]

Right now I'm thinking Xbox. I think MS has the better resources to deliver the product more cheaply. They can take a loss, I dont think Sony can, or at least a big one. I think if MS conitinues with the on contract program, that could be a killer way to provide the console at what appears to be a low price.

If Sony is late to launch (2014), then I think they have no chance to beat MS. If they both launch at the same time and MS over reaches with all they extra features at the expense of gaming, and Durangon is a big mess like Windows 8 is turning out. I think Sony could regain their lead. Who knows.

 

[swym]

Well, the Ouya is getting a nice headstart according to kickstarter

 

[BoardBonobo]

I think if Sony get their act together and properly integrate their media resources with the SEN and provide a working delivery mechanism for all mobile devices, excepting iOS of course, they could be onto a winner.

Microsoft may have more cash reserves at the moment but I think they've already cocked up the Surface idea, their OS market is becoming more irrelevant day by day, and they have very little traction or desirability in the mobile space. I think they might be fighting too many wars on too many fronts and will be feeling the strain soon.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Without even a price for these new devices, or hardware, or business strategies (subscription model?), etc., surely this thread is more a 'complete guess' than a prediction thread at this point?

 

[djskribbles]

I couldn't even make a guess on one at this point. My guess would be either MS or Sony and the price they launch at and when they will launch will determine (for me) who sells the most.

 

[Acert93]

No product info, no price, makes wild predictions wild!

 

[Squilliam]

All I can say shifty is that luck favours the bold.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

In that case I'll pick 'Other' . If gaming shifts to onlinr streams or Android or iOS, I'll be quids in.

 

[Squilliam]

I think you need to take some pills for that tablet obsession of yours. ;-) Anyway I think for tablets we do wait for the H.265 codec do we not? I suspect that once they get decent hardware encoders and enough hardware decoders they could be in with a shot. However the problem with the whole online streaming is that consoles can also do it too!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I flipped a coin. Heads for Xbox, Tails for Playstation. It came up heads.

Regards,
SB

 

[RobertR1]

Safe bets.

US = MS
Europe = Split between MS and Sony
Japan = Sony

I haven't followed Nintendo much at all to give input on what they're doing.

 

[Squilliam]

Safe bets.

US = MS
Europe = Split between MS and Sony
Japan = Sony

I haven't followed Nintendo much at all to give input on what they're doing.

What about the unsafe bets such as the emerging markets in Brazil, India, China, Mexico and Russia? They represent a significant increase in terms of the number of potential customers and with Japan becoming significantly less important we may need to pay more attention to these markets in the future. We could be talking about a tri-polar world between NA/Europe and the developing markets, Japan may not be worth talking about in a couple of years.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Sony, because they're already focusing on cloud gaming.

As mentioned before, if they equip the console with some forward-thinking I/O options (10GBit ethernet, WiFi ac, HDMI 2.0/Displayport, thunderbolt), PS4 may become PS5 and PS6.

 

[kache]

I agree with Squillian. The one to win will be the one catering emerging markets.
And considering how these emerging markets often barely even have Internet, it won't be the one to focus on cloud gaming

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think you need to take some pills for that tablet obsession of yours. ;-) Anyway I think for tablets we do wait for the H.265 codec do we not? I suspect that once they get decent hardware encoders and enough hardware decoders they could be in with a shot. However the problem with the whole online streaming is that consoles can also do it too!

Actually, what'll constitute a next-gen console? Even if Android devices become the basis of gaming, connected to a TV with a controller, they aren't next-gen consoles because they are a constant evolution rather than a fixed box. Only an actual console would count as 'other' and I doubt we'll see that. Ouya isn't going to remain a Tegra3 box for 5 years, I'm guessing. What if the next console from Sony or MS is a family of hardwares that is updated every two years. Does that count as a console? Shouldn't really.

We're more looking at brand sales I think. Not 'which console will sell the most' but 'which gaming platform'. And in that respect PC also counts (he says, inviting all the PC gamers to vote other so he doesn't feel quite so lonely in that poll option ). I guess then PSMobile counts as Sony.

This business is all getting a bit complicated!

 

[Squilliam]

Actually, what'll constitute a next-gen console? Even if Android devices become the basis of gaming, connected to a TV with a controller, they aren't next-gen consoles because they are a constant evolution rather than a fixed box. Only an actual console would count as 'other' and I doubt we'll see that. Ouya isn't going to remain a Tegra3 box for 5 years, I'm guessing. What if the next console from Sony or MS is a family of hardwares that is updated every two years. Does that count as a console? Shouldn't really.

We're more looking at brand sales I think. Not 'which console will sell the most' but 'which gaming platform'. And in that respect PC also counts (he says, inviting all the PC gamers to vote other so he doesn't feel quite so lonely in that poll option ). I guess then PSMobile counts as Sony.

This business is all getting a bit complicated!

So how well did ya do at law school? I guess you can't really define it in strict terms which is why I left the 'other' open for interpretation. It's fine by me if someone defines Steam as a 'games console' given the fact that it is a console interface on a computer for playing games. You could say it really is one part of whatever you want it to mean (within reason) and one part the future. In the traditional sense the traditional consoles are no longer traditional consoles. I guess we have to fall back on what suits us on a personal level, I guess you could say 'connected multimedia game device' is the current definition of games console.

 

[Rotmm]

As I got it completely wrong last time (PS3 -> XBOX360 -> Wii) I am in no position to make a valid prediction.

However, here goes.

1) PS4 - I really believe that Sony have learnt from their early mistakes this generation and will reclaim their crown in the console world. With Kaz at the helm of Sony worldwide talking convergence, no new media format to push and a strong stable of development studios, I really can't see how Sony can fail to win.

2) WiiU - It doesn't interest me, but then the Wii didn't either. However, the Wii quickly developed a huge install base and those purchasers are a ready audience for Nintendo to tap into. With their huge franchises and ability to appeal to a wide variety of demographics, I see another Wii-like success. Can it be sustained though? Or will it see a similar fall-off like the Wii? I suspect the latter, meaning Sony will take the overall crown.

3) Xbox720 - The Xbox 360 has done phenomenally well, imho, bringing into the fold many a Sony fanboy, while latterly expanding the audience. While Sony spoke about the PS3 being able to do everything, Microsoft quietly went about the task of actually delivering on that. However, it's still only really successful in 2 markets (one of which, the UK, is a small subset of a larger market) and many of those all-round features are geared towards those. Without the ability to become a truly global brand, the market for 720 is naturally limited and will hold MS back to 3rd place next generation, especially as the new convergent Sony deliver on the promises that their portfilio of companies can offer.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So how well did ya do at law school?

I got kicked out for being too pedantic.

I guess we have to fall back on what suits us on a personal level, I guess you could say 'connected multimedia game device' is the current definition of games console.

I'm not thinking hardware so much as what the software runs on. We can take a console to be XB3 or PS4 or WiiU, a fixed box with fixed hardware that'll play games written specifically for that box. We can count which of those boxes sold the best to answer this question. But what if every XB3 game also runs on Windows 8, such that the same Halo game runs on XB3, PC, and tablet? Then the PS4 box could outsell XB3 consoles 3:1 and yet the XB platform in terms of devices running XB software might extend to much larger than PS4.

I guess you are counting the fixed boxes, which is the traditional expectation and one I'd also instinctively go with. We might also need to measure platform success in terms of devices playing platform software when it comes to evaluating which platform did best. But then Android surely wins that category hands down, even without Android TVs and consoles? And would Ouya count as a console or an Android box?

I think for the purposes of this poll, it's clearly which discrete hardware model released in the next 12 months sells the best over the following five+ years. An Android box that isn't Puya doesn't count towards that object, nor does a handheld that runs PS4 games streamed count towards PS4 sales. If one platform becomes progressive getting biannual updatse, we'll have to argue that one when it happens.