I'm a huge fan of surface and x86 tablets in general but seriously ?
The surface will use some form of ivybridge ulv chip. Here is the performance range of that.
[snip on the graphs]
The thing wont be good for much more than 2 years and older games. I think its going to take an act of god to get more gaming power into the surface. Even if they get haswel since this wont be out till 2013 anyway what will we see 40% better performance ? Your looking at $800 + for the surface. A $500 2013 console will blow the surface away in every metric that matters. a $800 dedicated gaming device of 2013 or even a $200-$300 one would likely blow away the surface.
Is that basically about what consoles are running now? Between 30-60 fps for well developed games. About 15-25 fps for badly developed games?
So that puts it right in line with a home console. Throw in a 7" screen and you can likely get away with rendering at 480p resolution with better assets than medium/low detail settings and noone would be able to tell the difference from a 720p game until it was output to a big screen TV.
10 years ago, if a 40 year old business man who did a lot of commuting wanted to play games just to while away the travel hours, he'd have had to buy a GameBoy. 8 years ago, he'd have had to buy a DS or PSP. Now, he can buy a DS/3DS, PSP/Vita, or use his phone. If his interest in gaming isn't particularly in the type of games, then there's no need care about buttons..
Actually 10 years ago, a 40 year old business man would likely have been gaming on his phone already.
Assuming we're talking about Japan.
Gaming on phones was already a big thing in Japan, even back then. Granted not particularly sophisticated, but then most iPhone app games aren't terribly sophisticated either.
And the handhelds still did well. Granted the iPhone has certainly closed the gap and surpassed the handhelds in some ways (potential graphics fidelity) but is still years behind with regards to game content and length. Then again, there isn't much you can do to address that if you are designing your game for the 0.99 USD price point.
Somehow I feel if a company were to release a modern DS/PSP game on iOS at a modern DS/PSP price that the game would tank. That would suggest that people gaming on iOS devices aren't necessarily interested in the types of gaming experiences and thus
cost of games that are typically available on handhelds.
Basically what it boils down to. Is that people with a 3DS/PSP2 are more likely to purchase games in the 30-50 USD range. A price range that can support the developement of large and complex gaming experiences. I doubt that most people gaming on iOS devices would be similarly willing to purchase games in the 30-50 USD price range. Hence games that are targetted at someone like the 3DS/PSP2 will never succeed on an iOS device.
I think the Win8 tablets "might" be able to make some inroads, as the x86 tablets will be able to play the entire back catalog of PC games from the day it is released. But then again, an x86 slate is going to be more expensive than an ARM slate. And will still require a extra controller for precise controls that is already built into a handheld console. But on the plus side you can then hook it up to any big screen TV you wish. Even in hotels, assuming hotel TVs have HDMI inputs. Making them equivalent to a portable home gaming console, which also allows you to play some of your library on the go like a handheld console.
Regards,
SB