US$199 quad core tablet - is it the end for handheld consoles?

[eastmen]

I don't know if that's universally true anymore. Hardcore folk will buy it all, but those semi interested in gaming may not need a handheld or console especially if they already have a tablet, which millions will. I look at articles like this:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/06/27/epics_infinity_blade_for_ios_more_profitable_than_gears_of_war.html

...which tells me that not only is there an underserved market namely tablet owners craving better games, but also that it's possible to make good cash in that market with far less risk than traditional games. I think it's too tasty of a market to ignore, and a standard x86 tablet will be impossible to not target by publishers and developers. Like I stated elsewhere I figure devs will make games compatible on as many platforms as they can to minimize risk so I'm assuming we'll see lots of software for x86 tablets because it's already similar to the pc platform so costs to port games over are minimal. I already think handhelds are dead because of phones, and tablets will be the final nails in their coffin. Now I'm curious how many will pass on spending another $400 on a console and just stick to their pc/tablet instead. Mind you I'm secretly hoping Microsoft goes x86 on their next console as well and makes the apps cross compatible, so that I buy an app once on their app store and I can use it on my pc, tablet and console.

Yes its the most profitable game the company has ever made in terms of many years invested versus revenue. Its however not the most profitable game ever made.

Just because they can take an already made game and throw in textures from past games and get people to buy it doesn't mean its the future of gaming.

Tablets will never work right for games like skyrim or gears of war and if you do add a control scheme why would you play on a small 10 inch screen when you can do the same thing but use a 60 inch screen.


All this talk of tablets reminds me of the talk of netbooks and we all saw how that went. Its a new industry and people want to show off their new expensive toys but outside of a few genres i don't see the gaming boon lasting and for every angry birds , infinty blade and so on there are hundreds of other games that make no money . Not to mention that its very fickle and the boon can switch in a second where at one point its words with friends and then its draw something and then its where's my water and sometimes the fads last a week and sometimes a month.

 

[liolio]

Well touting Netbook as a failure is quiet a strech, they sold by wagons.
They are being replaced as tech is moving on.

Then the issue is which device mobile device allows you to play Skyring or Geow anyway?
And second point is that relevant to this market, as you said some games are indeed better on a big display.

I can see more pc games working with a tablet + stylus set-up than on the 3ds or the psv by the way.

 

[joker454]

Tablets will never work right for games like skyrim or gears of war

Why not? Sit on hammock, put tablet in lap, play with 360 controller, done. Every single game that can be played on a pc that works with the 360 controller can be played on an x86 surface tablet in your bed, on your couch, on a patio chair, at a hotel, on a cruise ship, in a car, whereever. On your pc set the app to max settings and rock on. On your tablet set the game to tablet settings and play the same way, ideally with the same single Skyrim or Gears of War app purchase on the Microsoft store. The only wildcard to me is how many publishers will allow the user to buy an app once and use it on pc, laptop and tablet. I feel it can be done, they are the same os and same hardware base after all (win8, x86, 360 controller) but it may be up to the publisher to decide to allow that.

and if you do add a control scheme why would you play on a small 10 inch screen when you can do the same thing but use a 60 inch screen.

So you can play them anywhere and hence have no need for any more devices. In theory some people will only need a single x86 surface tablet for *all* their computing/gaming because it can serve as desktop (use its standard inputs to add keyboard, mouse, plug to monitor), serve as a laptop (use its standard keyboard), serve as a tablet (use it as is), serve as a portable gaming console (add 360 controller or just use touch), and serve as a tv gaming console (add 360 controller, connect to tv). Even if you did have pc + tablet, with cloud saves you can still keep playing anywhere.

I doubt all games will support multiple input forms but they dont have to, again because the x86 tablets support keyboard, touch and 360 controller out of the box anyways. I figure some games will though, notably point and click style adventure games I bet will get updated so you buy the app once and play it on pc with mouse/keyboard, and tablet with touch.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I am still waiting for someone to explain me how tablets and phones vs handheld consoles isn't PC vs (home) consoles all over again.

It's not really, other than degree. But that degree is large. Home gaming is a sit-down-and-spend-hours-in-front-of-the-TV-experience. Consoles offered a unique experience there that was very popular. Mobile gaming is in part fill-in-a-few-moments-waiting-for-something. That used to only be possible on handheld consoles, hence a large market, but now smartphones can do that. That sector of mobile gaming no longer needs a handheld console, reducing the market.

The same will happen with PCs when they are smallish boxes that people are happy connecting to the TV in the living room, but at the moment there's a different experience with consoles and PCs so the two can exist side-by-side, and it's very possible that the Pc will change enough to be more like a console anyhow (simplified interface) or be replaced along with consoles with simple terminals to the net. In the handheld space, only those who want button+pad control will want a dedicated handheld; those wanting digital pastimes can be satisfied with their phone/tablet.

Or putting it another way, where 10% of everyone who owned a PC that could game also wanted a living room TV, disc-in, press-buttons/waggle/jump about experience that only the consoles offered, and the rest were happy to play web games and solitaire, all of 1% of mobile owners (maybe) want a dual-thumbstick, button mashing gaming experience and the rest are happy to play simple touch games, or more sophisticated touch games once they're finally written.

 

[Arwin]

Yeah, but my iPhone 3GS is already stretching itself. My wife has one too. The first one I got from my work, and the latter I bought for her (on a plan).These are large investments, and while they both have 16GB, that will never increase and will have to be shared with stuff like navigation software, music, audio books, and so on. That's not to say that we don't play games on them. But my wife plays WordFeud on it, where she would previously never play games at all (except tetris once, but that could be played on phones for a long time already). Her friend, also only played Bejewelled clones, already possible as a java game for a long time.

Then we have an iPad, which is a great device for games for my son (Angry Birds Rio, Where's My Water), internet, youtube, watching photos, etc. All great stuff, but most of these take away from the PC. Yes, nice bonus it's easy to bring this along, but when my son is playing, I can't play, and the space issues (also 16GB, already full) come into play exactly the same way.

Looking at other kids, they still get DSs, with games like Pokemon. Already some of my kids peers (well, 1-2 years older) are bringing their DS to school. Do you see any iOS device yet that you trust your kid to do that with? Or even trust them alone with when you're not around? (not only do they break really easily, though at least our iPad is heavily protected now, they could easily lock out your account, delete your mail, etc.)

That's all before the controls even come into play, but they remain important - this will not go away until touch screens give feedback on your touch, and will still appeal to all those gamers who grew up with the dual analog, just like the d-pad never really went away when the analog stick came. Vita and 3DS have a head-start that will not easily be caught up with. They can of course definitely lose market share, but they will keep a market, and I am even so bold as to predict that the more pervasive mobile devices become, the more likely there will remain room for 'niche' products like dedicated gaming machines, where niche in this case probably means 100 million at least.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't see how that challenges what I was saying. Kids are part of that small percentage market. And
a ruggedised Android for Kids device might serve that market eventually. Your wife is served for casual games on her devices like many were served by Tetris in Windows 3.1 Entertainment Pack and Solitaire. The question is how many people on the buses, trains and plains who used to fill in the time with DSes and PSPs are now filling in the time with their mobile? How many teenagers who only want a bit of simple gaming would pick a Vita or 3DS over a smartphone? Once upon a time, teens wanting light mobile gaming had to have a console, like GameBoy or GameGear. Now they can get light gaming on their handheld. Only those wanting a more 'core' experience from their handheld will not be satisfied with a phone or tablet, and I think that's a small percentage of people.

 

[zed]

even with simple old games you had the mouse and at least one button, and no one of this occupied half of the screen like your hand does

my latest game, Ill upload to the appstore at the end of the month (takes ~2weeks to get approved)

doesnt require any buttons at all!, you control it my tilting the device. In fact the control by tilting is more accurate and realistic than any way you can control it with a mouse/keypad/joystick whatever

I agree buttons on the screen are a joke, unless theyre quite big and should be banned. Im a bit pissed off that the next iphone is not gonna have a larger screen (its wider but that doesnt allow you to make your buttons bigger)

 

[Arwin]

I don't see how that challenges what I was saying. Kids are part of that small percentage market. And
a ruggedised Android for Kids device might serve that market eventually. Your wife is served for casual games on her devices like many were served by Tetris in Windows 3.1 Entertainment Pack and Solitaire. The question is how many people on the buses, trains and plains who used to fill in the time with DSes and PSPs are now filling in the time with their mobile? How many teenagers who only want a bit of simple gaming would pick a Vita or 3DS over a smartphone? Once upon a time, teens wanting light mobile gaming had to have a console, like GameBoy or GameGear. Now they can get light gaming on their handheld. Only those wanting a more 'core' experience from their handheld will not be satisfied with a phone or tablet, and I think that's a small percentage of people.

And I'm saying that even those teens won't buy a new smartphone every year, need it for actually calling
(a lot), and those that weren't that interesting in games didn't have a DS or anything like that before either. I'm over-exaggerating, truth is a little in the middle, but it may hold. We'll find out over the next few years for sure.

 

[eastmen]

Why not? Sit on hammock, put tablet in lap, play with 360 controller, done. Every single game that can be played on a pc that works with the 360 controller can be played on an x86 surface tablet in your bed, on your couch, on a patio chair, at a hotel, on a cruise ship, in a car, whereever. On your pc set the app to max settings and rock on. On your tablet set the game to tablet settings and play the same way, ideally with the same single Skyrim or Gears of War app purchase on the Microsoft store. The only wildcard to me is how many publishers will allow the user to buy an app once and use it on pc, laptop and tablet. I feel it can be done, they are the same os and same hardware base after all (win8, x86, 360 controller) but it may be up to the publisher to decide to allow that.

And why would you do this instead of simply playing on a 40+ inch tv . You know tvs are getting better and cheaper all the time. For what I spent on my 42 inch tv in 2007 I can now get a 60 inch tv .

Why would someone choose a tablet over a dedicated device , esp when there will be a huge gulf in the capabilitys of said devices. Who is going to want to play on a 10 inch screen vs a 60 ?

I plan on playing games on the surface pro or whatever x86 tablet i choose when the time comes , however i don't plan on playing FPS games on it because 1) There is no reason since i have consoles and a desktop pc and 2) because the extra equpiment would make the device less portable and will defeat the purpuse of the tablet in the first place.

So you can play them anywhere and hence have no need for any more devices. In theory some people will only need a single x86 surface tablet for *all* their computing/gaming because it can serve as desktop (use its standard inputs to add keyboard, mouse, plug to monitor), serve as a laptop (use its standard keyboard), serve as a tablet (use it as is), serve as a portable gaming console (add 360 controller or just use touch), and serve as a tv gaming console (add 360 controller, connect to tv). Even if you did have pc + tablet, with cloud saves you can still keep playing anywhere.

Yes but it will serve as a poor gaming substitue. Even if it goes with the fastest ulv ivybridge your still talking about an experiance that is unplayable

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And I'm saying that even those teens won't buy a new smartphone every year, need it for actually calling
(a lot), and those that weren't that interesting in games didn't have a DS or anything like that before either.

But there will be those who would have bought a handheld console when smartphones didn't exist, who now will be happy to just use the gaming functions of their phone. Whereas the PC doesn't have that same draw yet; you don't have people wanting to game thinking, "I could get myself an XB360, but I could just use the PC instead," because the mindset doesn't encourage gaming on PC, and PC doesn't provide waggle, jumping, SingStar, certain exclusives, etc.

10 years ago, if a 40 year old business man who did a lot of commuting wanted to play games just to while away the travel hours, he'd have had to buy a GameBoy. 8 years ago, he'd have had to buy a DS or PSP. Now, he can buy a DS/3DS, PSP/Vita, or use his phone. If his interest in gaming isn't particularly in the type of games, then there's no need care about buttons.

That same business man at home wanting to game in the living room would have wanted an XB or PS2 or GC 10 years ago. The PC experience wasn't comparable. 8 years ago, the same. Now, it's still very much a choice of console as the PC hasn't made in-roads for lots of reasons.

If the same business man's gaming interests at home were low priority, then from ten years ago to now he could have just used his PC and played Tetris, Solitaire, web games and Facebook games.

The difference is that the home gaming requirements tend to be more robust than the mobile gaming requirements such that mobile can get away with not having buttons to press so a smartphone can serve those requirements.

Putting it another way using pie-in-the-sky illustrative numbers. In a population of 1 billion people:

500 million want to play some form of computer games at home
200 million want to play action games; shoooters, racers, sports
200 million want to play party games
300 million are satisfied with simple web games

That's a large exclusive market for consoles to target without competition. Whereas in the handheld space:

750 million want to play some form of games on the go
40 million want to play action games; shoooters, racers, sports
1 million want to play party games (??)
710 million are satisfied with simple games

The dedicated handheld market is much, much smaller. Unless it can be proven that a large slice of the mobile gaming market is keen for button+stick control, touch devices will displace them.

 

[Arwin]

That 40 year old business man never bought a gaming handheld though. He'd be using his Blackberry to answer mails, make calls 8 years ago. Today, he's buying an iPhone and RIM is in big trouble.

The two markets that I think will suffer are the casual gaming market, insofar as the DS encroached on these with its Brain Training type games, and the media features of the PSP. These will both have drawn a bigger crowd than gaming traditionally have, and I am sure Smartphones will eat a piece of that pie.

Smartphones and tablets eat from all of the pies, but I am still convinced it is a mistake to believe that they will eat them up completely. They add new pies, people have more flavors to choose from, consumption of pie will increase, and there will be competition for the space in consumer's stomachs, sure, but when rice, spaghetti and pizza entered our country, they didn't kill off the potato either (which in itself didn't kill off meat, bread, beats and coal). When meat became cheaper and mass produced, it didn't mean that people stopped eating vegetable foods altogether either.

I don't think you even have one of the handheld consoles, or you would probably be reminded much more strongly how much better the experience is. I can't see it disappear on any short terms.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That 40 year old business man never bought a gaming handheld though. He'd be using his Blackberry to answer mails, make calls 8 years ago. Today, he's buying an iPhone and RIM is in big trouble.

Plenty of business commuters have played with handhelds - just ask Patsu.

The two markets that I think will suffer are the casual gaming market...

And I put it to you that the majority of the handheld market prior to smartphones was casual gaming, and these casual gamers will be saitisfied with a smartphone and not need a dedicated handheld console. At which point the handheld console market will practically dry up over the coming years.

 

[Arwin]

Plenty of business commuters have played with handhelds - just ask Patsu.

But patsu isn't typical. After all, he owns a Vita now, just like me, and I bet he's on my side of this argument - if you've got experience with games, and you've played with Vita and the games it has already at five months out, smartphone gaming looks fairly pathetic in comparison. And like I said before, my wife, 45, now plays WordFeud. It's the only game she plays, but she never played before. I bought her the iPhone in the first place, before that she barely even brought her phone with her. I don't know any adults besides me and one or two friends I know from gaming already anyway who ever bought a handheld console. Most people I know now have a smartphone, but almost all of them stopped playing any games on them a few months after they got it, apart from a few exceptions, and they all only play games like WordFeud.

All that's moot however, as your businessman example is pretty irrelevant to Nintendo. 80% of DS owners in 2008 were between 8-16. I'm sure the majority of those will replace those with smartphones with a nice dataplan eventually, but I'm willing to bet some serious money against it taking a loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time before even half of those have switched over (PSP owners were between 18-24, btw)

Quite a lot of adults I know bought iPads though, and at home, that's the platform kids are currently playing on (The Netherlands has one of the highest market penetration for tablets, iPads in particular), but it doesn't stop them from also getting a DS. Many of those iPads are iPad ones, by the way, and most of them are not planning an upgrade within the next five years.

And I put it to you that the majority of the handheld market prior to smartphones was casual gaming, and these casual gamers will be saitisfied with a smartphone and not need a dedicated handheld console. At which point the handheld console market will practically dry up over the coming years.

The majority of the Nintendo market was people who want to play Nintendo games. I was just talking to an old Japanese acquaintance about getting a DS, and what the alternatives were, etc. Turns out there were no alternatives - the kid wants to play the new Pokemon. This hasn't fundamentally changed, not yet at least. It could, but I'm saying it isn't as straightforward as people make it sound.

Maybe you should make a voting thread with some nice figures on market share and revenue, so we can go on record on voting where we think the industry will be in 1, 2 and 3 years from now.

 

[upnorthsox]

Plenty of business commuters have played with handhelds - just ask Patsu.

And I put it to you that the majority of the handheld market prior to smartphones was casual gaming, and these casual gamers will be saitisfied with a smartphone and not need a dedicated handheld console. At which point the handheld console market will practically dry up over the coming years.

The majority of the handheld market was and is teen and under. Smartphones and tablets are not going to significantly shift this market.

 

[liolio]

I'm not sure if it's a relevant or not but in the parisian subway , kids and teen aside I used to see a lot of girls playing the DS.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The majority of the handheld market was and is teen and under. Smartphones and tablets are not going to significantly shift this market.

I disagree. Teens like gadgets. Years ago a DS or a PSP was a cool gadget to own. Now most teens would rather have a high-end phone. My sis bought a DS for the occasional game, but it now gathers dust as the occasional game can be played on her phone. A friend bought a PSP as a portable media player, but now he uses a tablet. The functions of the handheld are being provided by other deivces, with the only exceptions being button-based games, and library as Arwin says if you have to play Pokemon. That leaves the uncontested market for handheld consoles as only those people who want to play Nintendo games, and those who want to play button-based games specifically. That's a subset of the market that used to be interested in handheld consoles. Sony are as aware as this as to be investing in a platform agnostic means (two actually!) to get their PS content onto multiple devices, rather than have their content limited to just a subset of the 60 million PSP owners.

 

[Arwin]

I disagree. Teens like gadgets. Years ago a DS or a PSP was a cool gadget to own. Now most teens would rather have a high-end phone. My sis bought a DS for the occasional game, but it now gathers dust as the occasional game can be played on her phone. A friend bought a PSP as a portable media player, but now he uses a tablet. The functions of the handheld are being provided by other deivces, with the only exceptions being button-based games, and library as Arwin says if you have to play Pokemon. That leaves the uncontested market for handheld consoles as only those people who want to play Nintendo games, and those who want to play button-based games specifically. That's a subset of the market that used to be interested in handheld consoles. Sony are as aware as this as to be investing in a platform agnostic means (two actually!) to get their PS content onto multiple devices, rather than have their content limited to just a subset of the 60 million PSP owners.

I'm not contesting your sister or your friend, as I've said before, but you are still overestimating their market size as relative to dedicated portable gaming devices. Sony is aware of the huge potential market of smartphones and casual gamers using them, and is definitely right in looking at making some money there - they make phones too and Playstation is one of their biggest brands, and it's the obvious thing to do. The thing is, they're doing both, and it's a matter of wait and see how much return they will get on either end. Nintendo isn't crazy either. But everyone who thinks that smartphones and tablets will wipe away dedicated handheld consoles completely are just being fashionistas - the new thing is always overstated and exagerrated. I know this from experience - in 1992, I thought e-mail would be the new hotness (I was right) and that it would wipe out the fax instantly (I was wrong).

 

[wco81]

The majority of the handheld market was and is teen and under. Smartphones and tablets are not going to significantly shift this market.

There are videos of little kids (like 5 years old) screeching in excitement at getting an iPod Touch as a gift.

Kids gravitate to smart phones and iPads.

The thing that is going to keep smart phones and tablets from becoming big with kids is the price. Most parents aren't going to spend hundreds on a fragile piece of electronics for their pre-teens.

But as price comes down (while the price of handhelds go up, to try to compete with the performance profile of mobile devices), that obstacle is going away.

If Sony and Nintendo are smart, they have some contingency plans to port to iOS and Android, if their handheld businesses tank. Even before that happens, they should be looking into trying out some content on alternate HW platforms.

 

[tuna]

Why not? Sit on hammock, put tablet in lap, play with 360 controller, done. Every single game that can be played on a pc that works with the 360 controller can be played on an x86 surface tablet in your bed, on your couch, on a patio chair, at a hotel, on a cruise ship, in a car, whereever. On your pc set the app to max settings and rock on. On your tablet set the game to tablet settings and play the same way, ideally with the same single Skyrim or Gears of War app purchase on the Microsoft store. The only wildcard to me is how many publishers will allow the user to buy an app once and use it on pc, laptop and tablet. I feel it can be done, they are the same os and same hardware base after all (win8, x86, 360 controller) but it may be up to the publisher to decide to allow that.

You can do that today with any laptop. Why would tablets change anything? X86 tablets will also be more expensive than laptops.

 

[wco81]

That's the thing, ultimately what drives sales of tablets will be software designed for tablets.

People will realize it doesn't make sense to buy tablets to run desktop software, because they'd be paying more for a lighter but smaller-screen device, running software which was designed for mouse and keyboard.