Unusually negative analyst report on Gamestop/retail game sales

The quotes in the OP are talking about a variety of things.

First, Gamestop nearing the end of possible growth and going into permanent decline sometime in the next 18 months. Then listing a variet of reasons such as too many stores, lack of competition to purchase to fuel growth, the decline of relevance of packaged goods with regards to increased adoption of digital distribution. As well the decline of used goods through publishers seeking to gain income even when a used game is sold (one shot game codes).

It sounds like the analyst in the second article is extrapolating the eventual death of packaged goods game sales in preference of DD.

The third quote then goes into the possibility of gaming share going to smartphones. Again removing further potential revenue from Gamestop. That's where the prediction that a new console cycle "might" not start. If during the next 3 years, enough market share shifts to smartphones (iPhone, Android, and the big elephant in the house XBLive on WP7, and the always rumored PSP phone) then it's possible that current console makers will rethink their console strategies. That last bit is a long shot, even in the analysts mind. It's far more likely that consoles will be releasing sometime around 2013.

Either way, all of that is with regards to Gamestop. And all of it paints a rather grim future for the company if they can't successfully transition to DD. And even then it's a prospect of survival and not growth.

Regards,
SB
 
True enough, but I think Sony have got better vertical integration to leverage 3D than the competitors. They can push it on more fronts, and associate PS4 with 3D content better than other consoles because of it.

Unless Sony 3dTVs come with additional 3d tech that only the PS4 can take advantage of, vertical intergration will not matter.

Even then, its hard to imagine Sony investing in PS4 specific 3d tech (enough to create an appreciable advantage) that only can be taken advantage of by a segment of their userbase (everyone is not going to own a Sony 3dTV).
 
I think the OP at NeoGaf took these quotes as negative commentary on the general industry but its obviously not. Its about how current trends and shifts will negatively affect GameStop business.

The shift to digital delievery, the declining package goods sales, the increasing popularity of smartphones versus portable and the growing use of single use codes are all aspect of the industry that are going to appreciable affect on Gamestop's business.

I think the "if ever" comment is confusing because it seems to be used in a comprehensive manner. But I think it meant to highlight that every console, currently available, getting a next gen counterpart isn't a foregone conclusion in their opinion.
 
I think the OP at NeoGaf took these quotes as negative commentary on the general industry but its obviously not. Its about how current trends and shifts will negatively affect GameStop business.

Yeah, that was my point. It's not so much 'there's no money to be found in gaming' but 'the way we see gaming going, we don't see long-scale growth at gamestop'. Which still may not be good for people who enjoy games in the form they exist today.
 
Gamestop does not pay any money in research and developent of technology in any gen consoles.

See above but add game development technology.

See above but add hiring and salary of game programer making multithreaded game engine.

Its actually gamestop that has continued to support gamers with an attitude of buying lending and reselling games that actually combined with rentals eat away at sales numbers they so love to worship.

A bunch of gamers are still playing older certain online games and keep going back to those games not that its a bad thing but its part of the problem with too many games of the same genre or overhyped game.
 
Saw this over at GAF

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=23509448&postcount=48

UK August, 2010
01 (04) [WII] Just Dance (Ubisoft) 42,000 / 1,122,000
02 (_) [360] Mafia II (Take 2) 39,000
03 (01) [WII] Dance On Broadway (Ubisoft) 38,000 / 117,000
04 (03) [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) 35,000 / 274,000
05 (_) [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels Starry Skies (Nintendo) 33,000 / 57,000
06 (_) [PS3] Mafia II (Take 2) 30,000
07 (07) [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) 29,000 / 1,791,000
08 (_) [NDS] Toy Story 3 (Disney Interactive Studios) 26,000
09 (_) [NDS] Art Academy (Nintendo) 26,000
10 (_) [360] Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days (Square Enix Europe) 25,000

These seem like some pretty poor sales. And NPD was not a whole lot better last month software wise.

I dont really know what to make of it, but sales seem low, even for August.

And this

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/40862/New-low-for-UK-games-market

The UK games market’s weekly value has fallen to its lowest point since May 2006, according to Gfk Chart-Track.

According to MCV’s calculations, based on today’s Gfk-ChartTrack/UKIE weekly report, the UK market has hit £11.8 million for the week ending September 11th, down from £14.2 million the week before. The weekly value hasn’t topped £20 million since the launch of Red Dead Redemption in May.

The number of games sold was just 624,806, down 14 per cent compared to the week before.
 
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People won't buy if they feel there aren't any interesting titles coming out.

I suspect, people won't neccessarily buy the fourth, fifth, sixth... sequel of a game series either, as they may feel they have played that game already.

And the world economy still hasn't recovered since the financial crash of the past two-ish years.
 
Yes they sound bad on the face of it

esp when u compare them to japan weekly numbers eg last week
01. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.) - 2.557.779
02. [PS3] Front Mission: Evolved (Square Enix) - 51.084
03. [PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 5 (Konami) - 45.879
04. [360] Halo: Reach (Microsoft Game Studios) - 44.413
05. [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 36.547

ignore the aberration at #1, it seems in japan a title will typically sell in a week similar to the UK in a month

but heres NPD numbers for the month
Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii) – 124.6K
Mafia II (Xbox 360) – 121.6K

Super Mario Galaxy 2 3.56x more USA->UK
Mafia II 3.11x more USA->UK

OK that was madden month, but per head of population they dont seem that shocking
 
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