These are all just market rumours and speculation as usual. TSMC is ASML's biggest customer and has more than 50% of the global installed base of EUV machines. They always planned to take a high NA machine as early as possible for R&D purposes, they're just not buying in volume yet that's all. The timing and/or cost does not work for their current nodes up to A16. The next full node shrink, which is due in 2028 I think, may use high NA but TSMC haven't decided yet.
TSMC Execution [2024]
- Thread starter Silenti
- Start date
Well Nvidia is widely speculated to move to 3nm next year for Blackwell's evolution. This article is talking about the situation going forward, not just right now. Not saying it's a credible story, necessarily. Plausible, though.
The article seems fairly plausible. Currently only Apple and Intel are ramping 3nm in volume, but by the end of this year/next year we will see multiple other product ramps including Apple's A18 SoC(s), M4 & derivatives ; AMD Turin Dense, Strix Halo, MI350; Qualcomm and Mediatek mobile SoCs, and perhaps a few others but it seems clear that TSMC's 3nm is in high demand. Nvidia has surely prebooked capacity for Rubin but it does have sufficient competition for capacity for the foreseeable future.
That’s going to benefit TSMCs customers with the deepest pockets and further squeeze anyone running on low margins. Nvidia and Apple are probably unphased and maybe even welcome the higher prices that will put pressure on the competition.
5nm should be getting price cuts in the near future as the equipment is nearly fully depreciated for the initial production lines at least (TSMC operates on a 5 year depreciation cycle and the equipment was installed towards end 2019). Once 3nm fully ramps next year, 5nm utilisation should also drop which would also be a factor. TSMC is also introducing a lower cost N4C process which should be a long life node like N6.
TSMC To Raise 3nm & 5nm Prices By Up To 8%, CoWoS To Witness Price Increase Too
TSMC is set to implement a "price raise" strategy across its in-demand products since the Taiwan giant is eager to maintain its gross margins.wccftech.com
On 3nm getting price hikes, it's not surprising. HPC and AI demand is still strong. Though a large part of initial 3nm production was sold at lower prices years ago so it won't have much of an immediate impact.
DegustatoR
Legend
TSMC's Sky-High Costs For 2nm Chips And Tight Production Capacity Scared Apple Into Dropping Them From iPhone 17 Pro Models
Apple has delayed the use of TSMC's 2nm chips for the iPhone 17 Pro models due to higher production cost and lower manufacturing capacity.
wccftech.com
Dr.Kim would disagree
))I don't think Nvidia is shipping 3nm in revenue at the moment. In order of revenue the likely candidates are Apple, Qualcomm/Intel, AMD and Mediatek.
Yes, Apple is shipping iPhones, iPads and Macs with 3nm products.
Apple M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max, M4, M4 Pro, M4 Max, A17 Pro, A18 and A18 Pro.
DegustatoR
Legend
I like the "return" part there, apparently TSMC left the US at some point in the past.
He didn't say TSMC left US, but (high end) chip manufacturing did
So the intent here is to strongarm TSMC into building more fab plants in the US, which will take many many years, all while Americans have to deal with significantly increased prices from the tariffs during that wait.
Genius.
And let's not forget that states will still compete for contracts with subsidized deals paid for by our tax dollars!
Genius.
And let's not forget that states will still compete for contracts with subsidized deals paid for by our tax dollars!
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Even this is not entirely true. Intel neve really left the US, and keeps most of their best fabs in the US.
Sega_Model_4
Newcomer
They already have some under construction and Arizona will start producing A16 for Apple and Zen 5 for AMD.
TSMC To Begin Mass Production Of Apple’s First U.S.-Made A-Series Chips For The iPhone, Marking A Major Milestone For Its Arizona Plant
TSMC is aiming to begin mass production of Apple's A-series chips for the iPhone as soon as this quarter at its Arizona plant.
wccftech.com
TSMC Arizona Reportedly Starts Production Of AMD's Ryzen 9000 "Granite Ridge" CPUs; Facility Witnesses Tremendous Demand
TSMC's Arizona has started to gather massive orders from the industry, as a new report claims that AMD's Ryzen 9000 CPUs are in production
wccftech.com
arandomguy
Veteran
I think we're quibbling semantics here.
At one point high end chip manufacturing was basically Intel in terms of market share but the overall product landscape has changed.
Intel no longer represents the bulk of high end chip manufacturing as Intel chips themselves don't represent the bulk of high end chip sales and fabless companies don't use them. Fabless semi companies that have instead rose up (eg. Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Apple) and now represent the vast majority of high end chip sales but they all use TSMC with some Samsung.
Regardless the objective is to either shift fabless companies to Intel and/or have TSMC and Samsung build more in the US that would lead to shifting manufacturing back to the US. Not here to critique either way how this would work in terms of the given strategy but I think it's kind of clear what the stated intent is here.
