The ten year life-cycle

[Beer Monkey]

The reason PS2 is getting a 10 year life is because it had 70% global marketshare. With that kind of dominance you get the developer support and the retail shelf space to have such a long domination. Given the massive decline of marketshare this gen, PS3 won't last as long as PS2 and there really isn't anything Sony can do about that.

 

[Crossbar]

The reason PS2 is getting a 10 year life is because it had 70% global marketshare. With that kind of dominance you get the developer support and the retail shelf space to have such a long domination. Given the massive decline of marketshare this gen, PS3 won't last as long as PS2 and there really isn't anything Sony can do about that.

35% market share of a twice as large market might be good enough, think about it.

Anyway what is far more important is that there must be a constant stream of new innovative games. People will not be happy buying the same game over and over again. Sonys internal studios are clearly a part of the ten year life cycle.

 

[suryad]

I don't think many devs have fully tapped the power of the SPEs. I think that as time goes on PS3 games will continue to improve (gradually). I think the biggest limitation will be RAM.

I have to agree with you there. I wont be surprised if a PS3.5 version shows up with much more RAM in the system, and some possible clockspeed changes and some minor architectural cleanups.

 

[Richard]

I have to agree with you there. I wont be surprised if a PS3.5 version shows up with much more RAM in the system, and some possible clockspeed changes and some minor architectural cleanups.

First patches, then mandatory installations and now... upgradeable hardware! Reminds me of something, I wonder what...

 

[AlNom]

First patches, then mandatory installations and now... upgradeable hardware! Reminds me of something, I wonder what...

The borg?

 

[Crossbar]

First patches, then mandatory installations and now... upgradeable hardware! Reminds me of something, I wonder what...

I guess you are remembering this, right?

"We don't say it's a game console (*laugh*) - PlayStation 3 is clearly a computer, unlike the PlayStations [released] so far."

He went on to outline a scenario where many parts of the PS3 were upgradable, much more like a PC, noting: "Since PS3 is a computer, there are no "models" but "configurations"", and continuing (though talking in the theoretical): "I think it's okay to release a [extended PS3] configuration every year". It's clear from the comments that Sony is indicating that it will be possible to upgrade hard drives and perhaps even other components easily.

The Sony CEO gave another example in the interview: "As PS3 is a computer... it also wants to evolve. We'll want to upgrade the HDD size very soon - if new standards appear on the PC, we will want to support them. We may want the [Blu-ray] drive to [have a writable version upgrade]." He then tempered his comments: "Well, BD may not develop like that, though." But extensibility is what Sony is stressing that you get for the price of a PS3, nonetheless.

Kutaragi's comments echo a recent Phil Harrison interview in which he commented: "We believe that the PS3 will be the place where our users play games, watch films, browse the Web, and use other computer functions. The PlayStation 3 is a computer. We do not need the PC." The combined executive comments appear to signify a change in marketing tactics for the company, who may have always had this scenario in mind, but are pushing it much more strongly following a somewhat mixed E3 showing from a PR perspective.

Well Crazy Ken is no longer in charge, so we shouldn´t pay to much attention to his comments, but there may still be people at Sony sharing parts of his view. I am all for it, more and faster memory please, the sooner the better.

 

[Carl B]

Richard was just making a PC vs console dig in general, not relating to anything specific.

 

[Freak'n Big Panda]

As crazy as those comments might sound I always thought that if Sony supported some basic productivity apps on PS3 (Open Office or the like) and marketed it appropriately some users might find that it could replace their computer for the majority of their tasks.

As for the ten year life cycle, I think it's a definite possibility. I also wouldn't be surprised if PS4 wasn't released until 2014-2016. Firstly diminishing returns are quickly closing the gap between successive generations of gaming hardware. The difference between the best PS3 games and the best Computer games might be large technically and of course anybody on these forms would be able to spot the differences but I think less invested gamers would not be able to see the delta so easily. Also if you compare the best PS2 games to say 3DMark03 the gap is clearly a lot larger in terms of perceivable differences. Secondly sony lost a crapload on PS3 hardware and seeing how well the Wii did, all the while making a profit, will surely influence sony's management to be more cautious before releasing expensive hardware to soon.

 

[rpg.314]

As crazy as those comments might sound I always thought that if Sony supported some basic productivity apps on PS3 (Open Office or the like) and marketed it appropriately some users might find that it could replace their computer for the majority of their tasks.

With only 256 MB ram, it could be a little difficult.

 

[Crossbar]

With only 256 MB ram, it could be a little difficult.

Is Open Office that RAM hungry? Serious question.

 

[makattack]

Running native productivity applications on the PS3 in linux would be difficult/painful, but I would suspect using the browser and say google docs may work ok.

Nevertheless, I don't see the point. Personally, I know few people/families who would tolerate their main television/home cinema setup tied up while someone writes their thesis or inputs data into a spreadsheet.

For general computing needs, I keep a cheap (it cost me the equivalent of one PS3 game) IBM Thinkpad T21 from 2004:
Linux homer 2.6.27-gentoo-r7 #1 Sat Dec 20 01:12:05 EST 2008 i686 Pentium III (Coppermine) GenuineIntel GNU/Linux

It runs OpenOffice, mplayer, gimp, eclipse, and even a J2EE app server (JBoss) with 512MB RAM.

 

[RudeCurve]

Is Open Office that RAM hungry? Serious question.

It runs fine on my old P3 500MHz with 256MB RAM.

 

[Sonic]

Regarding God of War looking great on the PS2. By that time developers had a firm grip on the hardware and its strengths and weaknesses. It is perfectly possible to make a great looking game on any hardware as long as you focus on its strengths and downplay the weaknesses. God of War is a great example of this. the art direction that went into the series is something I really enjoy. The game looks technically good, but thanks to the art direction in the game and all the artists working on it is the reason it looks so good.

Regarding a 10 year life cycle for current systems, especially the PS3...I can see it happening to a small extent. It all depends where Sony goes with its next system. If they decide to go balls to the wall and put in very expensive processors, components, and bleeding edge storage system then yeah I predict the PS3 will have a nice long shelf life. If PS4 is more in line with what the market commands for (a respectable price) than the PS3 might have the shortest life of all the Playstations. If the PS3 lowers in price to a point where the mass market accepts it within a year or two then it can finally get a userbase worthy of making games for and extending its life.

 

[zed]

t runs fine on my old P3 500MHz with 256MB RAM.

my gf uses it all the time on a celeron 433 + 128mb + winXP.
XP+128mb dont mix well though, 128mb + win2000 is good though

 

[GuestLV]

I always thought that if Sony supported some basic productivity apps on PS3 (Open Office or the like) and marketed it appropriately some users might find that it could replace their computer for the majority of their tasks.

Time to bring back Amiga or Atari ST

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If they deliberately pursued that market, I could agree. However the investment is way beyond what Sony would invest. They've left it to the Linux community to create their own PS3 OS, and the Linux community just isn't interested (not that I blame them )

 

[rpg.314]

Is Open Office that RAM hungry? Serious question.

Well people have run Openoffice ok on older hardware, but cell with no OoOE considerably hurts single threaded IPC which most of the stuff is. Low ram is particularly troublesome considering the new window managers people generally use. Though there are light weight versions available.

 

[Richard]

Richard was just making a PC vs console dig in general, not relating to anything specific.

This. I'm merely bemused how opinions can change so quickly. It wasn't so long ago that people were using the argument "PCs are too complex with the patches, installations and having to keep abreast of the upgrade options. I'm getting a console instead." They're still simpler than the usual PC gaming experience of course, but still...

Anyway, about the ten year life-cycle. I agree with those that speculate this doesn't mean there will only be a PS4 in 2016. I'm still expecting new consoles around 2012. I am curious if Sony will be able to save production costs enough to warrant keeping the PS3 going after PS4's release. Let's assume for argument's sake that the PS4 is a return to form, both cost- and marketshare-wise; it might not be in Sony's best interest to prolong a costly PS3 (regardless of how much cost-cutting future revisions will bring) if that means canibalizing the sales of the PS4. I suppose in that cenario it would be very important for Sony to provide a robust PS3-BC feature-set to entice people away from a losing proposition.

 

[Crossbar]

I am curious if Sony will be able to save production costs enough to warrant keeping the PS3 going after PS4's release. Let's assume for argument's sake that the PS4 is a return to form, both cost- and marketshare-wise; it might not be in Sony's best interest to prolong a costly PS3 (regardless of how much cost-cutting future revisions will bring) if that means canibalizing the sales of the PS4. I suppose in that cenario it would be very important for Sony to provide a robust PS3-BC feature-set to entice people away from a losing proposition.

Maybe the PS3.5 will be called PS4 or the PS4 will show up much later than everyone is expecting.

 

[eloic]

Hm, I've been thinking about this whole thing, lately, and I'm becoming more convinced that Sony wasn't and isn't that arrogant by claiming this cycle as a possible fact.

I don't think that the consumer is ready to buy a new console within just a few years, because we are becoming more and more demanding regards graphical quality, and I don't think that we are going to buy any console that, after this generation, isn't possible to perform almost photographic graphics.

Moreover, (I can't tell you why but) Microsofts is truly concerned about some features of its rivals, such as Blu-Ray, the launchment of a PS3 Slim, the success of the Wii, and they aren't focusing in producing a new console, rather than improving the experience that its current console can provide to the consumer. I also think that Sony will go this way: improve the experience with the PS3, adding features and support, and launch a console when a true and significant graphical leap is possible.

In the meantime, we see as these companies will try to expand the features of their consoles, as I said before, and a proof of that are the new motion controllers, compatble with their current consoles, that they are planning to release.