The Next-gen Situation discussion *spawn

The Wii made people buy a console that otherwise wouldn't have bought one. Your car analogy only works if all the sudden you start considering Amish as car buyers. The Wii had a lot of non-core buyers and that showed later in its life when the attach rate was crap and hardware sales were slumping. MS and Sony finally started eating their lunch because they had dedicated customers with titles people wanted.
So you're saying that RancidLunchmeat is right and 'best' is objective - it's possible to quantify and identify the best gaming platform for everyone?
 
The thing is powerful can often fit everything else under its umbrella at some point during its life, if you start below powerful you will never get there. If early adopters don't pick up on the hardware you will have a tough first year which affects software development. Later in life the box will be cheaper, smaller and quieter, but that depends on getting there.
 
I agree. launch 360 was a loud hot and noisy machine(although rrod was something else), same with PS3.

I'm not saying Microsoft and Sony have to go that route this gen. But going the exact opposite way of attempting to provide a PS2 slim(in other words Wii U) at the start of the generation instead of incrementally getting to that point limits your choices very much in terms of power envelope.
 
There's another option. Make a cheaper, less powerful machine, powerful enough to attract new customers but not that'll great a big, expensive box. Sell it faster (15+ million a year) and upgrade it in three years. Or something. Maybe ditch it and go streaming only.
 
So you're saying that RancidLunchmeat is right and 'best' is objective - it's possible to quantify and identify the best gaming platform for everyone?

No, I'm saying the Wii broke the rules such that it becomes near impossible to answer that question without heavy caveats. The generation prior is much more representative of a normal console cycle. Content won (software library for PS2). One could argue content is winning again this time (xbox live being premier online community). The picture changed mid generation this time. It was pretty consistent last generation.
 
There's another option. Make a cheaper, less powerful machine, powerful enough to attract new customers but not that'll great a big, expensive box. Sell it faster (15+ million a year) and upgrade it in three years. Or something. Maybe ditch it and go streaming only.

US speeds are pretty slow. It'll be a hard sell when we don't even have fibre optics laid down anywhere in the country cause of the telecommunications industry's refusal to adopt that standard. I would not want to wait on them getting up to speed to support exclusive streaming over a network. Especially if your talking about that being the only way to run games.

Maybe we should just go back to 5 year cycles instead of 8 year cycles?

If we had had a new generation in 2010-2011, all these other "threats" to consoles would not exist in any form in my opinion.
 
There's another option. Make a cheaper, less powerful machine, powerful enough to attract new customers but not that'll great a big, expensive box. Sell it faster (15+ million a year) and upgrade it in three years. Or something. Maybe ditch it and go streaming only.
Where is that line? Somewhere just beyond the wiiu which already sells for $349?
 
That comparison isn't exactly fair...we know that Nintendo went super low end on their own time. They were looking for the very limit base console they could make with semi-modern tech that would be super power efficient/quiet and have a form factor at the same time and cheap enough to support their gamepad investment with their price and be profitable after a short time.

Even just forgoing the game pad could have had a good effect on the internals powerwise.

And Microsoft and Sony even going on the same cycle Nintendo has with 5+ years would make a more powerful system than the one Nintendo displayed for the same price. It seems they even intentionally gimped a lot of aspects to come in profitable.
 
It's the open space for discussing what the next-gen consoles will be (not technicals), looking at business choices and competition. Competition with PCs strikes me as a valid part of that. If the next-gen consoles are fairly middle spec'd, they will encounter much stiffer competition. My own assumption was at release, the new consoles would provide better value than a middle-of-the-road PC, but that might not be the case, at which point the value proposition of these machines need to be reexamined. Ideas like the latest crazy rumours suggesting PS4 will come with VR goggles would certainly differentiate. Somewhat. Unless Valve stick goggles on Steambox.

Shifty, my post that it was the wrong thread for PC vs consoles was in the Predict: The Next Generation Consoles thread, not in this non-technical one.

You mustn't have realised when you moved the posts across from that thread to this one. ;)

............

What are the specs of a mid spec gaming PC these days?

I think PS4/720 might be competitive. They certainly seem to have more RAM than Xbox/PS3 did relative to PCs of the time, according to the Steam Hardware Survey only 8.5% of PCs have more than 8 GB of RAM, back in 2005 I'm sure most PCs had more than 512 MB.
http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey

This is the list of CPU clocks and core numbers:
http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/processormfg/
http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/cpus/

And this is a list of all the GPUs in systems:
http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/

45% of people still have DX10 GPUs or lower. Looking at the most popular ones, I don't think Durango or Orbis will be much weaker.
 
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That comparison isn't exactly fair...we know that Nintendo went super low end on their own time. They were looking for the very limit base console they could make with semi-modern tech that would be super power efficient/quiet and have a form factor at the same time and cheap enough to support their gamepad investment with their price and be profitable after a short time.

Even just forgoing the game pad could have had a good effect on the internals powerwise.

And Microsoft and Sony even going on the same cycle Nintendo has with 5+ years would make a more powerful system than the one Nintendo displayed for the same price. It seems they even intentionally gimped a lot of aspects to come in profitable.
Nintendo claims it's a loss leader. If you exchange the wuublet for a traditional controller you're probably still a loss leader at $299. Which isn't that cheap considering it was the entry price in 2005. How cheap is cheap enough? What hardware fits in that budget and is still a significant enough upgrade to entice early adopters? I can buy a 360 for $150 with a huge library of games, where does this new hardware become enticing enough and cheap enough? What performance level and price point is the sweet spot to entice mass adoption?

For me if the next gen doesn't blow away current hardware, I'll be waiting a while. There will be plenty of 360 games for the next few years. If you're on a short upgrade cycle, I'd just skip the first. If the 2nd doesn't impress, they will have lost a customer. Of course there's also the issue of competition, I prefer the xbox because of the controller, but I would certainly lean towards the more powerful box.
 
But then what does your definition of "blow away" mean? Do the on paper specs have to be a certain level? Does the visuals and what the devs are able to do with the hardware matter more? Do the level of exclusive games or third party investment into the next gen matter as much as those other things?

There are plenty of variables. For me it doesn't really matter, cause my goal is to own all 3 next gen consoles anyway(i already have wii U), but for those who are saying what your saying, its something to think about, parsing your expectations accordingly. Its not too far off now.
 
I prefer the xbox because of the controller
Yeah the 360 controller is great. I really hate the PS3 controller, it's a cramp generator! I hope they'll improve it for "people with large hands" next time, but otherwise I wouldn't base my purchase on the controller if I can simply buy a third party one or use an adapter. I also hope MS will put an integrated lithium battery instead of AA like it's 1995.
 
Also, Nintendo says they are profitable with just one game title. They are also selling the pad for 180$(that's direct exchange rates) in japan. Why say they would not be profitable even without the game pad? Game controllers are not even close to being 100 bucks by themselves to manufacture.
 
But then what does your definition of "blow away" mean? Do the on paper specs have to be a certain level? Does the visuals and what the devs are able to do with the hardware matter more? Do the level of exclusive games or third party investment into the next gen matter as much as those other things?

There are plenty of variables. For me it doesn't really matter, cause my goal is to own all 3 next gen consoles anyway(i already have wii U), but for those who are saying what your saying, its something to think about, parsing your expectations accordingly. Its not too far off now.

For me it will be launch title visuals, they will need to set themselves well above the current gen (and before someone says it, people who claimed the xbox was just a version 1.5 at launch weren't paying attention). Paper specs don't mean a whole lot unless they are extremely impressive (say 2.5TF or more) or extremely unimpressive (say 1TF or less) I wouldn't read much into them.
 
Also, Nintendo says they are profitable with just one game title. They are also selling the pad for 180$(that's direct exchange rates) in japan. Why say they would not be profitable even without the game pad? Game controllers are not even close to being 100 bucks by themselves to manufacture.

And MS sold 20GB hdds in 2006 for $189. How much do you think they cost to manufacture?
 
For me it will be launch title visuals, they will need to set themselves well above the current gen (and before someone says it, people who claimed the xbox was just a version 1.5 at launch weren't paying attention). Paper specs don't mean a whole lot unless they are extremely impressive (say 2.5TF or more) or extremely unimpressive (say 1TF or less) I wouldn't read much into them.

I see, i suppose that's my view as well. Although i'm kind of uplifted by SE confirming that they will be showing "something different' in regards to Agni at E3 this year for certain. It makes me hopeful that the hardware that is in Durango/Orbis will simulate Agni's Philosophy level visuals, even if at only 720p 30fps. (as you can see my expectations are not very out there)

Would Agni level visuals be that "jump" your looking for?

And MS sold 20GB hdds in 2006 for $189. How much do you think they cost to manufacture?

Ah...point taken point taken :p
 
What are the specs of a mid spec gaming PC these days?

I think PS4/720 might be competitive. They certainly seem to have more RAM than Xbox/PS3 did relative to PCs of the time, according to the Steam Hardware Survey only 8.5% of PCs have more than 8 GB of RAM, back in 2005 I'm sure most PCs had more than 512 MB.

The next generation consoles will clearly be more powerful than your average gaming PC. That doesn't mean they will fair better against PC's overall that the last generation consoles. They won't.

They fall quite a bit further down the PC performance scale than the last generation consoles did and that PC performance scale starts at a much higher level than it did when PS360 launched.
 
That performance level dissipates quite a bit however, when 99% of devs actually code for those console specs.

There's a reason of course why a majority of the industry's devs want powerful consoles, its because they are going to be what they will primarily working with, everything else is either porting up or porting down.

Of course we already know this.
 
That performance level dissipates quite a bit however, when 99% of devs actually code for those console specs.

That's not in dispute. The point that I'm illustrating is that whatever the position was in 2005/6 with regards to the power of PC's vs consoles in graphical power terms, the position at the end of 2013 or whenever the new generation of consoles launch will be relatively move weighted towards the PC's.
 
How so? I'd argue that there are plenty of people who will be blindsided by certain things coming up next gen will be able to accomplish.

More specifically, i'm talking about certain PC gamers who think that their current set up will be enough to last throughout the entirety of next gen without having to upgrade. "because there's no way any console will be as powerful as even my single current gfx card"
 
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