The Next-gen Situation discussion *spawn

[wco81]

Arstechnica has a story about games sales being down for the first 3 months of 2012.

Steepest drop is Nintendo. Maybe they're reverting to the mean after setting a blistering pace until about a year or two ago.

But the other part is the rise of mobile, especially cheap or free games on smart phones and tablets.

Does that mean they need to design the next-generation to have a bigger gap in performance from mobiles.

 

[steviep]

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/...tely-blame-nintendo.ars?clicked=related_right

"Ten years ago, Nintendo largely catered to kids and Nintendo fanboys," Creutz said. "There was about a five year period they could expand their market beyond that, and now I think they're back back to the kids and Nintendo fanboys again. It's not a bad market but it's not a market that's going to grow enormously."

Gaming journalism at its finest.

 

[Prophecy2k]

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/...tely-blame-nintendo.ars?clicked=related_right



Gaming journalism at its finest.

Only thing I disagree with there is the part about the market not being the one to grow enormously. Kids IS the MOST important market. It's the market that will keep your product relevant in the next 10 - 15 years.

Nintendo has never had a problem capturing the minds and imaginations of children with their gaming IP and console HW. Their only issue has been keeping that interest in their product once those kids grow above a certain age. Nintendo should have made sure that people don't "grow out" of Nintendo HW and software, unfortunately they've been dreadful at that, and hence why the original PS cleaned up back in the day, and why they've utterly failed at capturing the growing "core" audience over the years.

 

[joker454]

What's setting Joe's expectations though? If it's the PC footage currently on TV, then the low-spec boxes should be close enough to that to be 'the same'. Certainly there won't be such a night-and-day difference that consoles will sit on shelves as console gamers migrate to PC because the new consoles look no better than the old ones, while the PC looks like a whole new technology.

See, that's why I can't help but think consoles are doomed longer term. You can already get next gen graphics today on pc and joe consumer has no interest in it. Then I see links like this:

http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/20/nvidia-projects-mobile-graphics-to-surpass-xbox/

...where it's predicted that mobile gpu's will surpass the 360s by 2014. So you have todays graphics that are good enough for the masses, and not too long in the future phones and tablets will be able to offer todays console graphics. Given general consumer apathy towards better graphics I still can't help but wonder why people think consoles will last forever when their tablets will eventually offer good enough level of graphics. I'd say face it, the masses just don't care. Even the so called "core" really aren't all that hardcore anymore about graphics, it's just not their primary focus anymore as 7 year old hardware is good enough for them.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I wouldn't hold my breath on Nvidia's chart coming to fruition as it essentially claims that graphics power in the mobile space will increase by a factor of 10 in the next 2 years. I hope they've developed a really good battery to go with that increase.

 

[joker454]

I wouldn't hold my breath on Nvidia's chart coming to fruition as it essentially claims that graphics power in the mobile space will increase by a factor of 10 in the next 2 years. I hope they've developed a really good battery to go with that increase.

Yeah they have exagerated such claims before, but one way or another I'd say the idea of phones and tablets offering "good enough" levels of visuals will not be science fiction in the not too obscenely distant future. As time goes on it will be fewer and fewer people that can appreciate the graphical differences that 10x hardware can provide. As that group becomes niche more and more means it becomes less and less likely that the budgets required for such visual masterpiece games can be covered. So I'm starting to think a console gen after the next one really won't be necessary.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I still can't help but wonder why people think consoles will last forever

Does anyone think they'll last forever? Technology never sits still that long. Consoles were only ever computers with a simplified OS and specialised hardware when that made sense, and it'd only need a nice consumer-focussed OS to make a PC or similar console-able. I don't think tablets will properly replace consoles though as the interface sucks until you have controllers as standard, and the battery life sucks even more. The battery power will be the limiting factor.

I also think the current graphics aren't good enough by a long chalk. There is substantial room to improve still, and when iPads and Galaxies are getting PS360 level visuals, console gamers will be getting much better, even if not bleeding-edge. Games like Sniper Elite, the demo of which I recently played, prove how valuable graphics can be to gameplay. That game would be much better with realism including photorealistic IQ.

Not that this has much to do with PS4 rumours, other than perhaps to fuel suspicion that Sony have listened to me and will be releasing PS4 as a tablet! Edit: hence I move the posts.

 

[joker454]

Not that this has much to do with PS4 rumours, other than perhaps to fuel suspicion that Sony have listened to me and will be releasing PS4 as a tablet!

Well more like hoping they are ahead of the curve and building a proper forward thinking software platform! If they just bring out yet another console then they may as well just shoot themselves in the head right now because they are wasting their time as the landscape is changing.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well, they still need hardware for another generation as they don't have a platform for whatever software vision they have (which they have at least put in the oven with PSS, whatever comes out). MS could ditch XB next-gen and direct all their XB gamers to PC with a simple OS upgrade and marketing, I reckon. But Sony are still dependent on hardware to establish a userbase that runs their software layer. I do believe a tablet would give them enough of a differentiator to gain presence beyond being 'just another box' as long as it was superbly executed with a proper docking solution as needed. If they have just another box, they'd better hope their 1st party can deliver like they've never delivered before as the USP!

 

[tuna]

See, that's why I can't help but think consoles are doomed longer term. You can already get next gen graphics today on pc and joe consumer has no interest in it. Then I see links like this:

http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/20/nvidia-projects-mobile-graphics-to-surpass-xbox/

...where it's predicted that mobile gpu's will surpass the 360s by 2014. So you have todays graphics that are good enough for the masses, and not too long in the future phones and tablets will be able to offer todays console graphics. Given general consumer apathy towards better graphics I still can't help but wonder why people think consoles will last forever when their tablets will eventually offer good enough level of graphics. I'd say face it, the masses just don't care. Even the so called "core" really aren't all that hardcore anymore about graphics, it's just not their primary focus anymore as 7 year old hardware is good enough for them.

How will you control these future games on these future tablet platforms and pcs?

 

[joker454]

How will you control these future games on these future tablet platforms and pcs?

With a wireless gamepad of course, just like on console. Hook the tablet to the tv via hdmi cable and use your 360 gamepad to play from the couch exactly like you do on a pc today. Win8 tablets will prolly support gamepad early on, and while iPad's don't have that standardized yet possibly because of Steve Job's disinterest in gaming, standardized gamepad support will come eventually to that platform. If it doesn't they it will just make it easier for Win8 based devices to eat their lunch.

When one can read an ebook outside on their tablet, then come inside plug it to their tv and play "console games" on it from their couch with a gamepad, then take it with them and browse the web while riding the train, etc, that type of all in one functionality will be irresistible and more cost effective. Look at the history of other such devices, for the same reason that portable music players, low end cameras, portable game players, etc are all dead men walking is because their is little need to buy them anymore when another device can do it all at a "good enough" level. Consoles in my mind are next in line. As time goes on game budgets go up and up, yet the ability of the massess to notice graphical improvements goes down and down. These buyers over time will get lost to other devices that are good enough for them. At some point the line gets crossed where uber games will simply be too expensive to make given the market that will appreciate and buy them, and it will make more financial sense to shift dollars away from developing these types of games to other venues. When that will happen I don't know, but I believe it's coming. Not next gen, but will we really have another console gen in 2021? I kind of doubt it. If anything by then I wouldn't be surprised if Windows is simplified enough where it can serve well enough as a console for the core with simple plug and play boxes. With Kinect and voice recognition I wouldn't be surprsied if in the future you could just plop your tablet on a table, use kinect+voice to control it and launch your apps or games, then sit back on the couch and play with a gamepad on your big tv.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Someone is going to need to package it all up like a console and convince someone to make major titles for it. Someone may try it, but until they do, I'd say it's not that likely.

 

[Nesh]

See, that's why I can't help but think consoles are doomed longer term. You can already get next gen graphics today on pc and joe consumer has no interest in it. Then I see links like this:

http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/20/nvidia-projects-mobile-graphics-to-surpass-xbox/

...where it's predicted that mobile gpu's will surpass the 360s by 2014. So you have todays graphics that are good enough for the masses, and not too long in the future phones and tablets will be able to offer todays console graphics. Given general consumer apathy towards better graphics I still can't help but wonder why people think consoles will last forever when their tablets will eventually offer good enough level of graphics. I'd say face it, the masses just don't care. Even the so called "core" really aren't all that hardcore anymore about graphics, it's just not their primary focus anymore as 7 year old hardware is good enough for them.

Well if GPUs small enough to fit into a mobile can be as powerfull as the power hungry 360 GPU, wouldnt that mean good news for future PC and console GPUs? Thats an indication of improved energy efficiency and low cost mass production. So much more powerfull GPUs would be able to make it to desktop devices afterall without being too big or too power hungry

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Someone is going to need to package it all up like a console and convince someone to make major titles for it. Someone may try it, but until they do, I'd say it's not that likely.

Someone will do it. Apple are more liekly to now that Jobs isn't around to disagree IMO. Apple sell more games than anything else. They can't be blind to the demand. MS will want to differentiate their Windows tablets from iOS and Android. What better way than to have a portable, doable games console that runs the same Live! games you can get on PC and console? And Sony will also want to differentiate and create another compelling hardware platform to promote PSS. Samsung could give it a go even, to add value to their range.

Well if GPUs small enough to fit into a mobile can be as powerfull as the power hungry 360 GPU, wouldnt that mean good news for future PC and console GPUs? Thats an indication of improved energy efficiency and low cost mass production. So much more powerfull GPUs would be able to make it to desktop devices afterall without being too big or too power hungry

Of course, but the question becomes one of convenience versus power. CD's are more 'powerful' than MP3s, but people prefer the MP3 format on the whole. A static games console could be more powerful, but the experience of playing your tablet-console at home, then picking it up and playing on the train, then taking it round a friend's house and plugging it in and playing there, is very compelling. Hardcore gamres might balk at the notion, but I reckon the majority of CE consumers would prefer that to a static console even if the static console offered way better graphics. And if the CE shoppers turn to tablet-consoles in future, the devs will follow, and consoles may well go the route of 8-Track and Arcade cabinets. Although I don't think they will, quite, because I expect the future to be software platforms and you'll have different hardwares running them. The console will evolve to a living-room optimised computer, running Windows or Android or iOS or whatever, exactly the same as the touchies but with the added convenienve of always being connected to the TV and recording your TV programmes etc.

 

[MfA]

What exactly is convenient about using a tablet to run a game in the living room?

With a console : you pick up the controller and start playing.
With the tablet : you pick up the controller and start playing.

The only time it's more convenient is if you move the console around ... but it's an edge case ... and not something I would give up 90+% of the power budget for. Apple may do it, and they might even be successful at it ... but apart from Nintendo it won't impact the console market much IMO. The core gamers aren't going to go away ... and even if there are bigger markets out there they are too juicy to let the PC/Valve have them all.

Maybe if Sony implodes and Microsoft realizes just how fucked up an idea the xbox was ... they first have to genetically engineer the avian pigs though.

 

[BoardBonobo]

It's a fine image to be had, mobile mainstream gaming, but I can't believe the rest of the family would be that happy if you picked up and walked off with the device that provides TV on demand, music and film streaming, and all the other services that consoles provide. To my mind a fixed device and a mobile device that allows you to carry the experience with you will always be a better option.

Of course you could always upgrade your TV to a smarter version but that is more cost.

 

[joker454]

Well if GPUs small enough to fit into a mobile can be as powerfull as the power hungry 360 GPU, wouldnt that mean good news for future PC and console GPUs? Thats an indication of improved energy efficiency and low cost mass production. So much more powerfull GPUs would be able to make it to desktop devices afterall without being too big or too power hungry

Look at pc today. The new gpus are very power efficient and destroy what the consoles currently can do by several orders of magnitude. Does it matter? Do you or others even care? Does it mean people are rushing to play on pc? Nope, few seem to care. So while yes it does mean that a future console gpu could be more substantial will it even matter anymore? I'll argue that the console of the future will be what the pc is today, basiscally a niche gaming device for those few that can see the graphical difference. The rest won't care and will happily game on devices they already own like tablets.

Going further, the console of 2021 I believe will not be a console at all, it will be a pc. Look at Win8 today, strip away the Win7 legacy desktop part and add kinect+voice+gamepad support and you basically have a game console. It's a fully 10 foot device. Yeah there is more software support needed, etc, but that's what I think will eventually happen where the idea of a console is gone, and instead (believe it or not) mid model plug and play pc's running Windows will replace them. No more need to spend money on custom console designs, total waste of time. A future windows pc will be the future Microsoft "consoles" as it were, the line will be totally blured and they will be one and the same. So for sku's you will basically have phone, tablet and pc. Phones have various form factors and designs but are all meant to fit in your pocket and be mobile. Tablets will have verious form factors and designs but are meant to fit in your hands and be mobile. Pc's will be the same with various form factors like desktops, utrabooks and tv boxes but ultimately meant to provide the best experience but not mobile. Three sku's, one sdk, one development environment. Devs and publishers will be thrilled because they are facing mounting/astronomical dev costs and this helps deal with that. Consumers will still get choice, for many their phone ot tablet will be good enough. For those niche few that want a better experience (the equivalent of the pc gamer today) they can go with a tv box with it's better gpu hardware. In that setup a dedicated "console" sku is pointless in my mind. It will also let Microsoft focus on one dev environment that works on all skus, which will also be a boon to everyone.

I think general customer apathy to better graphics is partly leading to this scenario, but so are developer costs which need to be consolidated somehow, and the above in my mind takes care of that. Core gamer dev budgets are growing far faster than the core gamer audience so it just can't continue like that anymore, something has to give. Microsoft to me is in the process of moving in this direction which I feel is brilliant, brilliant enough that I'm bullish on them and bought a stupid amount of Microsoft stock at around $23 because I think people are completely missing what they are doing probably because they are all blinded by Apple stock. Which for investment purposes to me is awesome because by the time the masses figure it all out I'll have already made a fortune on the stock

 

[Nesh]

...

I thought the reasons why companies may not risk making very powerful consoles for next gen are: 1) more costly to make 2) bigger challenge to fit everything into a small box 3) temperatures and energy consumption being more prohibitive. I dont think your argument about people not transitioning from console to the more powerfull PC proves their apathy to graphics. PCs always obliterated consoles in the middle of their lives. This didnt prevent people from buying and playing PS1 until PS2 came. It didnt ptevent them from buying and playing PS2 until the 360 and PS3 came either. And the same thing is repeated now too. They are not apathetic. They just wait for the next console to get the graphical upgrade. If tablets will replace consoles its not now. But yeah maybe someday consoles may not be what we know them today. I imagine devices with similar UI as todays android and iOS mobile devices. In other words they will be like streamlined PCs with simple and easy functions to maintain accessibility and ease of use. I dont see it as a niche market though. PCs are becoming niche because they always lack ease if use, they dont come with standard hardware and need upgrades more often

 

[joker454]

I dont think your argument about people not transitioning from console to the more powerfull PC proves their apathy to graphics. PCs always obliterated consoles in the middle of their lives. This didnt prevent people from buying and playing PS1 until PS2 came. It didnt ptevent them from buying and playing PS2 until the 360 and PS3 came either. And the same thing is repeated now too. They are not apathetic. They just wait for the next console to get the graphical upgrade.

One big difference then and now is that now people don't even see the difference that a pc with a 20x gpu advantage is making on games. People even say that on this very forum! That was not the case in past generations and implies that diminishing returns are fast approaching. That gives the traditionally "lesser platforms" like tablets a chance to step in and become the "good enough" device, especially if it saves people from having to spend $400 on a console that in their mind their future tablet can do just as well.

I look at it this way. Today guys like me scratch their heads at how it's possible people can't see the difference between console games and pc games. In the future the situation will shift and these same console folk will be the ones scartching their heads when tablet people are telling them how the consoles don't look any better than their tablets and how they have no interest in buying them. In other words today people say why would I bother upgrading to pc when they don't look any better than console, and in the future I bet people will be saying why would I bother upgrading to console when it doesn't look any better than my tablet. It'll still take a while to get to that point but I think it's coming.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Which game was designed for a PC with 20x the performance of a console? None. And there probably never will be because there aren't enough people with high end PCs to justify including features just for them. To many console owners the PC is irrelevant as a gaming platform.