The Next-gen Situation discussion *spawn

[whome0]

I think the good user experience will come in a future pc based tv box and via tablets from Microsoft and hopefully Apple.
When you get to a point that a tablet provides good enough graphics, then a competing console even if it offers 10x more gpu grunt than said tablet may not be enough for people to see enough visual difference to where they decide it's worth parting with another $400 to buy one.

To me "hard core" and "Console/PC gaming" means I can use good controllers, decent graphics on big screens, variety of games from small to big adventure games, racing, action, fps games. Someone give me a mouse+keyboard, steering wheel+pedals, gamepad controller, hdmi output with multichannel audio. Today we have PC or PS3/X360 consoles to provide all this and consoles give it (mostly) without a hassle.

To think about the last few months I have mostly been playing with (ps3)gamepad controller and random sessions with Move controller. Someone give me a tablet, gamepad bluetooth, 720p hdmi out with embedded audio and a collection of "real" games other than simple touch screen games. Able to buy such a tablet ecosystem would fill big part of my gaming needs.

Music and video media services are already running in tablets its just a Real Gaming (whatever that means) ecosystem still missing.

Edit: Gaigai or OnLive services don't work in my neighborhood any time soon in reality.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

a) Tablets are the ultimate expression of closed hardware - targeting an iPad for example, the specs are well known, but they also include the display device so a developer can know EXACTLY how the end product will look.

Only on iOS. Every other Tablet ecosystem will be varied hardware. It'll be just as awkward as PC with games having device incompatilbities. this already exists in Android.

c) The development costs are a lot lower - especially attractive to indie devs and startups - and we all know that's where all the innovation happens

Not necessarily. Indie devs targeting XNA or now PSS are looking at negligable entry costs.

d) Price of games is way lower, allowing for impulse purchases, digital sales and year-round sales

That should be addressed with the expansion of the digital ecosystems, but taht's down to the console holders.

f) Console's graphics improvement will inevitably offer diminishing returns and a lower power tablet will be able to achieve similar final impression at fraction of the power (especially considering the ability to carefully calibrate the final image on tablets)

At the moment though, that's a long way off. Tablets will remain 5+ years behind consoles at launch, and then gradually catch up. Maybe. We need to see how much they can get into that fanless space with fabrication hitting certain thermal and power walls. IMO a docking bay adding extra oomph is needed to match the next-gen ballpark, leaving a 'lite' mode for games when the tablet is on the move.

 

[Nesh]

One big difference then and now is that now people don't even see the difference that a pc with a 20x gpu advantage is making on games. People even say that on this very forum! That was not the case in past generations and implies that diminishing returns are fast approaching. That gives the traditionally "lesser platforms" like tablets a chance to step in and become the "good enough" device, especially if it saves people from having to spend $400 on a console that in their mind their future tablet can do just as well.

I look at it this way. Today guys like me scratch their heads at how it's possible people can't see the difference between console games and pc games. In the future the situation will shift and these same console folk will be the ones scartching their heads when tablet people are telling them how the consoles don't look any better than their tablets and how they have no interest in buying them. In other words today people say why would I bother upgrading to pc when they don't look any better than console, and in the future I bet people will be saying why would I bother upgrading to console when it doesn't look any better than my tablet. It'll still take a while to get to that point but I think it's coming.

Thats not a sign of apathy. This is a sign that current PC graphics does not impress them and hence they need to see more impressive visuals to be impressed. And Joe wants to be impressed and he is eager to see whats in store next gen.
There are two assumptions that will lead people to replace their consoles with tablets:
1) Apathy towards top of the line performance
2) Tablets are very very powerful, almost as powerful or as powerful as the available consoles and developers will port their games to both tablets and consoles.

I cant agree with the first, because there will always be people that seek the most immersive experience. And going to the second assumption, the more powerful hardware can fit into a portable device, even more powerful hardware can fit in an immobile device, so consoles will always be much more powerful. I can only partly agree on the second if I consider the possibility that during the mid life of a console, tablets could reach performance of the available consoles and games will be seeing their way to tablets as well so people have no incentive to buy consoles at that point of time.
But there there is another issue which is the input method. The tablets' touch screen has an advantage in managing applications fast and easy. But not games. Certain types of games work with that interface, and this is why they are not marketed as gaming devices. Unless they add a controller. And at this point they will have to consider other control methods too as consoles are evolving in that respect too. They track your body motions, you can use multiple controllers on one device to play with friends or use one camera to track multiple people, WiiU and PS+Vita show interaction using multiple screens in the future.
And then there is also the storage medium. Consoles use external mediums to play games and have large internal drives. To have these in a tablet means a change in design and size. I am not sure when SSD's will be cheap and small enough to be convenient to have all games stored in a tablet, or when mem cards will be big enough to store big games in similar fashion as the Vita. Will developers start making all games digital and have to download 20gb+ titles? That will require very very large storage drives considering that we download already all kinds of stuff in our tablets (apps, work files, videos, music, games??). Every two generations larger and larger storage is needed as games appear to become bigger in size and features. Unless developers choose to make smaller and simpler games which takes us back than forward. And thats not the direction console consumers will want

 

[Arwin]

I love my iPad for a lot of things, but console type gaming is a ways off.

But the main reason why people don't see the difference between console and 20x more powerful GPU versions of the same game, is simply because the games don't use that 20x for anything much generally. Sure, some of us will see some nicer lighting, sharper lines or better framerates here and there, but that's not quite it.

 

[Gerry]

These contradict each other. With fast hardware revisions the developers ends up supporting multiple hardware configurations. Tablets will be worse than PCs in this regard, because on top of different hardware you're going to be targetting iOS, Android and Win 8 as a developer.

Apple is the de facto standard right now. But if Android or Windows 8 sees any traction, the problem will be worse than PC because you need to support three different software stacks as well as target multiple hardware configurations.

Even if we imagine a world where Apple reigns supreme and all you have to do is target iOS, you still have the problem of what hardware to target. Even now, after the third revision of the iPad, if you were to create a high-end iOS game, what do you target? The first iteration of the iPad where you have highest user-base or iPad (3) where you're dealing with higher specs and higher resolution? That's only going to get worse as the annual release schedule for iPad continues.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Even if we imagine a world where Apple reigns supreme and all you have to do is target iOS, you still have the problem of what hardware to target. Even now, after the third revision of the iPad, if you were to create a high-end iOS game, what do you target? The first iteration of the iPad where you have highest user-base or iPad (3) where you're dealing with higher specs and higher resolution? That's only going to get worse as the annual release schedule for iPad continues.

This is why tablets will never replace fixed console HW imho. There will come a point where devs start to think about producing ps3/xb360 quality software on tablet, and then they realise that the costs to meet each and every possible HW configuration with their game far outweigh the costs of simply dev'ing for ps3/xb360.

Imho the iOS software development goldrush is a bubble and will eventually burst, and when it does, everyone will realise that there will always be a place for fixed console HW.

At the very end of the day, you can point to total tablet sales all you want and make meaningless comparisons to consoles. But the majority of tablets are bought for PC-lite functionality in the first place, i.e. email, web browsing, multimedia consumption (hence, why games are the highest selling apps, as most of the required user functionality comes outta the box already).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This is why tablets will never replace fixed console HW imho. There will come a point where devs start to think about producing ps3/xb360 quality software on tablet, and then they realise that the costs to meet each and every possible HW configuration with their game far outweigh the costs of simply dev'ing for ps3/xb360.

Imho the iOS software development goldrush is a bubble and will eventually burst, and when it does, everyone will realise that there will always be a place for fixed console HW.

If things stay the same, I'd agree. But gaming isn't so much about the bestest possible graphics, but entertaining experiences, and if tablets can offer a suitably entertaining experience then they'll draw customers. COD will attract its 20 million core gamers to new consoles. Of the other 100 million HD console gamers though, how many will be happy to play really crisp RTSes, novelty games, simple platformers, simpler looking shooters, etc.? In that respect tablets could win over gamers without being the ultimate gaming rigs, if the experience evolves suitably. I for one would rather play a lesser looking version of a good RTS like XCOM or a god game like Populous on a tablet. A shooter only needs look 'okay' enough to pass the time. I, like many, am happy to play the crusty 2005 visuals of Uncharted or Starhawk over the gorgeous visuals of BF3 or Crysis on the baddest PCs going.

It's that which I think will cause tablets to eat into console share. Heck, we even see it now with Indie titles using programmer art and still being successful! There'll be a market for blockbuster visuals, but the main job of entertainment can get by with good experiences over pretty graphics, at which the tablets are at no disadvantage (and even potentially an advantage, if you combine a portable touch-based game like a strategy metagame with a docked proper FPS experience). And if the console market shrinks too much, devs will have to target the larger markets, which only secures the consoles future. They'll have to be incorporated into the software infrastructure of apps and content and portability, making them PCs.

 

[wco81]

The thing you have to watch out for is the game pricing model.

Tablets drive down prices, though you can say game prices on tablets are to some extent subsidized by development on other platforms.

But will game pricing and development on consoles be ultimately affected by cheap mobile games pricing? If nothing else, as consoles move to digital distribution, they may be forced to adapt. Lower prices for digital downloads in exchange for the elimination of secondary markets of at least those games distributed digitally (not to mention no manufacturing or inventory costs, no need to manage shelf space, etc.).

 

[Arwin]

Sure, and we've seen like areas where PCs dominated gaming, but they haven't been vast and they've had some serious piracy issues as well. You could argue that this won't be an issue today on tablets, but that's uncertain. In the mean-time, the hardware is changing too fast - the first iPad is from 2010. The current iPad, two years later, is vastly differently specced. Android devices are worse, all over the place with performance and resolution. I'm sure this will even out, and I am also sure that gaming will be more successful than PC gaming has ever been, no doubt about it. People may well forget for a while why consoles became popular. But I have a strong feeling this thing will return, and in the meantime the consoles have every opportunity to make sure they can share in the fun.

There's no predicting the future and massive paradigm shifts are always happening, but I see a lot of people who have bought an iPad 1 or 2, that I don't see buying a new one anytime soon ..

 

[Prophecy2k]

If things stay the same, I'd agree. But gaming isn't so much about the bestest possible graphics, but entertaining experiences, and if tablets can offer a suitably entertaining experience then they'll draw customers. COD will attract its 20 million core gamers to new consoles. Of the other 100 million HD console gamers though, how many will be happy to play really crisp RTSes, novelty games, simple platformers, simpler looking shooters, etc.? In that respect tablets could win over gamers without being the ultimate gaming rigs, if the experience evolves suitably. I for one would rather play a lesser looking version of a good RTS like XCOM or a god game like Populous on a tablet. A shooter only needs look 'okay' enough to pass the time. I, like many, am happy to play the crusty 2005 visuals of Uncharted or Starhawk over the gorgeous visuals of BF3 or Crysis on the baddest PCs going.

Things have been changing since the inception of consoles. Consoles yet still remain.

In relation to your point about gaming not being about the graphics anymore. I disagree. It's always been about the combination of graphics and gameplay. Consoles have always offered the best compromise of visuals, control interface, convenience and price between the highest end gaming on a $2000 PC gaming rig, and stuff like playing snake on a mobile phone.

Tablets and smart phones have merely carved out a nice little place in the market to steal away both handheld console and the old sh!tty mobile phone gaming. Their entire purpose as gaming devices is for passing time. Consoles on the other hand are not. People simply won't look forward to a Saturday evening when they can come home with a group of friends and play games like angry birds, infinity blade or cut the rope on an iPad hooked up to their living room TV. No. They'll play those games on the toilet break in between a COD session on their 360 with their friends.

Tablets still have a serious interface problem that renders them almost useless for the majority of popular console games. Yes, a bluetooth controller can be made compatible, but without selling one with every iPad/Android Pad/Win8 Pad, how can a developer develop a game with such a controller in mind. Of course for a traditional controller, the onscreen overlay abomination can be used, but what about stuff like motion control/kinect functionality that is likely to be a critical differentiator with next-gen console boxes?

Consoles will still provide a much better platform for high end gaming than tablets, and there's no data to suggest that core games consumer interest would wane in that regard. Those 67 + 62 million PS3 & Xbox 360 users who didn't care for the Wii as being a "good enough" gaming platform, also won't easily see tablet platforms as "good enough", especially given that even now as tablet HW is almost approaching PS360 levels there is next to no software written to take advantage of it (the average quality of tablet games is being rapidly outpaced by the HW itself, rendering the extra processing power all but redundant).

The point is that you'll never see games with the fidelity, depth and production values of Uncharted and Starhawk, BF3 nor Crysis on a tablet. Mainly because there's nothing to suggest to gaming companies, who market that software at PS360 gamers, would sell anywhere near the numbers they do on consoles if they developed such games on tablets. You can point to titles like Infinity blade all you like, but including that game, there are no games available nor annouced to be released in the near future that contain even half the content, depth nor product quality/fidelity of console games on tablet devices. If the games aren't migrating over, the consumers won't. And if the consumers don't migrate the developers won't.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The thing you have to watch out for is the game pricing model.

Tablets drive down prices, though you can say game prices on tablets are to some extent subsidized by development on other platforms.

Tablets drive down prices through competition between bedroom coders. AAA titles have no such competition, and are pushing prices up. People will pay for higher quality as in all businesses. It may be less people, and it may take a while for publishers to stretch people's expectations, but that's the issue of balancing price versus demand to maximise profit, and budgeting the quality accordingly. I fully expect £20 games to be present on tablets in some years; you can already spend as much on some apps.

But will game pricing and development on consoles be ultimately affected by cheap mobile games pricing?

That's definitely a concern. If tablets become the lowest common denominator for ports, the consoles lose their power advantages.

Things have been changing since the inception of consoles. Consoles yet still remain.

They come in ebbs and flows. Consoles have moved away from platformers towards shooters. They won't remain their forever, and the tablets may provide the next favourite genres, or even be the birthplace of the next favourite genres.

In relation to your point about gaming not being about the graphics anymore.

I didn't use such an absolute term. Historically, the difference between one gen and the next ws substantial, such that the upgrade was necessary to enable the improved games. This gen provides a performance level at which many games are possible. There will always be a market for a more realistic experience, of course. But for many, Warhawk graphics on their tablet in a very compelling game will be of more worth than COD8 with photorealism, in the same way Wii was enough with it's well below par visuals. It's all about the package deal, and the importance of graphics is diminishing due to diminishing returns and changing habits. Many of the games I have played this gen have been simple download titles, easily doable on the tablets only not available on the tablets because the library isn't there yet. When PixelJunk release Monsters on Tablets, or someone else introduces that sort of quality, then I'll probably find myself playing less download titles on console and more on tablet.

Their entire purpose as gaming devices is for passing time. Consoles on the other hand are not. People simply won't look forward to a Saturday evening when they can come home with a group of friends and play games like angry birds, infinity blade or cut the rope on an iPad hooked up to their living room TV.

But when the tablets play FIFA and COD and other games, then they'll serve that purpose. It's pretty ludicrous to think Angry Birds is the pinnacle of mobile gaming and we'll never see better than that. That's like looking at the ZX Spectrum and claiming gaming will never prove popular because all it can do is clumsy 2D platformers. Of $50 million will never be spent creating computer games. Where's the sense in thinking tablet games will never be more than $2 throwaway titles when that industry is only 2 years old!!

Yes, a bluetooth controller can be made compatible, but without selling one with every iPad/Android Pad/Win8 Pad, how can a developer develop a game with such a controller in mind.

Sell it with the game. £30 in GAME gets you FIFA iOS with the official controller, and EA know you have that controller for all their upcoming titles. Or notably, MS and Sony include it as a feature and pressurise Apple to follow suit. Or Apple release an iBox with a controller as standard that works with iPads. There are loads of options to introduce hardware.

What about stuff like motion control/kinect functionality that is likely to be a critical differentiator with next-gen console boxes?

I expect Sony and MS to push that with their tablet systems. There are already AR games and camera based experiences. Hell, Move could be done on tablet now using inbuilt front-facing cameras!

The point is that you'll never see games with the fidelity, depth and production values of Uncharted and Starhawk, BF3 nor Crysis on a tablet.

There's a whole thread on this (Apple console). There are top-tier devs targetting iOS. Never say never, because there's an untapped install base of 100+ million consumers who haven't got AA games to play yet. Again, tablets ahve been around 2 years. You can't expect Valve and Epic and EA and Ubisoft to have learnt the market perfectly and rolled out AAA titles within 2 years of the market existing. How long did it take computer games to be turned into dedicated consoles with dedicated software companies supporting them?

 

[tuna]

Sell it with the game. £30 in GAME gets you FIFA iOS with the official controller, and EA know you have that controller for all their upcoming titles. Or notably, MS and Sony include it as a feature and pressurise Apple to follow suit. Or Apple release an iBox with a controller as standard that works with iPads. There are loads of options to introduce hardware.

A PS3 controller + launch day FIFA cost near £100. Why would EA or whoever sell it for less?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

A PS3 controller + launch day FIFA cost near £100. Why would EA or whoever sell it for less?

I'm not going to be drawn into a pricing argument for a hypothetical scenario! Whatever they sell it for, if the gaming companies want controllers commonplace on tablets, it'll happen. They can leverage key franchises to bring that about. There are already controllers and there's built-in support for Android; it's just a case of popularising them for games where they are beneficial in the future of tablets-connected-to-TVs-as-gaming-devices.

 

[Nesh]

I'm not going to be drawn into a pricing argument for a hypothetical scenario! Whatever they sell it for, if the gaming companies want controllers commonplace on tablets, it'll happen. They can leverage key franchises to bring that about. There are already controllers and there's built-in support for Android; it's just a case of popularising them for games where they are beneficial in the future of tablets-connected-to-TVs-as-gaming-devices.

The way I see it, when consumers would be playing on tablets instead of consoles it wouldnt be because it serves them better, but because the developers will be trying to make the tablets more attractive to the consumers by deliberately offering more content and options on tablets to reduce costs and risks associated to the console market A form of market manipulation if you like.

 

[wco81]

Actually, from trying out FIFA on the Vita with the back and front touch options, I think FIFA could be done well with a multitouch UI, offering capabilities that traditional controllers can't such as the ability to kick the ball into space with more precision than the traditional controllers.

I hope game designers look for ways to innovate with touch UI, perhaps develop new paradigms, rather than trying to replicate a gamepad on-screen.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I dare say that'll be part of it. Note when I suggest gaming on tablets will be better, I don't mean better gaming as we understand it. Clearly nothing is going to beat bleeding-edge, fixed-hardware crammed into a cheap box with dedicated controllers and devs pushing the hardware to its limits. However, (dockable) tablets have the option to have games portable and useable anywhere, and be highly socialised such as with bump near-field communication. Things like JRPGs could be ideal on tablets, with player trading and coop and who knows what else. The tablet will be carried on the train to work where it's used, and on the way it can collect social interactions and peopley stuff. FPSes would take a back seat, but they shouldn't be expected to be the prime game type. Tastes change. So when Joe Consumer is looking at an entertainment device to buy, the choice between a tablet and console will be much tougher than it is now as the tablet will have caught up a lot in the game experience while the console cannot offer the tablet experience. Throw in the notion of the broad-device software ecosystem, and the console as we know it hasn't much purpose.

 

[wco81]

The other thing to keep in mind is that over the last two generations, people continue to game well into adulthood (and parenthood). The generations which grew up with gaming continued to game after gaining work and family responsibilities.

While many of these are core gamers, consoles may not have a firm hold on these consumers. Family budgets may not allow for both consoles and tablets or for dedicated devices for one member of the family.

Tablets fit in better with the needs of the whole family than consoles.

 

[joker454]

As far as I know all Win8 tablets support gamepads from the get go, so all games for them should be able to support touch and gamepad from day 1. I don't know if they support the wireless 360 gamepads....but if they do then Win8 tablets will instantly have a large gamepad ready base to tap into.

 

[AlphaWolf]

PC's support gamepads too, and yet half the time PC games don't come with gamepad support. If the gamepad doesn't come in the box with the tablet, they won't support it. MS or whoever will have to come out and actually push/support a gamepad ecosystem if they don't include the controller with the tablets.

 

[joker454]

PC's support gamepads too, and yet half the time PC games don't come with gamepad support. If the gamepad doesn't come in the box with the tablet, they won't support it. MS or whoever will have to come out and actually push/support a gamepad ecosystem if they don't include the controller with the tablets.

That's mostly just for games designed with sitting at a desk with a keyboard in mouse in mind. That doesn't apply to anyone targetting console and/or tablet, which will support gamepad or virtual gamepad as needed.