While the future of process nodes may dictate such, 45nm and 32SPEs is an aweful small leap from where we are now. 32nm may pose too many issues (namely with 22nm and 16nm process shrinks for cost saving) but 45nm may not offer enough power. Maybe Sony will look at 2x 45nm Cells (like Intel with their first dualcores?) with a 32nm die shrink that brings them more natively close later on...
That's one of the reasons why they are touting the 10-year life of PS3. The issues of slower and harder process shrink and a power envelope that is nearing a dangerous point for a CE product. So you can't expect a 10x or more leap anymore for the 5-year cycle. What's possible for the client side is more gradual, scalable updates for an existing format. If you want to maintain the growth pace in terms of entertainment experience, you have to turn your eye to the server side where you can stack up thousands of computers with a smaller latency.
And this is why Kutaragi isn't there anymore. There are so many business/market hurdles to the above plan it would be horrible--worse than the PS3 gameplan. Which is pretty bad considering where Sony was and where Sony is.
I can elaborate if you wish...
As an aside, Crysis may only require SM2.0, Crytek has said it "scales back 2 years". Good luck getting your Radeon 9700 and P4 2.8GHz with 512MB memory running Crysis. I think any PlayStation owner in a similar position would pull their hair out when MGS5, GT6, or whatever was put into this situation.
Of course everyone suspects it's why Kutaragi is gone. But the fact is the die is cast and we have the PS3 hardware as it is, left people have to carry on his game to some extent while Hirai handles software license business to recoup the investment.
The intent of this plan is, IMO, to get out of the risk that visits console makers every 5 years. When Microsoft entered the game 7 years ago, it could be easily expected that it'd get harder or impossible to be unharmed by the loss-leading practice of the game console market against the deepest pocket in the world, regardless of winning the market share. Cell and the PS3 hardware format is the last and biggest investment by SCE as the answer to this problem. The plan itself is legitimate and Cell could meet a deadline, but other issues such as software management failures for games, OS and SDK, delays due to Blu-ray and HDMI 1.3, and the economically difficult in-house semiconductor process development after 65nm, and the launch day confusion are more related to why Kutaragi had to leave I think.
How Nintendo coped with it is as you know by using an updated previous-gen hardware with a new controller as a means for product differentiation, and it's very successful for now. PS3 has Cell and Blu-ray for product differentiation, but obviously they both add to the cost and take time to exploit unlike Nintendo's solution. You don't want to compromise on computing processing power either. The only way that makes it possible without being like Nintendo is to sell goods for their fair prices. Or in Mac's or VAIO's case, more than their raw hardware prices with added brand/service value. Sony sells a $200 DVD player and a $2000 DVD player, you can watch the same content on them but in a different way. Why not do it for computer games, why does everyone have to buy a new-gen console at the same time? They know consoles get price drops and PS2 is still growing in emerging markets.
The current PS3 doesn't have enough RAM for PC-like activity. The firmware gets many AV-related updates recently, it's a way to make it a good media player (or a recorder with a tuner), not a computer per se. To run Linux smoothly side-by-side with a realtime OS (Game OS) on a hypervisor like the Toshiba Cell Reference Set, it needs 1GB XDR RAM like the
Cell Computing Board. But these added computer capability or superior AV capability sell only to a very small number of enthusiasts even though they can sell this version of PS3 for $1000. The only way to make more people swallow a higher price and establish the game business at the same time is the capability to run a game better.
As for "Crysis scales back 2 years" and game development for a new faster PS3 format, let's see archangelmorph's counterarguments.
- no devs would support it
- it would seggragate the PS3 demeographic and allow devs to provide user experiences which differ from machine to machine
- scalable hardware adds a VERY unwelcome amount of extra work to developers which we really don't need/ aren't interested in..
Basically my current forecast is based on this comment by Kawanishi (the current CTO at SCEI) that says they don't exclude the possibility of a new PS3 that can run the same game better.
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=970846&postcount=23
I think there'll be developers who support it, even though they are not first/second-party. PC developers are doing it already, and you know they are complaining that Cell is harder to program and they have difficulties to port 360 games to it, not to mention porting PC games to PS3. PS3.5 makes them easier, you can even port Crysis and whatever to it without losing fidelity to the original PC game. Why Crysis scales back only 2 years is they can't optimize it to a lower-spec PC hardware unlike a fixed console spec. As for segregation, why do they care when Madden runs 30fps on some PS3 and 60fps on the other, as do today on PS3 and 360? OTOH the existence of PS3.5 makes the life of PS3 longer and more competitive. You don't have to argue a 1080p screenshot with AA as a bullshot anymore! As for scalable hardware, as long as they are in the same linear spec hierarchy and don't have more than 3 models, I think it won't be a problem. Recently there was an encouraging comment from one renowned developer - John Carmack. He praised Mac for its uniformity when he was promoting the new engine tech.
To recap my forecast, it'll be like this. In 2010 a PS3 with 32 SPEs and 2GB XDR2 RAM will launch for a price you feel a bit expensive. This time it'll be released before or at the same time Microsoft and Nintendo release their next consoles. PS3 games will begin to support it by running it at higher frame rate, higher AA, more objects, or other bonus as you see in PC games options on different spec PCs. Then, a year or 2 later with enough PS3.5 on the market, there may be a new game profile that requires PS3.5 and doesn't run on PS3 - this is a conservative form of PS4. If the future network infrastructure allows, a new server-side entertainment form with a PS3 as a thin client may appear. Which one is called as PS4 depends on market situation at that time, but they are not mutually exclusive. Also a PS3.5-only game may be introduced at the same time as PS3.5 release to stimulate demand. Anyway my bet is PS4 = PS3.5 + massive Cell server farms.