The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]

[Anarchist4000]

The big jump was that China deal for server CPUs. Big chunk of cash and recurring royalties on future sales. Console wins, including a high end console if it's using Vega, will bring in more cash than expected. Partners wouldn't stake their life on AMD if they felt they were going to implode in a year or two either. Bottom line they're becoming profitable and undervalued with lessening risk of implosion.

 

[Razor1]

The big jump was that China deal for server CPUs. Big chunk of cash and recurring royalties on future sales. Console wins, including a high end console if it's using Vega, will bring in more cash than expected. Partners wouldn't stake their life on AMD if they felt they were going to implode in a year or two either. Bottom line they're becoming profitable and undervalued with lessening risk of implosion.

No that is not what is happening, you are talking it quite ephemerally that the contract is one sided, AMD's partners, will have very good, indemnity and ipso facto clauses, which they will retain certain rights from AMD if anything happens to AMD.

The bottom line, the risk is still there, till we know the outcome of Zen and Kaby Lake, if Kaby Lake keeps Zen at bay as of what is going on right now in the CPU market with AMD and Intel. AMD will not be able to keep up with getting enough cash to sustain themselves once they have start paying back loans. The upside is if AMD is able to keep up with Zen with Kaby Lake, they will return to profitability. Added to this with a solid gain of marketshare from Polaris they should be in a good position to move forward (although Polaris won't return them to profitability by itself)

Yes they were undervalued but the risk has not been mitigated as of yet. The only way risk will be mitigated is if Zen is competitive enough and the RTG can get enough market share to sustain them if Zen is or isn't competitive.

 

[itsmydamnation]

what does kaby lake have to do with anything, Zen is server targeted for early 17 with upto 32 cores and that is competing with Broadwell.

 

[Tim]

what does kaby lake have to do with anything, Zen is server targeted for early 17 with upto 32 cores and that is competing with Broadwell.

Zen based APU, Bristol Ridge is definitely competing with Kaby Lake, Zen cores are not exclusive to servers.


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[itsmydamnation]

Zen based APU, Bristol Ridge is definitely competing with Kaby Lake, Zen cores are not exclusive to servers.


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Yes but its far less important ( look at desktop/laptop shrinking YOY sales) and AMD's gpu can offset any CPU deficit if one indeed exists. Considering what AMD have done with bulk 28nm CON core the sub 35watt should be very competitive. The likely hardest area to compete will be desktop quad core but neither the laptop or desktop market is going to be what makes or breaks Zen.

 

[Alexko]

Yes but its far less important ( look at desktop/laptop shrinking YOY sales) and AMD's gpu can offset any CPU deficit if one indeed exists. Considering what AMD have done with bulk 28nm CON core the sub 35watt should be very competitive. The likely hardest area to compete will be desktop quad core but neither the laptop or desktop market is going to be what makes or breaks Zen.

I disagree. Most PCs sold today are laptops, and I believe that's where the margins are (servers aside). It's vital that Zen be well-suited to this market.

 

[itsmydamnation]

There has been sometihng like 4Q's in a row with sometihng like -10% yoy growth for PC sales according to IDC, PC's =

PCs include Desktops, Portables, Ultraslim Notebooks, Chromebooks, and Workstations and do not include handhelds, x86 Servers and Tablets

If PC was the most important to AMD then the APU would be being released first, not the server part. Also look at it this way, an 8 core Zen is somewhere under 200 sq. A quad core with 12-16 CU's isn't going to be any smaller, Which one is going the have better margin......

 

[Kaotik]

There has been sometihng like 4Q's in a row with sometihng like -10% yoy growth for PC sales according to IDC, PC's =
If PC was the most important to AMD then the APU would be being released first, not the server part. Also look at it this way, an 8 core Zen is somewhere under 200 sq. A quad core with 12-16 CU's isn't going to be any smaller, Which one is going the have better margin......

They're releasing desktop CPU first. Designing APU first would have taken probably them longer to get product to market.

 

[Razor1]

what does kaby lake have to do with anything, Zen is server targeted for early 17 with upto 32 cores and that is competing with Broadwell.

Initially yes, but that isn't where AMD is going to be making enough money to get out of their hole, they need to have a successful desktop counterpart that can grab marketshare away from Intel while keeping margins high in the consumer end.

The server side is much harder to gain marketshare than it would be to do it on the consumer market.

 

[nutball]

Which one is going the have better margin......

Which one is going to have the longer validation time?

 

[sir doris]

There has been sometihng like 4Q's in a row with sometihng like -10% yoy growth for PC sales according to IDC, PC's =


If PC was the most important to AMD then the APU would be being released first, not the server part. Also look at it this way, an 8 core Zen is somewhere under 200 sq. A quad core with 12-16 CU's isn't going to be any smaller, Which one is going the have better margin......

On the E3 Gamers Show Lisa Su said Enthusiasts and Gamers will get the first Xen cores:

(1:09 after Serious Sam)

 

[Deleted member 13524]

There has been sometihng like 4Q's in a row with sometihng like -10% yoy growth for PC sales according to IDC, PC's =

The actual overall "shrink" should be much smaller because laptops on the business side are just being gradually replaced by 2-in-1s with Windows 10, which AFAIK still count as "tablets".

In the end, what this actually means is that if they want a relevant piece of the PC CPU market, AMD will need to release Zen APUs with a 5 to 15W TDP.

 

[Razor1]

The actual overall "shrink" should be much smaller because laptops on the business side are just being gradually replaced by 2-in-1s with Windows 10, which AFAIK still count as "tablets".

In the end, what this actually means is that if they want a relevant piece of the PC CPU market, AMD will need to release Zen APUs with a 5 to 15W TDP.

When I was consulting around 7 years go, not a single company I was consulting for used AMD laptops or PC's, for this very reason.

 

[Grall]

Saw on a hardware news site a blurb about a post on Digitimes about a USB 3.1 signal integrity issue with Zen's chipset:

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160621PD205.html

Nothing sky-is-falling kind of thing, but still, if true it'll make mobos a little more expensive to fix the issue, which isn't what AMD would like.

 

[itsmydamnation]

On the E3 Gamers Show Lisa Su said Enthusiasts and Gamers will get the first Xen cores:

(1:09 after Serious Sam)

That doesn't go against what i have said at all, no one(almost) is interested in 8 core server parts. I think its a pretty fair assumption that bring up of multi socket multi chip per socket solution will be a fair bit longer then a single chip consumer product getting Zen to revenue ASAP is a good thing.

The actual overall "shrink" should be much smaller because laptops on the business side are just being gradually replaced by 2-in-1s with Windows 10, which AFAIK still count as "tablets".

In the end, what this actually means is that if they want a relevant piece of the PC CPU market, AMD will need to release Zen APUs with a 5 to 15W TDP.

Yes i know but nowhere near at the rate they used to replace desktops and laptops pre about sandy/ivy bridge time frame. if we look at the numbers for detachables they are around ~4 million a quarter PC's, laptops etc are ~60 million,

detachable have grown from somewhere around 1mill a Q to 4 million a Q ( 3million growth ) and PC's have fallen by 8 million a Q in the same period. Which to me backup entirely what i was saying the Consumer below 35 watt isn't going to make or break Zen, just the same way it didn't make or break bulldozer. There is no doubt if they do well in that market its a good thing but if they do well in that market but fail in Server they aren't going to be in a good position.

sry if im not coherent right now ( i think i am) i have a serious case of man flu...........

 

[lanek]

Saw on a hardware news site a blurb about a post on Digitimes about a USB 3.1 signal integrity issue with Zen's chipset:

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160621PD205.html

Nothing sky-is-falling kind of thing, but still, if true it'll make mobos a little more expensive to fix the issue, which isn't what AMD would like.

Well ...

- Zen cores engineering is progressing well ( from the article ).
- USB 3.1 chispet from Asmedia could seems got problem ( no motherboard for it are in production anyway right now )

- Or Asmedia correct it ( if there's a problem ), they should do it anyway, or it could cost moneny to the motherboard integrator of this chipset ( .. who is yet not in production yet anyway )..

Look like someone dont like Asmedia,..

If this news have come 2weeks before the release of this chipset, i will say ok, but isnt a bit early for this ?

 

[lanek]

That doesn't go against what i have said at all, no one(almost) is interested in 8 core server parts. I think its a pretty fair assumption that bring up of multi socket multi chip per socket solution will be a fair bit longer then a single chip consumer product getting Zen to revenue ASAP is a good thing.


........

I think it was pretty clear with the different announces by AMD, that they want, will try to gain marketshare on both profesional /server etc and consumer market share .. They will try to atttack both at the same time.. not one or the other.. the timing for or the other have no real importance.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

That doesn't go against what i have said at all, no one(almost) is interested in 8 core server parts. I think its a pretty fair assumption that bring up of multi socket multi chip per socket solution will be a fair bit longer then a single chip consumer product getting Zen to revenue ASAP is a good thing.

It's an enthusiast gaming part. I think I get what you're saying, 8 core parts are typically meant for servers because games won't really take advantage of them. In the past I certainly would have agreed with you. I went on at some length in one of the Intel forum threads about how relatively useless 6+ core Intel CPUs were for general PC use and especially for gaming 2-3 years ago. Yes, there were exceptions to the rule, of course, like rendering programs.

However, with both consoles featuring 8 cores, games capable of taking advantage of more cores will continue to grow (on the AAA games side at least). And with Microsoft pushing to make Xbox just a Windows console experience (Windows underneath with a console interface and limitations), porting console code to PC should get easier and easier. As well all the major multiplatform engine development environments (UE, Unity, etc.) should have fairly robust support for more than 4 cores by the time Zen hits the market. Most application software will happily ignore more than 1 or 2 cores, however, so it won't help them with general purpose computing (hence targeting enthusiast gaming).

It's all going to come down to how good Zen actually is and how well AMD execute on it (or if you're pessimistic about AMD, how badly they'll execute on it).

Regards,
SB

 

[itsmydamnation]

It's an enthusiast gaming part. I think I get what you're saying, 8 core parts are typically meant for servers because games won't really take advantage of them. In the past I certainly would have agreed with you. I went on at some length in one of the Intel forum threads about how relatively useless 6+ core Intel CPUs were for general PC use and especially for gaming 2-3 years ago. Yes, there were exceptions to the rule, of course, like rendering programs.

Im not saying that at all, the 8 core part is the server part, just like with bulldozer. But the server parts are MCM/interposer/etc of that Chip with a new interconnect technology (GMI instead of HT) and a new cache system. In bulldozer (slide 15) the L3 was on off to the side of the system request Queue just a victim cache, it looks like in Zen AMD will have a solution more like intel or jaguar where the last level cache is directly "in the path" using god knows what method for coherency. If my guess is right and there is only one server chip then the 32 core part is 4 chips across GMI then GMI across sockets! System level things like that take a very long time to test/verify compared to just the sinlge chip 8 core part and this would be AMD's first chip/solution with all that new technology. On a side note i saw a presentation on verification by AMD where the presenter said that in the first second a chip gets powered on for the first time it has already run for more cycles then all the cycles of simulation and testing done before it so when the chip comes back there is still a lot of verification to do.

All i am saying is releasing the consumer 8 core part to compete in and around HEDT platform is a time to market thing. If they could have the server parts ready at the same time im sure they would release them at the same time.



edit: sharing is caring :

 

[pharma]

HiAlgo acquisition brings new capabilities to Radeon Software to maximize gaming experience per dollar for PC users SUNNYVALE, Calif. 6/29/2016

AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) today announced the acquisition of software company HiAlgo Inc., a developer of unique PC gaming technologies designed to help Radeon™ RX Series GPUs transform gaming experience, increase GPU efficiency and improve the overall consistency of gaming experiences. The acquisition lays the groundwork for future gaming innovation in Radeon Software that will benefit owners of Radeon™ RX Series GPUs.

About Hialgo
HiAlgo apps are plugins that help hardware perform better. In 3D games, they re-allocate computer resources by dynamically changing frame rate and picture resolution.

BOOST is a utility that makes the gameplay smoother, with smaller lag. During fast-paced moments of the game, BOOST lowers the rendering resolution, causing the framerate and responsiveness to noticeably increase - effectively increasing the power of your GPU.

CHILL is a smart framerate limiter that prevents CPU and GPU overheating (and subsequent performance loss), while not detracting from the gaming experience. As a bonus, CHILL also saves power and increases the battery gaming time on laptops.

SWITCH is a utility that allows you changing the game resolution from 100% to 50% with a single push of a button. This instantly gives you a significant framerate increase -- which helps you a lot during highly dynamic battles.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1240641

Cautionary Statement
This press release contains forward-looking statements concerning Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (“AMD”) which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are commonly identified by words such as "would," "may," "expects," "believes," "plans," "intends," "projects" and other terms with similar meaning. Investors are cautioned that the forward-looking statements in this press release are based on current beliefs, assumptions and expectations, speak only as of the date of this document and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. Material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations include, without limitation, the following:the possibility that Intel Corporation’s dominance of the microprocessor market and its aggressive business practices may limit AMD’s ability to compete effectively; AMD relies on GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GF) to manufacture all of its microprocessor and APU products and a certain portion of its GPU products, with limited exceptions. If GF is not able to satisfy AMD’s manufacturing requirements, its business could be adversely impacted; AMD relies on third parties to manufacture its products, and if they are unable to do so on a timely basis in sufficient quantities and using competitive technologies, AMD’s business could be materially adversely affected; failure to achieve expected manufacturing yields for AMD’s products could negatively impact its financial results; the success of AMD’s business is dependent upon its ability to introduce products on a timely basis with features and performance levels that provide value to its customers while supporting and coinciding with significant industry transitions; if AMD cannot generate sufficient revenue and operating cash flow or obtain external financing, it may face a cash shortfall and be unable to make all of its planned investments in research and development or other strategic investments; the loss of a significant customer may have a material adverse effect on AMD; global economic uncertainty may adversely impact AMD’s business and operating results; AMD may not be able to generate sufficient cash to service its debt obligations or meet its working capital requirements; AMD has a substantial amount of indebtedness which could adversely affect its financial position and prevent it from implementing its strategy or fulfilling its contractual obligations; the agreements governing AMD’s notes and the secured revolving line of credit (Secured Revolving Line of Credit) impose restrictions on AMD that may adversely affect its ability to operate its business; the completion and impact of its restructuring plan announced in October 2015, its transformation initiatives and any future restructuring actions could adversely affect it; the markets in which AMD’s products are sold are highly competitive; uncertainties involving the ordering and shipment of AMD’s products could materially adversely affect it; AMD’s receipt of revenue from its semi-custom SoC products is dependent upon its technology being designed into third-party products and the success of those products; the demand for AMD’s products depends in part on the market conditions in the industries into which they are sold. Fluctuations in demand for AMD’s products or a market decline in any of these industries could have a material adverse effect on its results of operations; AMD’s ability to design and introduce new products in a timely manner is dependent upon third-party intellectual property; AMD depends on third-party companies for the design, manufacture and supply of motherboards, software and other computer platform components to support its business; if AMD loses Microsoft Corporation’s support for its products or other software vendors do not design and develop software to run on AMD’s products, its ability to sell its products could be materially adversely affected; and AMD’s reliance on third-party distributors and AIB partners subjects it to certain risks. Investors are urged to review in detail the risks and uncertainties in AMD’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to AMD’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 26, 2016.

http://www.amd.com/en-us/press-releases/Pages/amd-acquires-software-2016jun29.aspx