The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]

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I doubt AMD gets anything extra per GPU, because selling them for more money without updating MSRPs would be rather disingenuous. Besides, it would increase prices everywhere, unless partners and retailers were willing to eat the cost—but why would they be?—and that hasn't happened. You can still find 290(X)s at MSRP or even (sometimes well) below in some countries.

Still, AMD is selling more GPUs, so they're making more money than they normally would.
AMD do not sell cards themselves, it's the partners who sell the cards and it is natural for them to charge over MSRP whenever they feel like it so i see no reason why AMD cannot sell chips to partners at a mark-up since they will be selling them at a mark-up to retail.

If AMD are selling them at the same price as launch then heads need to roll.
 

The unfortunate result of that is the new EVGA GTX 780 ACX sitting in my new gaming rig next to my i5 4670k instead of a 290x. The board partners should be committed to a "highest list price" regardless of demand to protect the Radeon brand. I understand the end result of this would be a secondary market on Ebay or elsewhere where prices could go wherever but AMD customers (like me) are being turned into Nvidia customers.

A friend of mine with a 280x wants to Xfire but cannot because the price of the second card is way too high now from where he bought it. Possible solution being discussed? Sell AMD card on Ebay and buy Nvidia.
 
The unfortunate result of that is the new EVGA GTX 780 ACX sitting in my new gaming rig next to my i5 4670k instead of a 290x. The board partners should be committed to a "highest list price" regardless of demand to protect the Radeon brand. I understand the end result of this would be a secondary market on Ebay or elsewhere where prices could go wherever but AMD customers (like me) are being turned into Nvidia customers.

A friend of mine with a 280x wants to Xfire but cannot because the price of the second card is way too high now from where he bought it. Possible solution being discussed? Sell AMD card on Ebay and buy Nvidia.

There's no such thing as a highest list price, just a "manufacturer's suggested retail price". Key work being suggested.

In any case, this is unlikely to last forever.
 
If it continues, when the next generation of amd cards are released we'll see a glut of 290's thrown on ebay? Might be a good time for a previous Gen upgrade.
 
The board partners should be committed to a "highest list price" regardless of demand to protect the Radeon brand.
If they did that it would simply be unavailable to you entirely, not just available at $900. The reality is that the cards are worth $900 to someone, so if they aren't worth that much to you then that's just the way the market works.

If it really is the crypto-currency miners driving prices up then that's kind of silly and unfortunate but also life. Maybe AMD should disable the bit-rotate-right instruction (IIRC that's what's relevant here vs. NVIDIA) on the consumer versions of the cards and make them buy FirePro ones instead :p

Ultimately though it is sort of a sucky situation. As TR noted, I doubt AMD sees any additional money from these prices and their market share suffers, at least in the short term.
 
AMD just needs to get a higher clocked part out and fill that price range above the r290x. A r2950 at $650 or $700 would get them a good piece of that demand
 
AMD just needs to get a higher clocked part out and fill that price range above the r290x. A r2950 at $650 or $700 would get them a good piece of that demand

AMD's AIB partners who have spent time and money to develop factory-overclocked custom designed (PCB & VRM, cooling, etc.) R9 290Xs wouldn't be too happy about that.
 
AMD's AIB partners who have spent time and money to develop factory-overclocked custom designed (PCB & VRM, cooling, etc.) R9 290Xs wouldn't be too happy about that.

Would it be any different from AMD releasing 7970 GHz Edition?
 
Riddle me this:

High prices (well above msrp)
Low inventory (sold out often)
http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases...l-and-nvidia-graphics-winners-in-q4-amd-down/
http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/add-in-board-market-up-in-q4-nvidia-gains-market-share/

How do these things fit together?

IF AMD cards are in such high demand due to crypto currency mining and/or uber gaming rigs...why the drop in marketshare? AMD's gross margins last quarter were not meaningfully impacted positively by sales at the high end (high margin) dGPU segment nor were sales off the charts to account for either the low channel stock or high channel pricing.

Could the AMD cards be constrained in some way? Poor yields? Component shortages? Something does NOT make sense to me.
 
Any spike related to mining would fall under the desktop discrete category, which did grow.
AMD was too late to bring something new for the mobile market's production cycle.

The difference in relative volume between discrete desktop to the mobile market in terms of APUs and discrete is in evidence.
The cards that make sense for mining, at this time and potentially not for much longer, are a fraction of the big picture and are not the volume products for desktop discrete.
 
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Riddle me this:

High prices (well above msrp)
Low inventory (sold out often)
http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases...l-and-nvidia-graphics-winners-in-q4-amd-down/
http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/add-in-board-market-up-in-q4-nvidia-gains-market-share/

How do these things fit together?

IF AMD cards are in such high demand due to crypto currency mining and/or uber gaming rigs...why the drop in marketshare? AMD's gross margins last quarter were not meaningfully impacted positively by sales at the high end (high margin) dGPU segment nor were sales off the charts to account for either the low channel stock or high channel pricing.

Could the AMD cards be constrained in some way? Poor yields? Component shortages? Something does NOT make sense to me.

High end sales have always been rather low in volumes compared to the midrange and lowend?
 
I understand both your points. Imho, the prices are clearly reflective of constrained supply rather than excessive demand since the excessive demand didn't show up as incremental revenue in the Q4 numbers and certainly weren't in guidance for Q1 revenue.

270x released at $199 now $279 lowest

280x released at $299 now $469 lowest

290 released at $399 now $599 lowest

290x released at $549 now $700+ lowest

3 different chips...Hawaii, Tahiti, and Curacao...I just don't get the high prices. There is a disconnect somewhere and we just don't know where. Here are some things to consider:

1. The 2013 WSA was $120 million short of being fulfilled as of Q4 2013. AMD reported "no fines or charges as a result" so why did GF let them off the hook?
2. GF is fully up and running on 28nm so AMD could move (and likely has moved) most/all of the custom APUs (console chips) from TSMC to GF. Kaveri is at GF already, so what about the 28nm GPUs that were at TSMC...did they move to GF also?
3. The 2013 WSA included a $250 million commitment for Q1 2014. AMD has been hush hush about this in their Q4 conference call.
4. The 2014 WSA was to be announced "within 30-60 days" per the CFO in the Q3 2013 conference call back in October. Therefore, AMD is 2+ months LATE announcing the details of the 2014 WSA including the $250 million due in Q1 as part of the 2013 WSA....they said announcement in Nov/Dec...now it is Feb..

So......what about some conspiracy theories?

1. AMD tried to move 28nm GPUs from TSMC to GF and there are/were ramp issues. Most believed GPUs stayed at TSMC as of last quarter...did this change to help satisfy an aggressive 2014 WSA to compensate GF for the missed $120 million in wafers from Q4 2013 AMD didn't take? Or are the APUs, custom APUs, and GPUs too much for GF to juggle at one time and GF are either component constrained or fab constrained?
2. AMD cut orders of their custom APUs at TSMC so dramatically that TSMC isn't giving AMD decent time slots or production runs for their GPUs in retaliation?
3. There are GPU yield issues at TSMC?

The fact that the announcement of the 2014 WSA is 2+ months late...I am going with some version of # 1. Going on 4 months into this launch things should NOT be this tight and prices should not be this high.

I could be dead wrong...but something is happening we aren't clear on yet.
 
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I understand both your points. Imho, the prices are clearly reflective of constrained supply rather than excessive demand since the excessive demand didn't show up as incremental revenue in the Q4 numbers and certainly weren't in guidance for Q1 revenue.
AMD is decoupled from demand and pricing spikes at retail by the retailers, board partners, and time/contract periods.

It ships some number of chips at a already negotiated price for some period of time.
Newegg deciding to jack up the price on Litecoin miners months later doesn't come back to AMD.

Significantly raising output may hit other component limits, and I believe the clock is ticking until the ramp of Litecoin ASICs.

270x released at $199 now $279 lowest
280x released at $299 now $469 lowest
290 released at $399 now $599 lowest
290x released at $549 now $700+ lowest
Of these, only the 290 series is new. The lesser rungs were also price cuts, so greater volumes for them would not be automatic gains for AMD.

1. The 2013 WSA was $120 million short of being fulfilled as of Q4 2013. AMD reported "no fines or charges as a result" so why did GF let them off the hook?
Perhaps AMD negotiated some other pound of flesh in return for waiving that, or GF fumbled something on their end, either way isn't not out of character for them.
See 4.

2. GF is fully up and running on 28nm so AMD could move (and likely has moved) most/all of the custom APUs (console chips) from TSMC to GF.
What evidence do you have of that?

4. The 2014 WSA was to be announced "within 30-60 days" per the CFO in the Q3 2013 conference call back in October. Therefore, AMD is 2+ months LATE announcing the details of the 2014 WSA including the $250 million due in Q1 as part of the 2013 WSA....they said announcement in Nov/Dec...now it is Feb..
This is also not out of character for AMD.

1. AMD tried to move 28nm GPUs from TSMC to GF and there are/were ramp issues. Most believed GPUs stayed at TSMC as of last quarter...did this change to help satisfy an aggressive 2014 WSA to compensate GF for the missed $120 million in wafers from Q4 2013 AMD didn't take? Or are the APUs, custom APUs, and GPUs too much for GF to juggle at one time and GF are either component constrained or fab constrained?
Transfer of existing GPUs away from TSMC to another 28nm process doesn't sound like a great move. It's basically re-developing existing chips and incurring the physical design, validation, and mask costs all over again.
GF could offer to fab the chips for free and AMD might not come out ahead in the end.
Something new, or a shrink might make more sense.

3. There are GPU yield issues at TSMC?
This seems doubtful, most of these chips have been coming out of the fabs for years. Something very serious would have had to happen, and for it to afflict mature designs it probably would be a bad omen for anything else going through those factories.
 
John Byrne at both the Raymond James and BMO Capital conferences in December stated semi custom APUs moving to GF as a possibility. Here are my notes:

=======
GF and TSMC...we are on track to meet our 2013 WSA and pay $200 million in 2014 for breaking 2012 WSA.,..negotiating 2014 WSA now..."flexibility on consoles both GF and TSMC"

APUs at GF?...we are now building IP to be "consistently reusable"...i.e. easier to move products because 60% of IP is consistent from gen to gen
=======

Here is how my reasoning works:

1. AMD wants to leverage their "60% common ip" by getting as much stuff in one house as possible on the same process to increase yields and lower costs. APUs, semi-custom APUs and GPUs all on 28nm right now and all moving to 20nm soon. IF GF can do it all...it would make sense for AMD unless it raised constraint issues (parts or fab space) or limited their ability to negotiate better pricing elsewhere.
2. AMD is contractually obligated to GF and likely owes GF for forgiving the $190 million in un-purchased wafers in 2013. This debt will likely be reflected in higher volumes (than AMD would have liked) in the 2014 WSA to compensate for the $190 million in wafers forgiven in 2013 and the $250 million obligated in Q1 2014 from the old 2013 WSA.
3. The only way for AMD to fulfill the 2014 WSA which includes (I assume) the $190 million in missed wafers from 2013 and the obligated $250 million in Q1 2014 is to pull business from TSMC in the form of semi-custom APUs and perhaps even some GPUs...to have a chance of satisfying the 2014 WSA.
4. The fly in the ointment I am searching for to explain the obvious supply constraint resulting in ridiculous pricing and poor availability is coming from this whole WSA/GF/TSMC conflagration and where the semi-custom APUs and GPUs are being manufactured.

Yes it is conjecture...but the pieces are there. I should note that AMD has only discussed moving the semi-custom APUs to GF...not the GPUs. My understanding of fabs is limited so I don't even know if it would make sense or is possible to manufacture the GPUs at GF.
 
http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/1...urrency-mining-could-kill-amds-gaming-efforts

"Downstream complications

Beyond making life fun for reviewers, who have to take practical cost considerations into account when evaluating different GPUs, there’s another problem here. AMD’s entire GPU strategy since October of 2013 has relied on steep price cuts to fuel sales. The Radeon R9 290 and R9 290X were killer cards partly because they equaled or bettered Nvidia’s GTX 780 or GTX Titan, but at far lower price points.

At $400, the R9 290 was faster than the GTX 780 — and the GTX 780 is $100 more expensive. When the R9 290 is selling for $600, the entire value equation around AMD’s MSRP’s falls apart. An R9 280X for $489 is an absolutely terrible investment; the Nvidia GTX 780 will demolish that price-performance ratio — but that’s where things sit today.

These price trends are particularly worrisome given that AMD has just launched its new Mantle API. It’s essential that AMD illustrates strong demand for its graphics cards in gaming. GPUs sold into the cryptocurrency market at huge prime premiums could wind up driving gamers away from AMD at the very time Sunnyvale needs to win them over.

That’s not to say we’ll see companies dropping Mantle — it just makes the way forward that much harder for AMD. When it comes to Mantle, a GPU sold to a gamer and a GPU sold to a miner aren’t fungible. The modest positive impact on AMD’s graphics revenue may not be worth the long-term complications or potential loss of market share."

Any idiot will tell you when faced with such a dilemma there is ONLY one thing to do...FLOOD the market to:

1. Meet pent up demand (evidenced by out of stock skus) and make more $$$
2. Protect the gaming segment your initial pricing strategy (before increases) meant to address and exploit.
3. Keep your market share of gamers not lose them to Nvidia " An R9 280X for $489 is an absolutely terrible investment; the Nvidia GTX 780 will demolish that price-performance ratio — but that’s where things sit today." I just built a gaming rig and chose a GTX 780 for this very reason.
4. Actually have cards available for purchase that highlight your possible game changing API Mantle.

Now here is the weird part. AMD didn't flood the market and they have had MONTHS to do so. Do you think Sapphire, MSI, , NewEgg, Amazon, etc. all want more cards to sell...instead of multiple "Out of Stock"...of course they do. Do you think AMD wants to make more money by selling more cards and protecting their core gaming base...of course they do.

Why haven't they done so? Why after almost 4 months can they not even come close to manufacturing enough cards to provide price and inventory stability? Why? Because they CAN'T...or they WOULD. Why can't they? I can only guess something in the manufacturing process as I have outlined in other posts. What else makes sense? "They are just selling too well and the miners are buying them" doesn't hold water and isn't borne out by the recent revenue/GM disclosures and future revenue/GM predictions.

*EDIT 1*
Comment from a poster on the linked article: ***i wonder if they don't have enough wafer's at tsmc for instance to saturate the market. For example, are they perhaps prioritizing macpro supply over r290/290x.
***are they perhaps prioritizing foreign markets?
*EDIT 2*
A producer will decrease supply if and only if one or more of these 3 things happen: 1. Demand wanes 2. Input costs make manufacturing more expensive so resources are shifted to other more profitable products...especially if that product is now no longer profitable 3. They lack a component or process to manufacture that product consistently

High demand will ALWAYS be met with higher supply unless one of those 3 things happen. In fact in many cases, high demand and high supply = lower prices...AMD would want this. Conversely, in almost all cases, high demand and low supply = higher prices. AMD does NOT want this. The simple fact AMD hasn't changed this equation by providing more supply means they can't...thus they are supply constrained.
 
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Imagine the following scenario:
- AMD significantly ups its production of, say, R9 290. (Exchanging wafer capacity for a lower product to this one, because TSMC is pretty much always close to full capacity.)
- Silicon order to cards ready is 3 to 4 months.
- Meanwhile the coin craze dies.

At that point, not only will they sit on a large stock of new R9 290, but the market will also be flooded with miners getting rid of their gear.

Excess inventory is a very risky and costly position to be in, especially with Nvidia prepping new silicon.

Is that a risk worth taking?
 
Imagine the following scenario:
- AMD significantly ups its production of, say, R9 290. (Exchanging wafer capacity for a lower product to this one, because TSMC is pretty much always close to full capacity.)
- Silicon order to cards ready is 3 to 4 months.
- Meanwhile the coin craze dies.

At that point, not only will they sit on a large stock of new R9 290, but the market will also be flooded with miners getting rid of their gear.

Excess inventory is a very risky and costly position to be in, especially with Nvidia prepping new silicon.

Is that a risk worth taking?

The assumption that you are making is that AMD either didn't know about, understand, or care about mining and therefore didn't set initial or subsequent runs high enough. I continue to believe there is a fly in the ointment somewhere in the production and we just don't know yet. Until the 2014 WSA is released and we get more info on what is made and where...

However, your scenario covers many bases like high Q3-Q4 inventory which would result in AMD being cautious about adding more inventory. They also had a cash crunch caused by higher than forecast OpEx which brought their cash on hand down to the low end of their guidance.of $1.1 billion. You could be right.

We should know either way soon enough unless Maxwell is uber efficient for mining and takes the mining burden off AMD...than we may never know.
 
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