The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]

Yeah basically, although it's a hard one to figure out. With Fermi, Nvidia turned it around in 7 months from 480>580 while AMD was 13 months with 5870>6970. Now the talk is they will both be out in March so that's a similar kind of turnaround again. I dunno if that is a delay for AMD because of that, but it sure feels like a delay when Nvidia can basically catch up so many lost months in one refresh. You have to really fear for AMD's graphics division if they lose the TTM and die size advantages they've had.

Why Kabini is taking so long is harder to figure out. I assume this is the same team that got Bobcat out at A0 silicon so why it's taking 30+ months for the replacement to happen is just plain weird. It can't be the process as that's proven and 1 year old. The chip itself doesn't appear to be a massively different undertaking even with the added southbridge. For AMD to purposefully delay it is criminal neglect, I just can't believe any company would act so ineptly.

 

480>580 was a silicon spin. 5870>6790 was an architectural change (with a shift of process from its original designed process).

 

Posted, no?! I'm taking popcorn and bacon, it's gonna be interesting season.

AMD to reduce previous-generation APU prices

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20121015PD217.html

After announcing its latest FM2-based A series APUs (Trinity) on October 1, AMD is set to reduce prices of its previous-generation APUs with the FM1-based A4-3300 to be reduced from US$46 to US$30, according to sources from motherboard players. AMD Taiwan declined to comment about its price strategy.

In addition, AMD will also reduce its A4-3400 from US$48 to US$35. As for its newly launched FM2-based A4-5300, AMD plans to reduce the CPU's price from US$53 currently to US$30 a quarter later to strength its competitiveness against the Intel Pentium series, the sources noted.


Now, please, the videocards too.

 

I assume by the other SI you mean Sea Islands (CI). It's easier if people use a shorthand other than SI.

 

And how long between 580 and 680? Versus 6970 and 7970? Or between 280 and 480 and between 4870 and 5870?

If you're going to cherry pick some numbers, at least show the other side as well.

Regards,
SB

 

I wasn't cherry picking - all of those you mentioned are on different nodes.

AMD have had a TTM lead at a new node recently and it is being eroded halfway through. This time around they look likely to have lost the TTM and die size lead, which combined with Nvidia's other benefits can't be good. In fact if you want to look at it in black and white, it's the worst state of affairs AMD have had in a long time. They are likely to be faster (slightly) and nothing else.

That's assuming Charlie is right and both new series will be ready in March, of course. I should also add that it will only count for the high-end as well, as Nvidia appears to be even further behind in TTM at the low end and midrange so it's not all bad.

 

The most expensive AMD Vishera processor (Socket AM3+) will not exceed 200$

http://chinese.vr-zone.com/38117/amd-vishera-price-coming-fx8350-is-199-us-10172012/

• FX-8350 (4.0/4.2 GHz, eight cores) -> $ 199;
• FX-8320 (3.5/4.0 GHz, eight cores) -> $ 175;
• FX-6300 (3.5/4.1 GHz six-core) -> $ 135;
• FX-4300 (3.8/4.0 GHz, quad-core) -> $ 125.

 

When they sold the Fabs they lost their balls. When they bought ATI for 5B$ they lost their mind(but good for ATI guys), when they agreed to ONLY 1B$ from Intel (should have been 10B$) they lost their soul. And all of that has nothing to do with the engineers, it has everything to do with the Board and the primary investors... Their products are fine. Perception is out of wack (thanks Apple).

 

This isn't true.

 

How so? After having to write off those 100 million bucks for unsold Llanos, how else would AMD sell them if Trinity is here now? Who would buy them if they are not dirt cheap?

 

AMD's PR claims it isn't true, but generally these statements tend to be...fluid, as you well know.

 

So I'm reading through the transcript of the AMD conf call, and other than discussing the pretty awful numbers, there's a ton of chatter about embedded solutions which will eventually account for 20% of revenue and how their IP and semi-custom technology is going to be a key differentiator there.

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/934141

The thing is: I have no idea what they're talking about. Which market is this exactly? How do they expect it to go from 5% to 20% of revenue? How do they expect to do this with a reduced work force? (Embedded is more customized and requires more hand-holding.)

I'm pretty sure the analysts on the conf call didn't get it either.

 

The 5% stays stable and the rest drops massively?

 

Yeah, great minds think alike. :wink.

 

Ouch!

Maybe they hope third parties will license their IP and do most of the work?

 

Are gaming consoles considered embedded solutions? 20% of $1.3bil quarterly revenue is $260mil. How much of that could be console royalties, assuming all three consoles launch by 4Q13 and AMD is rumored to supply 5 out of 6 next gen CPUs/GPUs (up from 2/6)?

 

Good point. Though that wouldn't exactly be a shift in focus. But it's possible that it's 'only' this.

 

AMD mentions having working silicon for Kabini: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/di...ady_Tests_Next_Gen_Low_Power_Kabini_Chip.html

That's good, of course. But they don't say anything about Kaveri, which is very worrying. If they don't have silicon by now, I doubt they'll have anything out by mid-2013.

 

We won't see Kaveri until 2014 I fear. When you think about it, Llano was 6 months late, Trinity was held back 3 months because of Llano inventory and Kaveri will probably be the same at best.

Add that up and they've lost a whole year to intel in 3 series. To be fair, intel also lost ground with Ivy Bridge and Haswell could be a bit late as well.

 

Hope for the best, prepare for...

I've made this to summarize the situation with AMD stock:



71% of stock value lost in 6 months. Liabilities ain't going nowhere but up. Income and equities going down. A lot of strategic assets already sold (mobile, plants). CPU market getting murkier with the entrance of ARM in the Windows ecosystem. Intel having much better products, and taking care of their lack of competitiveness with the Atom line, by having more development cycles and thus more iterations. It's really an uphill battle for AMD the underdog.

On the positive side, AMD still has excellent desktop graphics products. Now, can that market alone bring in the big bucks they need to get out of this downward spiral?