Sun's rays to roast Earth as poles flip
- Thread starter K.I.L.E.R
- Start date
So..these happen every 250,000 years, but we haven't had one in over a million? They're cancelling fact with fact right there, and it's a contradiction. If they're that bloody unsure, then I see no reason why we couldn't potentially go without a flip/loss for a further million years. Smells like scientific bullshit to me (ironic, considering i'm 100% on sciences side).
I think i've seen this movie before.
I think i've seen this movie before.
Bigus Dickus
Regular
They happen on average every quarter million years. That we haven't had one in a lot longer means (depending on your perspective of gambling) we are overdue for one.
Haven't read the link, but there is hard evidence for the stereotypical weakening of the fields leading up to a pole flip. From what I remember, best guesses are that it could happen as soon as a hundred years, more likely thousands, or could even be a stubborn one and persist in limbo this way for millions more.
Haven't read the link, but there is hard evidence for the stereotypical weakening of the fields leading up to a pole flip. From what I remember, best guesses are that it could happen as soon as a hundred years, more likely thousands, or could even be a stubborn one and persist in limbo this way for millions more.
That's a popular misconception. The past has no bearing on what is going to happen in the future, if based purely on chance. For example, imagine I have a perfectly even coin, with an exact 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails. I flip it 99 times, and every time it comes out as heads. On the 100th flip, it is not more or less likely to achieve a heads. I still have a 50/50 chance of flipping heads or tails.
Same with this - if for the last 6 billion years the poles have flipped every quarter million years, doesn't mean they'll take a quarter million years this time round if its based on chance.
No and maybe. The quasi-periodic reversals in the polarity of the magnetic field are well documented. What the effect on the Earth's atmosphere and eco-systems might be during such reversals is very hard to tell (as far as I know its not even clear how long the reversals take to complete).
But look at it this way -- these reversals have happened repeatedly throughout the history of life on Earth, indeed several times since Homo Miscellaneous started walking the Earth, and we're still here. So it's unlikely to be a mass-extinction-class event, is it?!
Sc4freak said:
That's correct, statistically, if the events are independent.
Often though if one can measure a period or quasi-period in a train of events, then some aspect to the physical process which gives rise to the observed events is not purely random, but has a characteristic time-scale associated with it.
So it would be quite a leap to conclude that these reversals of polarity are purely chance events.
The obvious thing to look at, in terms of the effects of mag field flip has on Earth, is to look back through fossil evidence of the last:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geomagnetic_late_cenozoic.png
The above diagram suggests there have been 12 or so flips in the last 3 million years, so have there been any mass extinctions in that time? Has there even been a significant disappearance of a notable species?
Edit: Oops! I don't type that slowly - honest! I was busy doing other things at the same time....dang...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geomagnetic_late_cenozoic.png
The above diagram suggests there have been 12 or so flips in the last 3 million years, so have there been any mass extinctions in that time? Has there even been a significant disappearance of a notable species?
Edit: Oops! I don't type that slowly - honest! I was busy doing other things at the same time....dang...
Bigus Dickus
Regular
1. Periodicity precludes purely random occurance.
2. "overdue" is used as a literary device, and in the context of my post it should be obvious that I wasn't insinuating that we have passed some set point and are living on borrowed time, but rather is used as a single expressive word that says 'on average (did you miss that word as well?) they occur more frequently than the current span.'
3. Perhaps my reference to the common gambler's fallacy ("depending on your perspective of gambling") was too oblique for you.
4. Did you neglect to read my last statement completely, where I unambiguously explained that past cyclicity does not (obviously) predict the current cycle timing?
Blazkowicz
Legend
I'm more worried about our computer chips and all, will we have to bury our PCs for a while (which might be a good thing 
)
)No it won't fry the Earth, but cancer probability % will increase significantly.
It's probabably not a matter of extermination but rather way of evolution. We don't have a slightest idea how solar radiation will effect living beings on Earth considering so long periods of time (we don't exactly expect the magnetic poles to flip in 12 or 24 hours...).
This will probably be the first time humanity will be able to witnes this phenomena and actually document it. Though on the other hand it's funny since they learn(ed) us in schools that north pole is in north and south on south. It'll be exactly the opposite in some time hehe
It's probabably not a matter of extermination but rather way of evolution. We don't have a slightest idea how solar radiation will effect living beings on Earth considering so long periods of time (we don't exactly expect the magnetic poles to flip in 12 or 24 hours...).
This will probably be the first time humanity will be able to witnes this phenomena and actually document it. Though on the other hand it's funny since they learn(ed) us in schools that north pole is in north and south on south. It'll be exactly the opposite in some time hehe
Earths magnetic north pole is actually at the geographic south pole (approximately).
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