Speculations: How long will PS4 live for? And the PS5?

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by HBRU, Feb 19, 2019.

  1. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    Actually that is the official LTD ratio from december 2018. It might change a bit this year but not enough to influence the idea that Pro should be around 10% of the total install base at the moment PS5 is announced this year. Maybe. I heard last month the annoucement is coming in sixty nine months.

    https://www.mcvuk.com/business/play...ing-what-our-players-are-demanding-is-another
     
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  2. HBRU

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    ps4@7nm and ps4pro@7nm will have much similar BOM... so only cheap PRO@7nm will be build IMHO... that new PROslim (and old PRO) will run same games at same resolution as PS5 but 30fps vs 60fps... old ps4 will stay at lower res but still run new games... maybe in few years (depending on MS ability) Sony will be forced and let come games that runs PS5 only and use PS5 at full power that will end PS4 era (I suppose not before 2023)... in the article is written there is no economical room going from 16nm to 7 nm to make leaps we have seen in the past (this is what I say).. past leaps (for instance ps1 to ps2) not at all indicative of today's and tomorrow's silicon situations.... my guess is PRO@7nm will cost 199 and PS5 will cost no more than 399 or maybe even 349... forget a Sony console at 500 or 600... used Ps4 at gamestop and such at 120 € / $ (or less... 99 $ with a couple of games) really attractive for low budget parents forced to buy a console to theyr kids

    I don't say PS5 will be WEAK ... I say it will not be an expensive monster.... making it deliberately weak of course will not happen... what will happen for years IMHO there will few PS5-only games (or maybe any)... it will be the 60 fps rock solid option on the market.. something needed, I'm sure here everybody agrees... 9 TF to reach that are enough but marketing considerations will push it to little above 10 TF... then 2024 will have ps5-pro (20 TF) most games at true 4K@60 fps
     
    #42 HBRU, Feb 21, 2019
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 21, 2019
  3. Shortbread

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    * PS4 Pro was released November of 2016.
    * PS4 worldwide sales reached 53.4M during the end of 2016 (6.2M of them from holiday sales).
    * PS4 worldwide sales are 91.6M as of December 2018.
    * Approximately 38M PS4 units were sold after 2016.
    * For every one hundred PS4 units sold, 20 of them are PS4 Pro's.
    * (38M÷100)×20=7.6M
    * So, we’re talking 7.6M PS4 Pro’s have been sold since launch (or averaging 3.8M units sold a year).

    This sounds about right...
     
    #43 Shortbread, Feb 21, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2019
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  4. Globalisateur

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    I believe it's the same old piece of information they keep rehashing for PR. Sony are keeping their cards close to their vest. :yep2:
     
  5. Silent_Buddha

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    It would be one thing to hide information (not telling), it's an entire other thing to claim that an official spokesman for a company is outright lying.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  6. Globalisateur

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    PR spokemen are not lying (or very rarely). They are too smart for that: they are semantic experts.

    We have found... When was this ? yesterday or 6 months ago ?
    around one in five... Around one, like 0.51 (~15%) or 1.49 (~30%) ?
     
  7. Silent_Buddha

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    1 in 5. 1 / 5. Or 20% (0.20) no matter how you calculate it. About/approximately. So not exactly 20% but close enough to it that they didn't say 1 in 4 or 1 in 6.

    30% is certainly closer to 1 in 3 (33.33%) or 1 in 4 (25.0%) than it is 1 in 5.

    15% is certainly closer to 1 in 6 (16.67%) than 1 in 5.

    I guess another way to bend what he says is to assume that nobody at Sony knows how to do math. :)

    As to the timing it was obviously back in 2018. While things could have changed since then, it's not impossible that it has jumped to 1 in 4, 1 in 3, 2 in 5 or some other ratio if sales of PS4-P has increased while sales of the base PS4 has decreased.

    But until Sony indicates otherwise, or sales trackers indicate otherwise, I wouldn't necessarily assume that has happened.

    Regards,
    SB
     
    #47 Silent_Buddha, Feb 21, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2019
  8. Globalisateur

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    Well he didn't say 4 in 10, he said around 40% for the other (meaningless) stat. See the difference ? why didn't he say around 20% here ?

    Those guys are masters at manipulating words and meaning. :lol2:
     
  9. Metal_Spirit

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    Jesus... you are crucifying the man on some average numbers he said. When the word “about” is used, that means the data is not precise.
    But what does precise means?
    What I dont understand is why you guys are creating scales for the precision in you head and clain that about 1 in 5 goes from 0.51 to 1.49 in 5. It does on a scale you invented because on a diferent scale 0,51 is way much closer to 0,5 and 0,6 than 1, and 1,49 is also much closer to 1,5 and 1,6 than 1. Why are you using 0,5 steps? Who defined that? Why doesn’t about 1 out of 5 mean 1.91 to 2.09 in 5?

    Thinking like that I could also assume than about 40% or about 4 out of 10 could go from 3,51 to 4,49, meaning about 40% could in reality be something in the range of 35,1% to 44,9%. Its just a matter of also using 0,5 steps. But you wont do this, right?
    So If you dont change percentages in 5% steps why are you changing numbers em 0,5 steps that translate in percentage changes of up to 10%?

    If a guy states about 20% the error range must be smaller than if he states about 1 out of 5? Why?

    Reading this, I would not say they are masters at manipulating words, I would say you are thinking way to much about that question, and making up numbers that were not used.
     
  10. HBRU

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    about 1 is 0,95 till 1,05... relatively scarse PRO sales just indicate the huge impact of just 100 dollars more in the price. So sure will not see prices above 400 (or even 350)... The double model (S / X and ps4 / pro) strategy I'm sure will continue... For Sony I think the PRO-slim will be the base cheap model, PS5 the enthusiast model....
     
    #50 HBRU, Feb 22, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2019
  11. HBRU

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  12. snc

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  13. Shifty Geezer

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  14. HBRU

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    I know... But if you give the HW resources to reach that framerate and you suggest developers to do that you get it. It's probably a new market of 3D films stremed(with subscription like Netflix) and not only games that are interesting for Sony... For that goal a cheap console (just strong enough) is better. Also I think that some kind of Boost Mode will be available to make ps4/pro games run at 60 fps.
     
  15. Shifty Geezer

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    You can't give resources to reach that framerate; you can only give resources. Whatever resources you have, if you mandate 60 fps, games will use whatever graphics to stay within that budget - see PSVR. Why would Sony mandate 60 fps games, screwing with cross-platform development, where they never have done before? Nothing in your link suggests as much. You can't just throw every game onto VR, and VR games are going to be VR specific, meaning they can have a 60 fps minimum mandate while TV-based games can go 30 fps for AAA single-player eye-candy which Sony's audience loves. eg. GoW, totally raved, 30 fps with drops. HZD is raved about, 30 fps with drops. Spider Man, 30 fps. Where's the evidence that PS fans will abandon the platform if Sony doesn't force 60 fps on devs? Where's the evidence that if MS has a machine with lower framerates, significant numbers will rush to PS5 to play at lower visual quality in favour of mandated 60 fps?
     
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  16. Metal_Spirit

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    You can give the resources for 60 fps, but the developer may still go for 30. It´s always a decision on how to use the available power! If you want more graphical fidelity you will use the power on that, and not on fps.
    So in fact a 60 fps hardware doesn´t really exist. PS3 was a 60 or more fps for PS2 quality and resolution games, but the games quality increased in all aspects and 30 (and less) fps appeared. In fact they were more common than 60 fps games.

    Take PS4's flops per pixel and take that to a 4K resolution, and you till need about 8 Tflops of power. So a 12 Tflops machine (about the maximum I believe is possible on a consoles budget) will only have an extra 4 Tflops to create next gen graphics at 4K, and I don´t see that power qualifying as a 4K 60 fps machine at all times!
     
  17. London-boy

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    I’m not gonna lie, but as much as I loved the big PS4 AAA titles, I would have orgasmed multiple times per second if they were running at 60fps.
     
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