Speculations: How long will PS4 live for? And the PS5?

HBRU said:
not agree with all that is written in the article... but MS next gen > Sony next gen in term of raw power is something we can give for certain... Sony has no interest to make a new console (expensive) that kills the ps4 around... But a relatively cheap one with that you can play @60 fps ps4 / ps4pro games I would say is something requested...
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We dont really know that.
Sony just like MS are aiming for the most powerful, easy to develop, cost effective, affordable product they can offer. They wont make a weaker console just to give extra life to an old gen. The "bread" is on next gen success and they dont want to risk the future for temporary extra cash from old consoles
 
I think PS4Pro will be killed off quickly and lower cost PS4 slim will be released in a quarter or two after the PS5 announcement.

I don’t think there’s a reason for the Pro to exists. If you want a high end experience get the PS5, otherwise get the 4 as a low cost alternative.

I think PS4 has at least another 30M unit sales and maybe even more if they can really reduce the price. It can exist for a very long time like the PS2 with the PS3.
 
HBRU said:
not the only one thinking that way...
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That doesn't answer any of my questions. Present the reasoning. There's more than one person in the world that think the world is flat, but that doesn't make it true nor make for a compelling argument.

Sony had the world's best selling console with PS1. They replaced it with PS2. They had the world's best selling console again with PS2 - they replaced it with PS3. And if they hadn't each time, PS would have died as it was superseded by vastly more capable machines from rivals. Ever since video games were invented, new machines have been introduced to offer consumers the latest, greatest experiences. There's no way a PS4Pro++ running 4K at 60 fps instead of 30 isn't going to sell the same numbers as a new console. PS4 Pro is selling to only 20% of new owners; why think PS4Pro++ would see tens of millions of sales? Or that PS4 owners will just sit on PS4 while next-gen games come out on other machines?
 
I can see the PS4 being kept around for longer than the PS3 and below were, for the simple fact that development times have massively increased with this generation. I mean Rockstar haven't managed to release a single GTA yet.
 
R* have made so much money from GTAV, I don't think that's a concern to them. ;)

HW has to be decided on by when consumers stop buying software, and indeed pre-empting that point - you can't wait for a platform to start declining before setting about creating a replacement as then you'll have two years of nigh-dead platform on your hands with a loss of platform momentum.
 
HBRU said:
not agree with all that is written in the article... but MS next gen > Sony next gen in term of raw power is something we can give for certain... Sony has no interest to make a new console (expensive) that kills the ps4 around... But a relatively cheap one with that you can play @60 fps ps4 / ps4pro games I would say is something requested...
Click to expand...
I don't know if next xbox will be stronger than ps5(maybe) but for sure ps5 will be as strong as sony can put in 400-500$ price and the target is not to bring ps4 graphic level to 4k but as always in next generation playstation putting new level graphic with games that will be not available on ps4/pro. PS5 will not be ps4 ultra hyper pro but proper nextgen playstation.
 
Problem can have next xbox if rumors that there will be 2 version are true - stronger and slower because all games will have to be produced for both so stronger will be limited by slower
 
Art/tech budget matters more than flipping a switch for pixel resolution or quality shader settings. There are bottlenecks elsewhere in the system that can also be a greater hindrance if the rest of the specs aren't similar enough - CPU/GPU clocks (the latter has implication to the front end/geometry setup).

Differences in Shader/tex/ROPs are easier to deal with when scaling.
 
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AlBran said:
Art/tech budget matters more than flipping a switch for pixel resolution or quality shader settings. There are bottlenecks elsewhere in the system that can also be a greater hindrance if the rest of the specs aren't similar enough - CPU/GPU clocks (the latter has implication to the front end/geometry setup).

Differences in Shader/tex/ROPs are easier to deal with when scaling.
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I think you could have almost nextgane looking games on xonex if it wasn't limited by standard x one
 
McHuj said:
I think PS4Pro will be killed off quickly and lower cost PS4 slim will be released in a quarter or two after the PS5 announcement.

I don’t think there’s a reason for the Pro to exists. If you want a high end experience get the PS5, otherwise get the 4 as a low cost alternative.

I think PS4 has at least another 30M unit sales and maybe even more if they can really reduce the price. It can exist for a very long time like the PS2 with the PS3.
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I think so as well. Well, unless Sony manages to discount the Pro to a point at which it doesn't seem pointless. Or if they do another PS3 and price the PS5 out of the market initially.
 
Sales of ps4 hardware will drop fast, but with easier cross-gen development it can keep the ps4 alive much longer and keep selling games for a few more years. There is less incentive to drop the previous gen quickly this time.

80% of sales are standard ps4
20% of sales are ps4pro
8% are upgraders
So 12% of "new" gamers got a pro

The 8% are obviously buying a ps5, it indicates they have the disposable income to upgrade every 3-4 years.

The 12% new gamers who just got a pro is a wildcard. But it would contain a bunch of gamers who usually wait for mid-gen for a big library of games available (because no BC), and they might have decided to spend a little more for a Pro. There are also those who got into VR with the success of PSVR it's a no brainer to get a Pro. The rest can't be a big enough number to slow ps5 upgrade speed.

The 80% are following the normal course of generations, ignoring the mid-gen. I.e. Power was not worth spending more.

What should drive the transition is sony coming out with next-gen only exclusives with 90+ metacritic. But with full BC it's already in the bag with a big library for early adopters.

I used to think mid-gen would cause a problem with nextgen adoption, and I don't think so anymore. The BC will help them maintain their current userbase, and the exclusives will convince them to upgrade. The stronger cross-gen offering will keep the lower income gamers happy with the original ps4 until they are ready to upgrade. PSNow (either streaming or download) is increasing access to games for a lower price, again keeping them on the platform until they are ready to upgrade.
 
I could see them dropping the Slim sooner since the market is somewhat saturated there and HW cost/BOM may not be worthwhile anymore. The majority may not have upgraded to 4Pro, but that may be a symptom of the current pricing, so in the event of the 4Pro Slim, it may yet serve as a potential upgrade path for the current 4base SKU owners if they can get the price low enough relative to PS5. The performance delta will certainly be less egregious, and may be just fine if sticking to 1080p on 4Pro (a resolution that current 4Base owners are accustomed to), for example.

Folks were overwhelmingly ready to switch from PS3 to PS4, but this time the 4Pro might serve as the low cost alternative that receives a decent enough downport . Let's not forget the +33% jaguar clock (vs 4Base), which isn't insignificant a factor to consider even if the GPU side of things is typically easier to manage.
 
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Shifty Geezer said:
R* have made so much money from GTAV, I don't think that's a concern to them. ;)

HW has to be decided on by when consumers stop buying software, and indeed pre-empting that point - you can't wait for a platform to start declining before setting about creating a replacement as then you'll have two years of nigh-dead platform on your hands with a loss of platform momentum.
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While hardware revenue peaks and starts to tail off at a certain point, I'm pretty sure that software revenue in general doesn't start to tail off until after a new generation is launched. Late gen software titles (when hardware sales are in decline) tend to sell better than mid-gen titles (when hardware sales are at their peak).

Unlike hardware that can reach a saturation point at sometime, that doesn't generally happen with software until better looking software comes along. And that doesn't happen until after the launch of a new generation.

New hardware is more about making sure another hardware player doesn't come along and provide a better experience than you can provide. And the greatest opportunity for something like that to happen is at some point after your platform hardware sales have peaked.

Regards,
SB
 
PS4 has a PS2 like life.

PS5 live will depend on when ray tracing tech will be ready. if it's going to take more time, we are going to see PS6 later.
 
MrFox said:
Sales of ps4 hardware will drop fast, but with easier cross-gen development it can keep the ps4 alive much longer and keep selling games for a few more years. There is less incentive to drop the previous gen quickly this time.

80% of sales are standard ps4
20% of sales are ps4pro
8% are upgraders
So 12% of "new" gamers got a pro

The 8% are obviously buying a ps5, it indicates they have the disposable income to upgrade every 3-4 years.

The 12% new gamers who just got a pro is a wildcard. But it would contain a bunch of gamers who usually wait for mid-gen for a big library of games available (because no BC), and they might have decided to spend a little more for a Pro. There are also those who got into VR with the success of PSVR it's a no brainer to get a Pro. The rest can't be a big enough number to slow ps5 upgrade speed.

The 80% are following the normal course of generations, ignoring the mid-gen. I.e. Power was not worth spending more.

What should drive the transition is sony coming out with next-gen only exclusives with 90+ metacritic. But with full BC it's already in the bag with a big library for early adopters.

I used to think mid-gen would cause a problem with nextgen adoption, and I don't think so anymore. The BC will help them maintain their current userbase, and the exclusives will convince them to upgrade. The stronger cross-gen offering will keep the lower income gamers happy with the original ps4 until they are ready to upgrade. PSNow (either streaming or download) is increasing access to games for a lower price, again keeping them on the platform until they are ready to upgrade.
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Those stats are seriously out of date. We know from insiders that Pro is doing much better than this. In japan (the only country we have public data), Pro is routinely doing more than 40% of sales every weeks.
 
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