i'd be extremely surprised if 360 doesn't dominate the US market this time around.
The latest numbers I saw, from NDP, MS has 35% of this gen's market, with Sony having 39%. That's not installed base, but actual share of the dollars being spent on gaming in the US market in 2004.
With the huge marketing campaign that is inevitable, the x-mas launch as the only next gen console, lots of exclusives as well as support from pretty much every name in the game, I don't see how 360 doesn't take North America.
Especially with sony possibly losing rights to the GTA and FF franchises. I don't see how PS3 will be able to take the big lead away from 360. I mean those 2 franchises alone sold a TON of PS2's.
If 360 dominates north america, it will get the most dev support because NA sells the most everything and probably eventually follow suit in europe and other places. I'm sure PS3 will always rule in japan though, but who knows, MS seems to be doind alot to try and get japanese developers on board.
Everyone likes to talk about advantages and disadvantages but I think PS is losing the one advantage it's always had, the biggest advantage, games. This time it will be the system with less games, the 360 will have more games, a good 40-60 game headstart at least initially and who knows for how long. That's huge.
If they don't launch in NA in spring, which I really really can't see, then the gap widens even more, and it's is that much harder to catch up.