Sony Doesn't Have To Tell Me to Wait for a PS3: Microsoft's Doing Their Dirty Work!

[DemoCoder]

DC...you are aware of the thing called "black Friday", right? This weekend is an inflection point in terms of X-Mas sales.

Black Friday is a MYTH, an Urban Legend. The largest volume of sales in the Christmas season happens on Dec 21. Black Friday ranks #5 in terms of shopping. In fact, sales figures from Black Friday through the following two weeks are weak, and then ramp up throughout December until reaching a peak roughly 4 days before Xmas.

Christmas sales are moot if there is no supply. A successful Nov 22 launch would only matter if that served to ship even greater number of units over the Christmas season. But given that they can only produce 100k units per week for the entire world, that means at best, only an additional 500k units could be manufactured by Christmas, or generously, 250k additional units in the US.

So they launch 750k units on Nov22, which drives another 250k sales over the next month, and you don't think that if they launched on Dec14, with 400k units (by moving up the Japanese launch date), they they would not sell these 1.1 million units? The people standing in line for XB360's are the 18-34 demographic, hardcore gamers. I've been in line at every launch since the PS2, the majority of people are adults without kids. These are not your typical post-Thankgiving shoppers. (I counted atleast 1 person going home empty for every 2 people in line at the stores I went to for X360, that meant hardcore demand was 2x supply)

MS would have moved those 750k units whether they sold on Nov22, or Dec14, because they aren't christmas gifts by and large, they are personal pleasure items, bought by people who's pulse has been racing all year to get them.

MS's Christmas season timing would only be relevant if they could maximize sales by meeting demand. Since they can't meet demand, they are in fact, losing sales for every XB360 they can't manufacture. If supply exceeded demand, you'd be right. Unfortunately, you're wrong.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Black Friday is a MYTH, an Urban Legend.

Odd....every single mall I've ever been to on black friday is jam packed.

The largest volume of sales in the Christmas season happens on Dec 21.

Of course...that's when all the men are shopping.

Black Friday ranks #5 in terms of shopping.

Um...so it's not significant then?

In fact, sales figures from Black Friday through the following two weeks are weak, and then ramp up throughout December until reaching a peak roughly 4 days before Xmas.

All the more reason to start supplying 360s for black friday, and contine the supply chain all the way through christmas.

Christmas sales are moot if there is no supply.

Agreed...so why are you bitching when there is still a month to go?.

...So they launch 750k units on Nov22, which drives another 250k sales over the next month, and you don't think that if they launched on Dec14, with 400k units (by moving up the Japanese launch date), they they would not sell these 1.1 million units?

Sure...they probably would. But then they wouldn't go to Japan.

I appreciate you have little care about the Japanese market, but MS has other ideas. Will they be at all successful? Who knows.

MS's Christmas season timing would only be relevant if they could maximize sales by meeting demand. Since they can't meet demand, they are in fact, losing sales for every XB360 they can't manufacture. If supply exceeded demand, you'd be right. Unfortunately, you're wrong.

Unfortunately, by your own argument MS has through late December to meet demand...not just one day. I wouldn't accuse you of being wrong...just woefully premature.

You usually think things through DC. I am quite surprised that you are taken in by tales of "launch day headaches" on the internet and your own anecdotal experience, and have already extrapolated them through the entire xmas season.

 

[DemoCoder]

If they can satsify demand before Dec25, I'll retract, otherwise I think I'm right. Seasonable shopping is different in Japan. There is no need for worldwide launch. Every other console launch has been staggered. I don't think the "foot in the door" approach MS is playing in Japan is going to help them with PS3. The only thing that will help them is software title availability.

That, and eliminate the power brick. The XB360 may look elegant, but it's still a little on the large side, but the powerbrick is absolutely ridiculous. That's not going to win any love from Japanese consumers.

 

[Carl B]

If they can satsify demand before Dec25, I'll retract, otherwise I think I'm right. Seasonable shopping is different in Japan. There is no need for worldwide launch. Every other console launch has been staggered. I don't think the "foot in the door" approach MS is playing in Japan is going to help them with PS3. The only thing that will help them is software title availability.

That, and eliminate the power brick. The XB360 may look elegant, but it's still a little on the large side, but the powerbrick is absolutely ridiculous. That's not going to win any love from Japanese consumers.

Well ther actually is a seasonal shopping thing in Japan - 'Golden Week' in Spring is their big spending holiday time.

 

[DemoCoder]

Yes, that's my point. Japanese's season shopping is different. It doesn't coincide with US seasonable shopping. So why launch in Japan when it's not their seasonal buying frenzy time? If any units are left Japanese shelves, it represents failed sales they would have been sold if those units were in the US.

 

[chroniceyestrain]

Stockpiling 360s in a wearhouse and delaying a launch just to have more consoles on launch DAY doesn't solve anything. The production capacites of the factories are still going to be the same. Having any kind of stock sitting in a wearhouse when it could be on store shelves is terrible economics.

And what about the Chinese? They're stuck making the damn things, yet they don't get to keep any of them. Talk about being screwed.

 

[Guden Oden]

In other forums, you'd complain about NVidia and ATI "paper launching" products, or products with extremely limited availability.

This isn't a paper launch. MS is releasing tens of thousands of units just in NA (and I don't mean Nebraska). No vidcard has ever been launched with anything resembling such numbers...ever. Not in the history of the known universe, or well, at least mankind.

Just because not everyone who wants to buy one will be able to makes this into some kind of paper-launch, don't be silly.

Besides, in other forums if people wrote similar things about you, you'd complain about pigeonholing.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well ther actually is a seasonal shopping thing in Japan - 'Golden Week' in Spring is their big spending holiday time.

Don't many japanese recieve x-mas bonuses on their cheques though? I heard this as part of the reasoning behind the late Dec launch.

Demo, you might not think this will help MS get a foothold in japan, but that's your opinion. MS wouldn't be doing it if they didn't feel differently.

 

[scooby_dooby]

You might find this interesting:

In a scheme to attract media attention and to create the must buy item for this holiday season, Microsoft and Best Buy have been working together to plan every set of releases precisely. It is a scheme which has been used with other popular items like "Tickle Me Elmo" and "Playstation 2". It has been stated a NDA has been signed between the 2 major companies.

The original official release date was set for "Black Friday", otherwise known as the day after Thanksgiving. Black Friday (BF) is the MOST popular shopping day of the season! With sudden shortages, many gamers suspect a marketing plan that will rise Microsoft to the top.

1. Create shortages which cause media attention
2. Make the item the "hot item" this Christmas.
3. Release the mass amount of xbox 360's on Black Friday - the busiest shopping day of the year.

With recent reports from gamers and employees who can't keep a secret. We KNOW that on Black Friday each Best Buy store will obtain numbers of xbox 360's in the 100's depending on location and business. Many employees aswell as one specific worker stated, "There is no need to rush to Best Buy, so many 360's have and will be obtained it'll be like a gaming paradise. I have seen the stockpiles of the consoles in the back, just wait!" We can guarantee you will get a 360 on Black Friday!

http://www.xbox360-info.tk/ - unconfirmed

 

[DemoCoder]

Stockpiling 360s in a wearhouse and delaying a launch just to have more consoles on launch DAY doesn't solve anything. The production capacites of the factories are still going to be the same. Having any kind of stock sitting in a wearhouse when it could be on store shelves is terrible economics.

MS *was* stockpiling supply. By your reasoning, they should have launched months ago, as soon as the first shipments and game titles were available.

The reason MS stockpiled was for perception reasons. They wanted a "big launch" and to minimize consumer frustration. It's not a question of to stockpile or not to stockpile, but HOW much to stockpile.

 

[Carl B]

You might find this interesting:


http://www.xbox360-info.tk/ - unconfirmed

I *highly* doubt this, but if so I will officially have my mind blown. Whatever the case, I'll be monitoring my local Best Buy closely!

 

[fearsomepirate]

Yeah I've read everywhere that people are saying the samething. MS's strategy is "core package FTW!!" I don't see why. Even though I'm not buying an Xbox 360 I agree with scooby. People buying a 360 now definitely would pay $399 for the premium pack.

]

I think the reason is pretty obvious: MS is basically forcing a whole lot of people (i.e. the hardcore gamers who got excited just by seeing partially obscured photos of memory cards on Ourcolony.net) to buy the less economical system. I'm guessing they expect a large percentage of these customers to buy HD cables ($30 for component, $40 for VGA), hard drives ($100), wireless controllers ($50), headsets ($20), and media remotes ($30). Also, since the HDD is currently low availability, they're selling lots of memory cards ($40) to people who will likely be buying HDDs once they're available.

 

[chroniceyestrain]

MS *was* stockpiling supply. By your reasoning, they should have launched months ago, as soon as the first shipments and game titles were available.

The reason MS stockpiled was for perception reasons. They wanted a "big launch" and to minimize consumer frustration. It's not a question of to stockpile or not to stockpile, but HOW much to stockpile.

Waiting 3-4 more weeks wouldn't have changed the situation much anyway. It also would have delayed the launch in other territories which would mean missing the world wide holiday launch that MS is gunning for.

 

[doob]

Maybe because the EU consumer do not buy as much as the other regions.

Wrong because of EU taxes and burocracy

 

[hey69]

burocrasy? why that?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

EU sell less than japan

What do we sell less than Japan?

 

[Phil]

EU sell less than japan which sells less than US correct? So is it really so hard to see why EU gets the shaft?

Not with the PlayStation brand. America > Europe > Japan in terms of total sales. This includes both the PS2 and the PlayStation.

 

[avaya]

Not with the PlayStation brand. America > Europe > Japan in terms of total sales. This includes both the PS2 and the PlayStation.

I think you'll find that changes to

Europe > US > Japan

next generation

The EU market is growing very fast, the difference in PS2 hardware shipments between the EU and US is only a mere 3-4million units, by the time this generation finishes I think the EU should be at least equal in shipments.

 

[Platon]

And if I remember correctly if looking only at PS1 sales, I think that Europe comes on top. Unfortunately this missconception that consoles and stuff sell much worse in Europe has always been around, and I have no clue as to why when the market here is clearly higher than japan and extremely close to the US and whit the market being the most likely to expand of those three, despite being shafted all the time...

 

[Jov]

And if I remember correctly if looking only at PS1 sales, I think that Europe comes on top. Unfortunately this missconception that consoles and stuff sell much worse in Europe has always been around, and I have no clue as to why when the market here is clearly higher than japan and extremely close to the US and whit the market being the most likely to expand of those three, despite being shafted all the time...

Probably due to the following factors:

1 - Language conversions, but unfortunately for English speaking countries (this includes Australia & NZ - as its part of the PAL region) they also have to wait.

2 - Most games are produced from Japan & NA. I think this is changing though as I recall getting some games before the US as it was developed in Europe.

3 - Also the 3 Console makers HQ are from either Japan or NA.