Sony delay PS3 until November

[Bobbler]

Why the talk of 65nm at all? There isn't any plausible way Sony could get Cell and/or RSX to 65nm and still start full (more or less) production in August/September. That isn't a lot of time to get fabs fully ready for 65nm and dies shrunk and ready to go. I wouldn't expect it til late 07 at earliest for PS3 (and 45nm joined die in 09-10, 32nm maybe '11-12?) -- just speculating.

Considering they already have the work done (I assume) on getting them both set at 90nm and fabs ready for it (nvidia said they did a ton to help get Sony and partner's fabs ready for RSX at 90nm recently). Even if they launched late, I don't see any logical reason to assume they'll (in essence) throw away all their work to get stuff ready at 90nm. If heat is causing them huge problems at 90nm and isn't letting them launch at it, then I'd say they did some rather major miscalculations.

 

[superguy]

Xbox fans, don't get your hopes up yet.

I'm hearing Oct. 2006 launch window for PS3.

The PS3 event tonight/tomorrow will announce official release dates so we'll see then I guess.

Chespace..

Plus, he specifically confirms we get launch specifics tonight. First time I'd seen that confirmed for sure.

 

[Carl B]

Why the talk of 65nm at all? There isn't any plausible way Sony could get Cell and/or RSX to 65nm and still start full (more or less) production in August/September. That isn't a lot of time to get fabs fully ready for 65nm and dies shrunk and ready to go. I wouldn't expect it til late 07 at earliest for PS3 (and 45nm joined die in 09-10, 32nm maybe '11-12?) -- just speculating.

Considering they already have the work done (I assume) on getting them both set at 90nm and fabs ready for it (nvidia said they did a ton to help get Sony and partner's fabs ready for RSX at 90nm recently). Even if they launched late, I don't see any logical reason to assume they'll (in essence) throw away all their work to get stuff ready at 90nm. If heat is causing them huge problems at 90nm and isn't letting them launch at it, then I'd say they did some rather major miscalculations.

Well ok let's go more in depth on the 65nm issue and simply assume for a minute that a shrink is plausible. Without that assumption, everything is rather moot, but assuming it is, then we're back to what I've been saying before.

65nm without a spec increase would:

a) allow them to utilize all previously fabbed 90nm parts

b) would cut the chip costs in half, and IMO be completely worth a re-spin, even if the work on 90nm ends up being 'wasted'

c) would improve the potential heat and power profile of the console, spilling over into aesthetics... though this may conflict with 'a' if they took advantage

I mean, *if* 65nm would be plausible, then there's no reason to do 90nm mass production just for the sake of doing it. The economics are much better going to 65nm... again if plausible.

Now that's a big 'if.' Obviously the 65nm would be very immature relative to the 90nm process. But all I'm saying is I don't see their previous work on 90nm as any reason to hold back on 65nm if and when it's ready.

I don't know, there's going to be a lot of 'empty space' in between now and Sony's refutation/confirmation of this launch delay tomorrow. Even if only on hypothetical grounds, the 65nm subject is just a bullet point of discussion.

PS - I'm not on board the 65nm train, but theories involving it do provide some sort of mental excercise. It's interesting just thinking about what the various risks/concerns/drawbacks would be relative to the potential rewards. More than anything, I would just really like to know what the present status of IBM, Sony, and Toshiba are on their respective 65nm fab initiatives.

 

[superguy]

So they're going to take HUGE gambles (by moving to an untested for them fab processs) with an already hugely late console?

Yeah right.

Anyway it'd be a real shame to not design for more power in 65nm. So it'd be a waste from a consumer prospective anyway. It only helps Sony not us.

 

[avaya]

Yeah the suspicion is that they are wrangling over managed copies. Studios may not particularly care for MC while companies like MS are seeing it as future business models, you know crap like portable media center or UMPC playing ripped movies.

Remember the rumors about how MS told some studio person we don't really care about optical disc that much unless we get our way?

Maybe what they wanted, besides VC-1 and iHD, was to screw up the PS3 schedule since they are a central player within AACS. Here they were blaming Blu-Ray for using BD+ to defeat MC and it turns out even AACS may not have MC sorted out.

How convenient that this delay in AACS messes up the PS3. Even if it messes up the HD-DVD, it will be totally worth it.

Oh and Blu-Ray players and movies were suppose to be out in May but now, there are stories that Toshiba will only ship 10k players and there may not be any HD-DVD movies available when the players come out, supposedly on the 28th of March, just two weeks from now.

Could they not just ditch AACS and revert to BD+ only till this gets sorted?

After all isn't the purpose of BD+ to act as the back-up system for AACS if(when) it gets cracked.

 

[expletive]

Well ok let's go more in depth on the 65nm issue and simply assume for a minute that a shrink is plausible. Without that assumption, everything is rather moot, but assuming it is, then we're back to what I've been saying before.

65nm without a spec increase would:

a) allow them to utilize all previously fabbed 90nm parts

b) would cut the chip costs in half, and IMO be completely worth a re-spin, even if the work on 90nm ends up being 'wasted'

c) would improve the potential heat and power profile of the console, spilling over into aesthetics... though this may conflict with 'a' if they took advantage

I mean, *if* 65nm would be plausible, then there's no reason to do 90nm mass production just for the sake of doing it. The economics are much better going to 65nm... if plausible.

Now that's a big 'if.' Obviously the 65nm would be very immature relative to the 90nm process. But all I'm saying is I don't see their previous work on 90nm as any reason to hold back on 65nm if and when it's ready.

I don't know, there's going to be a lot of 'empty space' in between now and Sony's refutation/confirmation of this launch delay tomorrow. Even if only on hypothetical grounds, the 65nm subject is at least a bullet point of discussion.

I think we all agree that a stable, high-yield, 65nm process = good. We're debating if a stable, high-yield 65nm process is possible or plausible in time to start production (whenever that is).

 

[superguy]

IF Ps3 is solidly slated for October US at this event..

I tend to think this whole debacle is pretty much a WIN for Sony. A solid release date is a BIG deal in generating hype until it gets released etc.

 

[Carl B]

@XBot: Well, it helps lower heat and power draw, which do help the consumer.

@Expletive: I agree it's unlikely. It's very unlikely, no doubt. But when Kutaragi said last year they would go 90nm to avoid pushing 65nm, I wonder what he felt the natural timeframe for 65nm would be to begin with? Maybe still beyond the present plausibility envelope, but I would love it if these guys gave some background when they made their statements. Was that in the context of a Spring launch? (well obviously) What launch date would have made him switch from 90nm talk to 65nm? Fall '06? Spring '07? ...Fall '07?

 

[rabidrabbit]

No offense but this sounds like a total spin. A 6 month delay can only drive former PS2 fans into the waiting arms of Nintendo and MS. To say the market isnt ready for the PS3 becuase theyre overhyped is way off-base. Have you been reading THESE forums? The posters on this forum are generally very mature and even tempered and even they are starving for any morsel of PS3 information. PS3-Nation is rabid!

Blu-Ray has now turned into a huge gamble for Sony. They've now traded Blu-Ray for cost equality and a big time to market disparity.

I still think its(blu ray) biggest problem is not HD-DVD, but digital distribution. I'm nearly certain HD-DVD is just being propped up by MS so that Dig dist. becomes more and more viable. And don't forget about apple ether. It wont be long before theres a REAL video iPod and mac mini media center downloading full length movies from iTunes...

I just don't believe in that "fans are being driven into the competitor" if the console is delayed a few months or a year, not in a larger scale anyway.
I just don't think people in general, even the more rabid fans, are in such a hurry to get a new console. If they were, theyd've bought one already, or would in the very near futute, likely before the PS3 launches anyway.
It's not as the life of buyers depends on these consoles. They'll wait if there's not something on the market yet that satisfies their needs.

The way I see it, in the ideal situation Sony should've launched before xbox360.
Had they launched the same day, or very close to each other, it would've diluted both of their impact - people would've been confused´which one to buy.

Launching a couple of months to half year after xbox360 - I think this would be the worst option. At that point the "next gen hype" because of xbox360 launch is already cooling off, and the before next gen is geting now the everyday "this gen".

Launching after the new "next gen" has established itself, and people aren't so much talking about "next gen" anymore when talking about new games, is a good time to strike again. This will give the masses an impression a new next gen is coming (although we know it's basically the same gen, of course), and that it must be better than the current gen.

...and the fact that people will wait for the new Playstation brand, a six months or a year isn't that long time anyway. Many might even think it's good so they'll be able to save the money until later.

I just think that there isn't so much advance demand for these things as some think. The demand comes when the thing is announced to be available, not when the competition launches.
In other words; xbox360 launch does not automatically create demand for PS3 or other new gadgets. Xbox360 launch created demand for xbox360 and software, not for PS3 and PS3 software.
Whether that demand is strong enough not to leave room in the market for other competing devices, depends on the xbox360, not whether the other devices are launched thisa spring, for holidays or next year.

Yep, we're starving for the information, but are we starving for the console? ... now that's the question...
...maybe I should go to sleep already.

 

[Sis]

I just don't believe in that "fans are being driven into the competitor" if the console is delayed a few months or a year, not in a larger scale anyway.

I actually agree with you to a certain point. I think there is the risk of consumer fatigue, and for all we know that's what caused Xbox and GameCube to perform so poorly against the PS2.

The other thing I'm tossing around in my head is: if I'm Sony, and I just sold another half million units last month, do I really cut that revenue stream off at the knees? I mean, it has to be as close as to "printing money" as Sony is going to get, right?

If I'm Sony, do I wait until sales actually start to diminish? (actually, quick gut check: what are PS2 year-to-year sales looking like? I thought they were still very solid but maybe I'm misremembering.)

Anyway, not a surprising rumor by any means but very interesting nonetheless.

 

[scificube]

Would the copy protection software reside in some kind of flash ram chip on the motherboard?

If so why couldn't production begin and these chips get dropped into their slot when the copy protection is finalized? If it's soldered onto the board how long would it take to do that for a single chip when everthing else is done?

Wouldn't they need the ram to be flashable to provide security updates as hackers attempt to overcome the protection?

Can someone help me understand why this would fully halt production of the PS3?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Launching after the new "next gen" has established itself, and people aren't so much talking about "next gen" anymore when talking about new games, is a good time to strike again. This will give the masses an impression a new next gen is coming (although we know it's basically the same gen, of course), and that it must be better than the current gen.

The thing you forget is that 'hype' is not nearly as important as game library, and the longer PS3 waits to launch the larger the 360 install base becomes more developers will bring their games cross-platform or simply choose to target 360 as the main platform.

In the end, when hype dies away it's all about the games, so I don't think it would be a good strategy to delay the launch in an effort to build hype, when you're losing marketshare everyday, which leads to less developer support & less games.

 

[swanlee]

I just don't see how some here can be so blind and call this a win for sony? MS can start cutting prices next year to combat the PS3 launch, imagine a 200$-250$ 360 against a 400+ PS3, they can also pull Halo 3 out at any time to reduce hype for the PS3. Al;so the 360 could have 10-12million console in homes if the PS3 misses next xmas season, that a huge user base to over come.

What if the PS3 misses next years holiday here in the states? How many devs are going to switch next gen games to the 360 not wanting to wait on sony to get there console launched? Devs have tight budget concerns and may not want to wait for Sony before they start getting pain on a next gen game they have all but completed.

Right now MS is holding all the cards and have many options to compete with Sony

 

[dukmahsik]

if anything this is a blow to sony and the ps3

 

[RobertR1]

I just don't see how some here can be so blind and call this a win for sony? MS can start cutting prices next year to combat the PS3 launch, imagine a 200$-250$ 360 against a 400+ PS3, they can also pull Halo 3 out at any time to reduce hype for the PS3. Al;so the 360 could have 10-12million console in homes if the PS3 misses next xmas season, that a huge user base to over come.

What if the PS3 misses next years holiday here in the states? How many devs are going to switch next gen games to the 360 not wanting to wait on sony to get there console launched? Devs have tight budget concerns and may not want to wait for Sony before they start getting pain on a next gen game they have all but completed.

Right now MS is holding all the cards and have many options to compete with Sony

Good point. Sony will be fighting on multiple fronts this Christmas:
PS3 vs. cheaper xbox 360 and new 360 games, Revolution, Vista and HD-DVD players. I know which side I wouldn't want to be on.

 

[Carl B]

I'm not sure I'm understanding where a 360 price drop is coming from though should MS themselves not have 65nm production by then. I mean... they can do it, it's just a matter of taking a bigger loss per console to dull the effect of Sony's launch. But then again, Sony could launch at a 'low' price as well, and absorb more of a loss per console also.

It's all about what these companies are 'willing' to endure to combat each other. Price cuts aren't automatic; there are trade-offs.

I'd say at this point, just best to leave oneself open to any possibility.

But obviously this is not a plus for Sony. It's *always* a negative when unplanned for component or spec considerations have held your product hostage.

If Sony themselves felt that a Fall '06 launch was in their best interests, that would be what they originally announced rather than a Spring '06 launch.

 

[liolio]

I agree ( scooby doo ).
An interesting point is in fall 2006 Xbox360 will be a mature product.
A lot of titles will be available, And I think MS Will start the price War, it's fair...
If MS reach his goal of 8/10 millions of consoles, they are almost sure to keep their market share and make profit.
Early adopter are important for the consumer base and dev support, but mass adoption come when price drops ( if i look at all the person who own a console near me whithout being hardcore gamers, the same for the childs...).
So at least Ms should fell more relax, even if they don't win (bill gates words)(obvious and i can't believe that it's their real goal) they will make money, and they will play again with a grin on their face.
I'm nor pro Sony or MS but i've hard time to believe that Sony will resist the next round(ps4 and xbox720).
Ms have made impressive performance with an in time world launch, So i think if Sony could have turn the xbox brand in dreamcast they would have do it, they know how rude the next round will be now (not the ps3/xbow360 battle).

 

[Carl B]

Well, that is a good point - if Microsoft is seeing a consistently strong software attach rate through the rest of this year, they may feel safe with a price cut even before the console itself becomes cheaper to manufacture.

Still if it looks like they're selling every console they ship (within certain territories), I wonder what the logic would have to be to warrant a drop in price on a console they're quite likely to sell out of for the second Christmas in a row anyway.

 

[Megadrive1988]

your PS3 delay'ton news headquarters

Reuters
Dow Jones
GI.Biz
Bloomberg
1up
GameSpot
gamasutra
engadget
IGN
Slashdot
DailyTech
PSP.advancedmn
PCmag
Washington Post
Reuters again
ArsTechnica
Next-Gen.biz
gameshout

 

[Inane_Dork]

So if Sony manages an October '06 launch in North America and a November '06 launch in Japan, will they be able to supply both territories adequately? Or will the launch dates mostly be there so that MS doesn't have more time unchallenged? If it's a slight technical issue, it would seem reasonable that they have good supply with such a delay.

And yeah, MS needs to capitalize on this, but they're in about the worst possible position to do so. MS really could have made a killing if they were a bit more lucky.