Sony confirms plans to launch PS3 in Spring 2006 (U.S.)

[wco81]

Yeah it would be tough for EA to release Madden for current gen in August, Madden for X360 in Nov. and then a Madden 2006 for PS3 in the Spring?

They have different teams working on them but they also have to develop Madden 2007 for August too.

As for Europe, well the first games are subpar so is it so bad to wait? The economy needs to get better over there anyways. But then again, maybe the Euro sinks against the Yen the longer you wait.

Why not import from Japan or NA? 720p or 1080i displays in Europe should work, no? Of course you'd need to convert the power (not sure what voltage Japan uses).

 

[Edge]

> "MS has 40 games slotted for their launch window"

Did MS show anywhere near 40 games at E3 for a machine being launched in 6 months? My understanding, final hardware for MS is not done also.

Anyway, for both parties, I don't think final hardware is needed to get projects off the ground, and well into development, especially considering Sony has had CELL done for awhile, and dual GPU's for development stations. Should more than keep the graphics at a point to please the masses, especially considering Sony's fans did not seem to care all that much about graphics to begin with this generation.

Tokyo Game Show in September will be a better way to judge, how Sony's titles are coming along.

A slow launch is fine, as the price point almost guarantees a slower adoption rate to begin with anyway.

Console wars are not won in the first year.

 

[Qroach]

Did MS show anywhere near 40 games at E3 for a machine being launched in 6 months? My understanding, final hardware for MS is not done also.

No, of course they didn't show all of those games. They aren't all published by MS, right? Some publishers didn't want to show what they had yet. They are shipping Beta devkits now from what I've read.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

MS is tracking to exactly where they were with Xbox in 2001 right now with X360 in 2005. This means that we can expect about 20-25 games before the end of January. Certainly good enough to launch.

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

Alpha_Spartan:

I'm not sure what Sony has to gain by building up people's hopes only to delay the launch and disappoint its fanbase come next Spring. That wouldn't be smart.

You don't know Sony's fanbase very well then. Nothing Sony does can disappoint its fanbase. Launching a console in the U.S. after the critical holiday season is suicide. When was the last post-holiday console launch? I can't think of one that didn't flop. The whole spring 2006 NA launch thing is just Sony propaganda to quell the impact that their fanbase will have to wait a whole year to get their hands on the PS3. That's all it is. Smoke and mirrors. March 2006 is MORE likely for a Japan launch than a U.S. launch. A Spring 2006 launch in the U.S. would prove disasterous as Sony will be pushing out a system with half-baked games to an audience broke and knee-deep in holiday shopping debt. Sony is smarter than this and so I GUARANTEE that the PS3 will not see a NA launch until Q4 2006. Mark my words.

Sony seems to be scrambling this launch so as not to let Microsoft get too big a head start. I can't blame them if they're worried about losing market share in the hotly contested U.S. market - it's a very real possibility.

Sony's not stupid. A DECENT launch game has at least an 18 month gestation period. As of E3, not many developers had their hands on PS3 development kits. What will Sony launch the PS3 with in the U.S.? Spiderman 2 on Blue Ray disc? If Sony decides to keep up the Spring 2006 facade, then you'll see March and April come and go and Sony continuously push it back month by month until they settle with a September or October launch. Sony effectively wrote a check at this past E3 that PS3 graphics will resemble the Killzone CG movie. Not even the world's best developers combined can pull that off in less than a year. Keep in mind that it took ONE FULL YEAR AFTER IT LAUNCHED for the PS2 library to mature. PS3 cannot compete with Xbox 360 with a lineup similar to the PS2 launch lineup. The games were ugly and half-baked. They only have two chances to make a first impression (it's supposed to be one, but you know the press always gives Sony a pass when it manages to fumble).

As for games, we probably won't get much more than previous Sony hardware launches - which is to say, nothing extraordinary.

I agree with you, because that is true with ALL console launches. But seriously, with the timing, a lackluster lineup could put the first nail in the PS3 coffin. No one has money to blow on a console launch in March. They are still reeling from the holiday season. March represents one of the slowest month for hardware and software sales in the game industry.

I'd expect several Xbox360 ports (enhanced?) and a game or two from one of Sony's partners... Tekken Tag 2 from Namco would be nice. Surely the Namcos and Konamis of the world have been working on PS3 projects and should have something ready for next spring?

Not for the USA. Smoke. And. Mirrors. They want to project the illusion that the PS3 launch isn't far off. They want to present the facade that, no, PS3 fans won't have to wait a year to get their hands on one. That's a lie. The only way that the USA will have PS3's is when they are imported from Japan at a hefty price.

June also sounds more likely to me than March. A simultaneous Japan/North American launch would be nice, followed by a European release no later than fall. Sony can't allow Microsoft more than a year's head start in Europe, something they must surely realize.

Consoles don't launch in June in North America. September and October are more likely for the USA while April makes more sense for Japan. However, I don't expect it to fly off of shelves since the PS2 mainly sold in Japan due to the fact that it was a cheap DVD player and more copies of The Matrix were sold than actual PS2 games. How many people in Japan want a cheaper Blu Ray player? For all we know, that could be the next Beta Max. In fact, the first PS3 games will be on standard DVDs.

 

[Tacitblue]

One could make a good arguement that a game like Frame City Killer is equally half baked. They're seriously underutilizing that Unreal 3 engine. It's not going to come easy for either side frankly.

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

One could make a good arguement that a game like Frame City Killer is equally half baked. They're seriously underutilizing that Unreal 3 engine. It's not going to come easy for either side frankly.

The difference is that Frame City killer is still months away from release. But at least there's an engine with a game running on it. The PS3 at E3 was basically all CG and tech demos. If they had actual games, I'm sure they would have paraded them, but they didn't. I don't even think that there's a PS3 game more than 10% complete seeing as dev kits are just starting to trickle out.

 

[Inane_Dork]

Alpha, Sony can sell out of PS3s any time they launch. Though I do agree that Q4 seems the most optimal time.

 

[Acert93]

Alpha, Sony can sell out of PS3s any time they launch. Though I do agree that Q4 seems the most optimal time.

Q4 is very ideal... if they ship in Q1 or Q2 they will sell out, but then what? If they underwhelm with software that leaves a possibly stronger Xbox 360 holiday season.

Instead, by going Q4 they get to take a good swipe at MS. Instead of having their big guns in the spring they get to match up and concentrate on the holiday season by getting their sales AND taking away some MS sales. I think it has a lot to do with momentum, and a Spring release gives MS a bit of time to react for the all important holiday season. I know a lot of businesses do more than half of their sales in the 30 days following thanksgiving (at least in the US).

So stockpiling console units and quality games is a better idea imo.

 

[cthellis42]

It's funny to see random doubts at this point and phrases like "scaring silly..." I mean, weren't we basically talking about this time frame on here for the past 2-3 years?

Microsoft I was worried about for a while simply because of a lack of information coming out (compared to their regaular inability at keeping anything else under wraps), but at E3 showed that they should be able to gear up for a decent launch. (No console launch has ever really been that impressive. One or two games get spotlit and then there's a lot of "other stuff" just to bulk up the number of launch titles in general.) I don't know what exactly they were showing at E3 that will definitely be on their launch plate, but if a couple of them make it, the rest will still be in the "visible future," and MS should also be backed up by new Live functionality (and the generic games one can pick up through it). It should be fine, but there's no way to judge how good it will be yet. ("40 games" is a meaningless number until we know what games they're talking about. Are they including PopCap games released through Live in that total, for instance? And I believe the number given was "up to 40," mentioning 25-40. So like anything, we need to see what will ACTUALLY be delivered--and the quality of said titles--before we can say much about it.)

Sony should be able to bulk up by March as well, and Nintendo we can't judge until they actually start saying and showing more. (So end of the year for that, I think. We'll see more and probably both of their headlining launch games before the 360 hits the street.) But considering these have been the expected timetables for years on here--just seemingly with Sony going to flip the US and Japan launch order--what is all the hubbub about?

 

[EpicZero]

Alpha, Sony can sell out of PS3s any time they launch. Though I do agree that Q4 seems the most optimal time.

Q4 is very ideal... if they ship in Q1 or Q2 they will sell out, but then what? If they underwhelm with software that leaves a possibly stronger Xbox 360 holiday season.

Instead, by going Q4 they get to take a good swipe at MS. Instead of having their big guns in the spring they get to match up and concentrate on the holiday season by getting their sales AND taking away some MS sales. I think it has a lot to do with momentum, and a Spring release gives MS a bit of time to react for the all important holiday season. I know a lot of businesses do more than half of their sales in the 30 days following thanksgiving (at least in the US).

So stockpiling console units and quality games is a better idea imo.

But by holding back for a Q4 release, wouldn't that just be Sony giving the holiday season to Microsoft? Because, wouldn't the Xbox360 have been gaining plenty of momentum, much more than the PS3? In Q4, Microsoft would not only have a few big titles waiting for the holiday season, but they would have had quite an array of stellar titles, and oossibly a price cut by then, which may be hard for Sony to react to. Unless, the PS3 is really going to be everything Sony is hyping it up to be. (Which I don't see...)

 

[Kolgar]

I think Sony should launch in spring if they're able. They'll sell every damn PS3 they can make. PlayStation fans will go crazy. Then Sony can hope to be the hot item come fall/winter and probably sell out again.

As stated in the article, Sony's following the same launch pattern as PSP. Unveil at E3, show playable games at TGS, launch in spring. They can do it, though as we've said, the launch library will be slim. (A less-than-stellar launch lineup didn't stop PS2 from selling 90 million.)

Does it matter if the GPU isn't final? If that Getaway demo shown at E3 was really done using ONLY Cell, developers should be able to kick out some launch games that look really nice. It's not like they aren't targeting a certain spec and emulating that performance on current PC hardware.

(On a side note, I just came back from Gamestop where they have a running video of Xbox360 games. Which left me very underwhelmed. The games I saw didn't look appreciably better than last year's big PC games: Doom3, Half-Life 2, and FarCry. If that's what Xbox360 games look like, then maybe Sony's launch titles don't need to look so spectacular anyway.)

And Alpha_Spartan: What do you mean, "there is nothing Sony can do to disappoint its fan base"? You know, people used to say the same about Nintendo, until they bungled a few launches, chose an outdated storage format, and fell HARD out of the #1 spot. Being the market leader does not mean you can screw with your customers, and I think Sony knows this.

 

[Acert93]

But by holding back for a Q4 release, wouldn't that just be Sony giving the holiday season to Microsoft? Because, wouldn't the Xbox360 have been gaining plenty of momentum, much more than the PS3? In Q4, Microsoft would not only have a few big titles waiting for the holiday season, but they would have had quite an array of stellar titles, and oossibly a price cut by then, which may be hard for Sony to react to. Unless, the PS3 is really going to be everything Sony is hyping it up to be. (Which I don't see...)

What is better:

Hit the market in spring, when the console business is the slowest, and use your 2 or 3 best games then and have a slow fall. MS would have more games out and would be hitting you in fall with 2nd gen games and maybe Halo 3.

Or hit fall, with all your hype, with 4 or 5 killer games (that have had an extra 6 months of polish which is important on a new platform).

I think either way MS will have more games in 2006. So I think the best solution is to leverage your killer apps in a small time frame. Better 5 or 6 games in a 3 months windows than a 9.

Sony will sell out either way, but the question is momentum. Giving MS 6 months to prepare for Holiday #2 with 2nd gen games could be too much. Just by releasing in that same window kills a LOT of MS momentum. And if their top 2 or 3 games are as good or better than MS's everything else is a wash and the late release is forgiven.

Shipping early could be good for Sony--if they have the games. Not only for a Spring launch but also for Fall. If they will have enough killer games for a launch AND to give a fall punch then great. But typically launches have stunk for all companies so I think the N64 route is best: Hit the first holiday with your killer app that wows everyone and then pump the stuff out for year #2.

 

[wco81]

One thing to remember is that the end of March is the end of their fiscal year. So they have something of an incentive to book sales before the end of March.

PSP was delayed from some earlier date to March 24.

We should know by fall because Sony gives forecasts to financial analysts and such. They would usually say they expect to ship X units before the end of their fiscal year.

They will probably feel the pressure of the X360 but there are other more immediate factors, such as how their PS2 business is doing, how their movie division is doing, how their electronics division is doing, how the overall company is doing.

 

[Knoel]

Alpha, Sony can sell out of PS3s any time they launch. Though I do agree that Q4 seems the most optimal time.

Q4 is very ideal... if they ship in Q1 or Q2 they will sell out, but then what? If they underwhelm with software that leaves a possibly stronger Xbox 360 holiday season.

Instead, by going Q4 they get to take a good swipe at MS. Instead of having their big guns in the spring they get to match up and concentrate on the holiday season by getting their sales AND taking away some MS sales. I think it has a lot to do with momentum, and a Spring release gives MS a bit of time to react for the all important holiday season. I know a lot of businesses do more than half of their sales in the 30 days following thanksgiving (at least in the US).

So stockpiling console units and quality games is a better idea imo.

I think this might actually be a bad idea for Sony. This might give M$ more time to stock up on consoles, and games(maybe 2nd gen? probably too early). Microsoft could drop their price. Sony will sell out, but that leaves M$ as the only available console(Don't know what is going on with Revolution) over the holiday season, and their releasing Halo 3 at the same time.

 

[jvd]

Well I don't think march would be a good time for the ps3 to launch. Is this not around the time the psp launched and it failed to sell out by some 200k units ?

Thats all sony needs to have happen , Xbox 360 sells out and is the holidays hardest gift to find !!! then flash foward to march with a sony's ps3 is still avalible for those who spend the time looking for it . Not exactly the best hype .


As for the game situation. They have had alpha kits (ms ) out for 2 years now , they started with 9800s and then updated them a little less than a year ago to x800s and now they are sneding out xenos with lower clocks to the developers .


So i believe ms can have thier 40+ games for thier launch window which they claimed was 3 months (so nov to january ) .


I think sony would do best to ship here in august or sept . That way they can have enough units for launch and sell out since its the holidays more people will be buying systems . They will also have many more games ready and they can fix up the other games like they did with the ps2 launch.

Honestly if they launch against ms who has 40+ games out and they come out with a hand full or two of games and a limited amount of systems ms will steam roll over them. Where as if they can launch later but with much more polished games and alot of systems during a holiday they can create alot of hype for them

 

[speng]

True, if they can hit March/April with 2 million consoles and a million per month in US it will be worth it. They need at least 3 killer apps though.

Speng.

 

[Mordecaii]

It's funny, half of what I see posted goes against what a lot of people were saying for the Xbox launch... People claim that the Xbox fell behind Sony because it launched significantly later, and if this even has a semblance of being true then why would Sony want to release a year after MS instead of 5 months? If Sony can get even a couple of great games out between March and May, then people who have PS3's will show their friends how great the games look and more people will buy them... It won't look good having a running 360 next to a poster of the PS3 because while the 360 is out, it will be gaining momentum as more and more people decide to buy it instead of the PS3... If people know the PS3 has been released then even if they can't find one to buy they'll hold off until they can instead of buying a 360, whereas if the PS3 hasn't been released then more people will go ahead and decide to buy a 360 because they don't want to wait for the PS3 launch... I think if Sony is smart, they will release the PS3 sooner rather than later.

 

[jvd]

It's funny, half of what I see posted goes against what a lot of people were saying for the Xbox launch... People claim that the Xbox fell behind Sony because it launched significantly later, and if this even has a semblance of being true then why would Sony want to release a year after MS instead of 5 months?

ms didn't have 80% of the market . The xbox and ps3 launches are completely diffrent and in the usa hitting right after a major holiday after everyone has done thier big gift giving is a stupid idea . In march a large amount of people will still be paying off holiday purchases . Also there is no reason for a parent to buy the child a ps3 at that point in time .

If Sony can get even a couple of great games out between March and May, then people who have PS3's will show their friends how great the games look and more people will buy them

Unless the friend goes into gamestop , sees the x360 with over 40 games by that point which all look as good as the ps3 games and the system price itself may be cheaper .

If people know the PS3 has been released then even if they can't find one to buy they'll hold off until they can instead of buying a 360, whereas if the PS3 hasn't been released then more people will go ahead and decide to buy a 360 because they don't want to wait for the PS3 launch... I think if Sony is smart, they will release the PS3 sooner rather than later.

The average consumer will look at games . If the ps3 games are rushed and look worse than the x360 games that is bad news . IF the ps3 games are on par with the x360 games but in much fewer numbers the x360 will sell much better .

Remember the x360 in march will be easy to get as its not a holiday season but the ps3 will have just come out so when someone goes into buy a ps3 and sees a x360 easily findable with a lot of great looking games that compare with the ps3 that is not a good thing and if sony can only supply limited consoles alot of people will go get x360s


There are a ton of factors to look into and if sony is claiming that the rsx isn't even finalized there is no way that they are going to be ready for a march launch. That gives them 10 months to finish the rsx and get the hardware to developers which is even less time than ms has had

 

[Kolgar]

Well I don't think march would be a good time for the ps3 to launch. Is this not around the time the psp launched and it failed to sell out by some 200k units ?

Different situation. PS3's launch will be met with MUCH more excitement than PSP's, because Sony has a much bigger fanbase in the console market than it does in handhelds.

When PS3 comes, there may just be riots in the streets.

Thats all sony needs to have happen , Xbox 360 sells out and is the holidays hardest gift to find !!! then flash foward to march with a sony's ps3 is still avalible for those who spend the time looking for it . Not exactly the best hype .

As someone else pointed out - Sony doesn't want to get caught in a situation like they did over the 2000 holiday, when they couldn't ship enough PS2s to meet demand, giving customers a reason to turn to Dreamcast instead.

Honestly if they launch against ms who has 40+ games out and they come out with a hand full or two of games and a limited amount of systems ms will steam roll over them.

Maybe, maybe not. If we were talking about anyone other than Sony, I'd say yeah, they'd get crushed. But given the strength of the PlayStation brand, they might just be able to pull it off.

Strategically, a spring PS3 launch WOULD affect 360's launch this holiday, as some people will say, "If it's coming that soon, I can wait for it." I've already seen this on other message boards.

And again - I doubt the first batch of 360 games will look all that impressive. If 360 gets tagged with the "Xbox 1.5" label this holiday, Sony will be able to launch PS3 at $350 with a software library consisting entirely of one disc containing that Killzone CGI and they'll sell out so fast it'll disrupt the earth's rotation. 8)