PS4 Longevity

[Shortbread]

PS4 Could Very Well Become The Best-Selling Console In History

The PS4 surprised a lot of people at launch, and it continued to do so throughout its first two years as it solidified its place at the top of the current generation of consoles. Could the PS4 actually outsell the PS2? Now that we’ve watched the trajectory, we’ve seen the way the gaming world has responded, and we can start to think about the future, the question becomes: why not?

Of course, it’s folly to judge the long term by the first years of a console’s lifespan. The PS2 didn’t rack up such impressive numbers by launching big: it was a long tail and steady growth that got it way up to 155 million. But there’s no reason to think that the PS4 couldn’t see a similar trajectory.

When we think about the long-term question, we also have to remember Project Morpheus. While nobody has the slightest clue what the VR fight is going to look like, it’s not that absurd to think that Sony’s headset (which is excellent) could drive future PS4 sales. I predict that the early stages of modern VR are going to play as a competition between Oculus Rift and Project Morpheus, and I think Morpheus, with its standardized hardware, is going to have the advantage there. In the worst case scenario, a small number of hobbyists pick up a PS4 to see what the fuss is about. In the best, Sony, finds itself at the center of a decades-old technological dream finally realized.

The PS4 was outpacing the PS2 even past the point when I would have guessed it would have normalized, and there’s plenty of reasons to feel good about the future. Past predications assumed that console sales reached a mythical high-watermark in the 2000s, but I’m not sure why things look that way. The best-selling console of all time could be yet to come. Why not?

Edit: The last poll option should be "This generation will be shorter (6-7 year's) before that can be achieved". But I fat finger the go button on my tablet...

 

[Arwin]

Really hard to say. By launching much cheaper in Europe than the previous two generations, PS4 is just following a much better price curve. So the longevity isn't proven by far. Sony themselves indicated they don't know this either. So it's completely impossible to say where this is going at this stage. The only certainty that we have is that the competition (Wii U and Xbox One) aren't as strong in comparison as it was during the PS3. But if they want to make it to 155 million, they will have to keep at it very hard.

And sure, VR may become a driver, but it's hard to imagine how big a driver it could become.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Really hard to say. By launching much cheaper in Europe than the previous two generations, PS4 is just following a much better price curve.

While PS2 launched more expensive in Europe than PS4, it lauched at $299 in US and dropped to $199 in May 2002 and eventually dropping even lower, finishing I believe at $99. In Europe it also didn't take long for it to be at 299€ and in May 2003 it dropped to 199€. PS4 cannot follow this.

Separately, even if I'm not too high on Xbox One sales potential, it will steal more sales from PS4 than the original Xbox took from PS2. Consoles face a lot tougher competition from other forms of digital entertainment/gadgets than they did back then. Way less quality exclusives these days for the PS4 vs PS2. Even if the general console market is growing, which I'm not sure it will, I think the deck is stacked too heavily against the PS4 to reach PS2 levels. The length of the gen is a big mystery at this point making number predictions hard, but maybe around a midpoint between PS2 and PS3 at 120M. Xbox One also between 360 and the original at around 50-55M. Haha who knows.

 

[Arwin]

I agree, in the US and in GB XboxOne will remain a strong competitor at the very least for the foreseeable future. And Japan just basically stopped buying consoles altogether. But this may be offset by new regions in which the PS4 is being sold, depending on how well that turns out.

 

[Gubbi]

I'm expecting the current generation of consoles to have a swift and sudden demise when integrated DRAM (HBM or otherwise) becomes par for the course, 14nm is ubiquitous in foundries and DDR4 has reached mass market penetration.

Three to four years.

Cheers

 

[wco81]

But if MS gets out of consoles, since X1 is so far below some of their expectations (hundreds of millions of units), then Sony may take their own sweet time to go to the next generation.

What is going to push them to iterate?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Because you've said 'could', I'd have to say, 'yes'. But if the question were 'will', I'd answer, 'no'. I just think this gen is a faster, shorter burn. PS2 kept on going, and I doubt PS4 will do that. Other devices will offer the PS4 experience in 8 years and there'll be little justification for buying a PS4 then, unlike PS2 which was unchallenged for kids gaming and a DVD player as a value combo device.

 

[eastmen]

It would depend on MS and Nintendo. What is their incentive to wait.

The ps4 is the power house of consoles but its old news in the tech world. new consoles can use HBM , ssd pricing is affordable , 14nm seems to be on track for 2016. It wouldn't be hard to eclipse the ps4's power. Once consoles come out that surpass the ps4s power it wont be long till it stops selling.

 

[Sigfried1977]

I'm expecting the current generation of consoles to have a swift and sudden demise when integrated DRAM (HBM or otherwise) becomes par for the course, 14nm is ubiquitous in foundries and DDR4 has reached mass market penetration.

Three to four years.

Cheers

I don't see how this would be a reason to end a hardware generation when it's still raking in boatloads of cash. The general public doesn't give a single fuck about nanometers or the kind of Ram that's in a console. I'm also pretty sure that 99.9% of all PS4 users have zero intention of switching their stock HDDs for faster ones. First order of the day is still to make money. Not to jump the shark because of shiny new hardware development. Then there's of course the problem with visuals having reached a ceiling that's gonna to be really hard punch through without hiring infinite amounts of artists. The perceived difference between the current generation and the last is already way smaller than it's ever been before.

 

[Gubbi]

I don't see how this would be a reason to end a hardware generation when it's still raking in boatloads of cash. The general public doesn't give a single fuck about nanometers or the kind of Ram that's in a console

The general public gives a fuck about performance / $, though. If MS reboots XB 1 in three or four years time with 3-4 times the CPU performance and 6-8 times the GPU performance, do you think it would affect Sony sales ?

Cheers

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The general public gives a fuck about performance / $, though. If MS reboots XB 1 in three or four years time with 3-4 times the CPU performance and 6-8 times the GPU performance, do you think it would affect Sony sales ?

Probably not hardware sales. You'd have a $400 high end new console versus a $150 low end PS4 mopping up the price-conscious market. The people interested in getting a new machine will be those who have already bought their PS4s and for whom PS4 is old and ready to replace.

 

[Gubbi]

Probably not hardware sales. You'd have a $400 high end new console versus a $150 low end PS4 mopping up the price-conscious market. The people interested in getting a new machine will be those who have already bought their PS4s and for whom PS4 is old and ready to replace.

3.7 million PS3s were sold in 2014 and just 2.7 million 360s, that's less than 20-30% of peak sales.

PSone dropped to 30% 12 months after the (global) launch of PS2, Game Cube sales tanked when Wii launched, Xbox was discontinued outright when the 360 launched.

The only exception seems to be PS2. But then, PS 2 sales were out of this world.

Cheers

 

[DieH@rd]

I voted no, mostly because PS4 now has:
- tougher direct competition [xbone is selling slower, but it cannot be ignored]
- tougher indirect competition [gaming is everywhere now, casuals went to mobile and PC has finally organized itself into viable gaming platform]
- expected shorter lifespan on the market, with successor probably coming in 2019/2020
- tougher ability to reduce price below $150-200 [same problem PS3 and x360 had]

But, Sony has one big wild card that could potentially help it to sell dozens of millions of PS4s that they would not sell otherwise - VR.

Without VR and with generation lasting to the late 2020, I can see PS4 reaching 100-110 million sales. But that is not enough to reach PS2, which went down to sub $80 price at the tail end of its life. In any case, it will sell more than PS3, and just that fact will guarantee the arrival of PlayStation 5.

 

[Karamazov]

I dont know if even sony are interested in reaching ps2 levels of sales, since they are profitable day one with each ps4 sold, they dont need to sell hundreds of million consoles. So this gen could be shorter. They could put a ps5 in 4 years without spending too much in R&D, and fully backward compatible.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

3.7 million PS3s were sold in 2014 and just 2.7 million 360s, that's less than 20-30% of peak sales.

Sales were decreasing before PS4 and XB1 were released. http://www.statista.com/statistics/276768/global-unit-sales-of-video-game-consoles/

PSone dropped to 30% 12 months after the (global) launch of PS2, Game Cube sales tanked when Wii launched, Xbox was discontinued outright when the 360 launched.

All of which were replacement platforms indicative of the previous platform getting no love from the parent company any more and reducing value. PS2 had such a strong presence that its value could be trusted, notably for things like SingStar players who wanted a cheap gaming machine - the introduction of PS360 didn't compete with the market for a $99 SingStar or FIFA box.

When Sony release PS5, PS4 sales will suffer. But when rivals release an alternative bleeding-edge platform, the impact on PS4 will be diminished. As long as the platform is good and supported, it'll find a market at its lower price (assuming software is there to support it). Again, people looking for a $150 console aren't suddenly going to change their mind and buy a $400 console. First year sales go to the pioneers who already bought PS4/XB1. Second year sales go to the early adopters who'll have owned an XB1/PS4 for years. These people are willing to pay a premium. The latter year sales are to the price conscious looking for value, who interest in gaming is probably marginal and they could just as happily spend their money on something else besides a cheap, old console.

 

[Sigfried1977]

The general public gives a fuck about performance / $, though. If MS reboots XB 1 in three or four years time with 3-4 times the CPU performance and 6-8 times the GPU performance, do you think it would affect Sony sales ?

Cheers

Or maybe people would rather sit and wait for the "real" next gen while dismissing said reboot as another half measure. Who knows.

 

[DieH@rd]

In three or four years [2018-2019], such HW jump from MS would not be seen as half measure, it would be seen as jump to another generation.

 

[Shortbread]

In three or four years [2018-2019], such HW jump from MS would not be seen as half measure, it would be seen as jump to another generation.

MS wouldn't be that stupid though...

Doing so, would be the equivalent of the original Xbox and PS2 era all over again... except this time around it's PS4.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I voted yes and much of this reflects my confidence in Morpheus. My experiences with VR have been great and it's really a game changer in terms of immersive entertainment. I've never been able to fully articulate how good VR can be, it really just needs to be experienced.

 

[wco81]

VR will be niche.

They'll be lucky if Morpheus is even 20% of the PS4 installed base.