1. The Xbox 360 just looks a lot cheaper to make, especially down the road. They have 35% more transistors, XDR, BR, and a lot of varying format connections (those add up), and WiFi out of the box. The only thing MS has more is the HDD, and maybe Sony will decide to go that route also. All things being equal (MS and Sony willing to lose as much on each console sold) I would be shocked if the consoles were the same price starting spring 2007 (fall 2006 may be a different story... new consoles vs. console with 1 year headstart in games).
2. GCN's price has significantly aided its position in the market. If they had stuck around the same price as the others it would have never been as close as it is with the Xbox 360. When they dropped to $99 it sold very well that first holiday season.
3. While not an issue to every, new consoles are expensive. $300 console, $50 a game, $30 for a new controller. So to get a new console you are already looking at $400 after tax in most US states. While those wanting a console will wait for that one, $400 and $500 are big jumps. As sweet as the PS3 looks I am not sure I could dump $500, especially considering...
4. I like online games. I think there is a new factor to guage in the whole buying preference, namely what do your friends have? In the past it was always cool when my friends got other consoles. But with Xbox it was not... I wanted to play Halo with them!
If all your friends get an Xbox 360 so they can play games you like (Gears, PDz, Halo 3, whatever) and you can get that $50-$100 cheaper that is HUGE, especially for the first 2 years where there is a lot of hardcore gamers and early adopters moving on over. e.g if my friend on the other side of the US gets a Xbox 360 and tells me he wants to play some PDZ (if it is good) or Gears Coop with me I would probably get one.
While this is a small market, every ounce counts. If MS can get out some quality Next Gen titles before fall 2006 and has close to 100 titles out and 2nd gen titles hitting the shelves I think Sony would be hard priced to charge a huge premium for a game machine.
Not that they could not, and not that the PS3 would not sell. But if they are charging more than $50 more after Fall 2006 (fall 2006 in the US they can charge whatever they want and it will sell out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Seriously) I think they are putting themselves in a position where the US race could get really tight.
If I am Sony (I am not... would love to meet Ken though) I would not want to conceed an inch of US soil. So price will be important.
Finally, a console that sells for $100 more means $100 less sales in software. If the guy/gal can save up an extra $100 for a console, the person buying the other console has that same theoretical $100 to buy games. If I am Sony/MS/Nintendo I want (A) My console in the MOST peoples hands and (B) to buy the most software because that makes me money.
So I lose money hand over first on the machine to get marketshare/mindshare/developer confidence, then I make my profit 3 or 4 years down the road as I rake in $125M on first day GTA 5/Halo 4/Mario 128 sales.