I doubt that 1 year have doubled the amount of 360s being played on HDTVs, and the 360 and PS3 were both being marketed as "HD consoles", so I still think that the 360 consoles being played on a SDTV can be representable of the PS3's adopt rate
First of all I think it is important to realise that the companies working on 3D technology right now are not complete idiots. They are planning ahead. They know that whatever new feature they can introduce that entices even a relatively small percentage of TV owners to replace their TV before it actually dies on them brings in a lot more money than banking on the 'natural' replacement cycle. In recent times, there have been a lot of new features that have enthused TV owners to get a new TV, such as:
- Progressive Scan / Digital
- widescreen
- 100/120 hz
- flatness (very important one often underestimated by tech people
)
- Digital Image enhancers and filters
- HD
- (Built-in) Digital Decoders
Before that, we've basically had the b/w to color transition, remote control, support for more channels and SCART type inputs that allowed some kind of linking to your VCR or a little bit better picture quality. Apart from color, nothing really spectacular and spread over a much, much larger range.
Particularly the change to being flat and being HD has helped sell a lot of extra televisions. I don't know if you noticed, but stores have a tonne more models available than they ever did before (I remember!)
Now we're getting Google TV like apps (integrated Youtube) and of course 3D. I think that 3D is going to be considered much more like the b/w (I owned one!) to color transition than any of the other advancements. Sure, it probably won't reach more than 50% mass penetration before it can do without glasses, but it's just starting, and five years is a long time - five years ago almost no-one had an HDtv.
Incidentally I read that PS3's BluRay capability was quoted as the biggest reason to buy a PS3 in the Netherlands among those who don't have one yet at 65%, with the recent price-cut at 63% (The Nielsen Company), and the exclusive games third (and while no specific game was mentioned as killer app, God of War 3 was mentioned most often as an example)