PS3 cost discussion *spin-off

[eastmen]

I was talking more along the lines of the drives you picked to other drives they are selling against. The faster drives provide a price premium and after awhile the slower drives are harder to sell.

Last year for $200 i bought a 6x /2x / 6x w/rw/r .i don't see how a 4x drive can command much money at this point in time with no burning capabilitys. Its notthat the drive costs so little to make. Its that the price point to sell it has dropped and they are trying to recoup the costs as much as possible.

 

[Carl B]

For my part I'm not even trying to pass judgment on whether the total figures are wrong or high or whatever else... just the individual component attributions and the random pooling of ~$80 into the void indicates a process that seems more like darts than anything actually studied. I mean I don't have the original figures handy, but there were some truly absurd figures back on the original at launch. We know the PS3 loses Sony money at a ~10%+ spread per console because Sony themselves told us. iSuppli and others are just trying to fill a curiosity void with junk IMO. I don't fault them per se, but I don't think that I know any more today what the Blu-ray drive in the system costs them than I did before the report came out.

 

[Rangers]

Would that not be closer to $270 or even $280? I believe the retailer margins are in the order of a couple of % on the console itself and I believe they are the distributors so whilst the shipping cost gets taken out of their tally the console itself gets the full margin.

Yes. It's ~280.

 

[Rangers]

Here is a new breakdown by iSupply.

Don´t know the validity of it.
However, what I think is quite interesting is that the price of the RSX is so big.
In this price the DDR3 DRAM is included but still it really stands out in my opinion.

However this rhymes pretty well with the fact that the RSX is in line for the next die shrink and the 45 nm version should be in production at Toshibas factories since some time. If the next PS3 revision replaces both the 512 mbit XDR and DDR3 DRAM with 1 Gbit XDR DRAM I think they could shave off another $20 just on the RSX and the memory chips. It will be very interesting to see when it shows up in the PS3.

Most troubling about that breakdown imo for Sony is that the HDD is already rapidly becoming a big cost factor. Imagine trying to take a $38 chunk out of the 360 Arcade that is selling to retailers for ~$180. Now get it down to $149...

Flash seems to have utterly stopped dropping in cost...I purchased a 16GB USB flash thumb drive from newegg for ~$25 many months ago. A recent check reveals 16GB thumb drive prices are still the same, or have even increased since then.

 

[specwarGP2]

I also think that the iSupply numbers may be high. The 2x Blu-ray drive is estimated to cost Sony $66, but LiteOn 4x Blu-ray drive retailed at similar price (or lower). I also saw refurb'ed Sony 2x Blu-ray drive retailing @ $50, and new ones at $75 (Low volume, OEM price).

There were rumors about PC makers trying to negotiate for Blu-ray OEM price to $50 early this year too.

If they are selling at those wholesale and retail prices, the actual cost has to be lower -- especially for PS3 volume.

drive price seems high to me too. AFAIK, the drive used in PS3 slim isn't used anywhere else, so I'm assuming sony manufactures this drive.

 

[Carl B]

Most troubling about that breakdown imo for Sony is that the HDD is already rapidly becoming a big cost factor. Imagine trying to take a $38 chunk out of the 360 Arcade that is selling to retailers for ~$180. Now get it down to $149...

Flash seems to have utterly stopped dropping in cost...I purchased a 16GB USB flash thumb drive from newegg for ~$25 many months ago. A recent check reveals 16GB thumb drive prices are still the same, or have even increased since then.

Hard drives are sort of a fixed cost - they don't go down so much as the capacity goes up. Certainly as time goes on, as a percentage of total BOM they become a bigger factor, but in the context of are they worth including on an absolute basis against the aggregate usage of DL services... anyway I've spent more than the cost on digital content - in the end just a matter of the average across all users through the life of their ownership and the intangible benefit to the overall PS3 experience the HDD provides.

As for flash costs though, the higher prices have been due to fab idling that took place across the industry to arrest the pricing free fall of last year. And it's worked. But the technology/geometries are still improving, so by next year we should start seeing some price drops again.

 

[eastmen]

Its not just that , Apple bought a crap load of new generation nand for their iphones / itouchs. There are also other area's that have come out of no where like ssd drives to use tons of nand.

I would suspect that after the holidays prices will start dropping again as that capacity and new nand (40nm i think ) starts going into sd cards and other types of flash.

 

[Crossbar]

Also flash is mostl ikely being saved for next gen. 30nm flash will be largely avalible I believe the 64gigs in the ipod touch costs them about $30. It will be many times less in 2012. 64 -128 gigs would be a good entry size for next gen. Would be cheaper and faster than a hardrive most likely and then you can add a hardrive for the more power users.

Sounds highly unlikely, the spot price of just 16 GB flash is about $28 right now.
As pointed out by others the price of flash memory have remained stable for a very long time, exceeding all predictions. However, I´d expect it do start dropping during next year, we´ll find out.

I wonder how much memory the PS3 requires just to make it work. As they already released a 20 GB model I wonder if just 16 GB would be sufficient in an upgradeable entry model that would be the PS3 equivalent of the Arcade. With the current price of flash that would just shave off $10 of the BOM, not much to write home about, which means it will not happen in the near future.

 

[eastmen]

NOt sure if i'm reading your link right but it shows MLC Flash 64Gb 8192Mx8 at daily high 18 and daily low 14 with the average at 15.24.

SLC flash at 32Gb is daily high 33 , low 26 average 27.50

in fact according to your list the MLC 128Gb would cost about 30 on the average and be far cheaper than the hardrive in the ps3 while offering similar space.


am I doing something wrong ?

As for a sub 20 gig model , I don't see it working . Don't most ps3 games require partial installs of 4-8 gigs ? A 16 gig model would fill up rather quickly esp since home is forced download and install with 500megs i think correct ? That would allow only 1 game to be played at once.

i would think a 40 gig is the minimum they could go with now.

 

[Arwin]

As for a sub 20 gig model , I don't see it working . Don't most ps3 games require partial installs of 4-8 gigs ? A 16 gig model would fill up rather quickly esp since home is forced download and install with 500megs i think correct ? That would allow only 1 game to be played at once.

i would think a 40 gig is the minimum they could go with now.

I have a big problem with envisioning the next generation without a significant role for downloadable content, unless we're starting an on-line type service. Combine that with the value of HDD space for optimising reads from disc-media, and lately I was thinking if it would be feasible to use a fast, high capacity 3.5" drive, and instead of releasing two SKUs where one has a HDD and one doesn't, you could maybe better release a model where one has a BD and one doesn't.

 

[Crossbar]

NOt sure if i'm reading your link right but it shows MLC Flash 64Gb 8192Mx8 at daily high 18 and daily low 14 with the average at 15.24.

SLC flash at 32Gb is daily high 33 , low 26 average 27.50

in fact according to your list the MLC 128Gb would cost about 30 on the average and be far cheaper than the hardrive in the ps3 while offering similar space.


am I doing something wrong ?

I assumed that you by talking about "Gigs" meant Giga Bytes which is the common way to express the size of hard drives and the memory i iPods etc.

In the link the sizes are expressed in bits so if you multiply the numbers with 8 you´ll get the right price. And yes single layer flash is indeed expensive.

As for a sub 20 gig model , I don't see it working . Don't most ps3 games require partial installs of 4-8 gigs ? A 16 gig model would fill up rather quickly esp since home is forced download and install with 500megs i think correct ? That would allow only 1 game to be played at once.

i would think a 40 gig is the minimum they could go with now.

Very few games have mandatory installs of 4 GB I don´t think that game installs would be a show stopper for an entry level console with 16 GB of storage. When the owner have installed so many games that he starts to experience a problem he either has to start uninstalling the games he don´t play regulary or bite the bullit and buy a HDD for $50.

Obviously 16 GB would be pretty worthless for DLC but still not as limited as the Arcade and I think the Arcade has proven there is a market for that kind of console if the price is low enough. But at the current price of Flash the 16 GB PS3 would still be to expensive.

 

[Rangers]

I think 32GB is the least Sony would bother with flash-wise, and right now it's ~$65, far too expensive.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Then again, there's people assuming Sony is getting 299 USD per console which isn't the case either. I'm guessing they get somewhere between 199-240 USD per PS3 sold give or take a few dollars.

Distributors sell the PS3 to retailers for a dollar or two less than MSRP. Retailers do not make money on the consoles themselves, they make money on accessory and game sales.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Distributors sell the PS3 to retailers for a dollar or two less than MSRP. Retailers do not make money on the consoles themselves, they make money on accessory and game sales.

Of course, but you still have to account for shipping and handling (to the distributor and then to the retailer), packaging materials and packaging, etc. Warranty coverage costs aren't factored into the iSuppli numbers either.

My numbers are probably a bit low, but I'd say 280 is a bit high. Either way, it still doesn't invalidate my original point, which is that many people are calculating possible cost of PS3 and possible loss per PS3 off the retail price...

Regards,
SB

 

[eastmen]

I have a big problem with envisioning the next generation without a significant role for downloadable content, unless we're starting an on-line type service. Combine that with the value of HDD space for optimising reads from disc-media, and lately I was thinking if it would be feasible to use a fast, high capacity 3.5" drive, and instead of releasing two SKUs where one has a HDD and one doesn't, you could maybe better release a model where one has a BD and one doesn't.

who is saying that. I'm just proposing that the base sku next gen will use flash ram and a decent size 60 gigs of flash would be a 3 times increase in storage over the start of this gen. If 120 gigs is priced decently at the time that would be 6 times the capacity. For DD you can simply have an external drive like the 360 currently has. 250 gig starting. Price it at $100 and be done with it.


Personaly I would rather see a console without an optical drive with a nice 3.5inch 500 gig drive and a fast pool of nand for game caching. But it seems we are stuck with a bluray drive and if you haven't noticed they are very big compared to hardrives and flash ram. You could free alot of room by going to something else .

Distributors sell the PS3 to retailers for a dollar or two less than MSRP. Retailers do not make money on the consoles themselves, they make money on accessory and game sales.

gamestop gets about $15 bucks per ps3 sold.

Even if the ps3 only costs $250 then they are just breaking even.

 

[eastmen]

I assumed that you by talking about "Gigs" meant Giga Bytes which is the common way to express the size of hard drives and the memory i iPods etc.

In the link the sizes are expressed in bits so if you multiply the numbers with 8 you´ll get the right price. And yes single layer flash is indeed expensive.

ah thank you my bad

Very few games have mandatory installs of 4 GB I don´t think that game installs would be a show stopper for an entry level console with 16 GB of storage. When the owner have installed so many games that he starts to experience a problem he either has to start uninstalling the games he don´t play regulary or bite the bullit and buy a HDD for $50.

Obviously 16 GB would be pretty worthless for DLC but still not as limited as the Arcade and I think the Arcade has proven there is a market for that kind of console if the price is low enough. But at the current price of Flash the 16 GB PS3 would still be to expensive.

Assassin's Creed--------(Required) 1.3Gb
Alone in the Dark - Inferno (Required) 3.78GB
Burnout Paradise--------(Required) 0.4GB
Battlefield BC------------(Required) 0.4GB
BioShock-----------------(required) 5.0 GB
Blazing Angels: Squadrons of WWII (unknown) 2.00 GB
Brothers in Arms: Hell's Highway-(required) 2 GB
Civilization Revolution (Required) 0.65GB
Conflict: Denied Ops ----(unknown) 2.60 GB
Call of Duty 3 ------------(unknown) 0.60 GB
Conan--------------------(required) 0.67 GB
Cross Edge---------------(optional) 4.42 GB
Devil May Cry 4--------(Required) 4.83 GB
Dark Sector ------------(Required) 1.2 GB
Dynasty Warriors 6-----(Optional) 1.86GB
Eye of Judgement---------(Required) 1.9GB
Enemy Territory: Quake Wars (required) 4.2 GB
Fallout 3-------------------(required) 5.0 GB
Far Cry 2------------------(required) 3.5 GB
Fight Night Round 4 -------(required) 1.3 GB
Folklore-------------------(Optional) 1.04GB
Fear -----------------------(Required) 2.5GB
Full Auto 2---------------(Optional) 1.7 GB
Fracture -----------------(required) 2 GB
GTA IV-------------------(Required) 3.3 GB
GT5 Prologue-----------(Required) 5.24GB
Genji: Days of Blade---(Optional) 2.14GB
Ghostbusters -----------(Required) 4.0 GB
Haze --------------------(Required) 3.82 GB
Hawx ---------------------(required) 4GB
Hot Shots Golf 5 - ------(Required) 3.61Gb
Heavenly Sword--------(Required) 2.1GB
Infamous ----------------(required) 1.3 GB
Little Big Planet----------(required) 0.6 GB
Legendary----------------(required) 4.5 GB
Lost Planet: Extreme Condition-(required) 4.9 GB
Lost: Via Domus --------(required) 3.00 GB
Medal Of Honor:Airborne-(Required) 1.95 GB
Mercenaries 2: World in Flames (required) 2.7 GB
Mirror's Edge -----------------(required) 0.55 GB
MLB The Show 09 ------------(required) 2.5 GB
Mobile suit gundam: crossfire--(optional) 4.2GB
Mortal Kombat VS DC-------(required) 1.1 GB
MLB 08 The Show--------(required) 2GB
Metal Gear Solid 4--------(required) 4.0GB +(optional) 1.1GB for MG online
Ninja Gaiden Sigma-----(Optional) 3.3Gb
Nascar 09------------------(required) 0.13GB
NBA 09 The Inside --------(required) 2.8 GB
Need for Speed Undercover (Required) 1.0 GB
Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm-(Required) 4.0 GB
Oblivion---------------------(Required) 4.6GB
Orange Box ----------------(Required) 0.6GB
Oblivion GOTY--------------(Required) 5+GB
Overload Raising Hell----(required) 3.33 GB
Prototype -----------------(required) 0.65 GB
Ratchet & Clank Future-(Required) 0.42GB
Resistance: Fall of Man--(Required) 0.22GB
Resistance 2---------------(required) 0.4 GB
Rainbow Six Vegas 2------(required) 3.00GB
Ridge Racer 7 -------------(Optional) 5GB
Saints Row 2 --------------(required) 3.8 GB
Spiderman 3---------------(Required) 2.6Gb
Skate ----------------------- (required) 2.6 GB
Shaun White Snowboarding (Required) 1.0 GB
Splinter Cell Double Agent (unknown) 0.86 GB
Soul Calibur IV-------------(required) 2.6GB
Spider-Man: Web of Shadows-(required) 2.0 GB
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed-(required) 2.7 GB
Street Fighter IV---------------(required) 2.10 GB
Socom Confrontation -------(required) 2.7 GB
Time Crisis 4---------------(Optional) 2.45GB
TNA Impact!----------------(required) 4.75 GB
Top Spin 3------------------(Required) 3.6 GB
Timeshift ---------------(required) 1.02 GB
Turning Point: Fall of Liberty (required) 2.52 GB
The Bourne Conspiracy---(required) 4.7 GB
Tom Clancy's End War ----(required)5 GB
Unreal Tournament 3 -(Optional) 2.4GB
Valkyria Chronicles-----(Optional) 3.3 GB
Virtua Fighter 5--------(Optional) 2.34GB
Virtua Tennis 3----------(Optional) 3.40GB
Vampire Rain: Altered Species (unknown) 3.8 GB
Warhawk w/boosters-(Required) 1.1 GB
Warhawk w/o boosters(Required) 1.25GB
WWE Smackdown! vs. Raw 2008 (required) 2.4 GB
WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2009 (required) 3.2 GB
Yakuza 3-----------------(optional) 5GB


Required or optional the installs add up quick. I'm not sure 20 gigs would work anymore

 

[dobwal]

Of course, but you still have to account for shipping and handling (to the distributor and then to the retailer), packaging materials and packaging, etc. Warranty coverage costs aren't factored into the iSuppli numbers either.

My numbers are probably a bit low, but I'd say 280 is a bit high. Either way, it still doesn't invalidate my original point, which is that many people are calculating possible cost of PS3 and possible loss per PS3 off the retail price...

Regards,
SB

Maybe thats why PS3 prices (after the removal of VAT) in Europe don't lineup with the PS3 prices in the US. Its my understanding that Sony handles in its own distribution in the US and all the big retailers get their PS3s shipped directly from Sony.

 

[corduroygt]

$66 for blu-ray drive is absurd, that's really off. You can buy much faster PC drives from a retailer for that price. I bet it's closer to half that, especially with the cheap slim drive that's supposed to break soon, as some people with old PS3's tell me in their slim envy

iSuppli cost breakdowns should be treated the same way as VGChartz sales estimates, since they both can be very off.

However, the weak $/strong yen kills Sony's profits in the US, they have a much better chance of profiting from the hardware in EU and other countries, maybe they already are selling the PS3 slim at a profit in those regions.

 

[eastmen]

$66 for blu-ray drive is absurd, that's really off. You can buy much faster PC drives from a retailer for that price. I bet it's closer to half that, especially with the cheap slim drive that's supposed to break soon, as some people with old PS3's tell me in their slim envy

iSuppli cost breakdowns should be treated the same way as VGChartz sales estimates, since they both can be very off.

However, the weak $/strong yen kills Sony's profits in the US, they have a much better chance of profiting from the hardware in EU and other countries, maybe they already are selling the PS3 slim at a profit in those regions.

can you show me a slot loaded bluray player for under $66 bucks ?

 

[Crossbar]

can you show me a slot loaded bluray player for under $66 bucks ?

One minute of googling ->

LiteOn iHOS104-06 Blu-Ray Drive (ZipZoomFly)
$50 w/ Free Shipping

It´s not slot loaded but it´s 4x read speed.

So yeah iSupplies BD drive price should be way off, thanks corduroygt for enlightning us.