Clarification : Early Autumn 2010!
I think it was clear enough but some clarification can't hurt.
Also I wouldn't be at all surprised if it slips a lot. I doubt it'll arrive before Thanksgiving, but MS will push like stink to make that deadline. Still, things invariably overrun. This interestingly issues Sony a deadline too. They want motion controls out this year. If they can, they'll beat MS to the 'new interface' market by a year, which could mean significant mindshare. Depending on what Sony do with their tech.
Well so far Ms has been pretty much on schedule for every product than planned to launch. I don't think they will be late.
B.G stated that we are a little over a year away I've no reason to question his claim is a pretty reasonable timeline when we take in account what Ms demoed at E3, the fact that Dev kit were sent during same period and publisher had been adviced one or two months before that.
And the thing comes to PC, Ms has a lot of human work force, it's really serious for them, I don't think they will miss.
Sony promised spring 2010 and that's a pretty constrained time line. We will see what happen, Ms has made public their doubts in this regard.
Anyway Sony could gain mindshare but significant? I don't think so as it becomes more likely that Natal could launch almost simultaneously on 360 and PC the thing will play in another landscape, they are addressing a quiet bigger market than console market (and also will have quiet extra resources to back up the product).
They clearly aiming the device to every body owning a 360 or Pc they possibly intend to extend use of personal computer as media center for really "non computer savy" type of costumer.
I let you imagine the scale advertisement campaign, Ms has something to offer to a very wide audience,something that works on the 360 but also on their precious OS. A revolutionnary interfaced (whether it's true is irrelevant it will be marketed as such).
I would bet on a marketing bliss, Natal launch is important for Ms as a whole that change quiet some things.