Predicting the Xbox-2

[Josiah]

Intel should still be making alot of chips @ 90nm in 2005. Their roadmap shows desktop processors running as fast as 10 ghz by 2005 (Nehalem), and they should have mobile chips running @ over 3 ghz by early 2004 (mobile Prescott), so it's not at all far fetched for XB2 (not that it would need it, with R500 technology )

 

[megadrive0088]

I don't care for spong... but here:


http://spong.com/index.asp?art=5053

Xbox 2 powered by ATi 9th Jun 2003
Link to This Article
http://spong.com/x?art=5053


All change as burnt bridge spells new MS provider.

Senior development sources in the UK have today revealed to us that Microsoft's next generation Xbox will use an ATi graphics chipset, following Microsoft's apparent inability to work cohesively with former provider nVidia.

Not known as the most forgiving company in the world, it seems that Microsoft has simply tired of the bitter arbitration it found itself involved in, following the breakdown of any productive working relationship with nVidia. As you may know, the Xbox's inordinately high production costs saw Microsoft put the squeeze on nVidia over its pricing for the Xbox's graphical heart. nVidia resisted, and no clear solution could be found, leaving both firms no option but to take to the arbitration table.

Although the two came out from negotiations full of smiles and
handshakes, today's news clearly demonstrates that the rift became too big to breach, leaving Microsoft to turn to the only other company able to supply graphics power to Xbox 2's projected output.

Microsoft's camp is understandably quiet on the issue, with Xbox head honcho and universal nice guy Ed Fries today telling us "I can never comment on rumours."

Predictably, nVidia was also quiet, simply saying that it only
comments on such matters by way of official release.

It's worth looking at ATi's deal with Microsoft in perspective for a
moment. At present, Nintendo works with the firm as it supplies the polygon magic known as Flipper that powers GameCube. Indeed, both Nintendo and ATi have stated that they see themselves working on projects together in the future. Although this may seem a little strange, you need to understand the relationship enjoyed between Microsoft and Nintendo.

Both firms have their eyes on Sony's massive market share and as such, an unofficial affiliation has formed between the two. At E3 this year, representatives from Nintendo and Microsoft were seen talking jovially together and there is back-slapping all round when any Xbox or GameCube title takes software sales away from the PlayStation.

But it's more than that. Microsoft and Nintendo in the US are
practically next-door neighbours in Redmond, Washington. They are socially active together and there is no bitterness between the two. As both firms have different goals, Nintendo to continue to release gaming consoles and Microsoft to steal Sony's dream of a media delivery hub for the living room, there is no direct conflict of interest as the market, with a smaller Sony, is big enough to support this.

We'll bring you everything on all next-generation consoles as it
breaks, and remember where you read this first.

 

[chaphack]

 

[chaphack]

If MS uses back the trio tech, we can have a modified PCI-Express architecture?

http://www.intel.com/technology/pciexpress/devnet/

 

[Vince]

Chap, not to burst your buble or anything - but that roadmap is wrong. For starters, there is nobody with 110nm lines. IMHO, they will utilize 130nm untill ~2005 when they go 90nm, with the lithography process being the upperbounds on preformance for the IHVs untill then.

 

[chaphack]

Got that summary from watch impress. The full picture.

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0527/kaigai01l.gif

EDIT: linkified instead of img so as not to mess up the page

 

[chaphack]

The same guy who wrote the Cell PS3 thing.

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0527/kaigai02l.gif

EDIT: changed to link instead of img so as not to messed up the topic.

 

[chaphack]

Some part of a insight view of future GPUs.

- On end of this year 2 hundred million transistor GPU 0.11 mu m

As a process generation, the next 0.13 mu m becomes the 90nm. But, still there is the process which is called extended edition 0.13 mu m before the 90nm. This is the process which the gate length and the like 0.13 mu m furthermore the paragraph, from makes accelerating really small possible. " The 90nm is the following process, but it reaches the point where it can utilize also enhancing 0.13 process. This is suitable to 0.11 mu m " (the ATI, David E Orton デビッド * E * オートン president and the COO). 0.11 As for the process node, mu m there is no road map of the ファウンダリ, but there is many a thing which is called 0.11 mu m.

So assuming it shrinks to linear, in the GPU of this generation being able to load how much transistor? When " the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (the ITRS)" of the road map of semiconductor industry you look at the latest edition 2002update, really as for 0.11 mu m 0.107 mu m (the MPU 1/2 pitch) with from 0.13 mu m it becomes 68% shrinking in the area.

When die/di size and the R300 where the number of transistors is found (1 hundred million 1,000 ten thousand transistors strongly /0.15 mu m approximately 216 squares mm) and the NV30 (1 hundred million 2,500 ten thousand transistor /0.13 mu m/200 square mm weaknesses) it makes standard, if in the die/di of the same 200 square mm classes 0.11 mu m it becomes the calculation which can load approximately 1 hundred million 8,000 ten thousand - 2 hundred million transistors. In other words, the up-to-date R350 (1 hundred million 2,000 ten thousand) and the NV35 (1 hundred million 3,000 ten thousand) of, 5,000 - 8,000 ten thousand it can anticipate the numbers more transistors. Actually, the David B Kirk person of the NVIDIA (the Chief Scientist)" perhaps 2 hundred million (the transistor) it probably is, during 2003 years ", you have notified.

When it is number of transistors, 8 loading the floating point Pixel Shader of 32bit precision, it becomes the calculation where hanging comes. Because of that, you call the present 24bit anti- 32bit, also internal precision dispute of the Pixel Shader, is thought from end of this year there is no next year head. In addition, there are specifications of DirectX 9, " the アダプティブテッセレータ (application type plane surface divided unit)", the DirectX 9 generation GPU which is loaded is thought appears (now, has not loaded other than the Parhelia) with.

In other words, presently as for the GPU which gathers the フィーチャ of DirectX 9 completely it does not exist, but in 0.11 mu m generations finally the possibility of becoming the GPU of the フルフィーチャ is high. In addition, furthermore plus doing, it is expansion of the Shader of DirectX 9, also Programable Shader probably will start supporting 3.0 and the PCI Express x16. Shader 3.0 is thought it is the expansion which glares this process generation.

Also operational frequency improves. When you become this generation, stabilizing, it is thought it can take the 500MHz item.

 

[chaphack]

Another interview with Mr Kirk of Nvidia on PCX and Shader 3.0.

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0613/kaigai01.htm

 

[zurich]

Which is unfortunately in Japanese :?

 

[chaphack]

zurich, you can use babelfish translator for quick direct Engrish.


More nextgen talk from a site called B3D

We've had some discussion turn up on the state of the next generation from both ATI and NVIDIA recently.

First off, even before the actual release of NV35, we're hearing talk of NVIDIA's next generation high end chip, NV40. Geek.com reports that during AMD's recent "Tech Tour 2003" NVIDIA officials stated that their 6 month schedule was still aligned, despite the issues encountered with NV30. They further went to state that NV40 would be out by the end of the year. Xbit-labs further reports (via HardTecs4U) the NV4X line will be further fleshed out with NV41, NV42, NV43 and NV45 over the course of its lifetime and that NV40 is a good candidate to be produced at IBM's fabs.

We've had lots of speculation on the whereabouts of R400 over the past 6 months. At the start of the year ATI's COO, Dave Orton, made references to R400 being ready in the later half of 2003, however things went silent a little while after. Soon rumours appeared suggesting the original R400's technology is being moved to R500 as a H2 '04 part, while a design based on the R300 architecture will be released late '03 / early 04. We've speculated before that ATI's next part will be physically reusing elements of the 130nm based RV350 chip, presumably for this next high end part. Today the Inquirer reports that R420, the new codename for this next part, will be a PCI express based with support for Vertex and Pixel Shaders 3.0. Now, VS/PS 3.0 are not native in the R420 architecture, so this would not seem to be an immediate fit however when we've quizzed ATI over the adoption of PS/VS 3.0 they would respond that they will have it when its needed. Its also been mentioned to us that Stencil performance will certainly take high priority due to a certain game engine being released late this year so there are reasonably good indicators that ATI's next high end part may be more than purely a 130nm silicon based, speed bumped R300 core.

Meanwhile DigiTimes reports that Micron have shipped their first, 110nm fabricated, GDDR3 memory modules to both ATI and NVIDIA. Last year it was announced that ATI had sought to specify GDDR3, which midly differs from GDDR2, with a number of manufacturers - this certainly appeared to ruffle Samsungs feathers a little as they certainly had a vested interest in NVIDIA ill fated NV30 with the use of Samsungs GDDR2 memory (which is now used on ATI's 256MB Radeon 9800 PRO and said to have been picked up by ATI at a very good rate). Given the involvement that ATI have had in the development of GDDR3 it may be the case that ATI will want to adopt it as soon as possible and, if it is sampling now, volume production may be viable by the time of R420's release. NVIDIA may opt for this or go with the next revision of GDDR2 for NV40.

 

[Brimstone]

It's probably to early to assume ATI or Nvidia will be in the X-Box 2. Of course they are both great canidates, but other possibilities exist.

Maybe Microsoft has continued to develop what was once known as Talisman with the former 3do hardware group. Microsoft then follows a model like Power VR where they license their IP to hardware partners. Their closest partner being Intel. This is just speculation so just take that with a lot of salt.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Well, the talk of ATI being in XBox 2 just made it on to CNBC evidently. NVIDIA's stock took a sharp dive and ATI's a sharp rise on the back of it.

 

[Vince]

Well, the talk of ATI being in XBox 2 just made it on to CNBC evidently. NVIDIA's stock took a sharp dive and ATI's a sharp rise on the back of it.

Well, media exposure on that scale - it's sure to bring out the respective parties out of the woodwork to issue strong denials/we can't confirm, et al. But, maybe we'll get an indication.

Dave, have you heard of this 110nm stepping Chap brought up? I've never heard of it, nor seen it on a roadmap to this point. It sounds like an intermidieary step as .22um was beween .25 -> .18.

 

[Brimstone]

ATI is rumored to have had its next generation integrated chipsets selected for use by computer motherboard manufacturers Asutek Computer Inc. , Gigabyte Technology and Microstar International.

Source

I read no mention of an X-Box 2 contract.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Dave, have you heard of this 110nm stepping Chap brought up? I've never heard of it, nor seen it on a roadmap to this point. It sounds like an intermidieary step as .22um was beween .25 -> .18.

A number of memory manufacturers are using it already. Not sure is custmer fabs have it though.

Source

I read no mention of an X-Box 2 contract.

That was an old report. I believe the one I was talking about was on TV. However, a number of sources have picked up on it now

 

[Vince]

That was an old report. I believe the one I was talking about was on TV. However, a number of sources have picked up on it now

This is what Dave was referring to:

ATI, Nvidia diverge after Xbox report
By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:15 PM ET June 13, 2003


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- ATI Technologies shares shot up Friday, while Nvidia shares dropped after a report indicated ATI's graphics chipset would displace Nvidia's product in Microsoft's next-generation Xbox.

ATI Technologies (ATYT: news, chart, profile) added 5.8 percent to $8.40, while Nvidia (NVDA: news, chart, profile) dropped 7.8 percent to $23.47.

A report on Internet game site Spong.com cited Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile) senior development sources in England as saying the company had decided in favor of ATI's graphics chipsets.

Microsoft refused to comment on the report. Nvidia and ATI could not be reached on Friday.

Michael McConnell, an analyst with Pacific Crest Securities, said Nvidia has been distancing itself from Microsoft in recent months. He said that could signal Nvidia won't make a strong play to continue its current relationship with Microsoft.

Analyst Gurinder Kalra with Bear Stearns said Nvidia wanted better financial terms and the company needed to consider the impact on its other product lines if it was to supply the graphics processors for the next Xbox, which isn't expected to hit stores until 2005 or 2006.

A formal announcement from Microsoft regarding component suppliers isn't expected until later this year.

Executives from both Nvidia and ATI made presentations at a Bear Stearns-sponsored investment conference earlier this week.

"Nvidia indicated ... development of the original Xbox led to significant diversion of resources from its core product development," Kalra said in a research note.

Nvidia won the graphics supplier role for the Xbox in 2000 to much fanfare, but uptake of the machine has been relatively slow. Also, there was a crushing inventory build that resulted in large charge-offs, and then there was a contentious arbitration battle.

Xbox represents between 10 percent and 20 percent of Nvidia's total revenue, but analysts said financial terms of the relationship haven't always favored Nvidia.

Nvidia pushes its graphics processors into a variety of markets, including desktop computers, notebook PCs, and workstations.

Overall, Nvidia holds 47 percent of the market share for graphic and imaging chips, while ATI holds 29 percent, according to industry research firm ISuppli.

McConnell said if Nvidia is freed up from the next version of Xbox, it could try and supply its chips to Sony's Playstation, which is the dominant game machine.

"That would be a huge coup for Nvidia," he said.

McConnell said ATI could fare well in a relationship with Microsoft. He suggested ATI might enter a royalty deal with Microsoft instead of shouldering so much inventory and production risk, like Nvidia does currently.

"Microsoft traditionally has never been a great partner or great company to sell into," McConnell said.

Also at issue is ATI's relationship with Nintendo. ATI's Flipper chip supports Nintendo's GameCube -- a concurrent arrangement with Microsoft could make for strange bedfellows.

ATI and Nintendo have said they'd like to keep working together. One analyst said a non-compete agreement should be standard in a situation like this. The analyst, who requested he not be identified, said, however, that "stranger things have happened."
Chris Kraeuter is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

If this is a factual report (as I'm starting to believe for another reason) then more power to CNBC... but using Spong.com as a source? I think today, a day in which spong.com influenced the NASDAQ, is a worse day for Journalism than when Jayson Blair opened his mouth.

 

[jvd]

I still see no reason that ati can't be in b oth systems. Nintendo will want a less expensive , cooler running chip that uses little power and is cheap.

Ms will want a very powerfull chip that pushes the boundrys of 3dtech, is very compliant to the dx spec (which with the nv30 and nv35 nvidia is not) while also using as little power and as little energy as possible.

Ati is also known for getting more out of older micron tech. So ms can use the older more proven tech at launch and slowly switch to the smaller tech to cut cost. A r500 or r550 would be great tech in the xbox 2 and will def give the ps3 (even with an nvidia chip) a run for its money.

I still say ms will go dual gpus .

 

[KnightBreed]

If this is a factual report (as I'm starting to believe for another reason) then more power to CNBC... but using Spong.com as a source? I think today, a day in which spong.com influenced the NASDAQ, is a worse day for Journalism than when Jayson Blair opened his mouth.

Very true. A site as "infamous" as Spong influencing the stock market is definitely a black eye to internet journalism everywhere. And CNBC of all people reporting this as fact. Ridiculous. Personally, I won't believe it until hits the NY Times.

 

[Josiah]

the stock market has been influenced by many silly things in the past, add Spong to the list :]