Predict: top selling console of 2011

[NathansFortune]

Until this year Nintendos figures covered only Spain, Germany, France and the UK.

Now they cover 14 countries ("every major market except Sweden" IIRC from GAf) , so they're much more likely to be almost the whole EU market.

No Scandinavia in general. No Eastern Europe/Russia and no Middle East, no Oz/NZ and no South East Asia (not included in the "Japan" figures either). All of these areas have a large PS3 and Wii lead over 360. I can't give the exact figures because our subscription is private, but I would estimate PS3 sales are around 2.5:1 of 360 sales, and total per month is maybe 70k for PS3.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

No Scandinavia in general. No Eastern Europe/Russia and no Middle East, no Oz/NZ and no South East Asia (not included in the "Japan" figures either). All of these areas have a large PS3 and Wii lead over 360. I can't give the exact figures because our subscription is private, but I would estimate PS3 sales are around 2.5:1 of 360 sales, and total per month is maybe 70k for PS3.

Which would be another 800k for PS3 per annum, and 320k for XB360, or 500k extra for PS3, or perhaps 500k less NA lead overall. Hence we can take annual NPD figures, subtract 500k, and guess a rougher worldwide lead when comparing to other listed figures like Europe.

Looking at Nintendo's figures, would you agree with revision something like:

          TOTAL    US      EU      JP   Rest of World
PS3        6.9    2.42    2.79    1.11   0.63
360        5.8    3.45    1.98    0.09   0.25

That'd be 2.5 million more PS3's worldwide, versus 1 million more 360s sold in NA, which would account for how PS3 has been slowly catching up with 360 over the years with these often argued sales figures!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

No Scandinavia in general. No Eastern Europe/Russia and no Middle East, no Oz/NZ and no South East Asia (not included in the "Japan" figures either). All of these areas have a large PS3 and Wii lead over 360. I can't give the exact figures because our subscription is private, but I would estimate PS3 sales are around 2.5:1 of 360 sales, and total per month is maybe 70k for PS3.

They might have a large lead, but when all those countries (minus Australia which I think is generally lumped in with Europe for many companies financial reports) account for at most 5% of any given companies revenues with it generally being closer to 2.5% or less.

Or to put it another way, NA + EU + Australia + Japan account for over 95% of the console gaming revenue for pretty much all gaming companies that I've looked at. So while having a lead there is nice, it isn't going to greatly influence the overall install base or revenue of either MS or Sony.

Regards,
SB

 

[zed]

All of these areas have a large PS3 and Wii lead over 360.

here in NZ until about 3 months ago, their were more xbox360s sold than ps3's.
I believe here in NZ was the only country where the xbox360 was the best selling console.
Also in oz the difference between xb & ps3 is not large I think the ps3 also only recently overtook the xbox360

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this already, but looks like 360 beat the PS3 quite handily.
Sony released it's fiscal Q3 (calendar Q4) information earlier this week.

PS3 shipped 6.5M units in the quarter putting the total for the calendar year to 14.1M units, Sony also lowered their fiscal year forecast from 15M to 14M units, falling short a bit from the previous year. 360 shipped just under 15M units for the calendar year 2011.

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/11q3_sonypre.pdf

So congrats for everyone who got it right. I got the PS3 number spot on, but underestimated X360 sales by about 1.7M units... Still I wan't to see how much they ship during this quarter to see or not see some evidence of stuffing.

 

[Acert93]

Inspired by the worldwide sales numbers thread, here's opportunity for those of strong opinion to put their money where their mouths are! The likes of NathansFortune and kagemaru and everyone else who reckons they know what's what can stand up and be counted, and get to gloat (or eat crow) when the results are in (whenever we find that out).

How is a private poll a means to allow opinionated people to put their money where their mouth is? You Brits sure have a funny way of using the American language!

 

[TheChefO]

It'll be ironic seeing certain fans claiming MS stuffed the channel with shipped numbers just to meet a number.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

How is a private poll a means to allow opinionated people to put their money where their mouth is? You Brits sure have a funny way of using the American language!

I set it as public but it didn't work.

 

[Acert93]

I set it as public but it didn't work.

Mr. Mod, VB's failure in this situation is catastrophic! This error has failed to maximize crow eating! Nasty buzzards everywhere are rejoicing and millions are deprived rolling their eyes at arm chair sales analysts. Boo-hiss! I am severely disappointed. I just wanted to make sure you know that (No, they did not install a proper sense of humor. I will see if I can get it installed with the next op. No promises).

 

[Rangers]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this already, but looks like 360 beat the PS3 quite handily.
Sony released it's fiscal Q3 (calendar Q4) information earlier this week.

PS3 shipped 6.5M units in the quarter putting the total for the calendar year to 14.1M units, Sony also lowered their fiscal year forecast from 15M to 14M units, falling short a bit from the previous year. 360 shipped just under 15M units for the calendar year 2011.

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/11q3_sonypre.pdf

So congrats for everyone who got it right. I got the PS3 number spot on, but underestimated X360 sales by about 1.7M units... Still I wan't to see how much they ship during this quarter to see or not see some evidence of stuffing.

It looks like PS3 and 360 sold about the same in 2011 WW (according to GAF's analysis of the Euro charts Nintendo released+Media Create+NPD) but 360 shipped .8m or so more.

Could be the channel was short ~1m 360 coming out of 2010+a bit of over-shipment Q4 11. The weak December NPD probably caught them by surprise. Speaking of which I'll be pretty interested i n January's NPD coming up thursday to see if the consoles really are seeing the beginning of an end of life decline or if Dec was more of a blip.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

It looks like PS3 and 360 sold about the same in 2011 WW (according to GAF's analysis of the Euro charts Nintendo released+Media Create+NPD) but 360 shipped .8m or so more.

That is very interesting, however EU+Media Create+NPD leaves quite a bit of units outside. Those three combined was about 11M each and they shipped 14.1M and 14.8M.

Sold through numbers are great, but we never get accurate enough information on them imo. I like the shipped numbers, because they are accurate, self correcting and cover the entire world.

 

[Rangers]

Ship numbers seem to always be a bit over recorded sales, I do not know why.

Also, I think EU+USA+JP are the vast majority, when companies like EA break down software sales, those three regions make up almost all of their sales (well, EA usually does North America, Europe, Asia, and Asia is just a few %). Sure there is more, I just dont think it's a huge amount.

I agree ship numbers are the closest to the elusive worldwide sales numbers that we have. That said there are a lot of vagaries since they dont quite track sales 1:1 as there is significant lag in them.

I was just pointing out it looks to me like PS3 and 360 sold near even in 2011 despite 360 shipping more, but that's still a solid result for 360 no doubt, considering they are non competitive in Japan. It's probably the first time 360 sold on par with PS3 WW I imagine.

 

[function]

Hurrah! Hi-fives and a big shout out to everyone else on team 360; awesome predicterising, dropping future bombs on the poll crowd.

Thought I might have picked the wrong side when Kinect prices stayed so damned high but I should have known Stevie B. (papa Ballmer) wouldn't let us down. I don't know why he gets the credit but ... there you go.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I was just pointing out it looks to me like PS3 and 360 sold near even in 2011 despite 360 shipping more, but that's still a solid result for 360 no doubt, considering they are non competitive in Japan. It's probably the first time 360 sold on par with PS3 WW I imagine.

Yeah and I appreciate that and also find it to be very plausible. Still I would say that those cover "only"maybe 80-85% of total sales. It is at least missing Canada, South-America, I don't know if Australia is lumped into Europe there? and what else?, but yeah I would think that it still gives pretty good picture overall.

2008 was also pretty even for the two. MS shipped 100k units more during the calendar year (10.8M vs 10.7M)

 

[AlphaWolf]

I very much doubt Australia is lumped in with Europe, I think it usually winds up with Asia. I expect Canada, Australia and Mexico would be the large markets missing, however even together those 3 markets would at best account for half of the numbers.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Mr. Mod, VB's failure in this situation is catastrophic!

I knowl It completely failed in its purpose - not to find and applaud those with superb predictive skills, but to mock and ridicule everyone who got it wrong.

Now I can only wave my finger broadly in the forum's direction and go, "booo, you got it wrong," and hope some get suitably slighted.

 

[Arwin]

I knowl It completely failed in its purpose - not to find and applaud those with superb predictive skills, but to mock and ridicule everyone who got it wrong.

Now I can only wave my finger broadly in the forum's direction and go, "booo, you got it wrong," and hope some get suitably slighted.

If you think about it, as a team we got it pretty close to right. The votes together reflect how close the sales were to each other very well and if two people had voted 360 instead of PS3, it would have been pretty much perfect.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

...if two people had voted 360 instead of PS3, it would have been pretty much perfect.

That was the fault of them sissy 'don't know'ers.

 

[function]

I feel a bit sorry for the Wii. One of the Don't Care Bears could have thrown it a sympathy vote or something...

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I feel a bit sorry for the Wii. One of the Don't Care Bears could have thrown it a sympathy vote or something...

I don't think you need to be sorry for the Wii, as it massively outsold the other consoles during the first 3 years of existence.