Predict: top selling console of 2011

Who will sell the most consoles worldwide in calendar 2011?

  • Wii

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • XB360

    Votes: 20 32.3%
  • PS3

    Votes: 22 35.5%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 2 3.2%
  • Don't care

    Votes: 18 29.0%

  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed .
Crap you are right. I've made an error somewhere and had 2.7M for the latest quarter... It seems that when I was browsing the numbers I accidentally got their fiscal 2011 Q3 number mixed with 2011 calendar Q3 number. Thanks for pointing out the error.
 
barring any last minute price cuts of course.

They can easily afford to as I think by now there's a very good margin on Kinect hardware, but I'm thinking they'll save that until after the holiday, because they have an investment that needs return and this holiday is one of the better chances for them to get some.

@Shifty: I'm not sure you understood him correctly. When a group of people ante up for roulette, and few people bet on red and most people bet on black, the money that you then win if you get red is higher.

For his example it's honor, which I agree definitely works that way - I was in Dutch class when I was something like 14, and we were discussing the Dutch word comfort, which is written just like it is in English, but NOT like in French, which is confort. This is very a-typical as Dutch usually follows the French. As I remembered noticing this maybe only a month ago in French class that it was confort and not comfort, I disagreed with the Teacher, and most people in my class were laughing at me for being stubborn about it. My teacher threatened me to look it up, and I said please do, and I ended up being right. The fact that I remember this 23 years later says enough!

The Don't Knows don't win anything, as they haven't ante'd up in the first place. It would be different if they'd bet on zero, but that's not the case here. ;)
 
Voted for PS3. The 360 will do better in US, Euro is quite equal with a slight nod towards PS3 and Japan is PS3. Overall though I agree with other posters that it is so equal that it does not really matter and most likely will be difficult to calculate and also I agree with S_B that MS most likely does not care about sales in Japan and will most likely not make any strategic decisions based on their Japan sales...
 
@Shifty: I'm not sure you understood him correctly. When a group of people ante up for roulette, and few people bet on red and most people bet on black, the money that you then win if you get red is higher.

The Don't Knows don't win anything, as they haven't ante'd up in the first place. It would be different if they'd bet on zero, but that's not the case here. ;)
I see. Very informative. But if the 'I don't know' bet their honour on them not knowing... :mrgreen: (How embarrasing if it turned out they did know)
 
Whichever one we get numbers for. If we get numbers for both, sell-through, or how many consoles end up with final consumers, as it's the actual install base that matters. When we just get mixed numbers from different sources, everyone can have a big ol' argument about it like usual! :mrgreen:
 
Whichever one we get numbers for. If we get numbers for both, sell-through, or how many consoles end up with final consumers, as it's the actual install base that matters. When we just get mixed numbers from different sources, everyone can have a big ol' argument about it like usual! :mrgreen:

Damn you! Well I have different votes for each, lol.
 
So what is the deciding factor,Shifty, sell-in or sell-through?

I'm going to most likely go with Sell In. Both companies "should" have roughly the same reporting practices for Sell In, and that eliminates much of the guesswork that goes into market research companies estimating how much product was actually sold.

And darn you Dr. Evil for getting me to follow and use your incorrect July-Sept. numbers for X360. :) Still that just means I have to adjust things by 0.4 million for the X360. Which then makes it far more reasonable for Sony to have managed 1 million more units (and they certainly came close).

As well Sony came in at just about the upper bounds of my expectations. 3.7 million which would have been far short with the original erroneous numbers I was using but keeps it in range with the corrected numbers.

If either company overshipped for July-Sept. we should see that reflected in the shipped numbers for the holiday quarter. But I'm not really expecting anything on this front.

This does make it a little more likely that PS3 will probably come out ahead in world wide sales (when including Japan) if MS doesn't have a permanent or temporary price reduction for at least some part of the holiday season. My guess if one happens would be on Black Friday where it would have the largest impact. That would also lead into the busiest month of the holiday seasons world wide, December. It also allows them some flexibility. If sales are high enough that they are confident of winning by the time Black Friday arrives, they can forgo price reductions and ride the high margins. If sales are lower than they are comfortable with they can boost sales in the busiest month.

So at the moment, with the corrected numbers, I'd say there's a 50/50 chance for either to come out ahead. But I'll stick with my former prediction (made on erroneous numbers) just because I don't want to be sitting on the fence. :D

Regards,
SB
 
Yeah sorry about that. A horrible mistake on my part, but I've been losing weight and was a little foggy at the top, when I browsed those numbers :). The error altered my predictions a bit also.
 
Alright Shifty, you pulled me in :)

In digging for some numbers, I found a current ~1m lead of xb360 in NA and if we extrapolate numbers from last year to fill in, the lead grows to 2.7 million units ... sold, not shipped into warehouses.

Are we really under the assumption that Japan and Europe will not only make up that 2.7 million unit deficit, but also surpass it?

If we are dealing in shady numbers that aren't really accountable by any non-biased source, then I suppose it's feasible. ;)

Count me in for xb360 over Wii or ps3 for 2011 Sold, not shipped.
 
Alright Shifty, you pulled me in :)

In digging for some numbers, I found a current ~1m lead of xb360 in NA and if we extrapolate numbers from last year to fill in, the lead grows to 2.7 million units ... sold, not shipped into warehouses.

Are we really under the assumption that Japan and Europe will not only make up that 2.7 million unit deficit, but also surpass it?

If we are dealing in shady numbers that aren't really accountable by any non-biased source, then I suppose it's feasible. ;)

Count me in for xb360 over Wii or ps3 for 2011 Sold, not shipped.

Where is the units sold number coming from?
 
TheChefO you do realize the nintendo numbers are from the tracking companies in the US,europe&japan.
NPD is one of the companies, if you see here
360 has sold (not shipped) 1.03 million more than the ps3 in the US, but in europe&japan the ps3 has sold (not shipped) 1.83 million more than the xb360,
hence a 800,000 deficit for the xbox360 vs the ps3

Code:
2011 YTD HARDWARE SALES

          TOTAL     US       EU     JP
PS3          6.3    2.42    2.79    1.11
NDS          5.5    2.67    2.26    0.60
360          5.5    3.45    1.98    0.09
3DS          5.0    1.42    1.48    2.15
WII          4.9    2.36    2.01    0.55
PSP          3.9    0.85    1.40    1.60

- US: NPD, Jan to Sep.
- JP: Media Create, Week 1 to Week 42.
- EU: Nintendo, Week 1 to Week 41.
 
Also extrapolating from last years numbers is pretty inexact, especially now when the prices aren't the same between the two consoles.
 
I don't doubt the Japan nums as xbox doesn't have enough "date" and train simulators, but the EU nums aren't reputable.

As for extrapolating off of last years nums, it is as accurate as any other projection can be. Until we have actual sales data, we won't know. PS3 has a pricecut but they also lost momentum. Also with the bold statement by MS on sales this yr, I expect either a pricdrop which would put xb360 under $200, or a massive marketing push.

Either way should push sales to a similar lead over ps3 as last year.
 
I don't doubt the Japan nums as xbox doesn't have enough "date" and train simulators, but the EU nums aren't reputable.
Why? You think when Nintendo's making its financial report, it'll just look up VGChartz latest guesses?! Clearly they have their sources for exact data points and sensible extrapolations. Quite possibly they pay GfK large sums of money for reports. The accuracy may be unknown as the reporting may only cover major markets, but they are certainly reputable figures and aren't going to be claiming a million more PS3s when the reality is neck and neck or a million XB360's more. They can't be completely dismissed out of hand as you seem to have done - NA has a 1 million lead already, EU doesn't provide any PS3 lead because there's no consolidated reporting, ergo XB360 has currently sold more worldwide. Make a claim for a 25% error say, or some other factor to adjust Nintendo's figures, but don't ignore them completely.
 
I don't doubt the Japan nums as xbox doesn't have enough "date" and train simulators, but the EU nums aren't reputable.

As for extrapolating off of last years nums, it is as accurate as any other projection can be. Until we have actual sales data, we won't know. PS3 has a pricecut but they also lost momentum. Also with the bold statement by MS on sales this yr, I expect either a pricdrop which would put xb360 under $200, or a massive marketing push.

Either way should push sales to a similar lead over ps3 as last year.

That's brilliant. Your extrapolated numbers are wholly reliable but GfK sell-through data is not reputable.

Perspective. Get some.
 
I really didn't imply anything like that. Just that Kinect is something that actively attracts casuals into buying a 360, whereas Move seems to sell nearly exclusively to existing PS3 owners, casual or not.

Oops, somehow missed this reply when I peeked into the thread previously. Thanks for taking the time to write back.

I think you're right for the most part about bringing the 'casuals' on board. Also, the warm and fluffy feeling of something like Kinect allows certain mom and pops to talk themselves into bringing a 360 into the house, even though their kids are going to be playing mostly Halo and CoD on it in the end ;)

I have no idea about the UK marketing, as I don't live there. But the amount of Move supporting software out there is pretty significant.

As you've already touched on, Move appeals mostly to the committed PS3 gamer, the kind of Gamer who will know what new games are coming out with Move controls. My point was specifically about the marketing of Move and whether you feel they are doing enough of it. It seems to me that Sony aren't, leading me to believe that they see no long-term future in it.

Sony may be making good profits on any Move controller and related peripheral they're selling, while having seemingly spent only a fraction of the marketing budget. For the rest, they seem to rely solely on releasing games with Move support as much or even more than standalone titles, and have the marketing for those higher profile games carry Move sales further. I actually think that Microsoft picked up on that and has decided on its 'better with Kinect' marketing initiative based on that realisation.

The "Better with Kinect" box-art was out there before Move was even released to market ;)

As for the rest, I basically agree with you in that Sony don't see enough value in Move to either market it a great deal or develop (or work with other developers to) create Move-specific software.

Looking at Sony's actual delivery this year for Move in terms of high-profile games that don't just have Move features, but can be played front-to-back with it (and rather well in my personal experience), it's a much more impressive list than people may realise. Just some big titles from this year:

- Killzone 3
- Resistance 3
- LittleBigPlanet 2
- Infamous 2: Festival of Blood (and Infamous 2 will be patched shortly)

True. The main problem being that the vast majority of developer support for Move comes from Sony studios. Again, as you have pointed out, that really limits the market for Move and it's all too apparent that Sony is content with that.

The Move dedicated titles ....etc

I think Sony has reached the point where they could make Move support as alternative to one of the alternative analog sticks mandatory. But I am only willing to bet money against that happening.

So that's why I think Kinect is an advantage when it comes to selling systems to new users, and Move not really. As relatively insignificant as even 3D is in that respect, I think it still beats Move for drawing in new owners, as 3D tvs are slowly picking up some steam (again though, completely insignificant numbers imho).

Again, we pretty much agree here.

All of which begs the question.... why did Sony release Move to the market? Was it a rush job from the existing tech thrown out in the market essentially as a spoiler for Natal? Did Sony originally plan for the PS3 to become the WiiHD and then gave up on the idea when they saw Nintendo's machine sales rapidly decline? Or is it just a case that they needed to release something to freshen up the PS3, but that the powers that be really don't believe in it and therefore are willing to let it just flounder in the marketplace?
 
Why? You think when Nintendo's making its financial report, it'll just look up VGChartz latest guesses?! Clearly they have their sources for exact data points and sensible extrapolations. Quite possibly they pay GfK large sums of money for reports. The accuracy may be unknown as the reporting may only cover major markets, but they are certainly reputable figures and aren't going to be claiming a million more PS3s when the reality is neck and neck or a million XB360's more. They can't be completely dismissed out of hand as you seem to have done - NA has a 1 million lead already, EU doesn't provide any PS3 lead because there's no consolidated reporting, ergo XB360 has currently sold more worldwide. Make a claim for a 25% error say, or some other factor to adjust Nintendo's figures, but don't ignore them completely.


Until this year Nintendos figures covered only Spain, Germany, France and the UK.

Now they cover 14 countries ("every major market except Sweden" IIRC from GAf) , so they're much more likely to be almost the whole EU market.
 
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