Predict: top selling console of 2011

Who will sell the most consoles worldwide in calendar 2011?

  • Wii

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • XB360

    Votes: 20 32.3%
  • PS3

    Votes: 22 35.5%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 2 3.2%
  • Don't care

    Votes: 18 29.0%

  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed .

Shifty Geezer

uber-Troll!
Moderator
Legend
Inspired by the worldwide sales numbers thread, here's opportunity for those of strong opinion to put their money where their mouths are! The likes of NathansFortune and kagemaru and everyone else who reckons they know what's what can stand up and be counted, and get to gloat (or eat crow) when the results are in (whenever we find that out).
 
I voted PS3, but it's going to be close though, as traditionally 360 and Wii seem to get a much bigger boost from the last few months in the year, and I think among casuals Kinect still holds a lot more sway than Move, so the holiday boost could be significant, even to the point of catching up or even overtaking. So above all, I'm going to predict that it will be close and I wouldn't surprise if 360 even benefits from a weakening Wii ...
 
Inspired by the worldwide sales numbers thread, here's opportunity for those of strong opinion to put their money where their mouths are! The likes of NathansFortune and kagemaru and everyone else who reckons they know what's what can stand up and be counted, and get to gloat (or eat crow) when the results are in (whenever we find that out).

I know I was called out here, but I can still pick Don't care right since I really don't care. :p
 
Oh no kagemaru, that would just be being yeller after posting in the other thread!

It's a difficult choice. If MS attack the market's weak spot with a Wii priced Kinect package they'll cause massive damage, but if they need to keep up Xbox margins to make waging the phone war look less costly than it is they may be edged out by Sony.*

I'm voting 360. Don't let me down with a poxy price cut and rubbish Kinect bundles MS!

*While still being massively more profitable. But it's not the profits that count to forum types, it's sales figures and metacritic. That's just the way it is.
 
Poo. It's not showing names, and now I just tried to change that (unclick public in the hopes to make it public again) and now can't. Now sissies who were wrong can hide behind anonymity!

I know I was called out here, but I can still pick Don't care right since I really don't care. :p
Anyone who makes a speculation cares enough to have a guess, so I say no, you can't back out now. :devilish: The 'don't care' option is for cowards like me who'd never speculate on sales figures (unless it's a shoe-in like PS2 or Wii's early years), even when pressured by the likes of TheChefO. :mrgreen:
 
I voted PS3, but it's going to be close though, as traditionally 360 and Wii seem to get a much bigger boost from the last few months in the year, and I think among casuals Kinect still holds a lot more sway than Move, so the holiday boost could be significant, even to the point of catching up or even overtaking. So above all, I'm going to predict that it will be close and I wouldn't surprise if 360 even benefits from a weakening Wii ...

I voted 360, but agree with your comments. I expect the difference to be marginal.

<edit> and the MS E3 claim makes me think they have a significant holiday push planned.
 
....and I think among casuals Kinect still holds a lot more sway than Move....

I voted "don't care" but this part of your comment intriqued me. Not so much the Kinect part, but in that you seem to be implying that Move has at least some sway amongst the casuals and I could be reading more into it than is there, but a further implication that Move holds some sway with the hardcore.

Looking at it from solely a UK perspective, it appears to me that Sony have long dropped any pretence of believing in Move. Sure, you hear the occasional accouncement on something like the next Bioshock game. And yes, there are still (dust covered) Move display units in game shops. But generally speaking, I don't see Sony showing any care for the peripheral, meaning that in reality it holds close to zero sway in any potential PS3 owners decision.

I'm interested to see if that's just my opinion, or maybe that Sony are choosing to push Move in more receptive markets than the UK? As a big supporter and promoter of Move, I'd like to see how you view the Sony stance from a more educated standpoint.
 
It's a difficult choice. If MS attack the market's weak spot with a Wii priced Kinect package they'll cause massive damage, but if they need to keep up Xbox margins to make waging the phone war look less costly than it is they may be edged out by Sony.*
E3 2005 reference for the win. I expect it will all hinge on the real-time weapon change...
 
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Voted don't care. I sold my xbox360 and ps3 almost year ago. Don't feel there is enough New gaming experiences out there making it worthwhile for me to rebuy into this gen. I'm super tired of playing the same old with fancier graphics.
 
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UK has campaign that if one buys nokia lumia phone he/she gets a xbox360 for free. That's pretty good push for both xbox and wp.

edit: http://www.phonesreview.co.uk/2011/10/27/nokia-lumia-800-free-xbox-360-offered-by-orange-uk/

Sony has had similar promotions to that with the xperia play and a free PS3, I don't think they've had great impact. I was thinking something much more substantial, such as a huge marketing push and sale, discount or at least new better value bundle.
 
I'd like to know the 3rd quarter shipped number from Sony and whether there is any chance of a MS pricecut, it is getting pretty late for a cut so if I have to make a call now, I have to assume it's not coming.

I think PS3 edges it, but not with as big of a margin they did in thee last two years. There is always the option of channel stuffing etc. but if we wait till the shipped figures from the last quarter of this year are released, I expect the PS3 to have shipped 14.1M units and the 360 about 13.1M units during the calendar year.

Still more unknows at this point than I'd like, but I'll go with that.
 
I expect it will all hinge on the real-time weapon change...

Is that when MS switch focus to 4GB Kinect to fight the Christmas boss, and flip it over exposing the family gamers?

For the sake of my prediction, I hope so!
 
I voted "don't care" but this part of your comment intriqued me. Not so much the Kinect part, but in that you seem to be implying that Move has at least some sway amongst the casuals and I could be reading more into it than is there, but a further implication that Move holds some sway with the hardcore.

I really didn't imply anything like that. Just that Kinect is something that actively attracts casuals into buying a 360, whereas Move seems to sell nearly exclusively to existing PS3 owners, casual or not.

Looking at it from solely a UK perspective, it appears to me that Sony have long dropped any pretence of believing in Move. Sure, you hear the occasional accouncement on something like the next Bioshock game.

I have no idea about the UK marketing, as I don't live there. But the amount of Move supporting software out there is pretty significant.

And yes, there are still (dust covered) Move display units in game shops. But generally speaking, I don't see Sony showing any care for the peripheral, meaning that in reality it holds close to zero sway in any potential PS3 owners decision.

I'm interested to see if that's just my opinion, or maybe that Sony are choosing to push Move in more receptive markets than the UK? As a big supporter and promoter of Move, I'd like to see how you view the Sony stance from a more educated standpoint.

I'm really not sure, but as a nice echo of bkillian's comment, Sony may be making good profits on any Move controller and related peripheral they're selling, while having seemingly spent only a fraction of the marketing budget. For the rest, they seem to rely solely on releasing games with Move support as much or even more than standalone titles, and have the marketing for those higher profile games carry Move sales further. I actually think that Microsoft picked up on that and has decided on its 'better with Kinect' marketing initiative based on that realisation.

Looking at Sony's actual delivery this year for Move in terms of high-profile games that don't just have Move features, but can be played front-to-back with it (and rather well in my personal experience), it's a much more impressive list than people may realise. Just some big titles from this year:

- Killzone 3
- Resistance 3
- LittleBigPlanet 2
- Infamous 2: Festival of Blood (and Infamous 2 will be patched shortly)

The Move dedicated titles almost pale by comparison. In fact, this is where I think Sony is dropping the ball significantly, and if they want 'casuals' to buy a PS3 just because of Move, they're still way behind the curve. Even with the titles that integrate Move optionally, they are not doing a great job. For LBP2 they had a good chance, but they haven't optimised the experience enough there yet either. If you have Move, you should probably get a completely different user interface, automatic filters for dedicated Move user levels, etc.

So if you want to ask that hardcore player question, then let's put it this way - if I were forced to choose between playing only games with Move, or only games with Kinect, and have to throw away my Dualshock (assuming I wouldn't be using it as a stand-in Navigation controller as I've been doing so far), I would not hesitate. In fact, if I could keep playing my driving games using a wheel, it wouldn't be that far off from what I'm doing already. But I'm not an average user, and they'd need to support the Modern Warware 3 and Battlefield 3s of this world to have this apply more generally (and even then only a relative fraction would probably prefer to play with Move after all that DualShock training). Infamous 2 controls so well, I think Sony has reached the point where they could make Move support as alternative to one of the alternative analog sticks mandatory. But I am only willing to bet money against that happening.

So that's why I think Kinect is an advantage when it comes to selling systems to new users, and Move not really. As relatively insignificant as even 3D is in that respect, I think it still beats Move for drawing in new owners, as 3D tvs are slowly picking up some steam (again though, completely insignificant numbers imho).
 
I've seen Kinect ads. I dno't think I've ever seen a Move ad since launch last year. Sony certainly aren't pushing Move to new customers. Didn't they actually say they weren't going to, and would let the platform grow (or die off) on its own?
 
Inspired by the worldwide sales numbers thread, here's opportunity for those of strong opinion to put their money where their mouths are! The likes of NathansFortune and kagemaru and everyone else who reckons they know what's what can stand up and be counted, and get to gloat (or eat crow) when the results are in (whenever we find that out).

There aren't any worldwide sales numbers. So....

When we get Nintendo charts to estimate Western Europe, then we can do America+Japan+Western Europe, and that's the bulk of the market but it's still not the whole world.

And I might be wrong but I think we only get the Nintendo charts through the first 3/4 of the year, if at all. Dont think I've seen the crucial holiday weeks covered by Nintendo.
 
Ranger makes a good point, how will we know which company sells the most after the holiday period when we usually don't find out this info in the financial reports?
 
Ranger makes a good point, how will we know which company sells the most after the holiday period when we usually don't find out this info in the financial reports?

The info is always in the conference call so end of January you will know. It is also not hard to imagine either of the companies making a pronouncement of "winner!" sooner than that.

I would caution everyone to remember that Nintendo has traditionally a more massive uptake than the other platform holders for calendar q4 and they are not THAT far behind right now.


Shipped numbers in the financial reports are imo the numbers we should be using.

No, that's sell-in, the "winning" number should be sell-through.
 
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